Canisius
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -11.4 #339
Expected Predictive Rating -9.3 #316
Pace 62.7 #332
Improvement +2.2 #86

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #350 F+ D D D+ C-
Defense #283 D+ C D+ C C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #259 0.84 #365 -7.4 #356
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #116 0.76 #168 +1.1 #114
Three Pointers 41% #190 0.96 #255 -1.2 #226
1st FG Attempt 0.87 #356 -7.5 #356
Freethrows 0.28 #261 68% #312 0.19 #288
Second Chance 27.0% #283 0.92 #308 0.25 #313
Turnovers 19.0% #313
Total Offense -8.0 #350

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #269 1.30 #336 -0.9 #204
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #262 0.84 #312 +0.2 #174
Three Pointers 46% #44 1.02 #198 -2.9 #303
1st FG Attempt 1.09 #293 -3.6 #294
Freethrows 0.29 #155 73% #207 0.21 #154
Second Chance 31.9% #237 0.99 #121 0.32 #182
Turnovers 14.7% #299
Total Defense -3.4 #283

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.2% #264 0.3% #189
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -13.5% #355 6.8% #308
Possession Length 19.1 #340 17.1 #157
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 #271 0.18 #228
Improvement +0.7 #146 +1.5 #97

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.2% 0.3% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 0.2% 0.4% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 1.3% 3.8% 0.5%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 12.8% 4.6% 15.6%
First Four0.2% 0.3% 0.2%
First Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Siena (Home) - 25.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 40 - 4
Quad 30 - 60 - 10
Quad 410 - 1110 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 90 @Dayton L 48 - 88 4% -21  0 - 1 -31 -13 F C F -22 D- F F
 Sat, Nov 8 141 @St. Bonaventure L 70 - 89 8% -10  0 - 2 -15 +4 A- F+ C+ -21 C F F+
 Wed, Nov 12 304 Mercyhurst W 58 - 55 49% +3  1 - 2 -8 -10 C F F+ +3 C+ B C+
 Mon, Nov 17 98 @High Point L 50 - 93 4% -25  1 - 3 -35 -19 F C+ F -18 F D- F+
 Fri, Nov 21 338 Maryland Eastern Shore W 60 - 57 61% +3  2 - 3 -11 -5 C C+ D -5 C D- C-
 Sun, Nov 23 361 Binghamton W 75 - 66 77% +3  3 - 3 -10 +3 D A+ C- -12 C- F+ F+
 Sat, Nov 29 203 Buffalo L 53 - 71 29% -8  3 - 4 -24 -22 F D+ D+ -4 B- C D+
 Fri, Dec 5 227 @St. Peter's L 57 - 69 16% -6  3 - 5 0 - 1 -13 -8 F D+ C -5 A- F D
 Sun, Dec 7 178 @Siena L 52 - 74 12% -14  3 - 6 0 - 2 -20 -16 F D F -7 D A- F
 Sat, Dec 13 346 @Maine W 70 - 43 40% +16  4 - 6 +18 +4 B- C- F +17 A+ C A-
 Tue, Dec 16 111 @Rhode Island L 45 - 62 6% -3  4 - 7 -10 -18 F F F +6 B+ A+ C
 Mon, Dec 22 120 @Duquesne L 59 - 103 6% -22  4 - 8 -38 -13 D C- F -23 F D F
 Fri, Jan 2 268 Fairfield W 85 - 81 41% +4  5 - 8 1 - 2 -5 +10 C B+ A+ -15 C- D- F+
 Sun, Jan 4 269 Sacred Heart W 82 - 78 41% -4  6 - 8 2 - 2 -5 +4 F+ B D+ -9 D C- D
 Fri, Jan 9 327 @Manhattan W 70 - 64 35% -1  7 - 8 3 - 2 -1 -6 F F+ B +5 C A+ C
 Sun, Jan 11 231 @Iona L 48 - 74 17% -8  7 - 9 3 - 3 -27 -17 F D A+ -14 F F B+
 Wed, Jan 14 348 Niagara L 54 - 59 63% -3  7 - 10 3 - 4 -20 -15 F F+ F+ -6 D+ A- C-
 Sat, Jan 17 290 Mount St. Mary's L 68 - 78 46% -1  7 - 11 3 - 5 -20 -5 C+ F C- -16 F D+ C
 Thu, Jan 22 269 @Sacred Heart L 66 - 69 21% +2  7 - 12 3 - 6 -6 -10 D+ F C- +4 D A+ D+
 Sat, Jan 24 268 @Fairfield L 55 - 61 21% -7  7 - 13 3 - 7 -9 -13 F C- F +3 D+ B- B+
 Fri, Jan 30 164 Marist L 86 - 88 OT 22% +1  7 - 14 3 - 8 -5 +12 A+ B- B- -17 F B+ C-
 Sun, Feb 1 178 Siena L 63 - 70 26%
 Tue, Feb 3 348 @Niagara L 62 - 65 41%
 Thu, Feb 5 191 @Quinnipiac L 65 - 77 12%
 Fri, Feb 13 231 Iona L 67 - 71 34%
 Sun, Feb 15 327 Manhattan W 73 - 71 57%
 Fri, Feb 20 352 @Rider L 65 - 66 46%
 Sun, Feb 22 290 @Mount St. Mary's L 63 - 70 26%
 Fri, Feb 27 208 Merrimack L 62 - 67 31%
 Sun, Mar 1 191 Quinnipiac L 68 - 74 28%
Totals 10 - 20 6 - 14 -11 -8 F+ D D -3 D+ C D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.1 5th
6th 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.4 6th
7th 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.0 1.2 7th
8th 0.1 1.1 1.9 0.3 3.3 8th
9th 0.1 1.9 4.4 1.3 0.0 7.8 9th
10th 0.3 4.4 9.7 4.4 0.2 19.0 10th
11th 0.1 2.7 12.8 17.7 7.4 0.6 0.0 41.3 11th
12th 1.5 7.9 9.5 3.2 0.2 22.4 12th
13th 1.8 2.1 0.5 0.0 4.5 13th
Total 3.4 12.7 23.1 25.4 19.2 10.6 4.2 1.2 0.2 0.0 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.0% 0.0
11-9 0.2% 3.1% 3.1% 16.0 0.0 0.2
10-10 1.2% 1.7% 1.7% 15.8 0.0 0.0 1.1
9-11 4.2% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 4.1
8-12 10.6% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 10.6
7-13 19.2% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 19.2
6-14 25.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 25.4
5-15 23.1% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 23.1
4-16 12.7% 12.7
3-17 3.4% 3.4
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 16.0 99.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 3.4%