Liberty
Conference USA
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating +6.2 #91
Expected Predictive Rating +10.6 #57
Pace 62.2 #342
Improvement +0.9 #144

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #60 A F+ A- F+ A+
Defense #155 C+ D- C+ B+ C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 49% #8 1.28 #62 +8.9 #4
2 Pt. Jumpers 7% #362 0.71 #256 -5.3 #362
Three Pointers 45% #108 1.19 #12 +5.8 #27
1st FG Attempt 1.20 #6 +9.4 #6
Freethrows 0.24 #340 68% #314 0.16 #348
Second Chance 19.5% #364 0.97 #272 0.19 #362
Turnovers 12.6% #11
Total Offense +5.9 #60

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #231 1.01 #24 +3.8 #63
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #146 0.86 #322 -1.4 #299
Three Pointers 42% #166 1.05 #237 -1.0 #227
1st FG Attempt 0.99 #134 +1.3 #134
Freethrows 0.23 #18 72% #187 0.17 #23
Second Chance 31.9% #245 1.24 #353 0.40 #336
Turnovers 17.8% #88
Total Defense +0.3 #155

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 4.9% #1 -0.5% #127
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 12.7% #18 -2.1% #145
Possession Length 18.5 #293 18.5 #327
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 #316 0.13 #47
Improvement -0.1 #187 +1.0 #122

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 40.0% 41.1% 34.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Average Seed 11.8 11.8 12.1
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 98.6% 99.2% 95.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round39.9% 41.0% 34.3%
Second Round5.9% 6.4% 3.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.8% 0.8% 0.6%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Delaware (Away) - 83.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 12 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 22 - 02 - 1
Quad 311 - 414 - 5
Quad 411 - 124 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 154 College of Charleston W 90 - 75 80% +8  1 - 0 +12 +27 A+ B+ A+ -13 D F B
 Sun, Nov 9 107 Florida Atlantic W 88 - 68 69% +15  2 - 0 +21 +19 A+ D- A- +3 A+ F B-
 Mon, Nov 24 200 Vermont W 79 - 73 79% +10  3 - 0 +4 +7 A+ F C -3 C+ F B-
 Tue, Nov 25 168 Towson L 69 - 72 75% +1  3 - 1 -4 +5 B- D- A+ -9 D+ F C
 Wed, Nov 26 127 Bradley L 64 - 74 66% -10  3 - 2 -8 -3 C+ F C+ -6 D F A+
 Sat, Dec 6 364 Coppin St. W 92 - 50 99% +34  4 - 2 +19 +11 A+ D+ C- +9 A A+ C
 Wed, Dec 10 24 @North Carolina St. L 45 - 85 12% -25  4 - 3 -21 -18 F+ F F+ -5 D+ A+ C-
 Sat, Dec 20 84 @Dayton W 64 - 61 37% -2  5 - 3 +13 +9 A- F A+ +4 A C- C+
 Sun, Dec 28 186 @Florida International W 97 - 94 OT 69% -0  6 - 3 1 - 0 +4 +17 A D A+ -13 C F B
 Fri, Jan 2 155 Kennesaw St. W 81 - 73 80% +8  7 - 3 2 - 0 +5 +2 A- F C- +3 A+ D- C
 Sun, Jan 4 185 Jacksonville St. W 78 - 69 85% +4  8 - 3 3 - 0 +4 +12 C C A+ -7 B+ F D-
 Thu, Jan 8 210 @Louisiana Tech W 72 - 56 72% +8  9 - 3 4 - 0 +16 +13 B C- A+ +5 C A+ F+
 Sat, Jan 10 112 @Sam Houston St. W 82 - 74 50% +5  10 - 3 5 - 0 +14 +11 A+ F C+ +4 C B- A
 Thu, Jan 15 156 New Mexico St. W 73 - 71 80% +6  11 - 3 6 - 0 -1 +12 A+ F A -12 D+ F+ D
 Sat, Jan 17 267 UTEP W 80 - 69 91% +7  12 - 3 7 - 0 +2 +14 A+ F A+ -11 F A+ A-
 Wed, Jan 21 165 @Western Kentucky W 76 - 69 64% +5  13 - 3 8 - 0 +10 +12 A+ D+ C+ -2 D+ D- A+
 Sat, Jan 24 278 Delaware W 67 - 51 92% +7  14 - 3 9 - 0 +6 +1 A F A- +8 C A- A+
 Thu, Jan 29 152 @Middle Tennessee W 81 - 65 61% +12  15 - 3 10 - 0 +19 +23 A+ F A+ -1 A F B
 Wed, Feb 4 278 @Delaware W 73 - 63 83%
 Sat, Feb 7 181 Missouri St. W 75 - 64 85%
 Wed, Feb 11 156 @New Mexico St. W 74 - 71 61%
 Sat, Feb 14 267 @UTEP W 74 - 65 80%
 Thu, Feb 19 186 Florida International W 83 - 72 85%
 Sat, Feb 21 165 Western Kentucky W 79 - 69 82%
 Thu, Feb 26 155 @Kennesaw St. W 80 - 77 61%
 Sat, Feb 28 185 @Jacksonville St. W 72 - 67 69%
 Thu, Mar 5 210 Louisiana Tech W 72 - 60 86%
 Sat, Mar 7 112 Sam Houston St. W 79 - 73 71%
Totals 23 - 5 18 - 2 +6 +6 A F+ A- +0 C+ D- C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 1.4 5.8 12.2 21.8 27.4 21.5 8.4 98.6 1st
2nd 0.2 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.1 2nd
3rd 0.2 0.1 0.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.5 2.2 6.0 12.2 21.8 27.4 21.5 8.4 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 8.4    8.4
19-1 100.0% 21.5    21.5
18-2 100.0% 27.4    27.4
17-3 100.0% 21.8    21.7 0.0
16-4 99.8% 12.2    11.8 0.4
15-5 96.2% 5.8    4.6 1.1 0.0
14-6 67.1% 1.4    0.6 0.7 0.1 0.0
13-7 13.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 50.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9
10-10
Total 98.6% 98.6 96.1 2.3 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 8.4% 53.9% 53.0% 0.9% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 3.4 0.9 3.9 1.9%
19-1 21.5% 46.5% 46.4% 0.1% 11.6 0.0 0.1 3.8 5.9 0.3 11.5 0.2%
18-2 27.4% 43.7% 43.7% 11.9 2.0 8.9 1.1 15.4
17-3 21.8% 34.5% 34.5% 12.1 0.7 5.7 1.1 14.2
16-4 12.2% 31.0% 31.0% 12.2 0.2 2.5 1.1 0.0 8.4
15-5 6.0% 26.4% 26.4% 12.4 0.0 1.0 0.6 0.1 4.4
14-6 2.2% 18.8% 18.8% 12.9 0.1 0.2 0.1 1.8
13-7 0.5% 28.7% 28.7% 12.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3
12-8 0.0% 0.0 0.0
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 40.0% 39.9% 0.1% 11.8 60.0 0.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 4.5% 100.0% 11.1 0.2 0.3 6.0 73.7 19.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.3% 2.3% 11.2 1.9 0.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.4% 2.9% 11.0 2.9