Akron
Mid-American
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +8.9 #62
Expected Predictive Rating +7.6 #75
Pace 76.4 #26
Improvement -1.9 #273

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #35 B+ A+ B- C- B-
Defense #138 C D+ B- C C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #135 1.29 #60 +3.5 #69
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% #296 0.85 #59 -1.4 #251
Three Pointers 45% #106 1.13 #35 +4.5 #48
1st FG Attempt 1.15 #28 +6.7 #28
Freethrows 0.27 #289 76% #63 0.20 #237
Second Chance 34.8% #66 1.37 #2 0.47 #6
Turnovers 15.0% #93
Total Offense +8.1 #35

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #195 1.14 #156 +0.4 #156
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #272 0.74 #144 +1.2 #99
Three Pointers 44% #91 1.02 #194 -1.7 #264
1st FG Attempt 1.02 #182 +0.0 #182
Freethrows 0.30 #172 73% #231 0.22 #183
Second Chance 34.0% #310 1.04 #172 0.35 #266
Turnovers 18.0% #80
Total Defense +0.8 #138

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.6% #74 0.7% #233
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 11.3% #31 -0.6% #173
Possession Length 15.6 #40 17.6 #232
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.24 #32 0.16 #143
Improvement -3.8 #350 +1.9 #67

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 48.4% 49.5% 42.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Average Seed 11.7 11.7 12.0
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 55.0% 59.3% 30.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round48.3% 49.4% 42.4%
Second Round10.4% 10.9% 7.9%
Sweet Sixteen2.3% 2.3% 1.7%
Elite Eight0.4% 0.4% 0.1%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Kent St. (Home) - 85.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 12 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 4
Quad 38 - 19 - 6
Quad 416 - 025 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 210 James Madison W 85 - 71 91% +0  1 - 0 +8 +5 F A+ C+ +3 C+ B A+
 Sat, Nov 8 212 Princeton W 104 - 69 91% +20  2 - 0 +29 +20 A+ A- A+ +6 C A+ B
 Sun, Nov 16 8 @Purdue L 79 - 97 9% -12  2 - 1 +5 +12 C A+ B+ -6 B- F A+
 Fri, Nov 21 225 Iona W 96 - 75 88% +18  3 - 1 +17 +14 A+ A- C+ +1 B F+ A+
 Sun, Nov 23 267 Evansville W 97 - 59 91% +13  4 - 1 +32 +24 A+ A+ C- +8 B F A+
 Mon, Nov 24 71 Yale L 94 - 97 54% -6  4 - 2 +5 +27 A+ A+ D+ -22 F C D+
 Sat, Nov 29 247 Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 105 - 81 93% +13  5 - 2 +16 +17 A+ B- F+ -3 B F+ B-
 Wed, Dec 3 323 Bucknell W 97 - 77 97% +16  6 - 2 +7 +21 B+ B A+ -14 F C+ D-
 Sat, Dec 6 175 @Tulane W 88 - 71 76% +8  7 - 2 +19 +15 A- A D +4 A- C- D-
 Sat, Dec 13 103 Murray St. L 100 - 115 66% -9  7 - 3 -10 +12 A C- A+ -20 F D- A+
 Fri, Dec 19 242 Eastern Michigan W 93 - 72 93% +15  8 - 3 1 - 0 +14 +17 B A+ A -4 A+ F+ D
 Sat, Jan 3 91 @Miami (OH) L 73 - 76 50% +1  8 - 4 1 - 1 +6 +0 D- A+ F+ +6 A+ F A+
 Tue, Jan 6 302 Central Michigan W 82 - 69 96% +10  9 - 4 2 - 1 +2 +2 A A+ F -1 D+ A A+
 Fri, Jan 9 145 @Bowling Green W 77 - 67 69% +11  10 - 4 3 - 1 +14 +4 C A- C +9 C+ A- A
 Tue, Jan 13 295 Ball St. W 87 - 77 96% +11  11 - 4 4 - 1 -1 +11 B- B- A+ -12 F D C-
 Sat, Jan 17 273 Western Michigan W 104 - 89 95% +2  12 - 4 5 - 1 +6 +28 A+ A+ B- -22 F F+ C
 Tue, Jan 20 185 @Buffalo W 82 - 63 77% +17  13 - 4 6 - 1 +20 +7 B+ D+ D+ +14 A+ B+ B-
 Fri, Jan 23 214 @Ohio W 86 - 65 81% +15  14 - 4 7 - 1 +21 +9 C+ D C+ +10 A+ C D-
 Tue, Jan 27 164 Toledo W 91 - 81 87% +0  15 - 4 8 - 1 +7 +14 C A+ B- -7 F C A+
 Fri, Jan 30 143 Kent St. W 93 - 82 85%
 Tue, Feb 3 242 @Eastern Michigan W 84 - 74 84%
 Sat, Feb 7 113 @Troy W 83 - 80 59%
 Sat, Feb 14 171 Massachusetts W 92 - 79 88%
 Tue, Feb 17 273 @Western Michigan W 90 - 78 87%
 Sat, Feb 21 295 @Ball St. W 84 - 70 90%
 Tue, Feb 24 185 Buffalo W 91 - 77 90%
 Sat, Feb 28 143 @Kent St. W 90 - 85 66%
 Tue, Mar 3 302 @Central Michigan W 88 - 74 90%
 Fri, Mar 6 310 Northern Illinois W 91 - 70 97%
Totals 23 - 6 16 - 2 +9 +8 B+ A+ B- +1 C D+ B-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.1 7.1 21.5 25.3 55.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.3 6.9 14.8 14.9 3.9 41.9 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.3 0.2 3.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.4 9.2 22.1 36.3 29.2 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 86.7% 25.3    17.7 7.6
16-2 59.1% 21.5    11.7 9.8
15-3 32.3% 7.1    2.7 4.1 0.3
14-4 11.5% 1.1    0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0
13-5 2.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9
Total 55.0% 55.0 32.4 22.1 0.5 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 29.2% 55.7% 55.5% 0.2% 11.3 0.0 0.1 0.4 9.7 5.8 0.2 0.0 12.9 0.5%
16-2 36.3% 49.8% 49.7% 0.0% 11.8 0.0 5.1 11.7 1.2 0.0 18.3 0.0%
15-3 22.1% 43.6% 43.6% 12.0 1.2 7.1 1.2 0.1 12.5
14-4 9.2% 38.2% 38.2% 12.2 0.2 2.4 0.9 0.0 5.7
13-5 2.4% 30.0% 30.0% 12.3 0.0 0.4 0.3 0.0 1.7
12-6 0.6% 24.8% 24.8% 12.5 0.1 0.1 0.5
11-7 0.1% 21.4% 21.4% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.1
10-8 0.0% 0.0
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 48.4% 48.3% 0.1% 11.7 51.6 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 10.7% 100.0% 11.2 0.0 1.4 4.1 70.2 24.2 0.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 3.5% 1.1% 11.3 0.9 0.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 2.5% 0.2% 11.0 0.2