Jacksonville
Atlantic Sun
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -7.3 #285
Expected Predictive Rating -7.4 #284
Pace 62.0 #344
Improvement +3.0 #62

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #302 D+ C- C- D+ C
Defense #251 D- B C- D C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #166 1.07 #280 -1.5 #236
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #184 0.76 #165 -0.1 #176
Three Pointers 41% #183 0.95 #261 -1.4 #230
1st FG Attempt 0.96 #263 -2.9 #263
Freethrows 0.27 #279 71% #229 0.19 #287
Second Chance 28.8% #234 1.03 #205 0.30 #226
Turnovers 17.2% #235
Total Offense -4.8 #302

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #65 1.29 #331 -5.4 #346
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #172 0.76 #178 -0.1 #189
Three Pointers 36% #299 1.18 #350 -0.6 #206
1st FG Attempt 1.14 #343 -6.1 #343
Freethrows 0.35 #311 72% #196 0.25 #305
Second Chance 28.5% #105 0.94 #50 0.27 #59
Turnovers 15.4% #241
Total Defense -2.5 #251

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.2% #182 0.6% #220
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -5.9% #280 11.2% #346
Possession Length 19.5 #349 17.4 #193
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 #316 0.15 #135
Improvement +1.4 #109 +1.5 #89

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.9% 3.7% 2.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 2.5% 5.3% 0.8%
.500 or above in Conference 34.9% 54.3% 23.8%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 4.8% 1.8% 6.5%
First Four2.4% 2.8% 2.1%
First Round1.8% 2.3% 1.5%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Lipscomb (Home) - 36.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 31 - 71 - 12
Quad 411 - 711 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 40 @Miami (FL) L 69 - 86 3% -9  0 - 1 -1 +1 B- D C -1 C F A+
 Tue, Nov 11 96 @High Point L 64 - 85 8% -11  0 - 2 -12 -7 F D+ C- -6 B+ A- F
 Sat, Nov 15 353 @VMI W 69 - 67 62% +3  1 - 2 -8 -7 C- B F -2 D- F A+
 Tue, Nov 18 86 @George Mason L 57 - 79 7% -12  1 - 3 -12 -8 D+ C- F -6 F A+ A+
 Mon, Nov 24 248 Bethune-Cookman W 69 - 64 41% -2  2 - 3 +0 -0 C+ D C+ +1 C+ A- D-
 Tue, Nov 25 123 Pacific L 53 - 68 18% -7  2 - 4 -13 -10 F F+ B -5 B- B- D
 Tue, Dec 2 315 Florida A&M W 85 - 82 OT 69% -0  3 - 4 -9 +4 C- C A+ -13 F B+ B-
 Sat, Dec 6 190 @Florida International L 65 - 88 22% -18  3 - 5 -22 -5 F+ C+ F -17 F A C-
 Sun, Dec 14 30 @Texas A&M L 75 - 112 2% -24  3 - 6 -19 +4 B C- F -20 F F C
 Wed, Dec 17 315 @Florida A&M L 65 - 72 46% -9  3 - 7 -13 -4 C F D+ -10 F A+ F
 Mon, Dec 22 105 @Florida St. L 63 - 87 9% -18  3 - 8 -17 -1 D+ F A+ -17 D- C D
 Thu, Jan 1 169 @Lipscomb L 57 - 76 18% -9  3 - 9 0 - 1 -17 -3 C- C F -17 F A+ F
 Sat, Jan 3 172 @Austin Peay L 68 - 71 19% -2  3 - 10 0 - 2 -1 -1 B B+ F -0 B- A+ F+
 Thu, Jan 8 199 Queens L 51 - 77 44% -15  3 - 11 0 - 3 -32 -25 F C F -8 F A+ C+
 Sat, Jan 10 328 West Georgia W 75 - 43 72% +20  4 - 11 1 - 3 +19 +9 A F A+ +16 B+ A+ A+
 Thu, Jan 15 219 @Central Arkansas L 60 - 62 26% +5  4 - 12 1 - 4 -2 -2 F C+ A+ -1 D A B-
 Sat, Jan 17 330 @North Alabama W 90 - 68 51% +13  5 - 12 2 - 4 +14 +16 B A+ C- -1 C B- D
 Thu, Jan 22 303 Bellarmine L 70 - 77 65% -1  5 - 13 2 - 5 -18 -6 F C- B- -13 F D+ C+
 Sat, Jan 24 263 Eastern Kentucky W 81 - 76 OT 55% -3  6 - 13 3 - 5 -4 +2 C A- F -6 D D- A-
 Thu, Jan 29 169 Lipscomb L 68 - 72 36%
 Sat, Jan 31 232 Florida Gulf Coast L 71 - 72 49%
 Thu, Feb 5 199 @Queens L 70 - 78 24%
 Sat, Feb 7 328 @West Georgia W 71 - 70 50%
 Thu, Feb 12 329 @Stetson W 70 - 69 51%
 Sat, Feb 14 348 North Florida W 82 - 74 77%
 Thu, Feb 19 232 @Florida Gulf Coast L 69 - 75 28%
 Sat, Feb 21 172 Austin Peay L 67 - 70 38%
 Thu, Feb 26 329 Stetson W 72 - 66 72%
 Sat, Feb 28 348 @North Florida W 79 - 77 57%
Totals 11 - 18 8 - 10 -7 -5 D+ C- C- -2 D- B C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.0 1.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 2.6 2.3 0.3 6.1 4th
5th 0.1 2.9 9.7 7.6 1.5 0.1 21.9 5th
6th 0.0 2.0 10.1 6.8 0.8 19.7 6th
7th 0.3 7.1 7.7 0.9 15.9 7th
8th 0.1 2.9 7.9 1.6 0.0 12.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.7 5.9 2.9 0.1 9.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 2.6 4.2 0.4 0.0 7.3 10th
11th 0.1 0.9 2.6 0.8 0.0 4.4 11th
12th 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.0 1.4 12th
Total 0.3 1.6 6.5 14.0 20.3 22.4 18.2 11.2 4.3 1.1 0.1 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 11.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.1% 3.8% 3.8% 14.0 0.0 0.1
12-6 1.1% 8.3% 8.3% 15.4 0.1 0.0 1.0
11-7 4.3% 7.2% 7.2% 15.7 0.1 0.2 4.0
10-8 11.2% 5.1% 5.1% 16.0 0.0 0.6 10.6
9-9 18.2% 4.8% 4.8% 16.0 0.9 17.3
8-10 22.4% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.0 0.6 21.8
7-11 20.3% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.3 20.0
6-12 14.0% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.2 13.8
5-13 6.5% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 6.5
4-14 1.6% 1.6
3-15 0.3% 0.3
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 2.9% 2.9% 0.0% 15.9 97.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%