IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Canisius
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2025-26

Overall
Predictive Rating	-11.8	#346
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	65.9	#236
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-6.1	#338

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-5.7	#342

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	1.0%	5.8%	1.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	18.1	14.8	15.7

.500 or above	10.3%	38.5%	10.0%
.500 or above in Conference	17.0%	41.5%	16.7%
Conference Champion	0.9%	2.7%	0.8%
Last Place in Conference	31.9%	12.5%	32.2%

First Four	0.6%	1.4%	0.6%
First Round	0.9%	6.1%	0.8%
Second Round	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Dayton (Away) - 1.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 2	0 - 2	0 - 3
Quad 3	1 - 6	1 - 9
Quad 4	9 - 12	10 - 21

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 03, 2025	65	@ Dayton	L	56-80	1%
Nov 08, 2025	120	@ St. Bonaventure	L	57-74	6%
Nov 12, 2025	361	Mercyhurst	W	69-62	74%
Nov 17, 2025	108	@ High Point	L	61-80	4%
Nov 21, 2025	360	Maryland Eastern Shore	W	70-63	73%
Nov 23, 2025	331	Binghamton	W	68-67	54%
Nov 29, 2025	334	Buffalo	W	74-72	55%
Dec 05, 2025	297	@ St. Peter's	L	59-66	26%
Dec 07, 2025	222	@ Siena	L	64-75	17%
Dec 13, 2025	290	@ Maine	L	61-69	26%
Dec 16, 2025	146	@ Rhode Island	L	65-81	9%
Dec 22, 2025	115	@ Duquesne	L	57-75	6%
Jan 02, 2026	319	Fairfield	W	68-67	51%
Jan 04, 2026	254	Sacred Heart	L	72-76	38%
Jan 09, 2026	260	@ Manhattan	L	67-77	21%
Jan 11, 2026	199	@ Iona	L	64-77	15%
Jan 14, 2026	335	Niagara	W	67-65	55%
Jan 17, 2026	269	Mount St. Mary's	L	67-70	41%
Jan 22, 2026	254	@ Sacred Heart	L	69-79	21%
Jan 24, 2026	319	@ Fairfield	L	65-71	32%
Jan 30, 2026	237	Marist	L	60-65	35%
Feb 01, 2026	222	Siena	L	67-72	33%
Feb 03, 2026	335	@ Niagara	L	64-68	36%
Feb 05, 2026	215	@ Quinnipiac	L	67-79	17%
Feb 13, 2026	199	Iona	L	67-74	30%
Feb 15, 2026	260	Manhattan	L	70-74	39%
Feb 20, 2026	313	@ Rider	L	64-70	31%
Feb 22, 2026	269	@ Mount St. Mary's	L	64-73	23%
Feb 27, 2026	257	Merrimack	L	62-66	38%
Mar 01, 2026	215	Quinnipiac	L	70-76	32%
Projected Record						9 - 21	6 - 14

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0		Total
1st													0.0	0.0	0.2	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0			0.9	1st
2nd												0.0	0.1	0.3	0.5	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0				1.3	2nd
3rd											0.0	0.1	0.6	0.8	0.4	0.1	0.0						2.0	3rd
4th											0.1	0.7	1.1	0.6	0.1	0.0							2.5	4th
5th										0.1	0.8	1.6	1.0	0.2	0.0								3.6	5th
6th									0.0	0.7	2.1	1.4	0.1	0.0									4.3	6th
7th								0.0	0.6	2.5	1.9	0.3	0.0										5.5	7th
8th							0.1	0.6	2.4	2.9	0.7	0.0											6.8	8th
9th						0.0	0.7	2.8	3.7	1.2	0.1												8.6	9th
10th					0.1	1.0	3.5	4.5	1.6	0.2	0.0												10.9	10th
11th			0.0	0.3	1.6	4.4	5.0	2.4	0.3	0.0													14.0	11th
12th		0.1	0.9	2.7	5.2	5.0	2.3	0.4	0.0														16.5	12th
13th	1.4	3.7	6.2	5.8	4.2	1.5	0.3	0.0															23.1	13th

Total	1.4	3.8	7.1	8.8	11.1	11.9	11.8	10.8	8.8	7.6	5.7	4.1	2.9	1.9	1.2	0.7	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0				Total

Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
20-0
19-1	100.0%	0.0		0.0
18-2	85.8%	0.0		0.0	0.0
17-3	97.0%	0.1		0.1	0.0
16-4	62.3%	0.2		0.1	0.1	0.0
15-5	38.1%	0.3		0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0
14-6	15.4%	0.2		0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
13-7	2.4%	0.0			0.0	0.0	0.0		0.0
12-8	0.1%	0.0				0.0
11-9	0.0%
10-10	0.0%

Total	0.9%	0.9		0.4	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1	0.0%		100.0%	100.0%		14.0															0.0
18-2	0.0%		13.9%	13.9%		13.0														0.0				0.0
17-3	0.1%		21.3%	21.3%		13.6												0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0		0.1
16-4	0.3%		14.2%	14.2%		15.8														0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.3
15-5	0.7%		13.3%	13.3%		16.6															0.0	0.1	0.0	0.6
14-6	1.2%		11.5%	11.5%		16.9															0.0	0.0	0.1	1.0
13-7	1.9%		6.3%	6.3%		19.9															0.0	0.1	0.1	1.8
12-8	2.9%		6.0%	6.0%		20.6															0.0	0.0	0.2	2.8
11-9	4.1%		2.6%	2.6%		18.2																0.0	0.1	4.0
10-10	5.7%		2.1%	2.1%		18.7																0.0	0.1	5.6
9-11	7.6%		1.0%	1.0%		19.4																	0.1	7.5
8-12	8.8%		0.6%	0.6%		16.0																	0.1	8.7
7-13	10.8%		0.4%	0.4%		16.0																	0.0	10.8
6-14	11.8%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	11.8
5-15	11.9%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	11.9
4-16	11.1%																							11.1
3-17	8.8%																							8.8
2-18	7.1%																							7.1
1-19	3.8%																							3.8
0-20	1.4%																							1.4

Total	100%		1.0%	1.0%	0.0%	18.1												0.0		0.0	0.1	0.2	0.9	99.0		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.2%