Texas Tech
Big 12
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +18.2 #15
Expected Predictive Rating +21.0 #11
Pace 68.7 #182
Improvement +4.6 #20

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #9 A- B- B+ C- D+
Defense #29 B A- C+ B A+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 31% #340 1.29 #61 -2.4 #267
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #158 0.91 #22 +2.0 #79
Three Pointers 48% #53 1.22 #8 +8.3 #9
1st FG Attempt 1.18 #16 +7.9 #16
Freethrows 0.28 #264 73% #170 0.20 #241
Second Chance 36.0% #41 1.05 #170 0.38 #65
Turnovers 13.7% #34
Total Offense +11.3 #9

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 31% #336 1.10 #102 +5.2 #35
2 Pt. Jumpers 33% #3 0.77 #207 -4.8 #364
Three Pointers 36% #300 0.90 #44 +4.5 #27
1st FG Attempt 0.92 #46 +4.9 #46
Freethrows 0.28 #99 67% #16 0.19 #58
Second Chance 24.2% #15 0.93 #48 0.23 #15
Turnovers 17.0% #144
Total Defense +6.8 #29

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.3% #272 -4.1% #6
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 17.0% #4 -5.7% #72
Possession Length 16.8 #120 17.9 #267
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 #214 0.09 #8
Improvement +3.5 #31 +1.1 #117

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.4% 0.5% 0.1%
#1 Seed 3.7% 4.8% 1.5%
Top 2 Seed 14.3% 18.1% 6.9%
Top 4 Seed 63.3% 71.0% 48.1%
Top 6 Seed 94.8% 97.4% 89.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 99.9% 100.0% 99.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 99.9% 100.0% 99.8%
Average Seed 4.1 3.8 4.6
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.8% 100.0% 99.6%
Conference Champion 8.7% 11.5% 3.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round99.9% 100.0% 99.8%
Second Round89.6% 91.3% 86.4%
Sweet Sixteen50.0% 53.2% 43.8%
Elite Eight22.0% 23.8% 18.6%
Final Four9.4% 10.6% 7.1%
Championship Game3.9% 4.5% 2.8%
National Champion1.6% 1.8% 1.3%

