Lipscomb
Atlantic Sun
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -0.6 #169
Expected Predictive Rating +1.7 #138
Pace 73.4 #65
Improvement +0.3 #170

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #196 C D+ C+ D B
Defense #146 C+ C C+ C+ B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #124 1.14 #189 +1.0 #143
2 Pt. Jumpers 12% #330 0.56 #358 -4.3 #352
Three Pointers 47% #66 1.04 #148 +3.5 #68
1st FG Attempt 1.02 #164 +0.2 #168
Freethrows 0.24 #339 77% #37 0.18 #305
Second Chance 25.8% #308 1.08 #118 0.28 #260
Turnovers 15.6% #123
Total Offense -1.2 #196

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #288 1.15 #166 +2.2 #104
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #96 0.75 #157 -0.8 #243
Three Pointers 42% #146 0.99 #150 -0.1 #180
1st FG Attempt 0.99 #139 +1.3 #137
Freethrows 0.29 #142 71% #130 0.20 #129
Second Chance 31.3% #212 1.05 #184 0.33 #206
Turnovers 17.4% #116
Total Defense +0.6 #146

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.4% #39 -1.1% #84
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -1.9% #207 -1.4% #159
Possession Length 16.4 #88 17.1 #141
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.21 #83 0.16 #153
Improvement +0.5 #152 -0.2 #210

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 26.7% 28.0% 24.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.2 14.1 14.5
.500 or above 99.5% 99.8% 98.8%
.500 or above in Conference 99.9% 100.0% 99.8%
Conference Champion 39.8% 48.3% 24.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round26.7% 28.0% 24.3%
Second Round0.6% 0.7% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Jacksonville (Away) - 63.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 15 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 10 - 4
Quad 33 - 33 - 7
Quad 417 - 420 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 12 @Vanderbilt L 61 - 105 3% -29  0 - 1 -22 -6 F C+ F -13 F A+ F
 Sun, Nov 9 150 @Mercer L 77 - 92 35% -8  0 - 2 -12 +5 C B- B- -17 F F F+
 Tue, Nov 11 204 @UNC Asheville L 64 - 69 47% -4  0 - 3 -5 -3 F C C -2 D- D A
 Wed, Nov 19 78 @Belmont L 68 - 75 15% -7  0 - 4 +3 -8 F B+ F +12 A+ C- A+
 Sat, Nov 22 274 Western Carolina W 83 - 62 80% +12  1 - 4 +12 -1 C C C +12 B+ B- A+
 Wed, Nov 26 168 @Marshall W 90 - 67 38% +17  2 - 4 +25 +9 A+ F D +14 A+ C B+
 Sat, Nov 29 246 @Southeast Missouri St. W 88 - 77 54% +4  3 - 4 +9 +5 B+ F F+ +3 B+ A- A-
 Wed, Dec 3 338 Tennessee Tech W 83 - 80 89% +1  4 - 4 -11 -1 C- F C -11 F C- D-
 Sun, Dec 7 297 Alabama A&M W 92 - 58 83% +13  5 - 4 +23 +21 A+ C+ A+ +5 A- B- C+
 Tue, Dec 16 3 @Duke L 73 - 97 1% -5  5 - 5 +3 +2 B F C+ +4 B+ F A+
 Mon, Dec 29 52 @Cincinnati L 62 - 89 10% -16  5 - 6 -14 -1 C B- C+ -12 C- F F+
 Thu, Jan 1 285 Jacksonville W 76 - 57 82% +9  6 - 6 1 - 0 +9 +13 B+ F+ A+ -1 C D+ A+
 Sat, Jan 3 348 North Florida W 82 - 74 91% +2  7 - 6 2 - 0 -7 -5 F D- A -2 C+ B C+
 Thu, Jan 8 329 @Stetson L 83 - 91 74% -11  7 - 7 2 - 1 -15 -1 C+ F D -14 F A+ F+
 Sat, Jan 10 232 @Florida Gulf Coast W 84 - 77 52% +1  8 - 7 3 - 1 +6 +6 B- C F+ -1 C- B- C-
 Thu, Jan 15 303 Bellarmine W 81 - 71 84% +14  9 - 7 4 - 1 -1 +1 C- B D- -2 A+ D F
 Sat, Jan 17 172 Austin Peay W 82 - 78 62% +2  10 - 7 5 - 1 +0 +4 B- D- B+ -4 C C B
 Thu, Jan 22 329 Stetson W 79 - 74 OT 88% +5  11 - 7 6 - 1 -8 -11 F+ F B+ +2 C B+ A
 Fri, Jan 23 232 Florida Gulf Coast W 86 - 71 73% +5  12 - 7 7 - 1 +8 +17 A+ A C -7 B F D+
 Thu, Jan 29 285 @Jacksonville W 72 - 68 64%
 Sat, Jan 31 348 @North Florida W 91 - 82 79%
 Thu, Feb 5 172 @Austin Peay L 73 - 76 40%
 Sat, Feb 7 219 Central Arkansas W 79 - 73 70%
 Wed, Feb 11 263 Eastern Kentucky W 83 - 75 77%
 Sat, Feb 14 199 @Queens L 81 - 82 46%
 Wed, Feb 18 303 @Bellarmine W 82 - 77 67%
 Sat, Feb 21 330 North Alabama W 82 - 69 88%
 Wed, Feb 25 328 @West Georgia W 80 - 73 74%
 Sat, Feb 28 263 @Eastern Kentucky W 80 - 78 57%
Totals 19 - 10 14 - 4 -1 -1 C D+ C+ +1 C+ C C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 2.4 10.5 15.2 9.2 2.3 39.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 3.2 11.2 12.2 3.8 0.2 30.8 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.5 7.5 7.1 1.4 0.0 18.7 3rd
4th 0.2 1.5 3.8 3.3 0.6 0.0 9.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.2 1.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.1 0.7 2.3 6.8 14.2 21.3 24.1 19.0 9.4 2.3 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 2.3    2.3
16-2 98.0% 9.2    7.9 1.3
15-3 80.0% 15.2    9.1 5.6 0.5
14-4 43.6% 10.5    3.2 5.3 1.9 0.1
13-5 11.3% 2.4    0.3 1.0 0.9 0.2
12-6 1.3% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 39.8% 39.8 22.7 13.3 3.4 0.4



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 2.3% 42.5% 42.5% 12.8 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.1 1.3
16-2 9.4% 38.9% 38.9% 13.6 0.2 1.4 1.9 0.3 5.7
15-3 19.0% 31.6% 31.6% 14.0 0.0 1.3 3.4 1.2 0.0 13.0
14-4 24.1% 28.1% 28.1% 14.3 0.0 0.7 3.6 2.4 0.1 17.3
13-5 21.3% 23.9% 23.9% 14.6 0.2 2.0 2.8 0.2 16.2
12-6 14.2% 19.9% 19.9% 14.8 0.0 0.7 1.9 0.3 11.4
11-7 6.8% 14.8% 14.8% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.2 5.8
10-8 2.3% 14.0% 14.0% 15.5 0.2 0.2 2.0
9-9 0.7% 9.6% 9.6% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.6
8-10 0.1% 0.0 0.1
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 26.7% 26.7% 0.0% 14.2 73.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.0% 100.0% 12.8 1.0 30.4 56.7 11.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.4%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.6%