UTEP
Conference USA
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -5.9 #267
Expected Predictive Rating -7.9 #291
Pace 64.0 #308
Improvement +0.4 #162

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #285 D+ D+ C D F+
Defense #229 C- D+ B- D- C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 31% #344 1.20 #128 -4.0 #309
2 Pt. Jumpers 30% #29 0.62 #342 +1.5 #96
Three Pointers 39% #214 1.01 #194 -0.9 #211
1st FG Attempt 0.95 #283 -3.4 #282
Freethrows 0.26 #305 69% #296 0.18 #318
Second Chance 26.0% #301 1.03 #202 0.27 #278
Turnovers 16.6% #183
Total Offense -4.3 #285

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #227 1.17 #196 +0.6 #151
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #88 0.88 #335 -2.4 #336
Three Pointers 40% #226 1.06 #246 -0.1 #180
1st FG Attempt 1.06 #246 -1.9 #243
Freethrows 0.37 #341 73% #225 0.27 #340
Second Chance 33.0% #287 1.09 #252 0.36 #284
Turnovers 17.9% #83
Total Defense -1.6 #229

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -3.5% #348 -0.9% #95
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -3.3% #232 4.7% #270
Possession Length 18.6 #305 17.5 #209
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 #177 0.17 #183
Improvement +0.2 #172 +0.2 #179

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.3% 0.5% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 1.9% 2.9% 0.3%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 36.1% 20.6% 63.4%
First Four0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
First Round0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Delaware (Home) - 63.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 40 - 6
Quad 33 - 113 - 16
Quad 44 - 67 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 11 161 Loyola Marymount L 58 - 71 39% -3  0 - 1 -16 -7 D F A- -10 F F A+
 Sat, Nov 15 38 @Utah St. L 51 - 75 3% -12  0 - 2 -8 -14 F D D +5 B+ B- A+
 Mon, Nov 24 135 William & Mary L 63 - 74 24% -8  0 - 3 -9 -12 F C+ C- +3 C B- A+
 Tue, Nov 25 119 UAB L 59 - 75 21% -7  0 - 4 -13 -6 C F+ F+ -9 B- F+ C-
 Sun, Dec 7 124 @Seattle L 68 - 75 15% -1  0 - 5 -2 +7 C+ C+ B- -10 D- F B-
 Sat, Dec 13 102 @Hawaii L 61 - 66 11% +2  0 - 6 +3 +2 D A+ B +1 B A- F
 Sun, Dec 21 296 Norfolk St. L 71 - 72 68% -3  0 - 7 -12 -5 C C F -7 F+ B+ B
 Mon, Dec 22 136 North Dakota St. W 76 - 66 34% +3  1 - 7 +8 +4 C C C +5 C- A+ A+
 Mon, Dec 29 210 @Louisiana Tech L 63 - 75 28% -11  1 - 8 0 - 1 -12 -1 F+ A- F -12 F A+ D-
 Fri, Jan 2 181 @Missouri St. L 55 - 79 25% -16  1 - 9 0 - 2 -23 -6 D- D+ D -22 D- F C
 Sun, Jan 4 186 @Florida International L 64 - 76 25% -2  1 - 10 0 - 3 -11 -5 D F B -7 C- F B
 Thu, Jan 8 152 Middle Tennessee W 83 - 80 OT 37% -5  2 - 10 1 - 3 +0 +8 C- A+ B+ -8 B- C+ C+
 Sat, Jan 10 165 Western Kentucky L 56 - 68 41% -0  2 - 11 1 - 4 -15 -16 F F F -0 C+ B C
 Thu, Jan 15 278 @Delaware W 70 - 69 41% -2  3 - 11 2 - 4 -3 +6 C C A+ -8 A- F F
 Sat, Jan 17 91 @Liberty L 69 - 80 9% -7  3 - 12 2 - 5 -2 +7 A+ F D- -10 F+ C D-
 Thu, Jan 22 186 Florida International W 83 - 77 46% +5  4 - 12 3 - 5 +1 +6 B+ C D -5 F+ A- B-
 Sat, Jan 24 181 Missouri St. L 57 - 62 45% +2  4 - 13 3 - 6 -10 -13 D F B- +3 B C- A+
 Wed, Jan 28 210 Louisiana Tech L 59 - 69 50% -6  4 - 14 3 - 7 -16 -9 F F+ C -8 D+ F A+
 Sat, Jan 31 278 Delaware W 67 - 63 64%
 Wed, Feb 4 112 @Sam Houston St. L 67 - 79 12%
 Sat, Feb 7 156 New Mexico St. L 68 - 71 39%
 Wed, Feb 11 185 @Jacksonville St. L 63 - 70 25%
 Sat, Feb 14 91 Liberty L 65 - 74 20%
 Sat, Feb 21 156 @New Mexico St. L 65 - 74 20%
 Thu, Feb 26 152 @Middle Tennessee L 63 - 72 19%
 Sat, Feb 28 165 @Western Kentucky L 67 - 75 21%
 Thu, Mar 5 155 Kennesaw St. L 74 - 77 39%
 Sat, Mar 7 185 Jacksonville St. L 66 - 67 46%
Totals 7 - 21 6 - 14 -6 -4 D+ D+ C -2 C- D+ B-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 3rd
4th 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.5 4th
5th 0.1 0.5 0.1 0.8 5th
6th 0.0 1.0 0.5 0.0 1.6 6th
7th 0.0 1.0 1.8 0.1 2.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 3.8 1.0 0.0 5.4 8th
9th 0.1 1.2 6.3 4.6 0.2 12.4 9th
10th 0.1 2.1 9.0 9.0 1.3 0.0 21.5 10th
11th 0.2 4.6 13.2 13.8 3.1 0.2 35.1 11th
12th 2.9 7.4 7.7 1.7 0.1 19.7 12th
Total 3.2 12.1 23.1 25.7 18.9 10.9 4.1 1.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.0% 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0 0.1
11-9 0.3% 11.5% 11.5% 16.0 0.0 0.3
10-10 1.6% 3.8% 3.8% 16.0 0.1 1.5
9-11 4.1% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.1 4.1
8-12 10.9% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 10.9
7-13 18.9% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 18.9
6-14 25.7% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 25.6
5-15 23.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 23.0
4-16 12.1% 12.1
3-17 3.2% 3.2
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 16.0 99.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 2.4%