Next Game: Central Florida (Away) - 66.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 4 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 74 - 7
Quad 1b4 - 19 - 8
Quad 26 - 115 - 9
Quad 35 - 020 - 9
Quad 44 - 024 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 250 Lindenwood W 98 - 60 98% +19  1 - 0 +30 +15 B- D+ A+ +12 A- A+ C
 Fri, Nov 7 115 Sam Houston St. W 98 - 77 94% +8  2 - 0 +21 +24 B+ A+ B -3 B+ D B+
 Tue, Nov 11 6 @Illinois L 77 - 81 29% -4  2 - 1 +20 +11 A+ C- F +9 B+ A A
 Fri, Nov 14 247 Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 80 - 63 98% +4  3 - 1 +9 +9 C- A B- +2 B- D A+
 Thu, Nov 20 68 Wake Forest W 84 - 83 82% +2  4 - 1 +9 +10 B+ B- B -1 B- C+ F+
 Fri, Nov 21 8 Purdue L 56 - 86 41% -17  4 - 2 -10 -7 F C+ A- -4 D- A- A-
 Wed, Nov 26 220 New Orleans W 82 - 50 98% +12  5 - 2 +25 +3 D+ A D- +23 A+ A A
 Sun, Nov 30 116 Wyoming W 76 - 72 94% +2  6 - 2 +4 +5 C+ C+ B- -1 C A+ B+
 Sun, Dec 7 47 LSU W 82 - 58 75% +18  7 - 2 +35 +12 A- C+ D- +23 A+ A+ D+
 Sat, Dec 13 21 Arkansas L 86 - 93 54% +2  7 - 3 +10 +23 A+ B+ A+ -13 C F D+
 Tue, Dec 16 197 Northern Colorado W 101 - 90 97% +7  8 - 3 +6 +26 A+ D- A+ -20 F+ F D
 Sat, Dec 20 3 Duke W 82 - 81 30% -4  9 - 3 +25 +20 A+ B+ A+ +4 D- A+ C+
 Sun, Dec 28 126 Winthrop W 87 - 57 95% +26  10 - 3 +29 +12 A C+ D- +17 A+ A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 3 63 Oklahoma St. W 102 - 80 87% +12  11 - 3 1 - 0 +28 +22 A A- A+ +4 B A+ D-
 Tue, Jan 6 4 @Houston L 65 - 69 27% +0  11 - 4 1 - 1 +20 +8 B- B+ B +13 A+ B+ D
 Sat, Jan 10 80 @Colorado W 73 - 71 78% +9  12 - 4 2 - 1 +12 +5 B- D B +7 A+ A+ D-
 Wed, Jan 14 104 Utah W 88 - 74 93% +11  13 - 4 3 - 1 +16 +11 A+ B+ C +4 B A A-
 Sat, Jan 17 14 BYU W 84 - 71 60% +1  14 - 4 4 - 1 +29 +17 A+ C+ B+ +11 A+ A+ B+
 Tue, Jan 20 48 @Baylor W 92 - 73 66% +16  15 - 4 5 - 1 +33 +27 A+ D F+ +7 B+ B B
 Sat, Jan 24 4 Houston W 90 - 86 49% +1  16 - 4 6 - 1 +22 +33 A A+ A+ -10 D A- D
 Sat, Jan 31 49 @Central Florida W 82 - 78 66%
 Mon, Feb 2 17 Kansas W 77 - 74 61%
 Sun, Feb 8 57 @West Virginia W 72 - 67 69%
 Wed, Feb 11 80 Colorado W 87 - 73 91%
 Sat, Feb 14 2 @Arizona L 76 - 85 20%
 Tue, Feb 17 77 @Arizona St. W 84 - 76 76%
 Sat, Feb 21 87 Kansas St. W 88 - 73 91%
 Tue, Feb 24 52 Cincinnati W 77 - 66 85%
 Sat, Feb 28 9 @Iowa St. L 74 - 79 31%
 Tue, Mar 3 45 TCU W 80 - 70 81%
 Sat, Mar 7 14 @BYU L 78 - 81 37%
Totals 23 - 8 13 - 5 +18 +11 A- B- B+ +7 B A- C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.0 4.0 3.0 0.6 8.7 1st
2nd 0.1 2.7 10.7 7.6 1.1 22.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.1 12.4 10.4 1.2 0.0 26.3 3rd
4th 0.0 1.3 8.7 8.9 1.0 0.0 19.9 4th
5th 0.3 4.3 6.5 1.1 12.2 5th
6th 0.1 1.5 3.4 1.3 0.0 6.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 1.7 1.1 0.1 3.2 7th
8th 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
Total 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.9 10.1 18.8 25.2 23.1 12.9 4.2 0.6 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.6    0.5 0.1
16-2 72.0% 3.0    1.6 1.3 0.2
15-3 31.0% 4.0    0.7 2.0 1.2 0.1
14-4 4.4% 1.0    0.0 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.0
13-5 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 8.7% 8.7 2.9 3.6 1.8 0.4 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.6% 100.0% 18.1% 81.9% 1.7 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-2 4.2% 100.0% 17.3% 82.7% 2.2 1.1 1.7 1.1 0.3 0.0 100.0%
15-3 12.9% 100.0% 15.3% 84.7% 2.7 1.4 3.7 5.1 2.5 0.3 0.0 100.0%
14-4 23.1% 100.0% 12.0% 88.0% 3.4 0.8 3.5 8.3 7.7 2.5 0.3 0.0 100.0%
13-5 25.2% 100.0% 8.6% 91.4% 4.1 0.2 1.2 5.4 10.0 6.7 1.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
12-6 18.8% 99.9% 4.4% 95.5% 4.8 0.0 0.2 1.8 5.0 7.3 3.7 0.7 0.0 0.0 99.9%
11-7 10.1% 99.9% 3.5% 96.4% 5.5 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.4 3.4 1.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 99.9%
10-8 3.9% 99.9% 1.8% 98.1% 6.3 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.4 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9%
9-9 1.0% 99.0% 99.0% 7.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.0%
8-10 0.1% 92.9% 3.6% 89.3% 8.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 92.6%
7-11 0.0% 0.0 0.0
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 99.9% 9.0% 90.9% 4.1 0.1 99.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.4 60.9 39.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2% 100.0% 1.6 46.2 43.6 10.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2% 100.0% 1.9 34.9 39.5 25.6