Elon
Colonial Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.9#190
Expected Predictive Rating-1.2#188
Pace69.4#189
Improvement+1.3#94

Offense
Total Offense+3.0#102
First Shot+1.8#126
After Offensive Rebound+1.3#95
Layup/Dunks+2.5#96
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.5#346
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#122
Freethrows+0.9#121
Improvement-0.8#240

Defense
Total Defense-4.9#331
First Shot-5.4#339
After Offensive Rebounds+0.5#150
Layups/Dunks-0.3#181
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#8
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.4#358
Freethrows-1.5#276
Improvement+2.1#46
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.3% 5.7% 3.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.0 13.8 14.2
.500 or above 47.7% 63.4% 38.4%
.500 or above in Conference 53.2% 60.1% 49.1%
Conference Champion 3.9% 5.2% 3.2%
Last Place in Conference 4.9% 3.4% 5.8%
First Four0.2% 0.1% 0.3%
First Round4.2% 5.6% 3.4%
Second Round0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Richmond (Home) - 37.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 31 - 5
Quad 35 - 75 - 12
Quad 410 - 415 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Sat, Nov 8 281 @UNC Greensboro W 92-90 OT 56%     1 - 0 -1.5 +10.7 -12.4
  Wed, Nov 12 161 @Marshall L 89-96 32%     1 - 1 -3.9 +9.8 -13.1
  Sat, Nov 15 357 Gardner-Webb W 95-84 92%     2 - 1 -6.2 +6.7 -13.8
  Thu, Nov 20 33 @Miami (FL) L 72-99 6%     2 - 2 -10.8 +4.7 -14.3
  Mon, Nov 24 231 @Appalachian St. W 88-53 47%     3 - 2 +34.0 +29.1 +10.1
  Sat, Nov 29 168 Mercer L 84-91 57%     3 - 3 -10.8 +1.0 -11.1
  Wed, Dec 3 151 Furman L 88-97 52%     3 - 4 -11.4 +10.9 -22.1
  Sat, Dec 6 246 @Wofford W 73-52 50%     4 - 4 +19.2 +10.0 +12.3
  Sat, Dec 13 327 Northern Illinois W 85-79 85%     5 - 4 -6.9 +4.1 -11.0
  Wed, Dec 17 102 Richmond L 77-81 37%    
  Sat, Dec 20 63 @Virginia Tech L 73-87 10%    
  Mon, Dec 29 209 Northeastern W 79-75 66%    
  Wed, Dec 31 170 College of Charleston W 78-76 57%    
  Thu, Jan 8 310 @N.C. A&T W 81-77 64%    
  Sat, Jan 10 228 Campbell W 82-77 68%    
  Thu, Jan 15 209 @Northeastern L 76-78 44%    
  Sat, Jan 17 114 @Hofstra L 71-79 22%    
  Thu, Jan 22 139 Towson L 72-73 49%    
  Sat, Jan 24 170 @College of Charleston L 75-79 36%    
  Thu, Jan 29 121 William & Mary L 84-86 43%    
  Sat, Jan 31 197 Stony Brook W 77-73 63%    
  Thu, Feb 5 229 @Hampton L 73-74 47%    
  Sat, Feb 7 272 Drexel W 77-70 74%    
  Thu, Feb 12 108 @UNC Wilmington L 71-80 22%    
  Sat, Feb 14 121 @William & Mary L 81-89 24%    
  Sat, Feb 21 310 N.C. A&T W 84-74 81%    
  Thu, Feb 26 139 @Towson L 69-75 29%    
  Sat, Feb 28 220 @Monmouth L 77-78 45%    
  Tue, Mar 3 108 UNC Wilmington L 74-77 41%    
Projected Record 14 - 15 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 1.0 1.3 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 3.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 2.0 2.2 1.0 0.2 0.0 6.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 2.8 3.1 1.1 0.2 0.0 7.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 3.0 4.3 1.6 0.1 0.0 9.4 4th
5th 0.2 2.6 5.3 2.3 0.2 0.0 10.5 5th
6th 0.1 1.6 5.9 3.2 0.4 0.0 11.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.9 4.9 4.5 0.6 0.0 11.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 3.6 4.8 1.1 0.0 10.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 2.1 4.9 1.8 0.1 9.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 1.4 3.9 2.4 0.2 0.0 8.0 10th
11th 0.1 1.0 2.8 2.4 0.4 6.7 11th
12th 0.1 0.6 1.6 1.5 0.4 0.0 4.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.0 2.3 13th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.4 3.4 6.2 9.2 12.2 13.5 14.6 12.6 10.4 7.3 4.5 2.4 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-2 94.1% 0.3    0.3 0.0 0.0
15-3 83.3% 0.8    0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
14-4 53.0% 1.3    0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0
13-5 23.3% 1.0    0.2 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 4.8% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 3.9% 3.9 1.9 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0
17-1 0.1% 29.2% 29.2% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
16-2 0.3% 27.5% 27.5% 12.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2
15-3 1.0% 22.3% 22.3% 13.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.8
14-4 2.4% 18.5% 18.5% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 2.0
13-5 4.5% 14.2% 14.2% 13.4 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 3.9
12-6 7.3% 10.6% 10.6% 13.8 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 6.5
11-7 10.4% 7.7% 7.7% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 9.6
10-8 12.6% 4.5% 4.5% 14.5 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.0 12.1
9-9 14.6% 2.4% 2.4% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 14.2
8-10 13.5% 1.4% 1.4% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 13.3
7-11 12.2% 1.1% 1.1% 15.9 0.0 0.1 12.1
6-12 9.2% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 9.2
5-13 6.2% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 6.1
4-14 3.4% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 3.4
3-15 1.4% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 1.4
2-16 0.6% 0.6
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 4.3% 4.3% 0.0% 14.0 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.6 1.0 0.4 95.7 0.0%