Liberty
Conference USA
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+3.8#109
Expected Predictive Rating+1.9#143
Pace64.4#310
Improvement-5.2#360

Offense
Total Offense+3.1#98
First Shot+3.9#76
After Offensive Rebound-0.8#231
Layup/Dunks+8.7#5
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.9#363
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.4#36
Freethrows-5.3#364
Improvement-5.2#365

Defense
Total Defense+0.7#141
First Shot+2.3#102
After Offensive Rebounds-1.6#296
Layups/Dunks-0.7#206
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#300
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.1#67
Freethrows+1.7#79
Improvement+0.0#187
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 23.2% 28.6% 21.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.8 12.3 13.0
.500 or above 89.9% 96.2% 87.7%
.500 or above in Conference 90.6% 94.2% 89.3%
Conference Champion 32.8% 42.2% 29.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.5% 0.2% 0.6%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round23.2% 28.5% 21.3%
Second Round3.1% 5.0% 2.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.6% 0.9% 0.4%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Dayton (Away) - 25.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 13 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 4
Quad 38 - 69 - 9
Quad 410 - 219 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Fri, Nov 7 170 College of Charleston W 90-75 77%     1 - 0 +11.2 +25.4 -12.4
  Sun, Nov 9 117 Florida Atlantic W 88-68 63%     2 - 0 +20.3 +16.1 +4.8
  Mon, Nov 24 186 Vermont W 79-73 70%     3 - 0 +4.3 +5.8 -1.3
  Tue, Nov 25 139 Towson L 69-72 59%     3 - 1 -1.5 +4.2 -6.1
  Wed, Nov 26 116 Bradley L 64-74 52%     3 - 2 -6.7 -0.3 -7.3
  Sat, Dec 6 364 Coppin St. W 92-50 98%     4 - 2 +20.5 +12.5 +9.3
  Wed, Dec 10 29 @North Carolina St. L 45-85 11%     4 - 3 -22.9 -19.4 -5.0
  Sat, Dec 20 73 @Dayton L 68-75 26%    
  Sun, Dec 28 187 @Florida International W 76-73 59%    
  Fri, Jan 2 162 Kennesaw St. W 83-76 74%    
  Sun, Jan 4 254 Jacksonville St. W 73-61 87%    
  Thu, Jan 8 178 @Louisiana Tech W 67-65 58%    
  Sat, Jan 10 125 @Sam Houston St. L 74-76 44%    
  Thu, Jan 15 133 New Mexico St. W 72-67 67%    
  Sat, Jan 17 217 UTEP W 72-62 82%    
  Wed, Jan 21 147 @Western Kentucky L 75-76 49%    
  Sat, Jan 24 282 Delaware W 76-63 88%    
  Wed, Jan 28 157 @Middle Tennessee W 73-72 52%    
  Wed, Feb 4 282 @Delaware W 73-66 75%    
  Sat, Feb 7 251 Missouri St. W 74-62 86%    
  Wed, Feb 11 133 @New Mexico St. L 69-70 47%    
  Sat, Feb 14 217 @UTEP W 69-65 64%    
  Thu, Feb 19 187 Florida International W 79-70 77%    
  Sat, Feb 21 147 Western Kentucky W 79-73 70%    
  Thu, Feb 26 162 @Kennesaw St. W 80-79 52%    
  Sat, Feb 28 254 @Jacksonville St. W 70-64 70%    
  Thu, Mar 5 178 Louisiana Tech W 70-62 76%    
  Sat, Mar 7 125 Sam Houston St. W 77-73 65%    
Projected Record 18 - 10 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.6 3.1 6.6 8.4 7.3 4.4 1.8 0.5 32.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.8 3.9 6.5 5.1 2.3 0.5 0.0 19.1 2nd
3rd 0.6 3.5 5.5 3.5 0.8 0.1 13.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.4 4.5 2.5 0.4 0.0 10.1 4th
5th 0.1 1.5 3.7 2.1 0.3 0.0 7.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.9 2.6 2.0 0.3 0.0 5.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 1.8 1.7 0.3 0.0 4.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.2 0.3 0.0 2.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.3 0.0 1.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.5 2.4 4.3 6.4 8.9 11.2 12.8 13.5 12.4 10.8 7.8 4.4 1.8 0.5 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.5    0.5
19-1 100.0% 1.8    1.8 0.0
18-2 99.5% 4.4    4.2 0.2
17-3 93.9% 7.3    6.5 0.8 0.0
16-4 78.5% 8.4    6.0 2.3 0.2 0.0
15-5 53.0% 6.6    3.3 2.6 0.6 0.0
14-6 22.8% 3.1    0.8 1.4 0.7 0.1 0.0
13-7 4.8% 0.6    0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-10 0.0%
Total 32.8% 32.8 23.2 7.4 1.8 0.4 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.5% 64.5% 61.8% 2.6% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 6.9%
19-1 1.8% 52.2% 52.0% 0.2% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.4%
18-2 4.4% 47.2% 47.0% 0.2% 11.9 0.0 0.5 1.3 0.3 0.0 2.3 0.3%
17-3 7.8% 41.2% 41.2% 12.2 0.3 1.9 1.0 0.1 4.6
16-4 10.8% 35.5% 35.5% 12.5 0.1 1.8 1.7 0.2 6.9
15-5 12.4% 30.1% 30.1% 12.8 0.0 1.2 2.0 0.4 0.0 8.7
14-6 13.5% 23.7% 23.7% 13.0 0.6 1.8 0.7 0.0 10.3
13-7 12.8% 21.3% 21.3% 13.3 0.0 0.4 1.3 0.9 0.1 0.0 10.1
12-8 11.2% 13.6% 13.6% 13.7 0.0 0.5 0.8 0.2 9.7
11-9 8.9% 9.9% 9.9% 14.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 8.1
10-10 6.4% 6.9% 6.9% 14.4 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 5.9
9-11 4.3% 4.1% 4.1% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 4.1
8-12 2.4% 2.9% 2.9% 15.7 0.0 0.1 2.4
7-13 1.5% 1.8% 1.8% 15.9 0.0 0.0 1.4
6-14 0.7% 3.2% 3.2% 16.0 0.0 0.7
5-15 0.3% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 0.3
4-16 0.1% 3.2% 3.2% 16.0 0.0 0.1
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 23.2% 23.2% 0.0% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.5 7.8 8.8 3.7 1.0 0.2 76.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 8.7 1.9 9.4 7.5 5.7 11.3 24.5 18.9 18.9 1.9