East Tennessee St.
Southern
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+2.8#123
Expected Predictive Rating+0.3#162
Pace66.8#255
Improvement+1.7#73

Offense
Total Offense+1.7#123
First Shot+3.2#86
After Offensive Rebound-1.5#275
Layup/Dunks+5.2#37
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#189
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#224
Freethrows-0.6#221
Improvement+2.2#36

Defense
Total Defense+1.0#128
First Shot-1.5#228
After Offensive Rebounds+2.5#26
Layups/Dunks+3.4#69
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#109
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.7#334
Freethrows-1.2#269
Improvement-0.5#216
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 36.2% 37.5% 28.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.7 13.6 14.1
.500 or above 99.2% 99.5% 96.9%
.500 or above in Conference 98.2% 98.5% 96.4%
Conference Champion 52.8% 54.2% 43.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four0.2% 0.1% 0.3%
First Round36.1% 37.4% 28.1%
Second Round2.9% 3.1% 1.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.6% 0.6% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Jacksonville St. (Home) - 86.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 14 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 34 - 34 - 6
Quad 418 - 322 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Sat, Nov 8 280 @Presbyterian L 64-68 72%     0 - 1 -7.3 -3.1 -4.6
  Wed, Nov 12 196 Northern Kentucky W 75-63 78%     1 - 1 +6.7 -2.5 +8.9
  Sat, Nov 15 214 @North Alabama W 78-74 62%     2 - 1 +3.6 +7.5 -3.8
  Fri, Nov 21 310 Morehead St. W 77-62 90%     3 - 1 +3.4 +5.2 -0.6
  Sun, Nov 23 355 Louisiana Monroe W 97-55 95%     4 - 1 +25.2 +16.9 +8.8
  Sat, Nov 29 283 Central Arkansas W 80-57 87%     5 - 1 +13.6 +2.7 +10.3
  Tue, Dec 2 61 @Dayton L 71-88 19%     5 - 2 -5.1 +1.3 -5.5
  Fri, Dec 5 185 South Alabama W 91-65 76%     6 - 2 +21.2 +18.4 +3.4
  Fri, Dec 12 190 @Austin Peay L 75-76 57%     6 - 3 +0.0 +5.6 -5.7
  Tue, Dec 16 22 @North Carolina L 58-77 8%     6 - 4 -0.5 +3.1 -6.4
  Sat, Dec 20 271 Jacksonville St. W 73-61 86%    
  Wed, Dec 31 354 @The Citadel W 78-65 89%    
  Sat, Jan 3 173 Mercer W 79-72 73%    
  Wed, Jan 7 333 VMI W 81-65 93%    
  Sat, Jan 10 293 UNC Greensboro W 79-66 88%    
  Wed, Jan 14 301 @Western Carolina W 78-71 75%    
  Sat, Jan 17 233 @Samford W 76-72 64%    
  Wed, Jan 21 246 @Chattanooga W 75-70 67%    
  Sat, Jan 24 354 The Citadel W 81-62 96%    
  Thu, Jan 29 301 Western Carolina W 81-68 89%    
  Sat, Jan 31 223 @Wofford W 74-71 62%    
  Wed, Feb 4 152 Furman W 74-69 68%    
  Sat, Feb 7 333 @VMI W 78-68 82%    
  Wed, Feb 11 246 Chattanooga W 78-67 83%    
  Sat, Feb 14 233 Samford W 79-69 81%    
  Wed, Feb 18 152 @Furman L 71-72 47%    
  Sat, Feb 21 293 @UNC Greensboro W 76-69 73%    
  Wed, Feb 25 223 Wofford W 77-68 80%    
  Sat, Feb 28 173 @Mercer W 76-75 53%    
Projected Record 21 - 8 14 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.0 4.8 11.1 14.5 12.5 6.7 2.0 52.8 1st
2nd 0.1 1.1 5.0 8.1 6.3 2.2 0.3 23.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.8 3.7 4.7 2.4 0.3 0.0 12.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 2.0 2.6 1.0 0.1 6.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.5 0.5 0.0 3.2 5th
6th 0.1 0.6 0.8 0.2 0.0 1.7 6th
7th 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.5 4.6 8.1 11.7 15.4 17.7 16.8 12.8 6.7 2.0 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 2.0    2.0
17-1 100.0% 6.7    6.6 0.1
16-2 97.8% 12.5    11.6 0.9 0.0
15-3 86.6% 14.5    11.2 3.3 0.1
14-4 62.9% 11.1    6.2 4.3 0.6 0.0
13-5 31.2% 4.8    1.6 2.3 0.9 0.1 0.0
12-6 8.3% 1.0    0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
11-7 1.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 52.8% 52.8 39.3 11.3 2.0 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 2.0% 61.4% 61.4% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.6 0.1 0.8
17-1 6.7% 54.8% 54.8% 12.6 0.1 1.6 1.7 0.3 0.0 3.0
16-2 12.8% 50.3% 50.3% 13.2 0.0 1.0 3.5 1.8 0.1 6.4
15-3 16.8% 43.5% 43.5% 13.5 0.3 3.1 3.3 0.5 0.0 9.5
14-4 17.7% 38.1% 38.1% 13.9 0.1 1.9 3.6 1.1 0.0 11.0
13-5 15.4% 32.0% 32.0% 14.3 0.0 0.6 2.5 1.7 0.1 10.4
12-6 11.7% 25.5% 25.5% 14.5 0.0 0.2 1.2 1.4 0.2 8.7
11-7 8.1% 20.4% 20.4% 14.8 0.0 0.4 1.0 0.2 6.4
10-8 4.6% 17.9% 17.9% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.2 3.7
9-9 2.5% 12.6% 12.6% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 2.2
8-10 1.1% 11.0% 11.0% 15.7 0.0 0.1 1.0
7-11 0.5% 7.4% 7.4% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.4
6-12 0.2% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.0 0.2
5-13 0.0% 0.0
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 36.2% 36.2% 0.0% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 3.6 11.1 13.3 6.5 1.0 63.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.2% 100.0% 11.4 0.3 0.3 0.6 3.7 47.0 45.0 3.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.4%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3%