Preseason Rankings
Chicago St.
Northeast
2025-26
Overall
Predictive Rating-12.0#349
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace71.0#96
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-6.4#341
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-5.6#339
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.1% 18.4% 10.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 17.5 15.8 15.9
.500 or above 12.7% 39.7% 12.2%
.500 or above in Conference 65.6% 84.0% 65.2%
Conference Champion 14.9% 29.3% 14.6%
Last Place in Conference 7.6% 1.8% 7.7%
First Four9.3% 12.9% 9.2%
First Round5.7% 13.7% 5.5%
Second Round0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: DePaul (Away) - 2.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 20 - 30 - 7
Quad 30 - 40 - 11
Quad 411 - 1111 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 03, 2025 84   @ DePaul L 62-83 2%    
  Nov 06, 2025 72   @ Saint Louis L 61-84 2%    
  Nov 11, 2025 66   @ Butler L 61-85 2%    
  Nov 15, 2025 154   Illinois-Chicago L 69-78 20%    
  Nov 18, 2025 87   @ Minnesota L 56-77 3%    
  Nov 20, 2025 32   @ Iowa L 63-92 1%    
  Nov 25, 2025 192   @ Purdue Fort Wayne L 69-82 13%    
  Nov 28, 2025 179   @ Youngstown St. L 67-81 12%    
  Dec 01, 2025 311   South Carolina St. L 72-73 48%    
  Dec 06, 2025 109   @ Illinois St. L 63-82 5%    
  Dec 14, 2025 103   @ Loyola Chicago L 61-81 5%    
  Dec 16, 2025 220   @ Bowling Green L 67-79 16%    
  Dec 20, 2025 34   @ Indiana L 59-88 1%    
  Jan 02, 2026 343   Wagner W 62-59 59%    
  Jan 04, 2026 300   LIU Brooklyn L 66-67 45%    
  Jan 08, 2026 354   @ Fairleigh Dickinson L 73-75 43%    
  Jan 10, 2026 340   @ Stonehill L 66-70 38%    
  Jan 17, 2026 347   Le Moyne W 77-74 59%    
  Jan 19, 2026 363   New Haven W 75-67 75%    
  Jan 23, 2026 344   @ St. Francis (PA) L 69-72 39%    
  Jan 25, 2026 361   @ Mercyhurst W 68-67 53%    
  Jan 29, 2026 344   St. Francis (PA) W 72-69 58%    
  Jan 31, 2026 361   Mercyhurst W 71-64 71%    
  Feb 05, 2026 305   @ Central Connecticut St. L 64-71 28%    
  Feb 07, 2026 363   @ New Haven W 72-70 58%    
  Feb 12, 2026 340   Stonehill W 69-67 58%    
  Feb 14, 2026 347   @ Le Moyne L 74-77 40%    
  Feb 19, 2026 354   Fairleigh Dickinson W 76-72 63%    
  Feb 21, 2026 305   Central Connecticut St. L 67-68 47%    
  Feb 26, 2026 300   @ LIU Brooklyn L 63-70 27%    
  Feb 28, 2026 343   @ Wagner L 59-62 39%    
Projected Record 10 - 21 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.8 2.6 3.7 3.2 2.3 1.4 14.2 1st
2nd 0.2 1.8 4.2 4.2 2.5 0.9 0.2 0.0 14.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 2.3 4.9 3.7 1.4 0.2 0.0 12.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.1 5.0 3.5 0.8 0.1 11.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.7 4.8 3.4 0.6 0.0 10.6 5th
6th 0.1 1.5 4.2 3.1 0.5 0.0 9.5 6th
7th 0.1 1.0 3.5 3.0 0.5 8.1 7th
8th 0.1 1.0 3.0 2.7 0.6 0.0 7.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.4 2.0 0.5 0.0 6.3 9th
10th 0.1 0.6 1.1 1.4 1.0 0.2 0.0 4.5 10th
Total 0.1 0.6 1.4 2.6 4.5 6.4 8.4 9.8 10.8 11.3 10.9 9.6 8.3 6.5 4.2 2.5 1.5 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 97.8% 1.4    1.3 0.1
15-1 91.9% 2.3    2.1 0.3
14-2 77.0% 3.2    2.4 0.7 0.0
13-3 57.2% 3.7    2.3 1.2 0.2 0.0
12-4 30.7% 2.6    0.9 1.2 0.3 0.0
11-5 8.6% 0.8    0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
10-6 1.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 14.2% 14.2 9.3 3.9 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 1.5% 50.1% 50.1% 18.3 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.7
15-1 2.5% 37.7% 37.7% 17.8 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.6
14-2 4.2% 31.3% 31.3% 17.5 0.0 0.1 1.3 2.9
13-3 6.5% 25.9% 25.9% 17.1 0.0 1.8 4.8
12-4 8.3% 18.7% 18.7% 16.3 0.0 1.6 6.8
11-5 9.6% 13.1% 13.1% 16.2 1.3 8.4
10-6 10.9% 8.8% 8.8% 16.0 1.0 10.0
9-7 11.3% 6.4% 6.4% 16.0 0.7 10.6
8-8 10.8% 3.8% 3.8% 16.0 0.4 10.4
7-9 9.8% 3.1% 3.1% 16.0 0.3 9.5
6-10 8.4% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.1 8.3
5-11 6.4% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 6.3
4-12 4.5% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 4.5
3-13 2.6% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 2.6
2-14 1.4% 1.4
1-15 0.6% 0.6
0-16 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 10.1% 10.1% 0.0% 16.8 0.1 0.5 10.1 89.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%