Western Kentucky
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -0.5 #166
Expected Predictive Rating -0.4 #170
Pace 74.1 #53
Improvement -4.4 #337

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #211 D- C+ B C C
Defense #132 C B+ C+ D B

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #144 0.91 #362 -4.2 #319
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #190 0.72 #223 -0.5 #207
Three Pointers 40% #195 0.99 #218 -1.0 #217
1st FG Attempt 0.90 #334 -5.8 #335
Freethrows 0.31 #175 73% #169 0.22 #166
Second Chance 34.3% #78 0.98 #256 0.34 #135
Turnovers 14.2% #51
Total Offense -1.6 #211

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 31% #338 1.08 #85 +5.6 #30
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #94 0.82 #286 -1.6 #304
Three Pointers 46% #48 1.11 #300 -4.9 #343
1st FG Attempt 1.04 #204 -0.9 #204
Freethrows 0.37 #340 69% #32 0.25 #314
Second Chance 27.6% #82 0.89 #21 0.25 #29
Turnovers 17.4% #115
Total Defense +1.1 #132

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.4% #167 -1.7% #53
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -11.7% #343 3.6% #249
Possession Length 16.7 #115 17.2 #158
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 #168 0.12 #39
Improvement -4.2 #351 -0.2 #209

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.9% 6.8% 4.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.0 13.7 14.2
.500 or above 49.7% 70.9% 39.2%
.500 or above in Conference 45.9% 67.9% 34.9%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 2.3% 0.5% 3.1%
First Four0.2% 0.1% 0.2%
First Round4.9% 6.8% 4.0%
Second Round0.2% 0.4% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Middle Tennessee (Away) - 33.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 21 - 41 - 6
Quad 34 - 85 - 14
Quad 410 - 215 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 338 Tennessee Tech W 82 - 70 90% +9  1 - 0 -2 -4 F B- C+ +0 D D A+
 Mon, Nov 10 263 @Eastern Kentucky W 87 - 79 58% -0  2 - 0 +5 +4 D+ F+ A+ +1 F A+ B-
 Sun, Nov 16 229 Tennessee St. W 95 - 82 73% +9  3 - 0 +6 +10 C- B+ A+ -5 D- A+ B-
 Wed, Nov 26 12 Vanderbilt L 78 - 83 4% -6  3 - 1 +14 +3 B D+ D +11 B+ A+ A+
 Thu, Nov 27 67 South Florida L 91 - 97 OT 20% +5  3 - 2 +2 +0 C C+ D+ +4 B- A+ B-
 Fri, Nov 28 99 Wichita St. W 75 - 70 29% +1  4 - 2 +10 +12 B- C A -2 C+ A C-
 Sat, Dec 6 267 Evansville W 80 - 79 79% +3  5 - 2 -8 +2 C D D -10 F+ D+ C+
 Wed, Dec 10 168 @Marshall L 61 - 77 39% -7  5 - 3 -14 -10 F+ F C -4 B C+ F
 Fri, Dec 19 70 Tulsa L 81 - 82 30% +3  5 - 4 +4 +5 C- B- A+ -1 C A+ D+
 Mon, Dec 29 184 @Jacksonville St. L 67 - 78 43% -12  5 - 5 0 - 1 -10 -3 F C- C -7 F A+ A+
 Fri, Jan 2 115 Sam Houston St. W 102 - 91 47% -1  6 - 5 1 - 1 +11 +19 D+ A+ C+ -9 C C+ D+
 Sun, Jan 4 209 Louisiana Tech W 66 - 61 70% +7  7 - 5 2 - 1 -1 -2 F C+ B +1 B+ C D-
 Thu, Jan 8 154 @New Mexico St. L 64 - 80 36% -16  7 - 6 2 - 2 -13 -5 F B+ A+ -8 C D- B-
 Sat, Jan 10 266 @UTEP W 68 - 56 59% +0  8 - 6 3 - 2 +9 -3 F D- A- +12 A- A+ A+
 Wed, Jan 14 183 Missouri St. W 87 - 72 66% +6  9 - 6 4 - 2 +10 +17 B- A+ A+ -6 B- D- C+
 Sat, Jan 17 153 Kennesaw St. L 65 - 81 58% -5  9 - 7 4 - 3 -19 -12 F F A- -6 D+ A+ C-
 Wed, Jan 21 94 Liberty L 69 - 76 38% -5  9 - 8 4 - 4 -4 +1 C- C+ D -6 D+ C B+
 Sat, Jan 24 115 @Sam Houston St. L 58 - 73 26% -14  9 - 9 4 - 5 -9 -9 F B+ F +0 B F+ F+
 Wed, Jan 28 153 @Kennesaw St. L 69 - 72 35% +0  9 - 10 4 - 6 +0 -4 F B B+ +5 C A- B
 Sat, Jan 31 142 @Middle Tennessee L 70 - 75 33%
 Thu, Feb 5 184 Jacksonville St. W 73 - 69 66%
 Sat, Feb 7 190 Florida International W 82 - 78 66%
 Sat, Feb 14 142 Middle Tennessee W 73 - 72 56%
 Wed, Feb 18 278 @Delaware W 71 - 68 62%
 Sat, Feb 21 94 @Liberty L 70 - 79 20%
 Thu, Feb 26 154 New Mexico St. W 76 - 74 59%
 Sat, Feb 28 266 UTEP W 75 - 67 78%
 Thu, Mar 5 183 @Missouri St. L 71 - 73 43%
 Sat, Mar 7 190 @Florida International L 79 - 81 45%
Totals 14 - 15 9 - 11 -1 -2 D- C+ B +1 C B+ C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.1 0.9 1.0 0.2 2.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.8 3.3 1.0 0.0 6.2 3rd
4th 0.0 1.5 5.6 2.5 0.1 9.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 6.2 5.7 0.6 0.0 13.0 5th
6th 0.2 4.4 9.0 1.8 0.0 15.4 6th
7th 0.1 2.5 10.2 3.9 0.2 0.0 16.8 7th
8th 0.0 1.0 7.5 5.6 0.5 14.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 4.3 5.8 0.9 11.4 9th
10th 0.1 1.8 3.8 1.2 0.0 7.0 10th
11th 0.1 0.6 1.6 0.7 0.0 3.0 11th
12th 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.6 12th
Total 0.2 1.0 4.1 9.9 17.2 21.8 21.1 15.1 7.3 2.2 0.2 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 9.5% 0.0    0.0
13-7 0.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.2% 19.0% 19.0% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
13-7 2.2% 17.4% 17.4% 12.8 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.8
12-8 7.3% 12.9% 12.9% 13.3 0.1 0.6 0.3 0.0 6.3
11-9 15.1% 8.0% 8.0% 13.6 0.0 0.5 0.6 0.1 13.9
10-10 21.1% 5.5% 5.5% 14.1 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.3 19.9
9-11 21.8% 2.9% 2.9% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.0 21.1
8-12 17.2% 2.0% 2.0% 15.5 0.2 0.2 16.9
7-13 9.9% 1.7% 1.7% 15.9 0.0 0.2 9.7
6-14 4.1% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 4.0
5-15 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 1.0
4-16 0.2% 0.2
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 4.9% 4.9% 0.0% 14.0 95.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%