Sam Houston St.
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +3.3 #115
Expected Predictive Rating +4.2 #101
Pace 73.5 #60
Improvement +0.8 #148

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #117 C+ B- C- D C
Defense #124 C+ C C+ C C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #129 1.17 #154 +1.5 #123
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #170 0.73 #213 -0.2 #183
Three Pointers 39% #225 1.10 #64 +0.6 #149
1st FG Attempt 1.06 #125 +1.9 #124
Freethrows 0.25 #317 70% #248 0.18 #319
Second Chance 36.4% #35 1.00 #233 0.36 #84
Turnovers 17.1% #227
Total Offense +2.0 #117

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #274 1.24 #286 +0.4 #159
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #215 0.72 #108 +0.9 #123
Three Pointers 46% #58 0.93 #69 -0.2 #187
1st FG Attempt 1.00 #146 +1.1 #145
Freethrows 0.32 #237 70% #64 0.22 #199
Second Chance 29.9% #151 1.04 #181 0.31 #162
Turnovers 17.4% #112
Total Defense +1.3 #124

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.3% #177 -0.1% #157
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 3.3% #124 -2.0% #146
Possession Length 16.0 #53 17.1 #138
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.24 #34 0.16 #161
Improvement -1.1 #240 +1.9 #72

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 21.3% 22.6% 16.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.8 12.8 13.0
.500 or above 99.0% 99.6% 96.5%
.500 or above in Conference 98.0% 99.1% 93.4%
Conference Champion 5.9% 6.8% 2.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round21.3% 22.6% 16.0%
Second Round1.6% 1.8% 1.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Louisiana Tech (Home) - 81.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 31 - 5
Quad 39 - 510 - 10
Quad 410 - 119 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 15 @Texas Tech L 77 - 98 6% -8  0 - 1 +0 +12 C A+ D- -12 C+ F C+
 Sat, Nov 15 104 @Utah L 79 - 85 34% -9  0 - 2 +2 +3 D+ D B- -1 C B A+
 Wed, Nov 19 116 Wyoming W 78 - 70 62% +3  1 - 2 +8 +3 D+ A+ F +5 C- A+ A-
 Wed, Nov 26 228 Idaho St. W 84 - 81 75% +1  2 - 2 -1 +5 C A+ D- -6 D- A+ A+
 Fri, Nov 28 188 Idaho W 94 - 68 69% +4  3 - 2 +24 +29 A+ A+ A+ -2 C- C+ D+
 Tue, Dec 2 63 @Oklahoma St. L 83 - 93 21% -0  3 - 3 +2 +5 B+ F C -2 C+ F A+
 Sat, Dec 6 306 @Texas Southern W 82 - 70 80% +6  4 - 3 +7 -4 F D D- +9 A+ C B-
 Wed, Dec 17 182 @Oregon St. W 85 - 75 58% +8  5 - 3 +11 +7 C+ B D- +4 C A D-
 Sun, Dec 21 154 @New Mexico St. L 78 - 87 50% -13  5 - 4 0 - 1 -6 +0 D C- C- -6 F B F+
 Fri, Jan 2 166 @Western Kentucky L 91 - 102 53% +1  5 - 5 0 - 2 -9 +12 C+ B+ B- -20 C- F B
 Sun, Jan 4 142 @Middle Tennessee L 67 - 68 47% -5  5 - 6 0 - 3 +3 -1 B C+ F +4 C- A+ C-
 Thu, Jan 8 278 Delaware W 72 - 60 88% +7  6 - 6 1 - 3 +2 +4 D+ C A -0 B B- D-
 Sat, Jan 10 94 Liberty L 74 - 82 53% -5  6 - 7 1 - 4 -5 -1 C+ D F -4 D B- A-
 Wed, Jan 14 184 @Jacksonville St. W 77 - 62 58% +7  7 - 7 2 - 4 +16 +15 A+ B+ F+ +3 B+ C+ D
 Sat, Jan 17 190 @Florida International W 76 - 63 59% +7  8 - 7 3 - 4 +14 -1 C+ D- D +14 A+ A A+
 Wed, Jan 21 153 Kennesaw St. W 93 - 87 72% +5  9 - 7 4 - 4 +3 +13 A+ C+ B+ -10 C D+ F
 Sat, Jan 24 166 Western Kentucky W 73 - 58 74% +14  10 - 7 5 - 4 +11 +3 D+ A+ A +9 B+ D- A+
 Wed, Jan 28 183 @Missouri St. W 80 - 71 58% +4  11 - 7 6 - 4 +10 +9 B C- D- +1 C- D- C
 Sat, Jan 31 209 Louisiana Tech W 73 - 64 81%
 Wed, Feb 4 266 UTEP W 79 - 67 87%
 Sat, Feb 7 209 @Louisiana Tech W 70 - 67 62%
 Sat, Feb 14 153 @Kennesaw St. L 82 - 83 50%
 Wed, Feb 18 142 Middle Tennessee W 76 - 71 68%
 Sat, Feb 21 184 Jacksonville St. W 76 - 68 77%
 Thu, Feb 26 190 Florida International W 86 - 78 78%
 Sat, Feb 28 183 Missouri St. W 77 - 69 78%
 Thu, Mar 5 278 @Delaware W 75 - 68 74%
 Sat, Mar 7 94 @Liberty L 73 - 78 32%
Totals 18 - 10 13 - 7 +3 +2 C+ B- C- +1 C+ C C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.4 2.5 1.7 5.9 1st
2nd 0.3 4.4 15.7 18.4 8.9 1.3 48.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 2.1 9.1 8.7 2.0 0.1 22.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 4.8 5.1 0.9 0.1 11.6 4th
5th 0.1 1.8 3.3 0.8 0.0 6.0 5th
6th 0.3 1.9 0.9 0.0 3.1 6th
7th 0.1 0.6 0.8 0.0 1.5 7th
8th 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.5 5.2 11.4 19.4 25.6 21.9 11.5 3.0 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 55.7% 1.7    1.0 0.7 0.0
15-5 22.0% 2.5    0.9 1.5 0.1 0.0
14-6 6.5% 1.4    0.4 0.7 0.3 0.0
13-7 0.9% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 5.9% 5.9 2.3 2.9 0.6 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 3.0% 36.0% 36.0% 11.7 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.0 1.9
15-5 11.5% 29.6% 29.6% 12.3 0.1 2.2 1.1 0.0 8.1
14-6 21.9% 26.5% 26.5% 12.7 0.0 2.3 3.1 0.4 0.0 16.1
13-7 25.6% 22.6% 22.6% 12.9 0.0 1.4 3.5 0.9 0.0 19.8
12-8 19.4% 17.3% 17.3% 13.2 0.5 1.9 0.9 0.1 16.1
11-9 11.4% 11.3% 11.3% 13.4 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.0 10.1
10-10 5.2% 9.8% 9.8% 13.7 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 4.7
9-11 1.5% 5.0% 5.0% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.4
8-12 0.4% 3.8% 3.8% 15.0 0.0 0.4
7-13 0.0% 0.0
6-14 0.0% 0.0
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 21.3% 21.3% 0.0% 12.8 78.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.1% 100.0% 11.7 0.5 35.2 60.2 4.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.6%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.5%