Jacksonville
Atlantic Sun
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-7.9#305
Expected Predictive Rating-2.9#214
Pace67.0#251
Improvement-2.5#326

Offense
Total Offense-4.8#301
First Shot-3.5#275
After Offensive Rebound-1.3#267
Layup/Dunks+1.2#129
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#266
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#171
Freethrows-3.3#335
Improvement+0.6#123

Defense
Total Defense-3.1#276
First Shot-4.2#314
After Offensive Rebounds+1.1#107
Layups/Dunks-3.4#296
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#129
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#210
Freethrows-1.1#257
Improvement-3.1#350
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.1% 2.6% 1.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.6 15.8
.500 or above 13.3% 19.2% 6.7%
.500 or above in Conference 35.1% 39.8% 29.9%
Conference Champion 1.6% 2.1% 1.1%
Last Place in Conference 11.1% 8.9% 13.4%
First Four1.0% 1.1% 0.9%
First Round1.5% 1.9% 1.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Florida A&M (Away) - 52.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 31 - 71 - 12
Quad 410 - 712 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 33 @Miami (FL) L 69-86 2%     0 - 1 -0.8 +1.5 -1.4
  Tue, Nov 11 105 @High Point L 64-85 9%     0 - 2 -14.0 -7.4 -6.9
  Sat, Nov 15 331 @VMI W 69-67 48%     1 - 2 -5.4 -5.0 -0.3
  Tue, Nov 18 77 @George Mason L 57-79 5%     1 - 3 -11.3 -6.2 -6.7
  Mon, Nov 24 227 Bethune-Cookman W 69-64 35%     2 - 3 +1.1 +0.0 +1.6
  Tue, Nov 25 128 Pacific L 53-68 17%     2 - 4 -12.9 -10.2 -5.0
  Tue, Dec 2 343 Florida A&M W 85-82 OT 74%     3 - 4 -11.5 +1.4 -13.1
  Sat, Dec 6 187 @Florida International L 65-88 19%     3 - 5 -21.8 -5.2 -17.1
  Sun, Dec 14 45 @Texas A&M L 75-112 3%     3 - 6 -22.7 +1.9 -21.4
  Wed, Dec 17 343 @Florida A&M W 72-71 52%    
  Mon, Dec 22 104 @Florida St. L 70-85 8%    
  Thu, Jan 1 142 @Lipscomb L 66-78 13%    
  Sat, Jan 3 192 @Austin Peay L 65-74 21%    
  Thu, Jan 8 202 Queens L 76-78 42%    
  Sat, Jan 10 314 West Georgia W 74-70 65%    
  Thu, Jan 15 283 @Central Arkansas L 69-73 34%    
  Sat, Jan 17 195 @North Alabama L 65-74 22%    
  Thu, Jan 22 295 Bellarmine W 74-72 59%    
  Sat, Jan 24 260 Eastern Kentucky W 74-73 52%    
  Thu, Jan 29 142 Lipscomb L 69-75 30%    
  Sat, Jan 31 185 Florida Gulf Coast L 72-75 38%    
  Thu, Feb 5 202 @Queens L 73-81 23%    
  Sat, Feb 7 314 @West Georgia L 71-73 43%    
  Thu, Feb 12 347 @Stetson W 72-71 53%    
  Sat, Feb 14 344 North Florida W 81-74 72%    
  Thu, Feb 19 185 @Florida Gulf Coast L 69-78 20%    
  Sat, Feb 21 192 Austin Peay L 68-71 40%    
  Thu, Feb 26 347 Stetson W 75-68 73%    
  Sat, Feb 28 344 @North Florida W 78-77 52%    
Projected Record 11 - 18 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 1.0 1.0 0.4 0.1 2.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 1.9 1.7 0.4 0.0 0.0 4.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 2.5 2.7 0.8 0.0 6.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 2.7 4.0 1.3 0.1 0.0 8.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.7 5.3 2.0 0.1 10.4 6th
7th 0.2 2.6 6.1 3.2 0.4 0.0 12.5 7th
8th 0.2 2.3 6.1 4.4 0.5 0.0 13.5 8th
9th 0.2 1.9 5.5 4.4 0.8 0.0 12.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.6 4.6 4.3 1.0 0.0 11.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 1.4 3.6 3.0 0.8 0.1 9.1 11th
12th 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.2 1.6 0.5 0.0 6.1 12th
Total 0.1 0.5 1.6 3.7 7.0 10.2 13.1 14.5 14.3 12.3 9.3 6.4 3.8 2.0 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
15-3 78.0% 0.2    0.1 0.1
14-4 57.0% 0.5    0.3 0.2 0.1
13-5 25.2% 0.5    0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 5.9% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.6% 1.6 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.1% 22.2% 22.2% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-3 0.3% 19.5% 19.5% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
14-4 0.9% 13.0% 13.0% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.8
13-5 2.0% 9.6% 9.6% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.8
12-6 3.8% 7.2% 7.2% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 3.5
11-7 6.4% 6.0% 6.0% 15.8 0.1 0.3 6.0
10-8 9.3% 3.9% 3.9% 15.9 0.1 0.3 9.0
9-9 12.3% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.0 0.3 12.1
8-10 14.3% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.2 14.2
7-11 14.5% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 14.4
6-12 13.1% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 13.0
5-13 10.2% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 10.1
4-14 7.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 7.0
3-15 3.7% 3.7
2-16 1.6% 1.6
1-17 0.5% 0.5
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 2.1% 2.1% 0.0% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.5 97.9 0.0%