Florida International
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -2.4 197
Expected Predictive Rating -4.1 231
Pace 77.7 13
Improvement -2.4 281

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- 209 C C+ C C- C+
Defense C 196 C D B+ C D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% 24 C- 56% 231 +3.2 83
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% 174 C- 37% 212 -0.2 190
Three Pointers 34% 322 C 34% 161 -3.5 302
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ +0.5 122 C- -1.0 207
1st FG Attempt C 1.01 190
Second Chance C+ 32.1% 139 C+ 1.06 132 C+ 0.34 110
Turnovers C 17.1% 187
Freethrows C+ 0.31 159 D 68% 321 C- 0.21 210
Total Offense C- -1.6 209

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% 264 C 58% 164 +1.7 116
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% 343 D- 43% 331 +1.7 57
Three Pointers 49% 12 C+ 33% 130 -3.6 323
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ +0.6 269 C -0.1 177
1st FG Attempt C 1.03 190
Second Chance D- 35.6% 338 C 1.04 199 D 0.37 311
Turnovers B+ 20.1% 32
Freethrows C 0.31 192 C 72% 179 C 0.22 193
Total Defense C -0.8 196

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 14.6 6 17.6 235
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.24 36 0.17 185
Improvement -3.0 #320 +0.5 #155

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2% 3% 2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 15.5 15.3 15.8
.500 or above 4% 6% 1%
.500 or above in Conference 3% 5% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 29% 20% 47%
First Four1% 1% 1%
First Round2% 2% 1%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Louisiana Tech (Home) - 63.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 21 - 5
Quad 33 - 74 - 12
Quad 48 - 512 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 15 @Nebraska L 66 - 96 2% -21  2% 0 - 1 D -9 D+ -4 D+ A- F C- -2 F D- A+
 Thu, Nov 13 57 @LSU L 81 - 98 9% -10  1% 0 - 2 C- -4 C+ +2 C- B B+ D+ -4 B F B
 Mon, Nov 24 223 James Madison L 72 - 80 65% +1  60% 0 - 3 D- -14 D -6 D D B D- -9 A+ F D
 Wed, Nov 26 242 Nebraska Omaha W 74 - 61 69% +8  94% 1 - 3 B- +5 F+ -9 D- C- A A+ +14 A+ F A+
 Wed, Dec 3 245 Florida Gulf Coast W 89 - 83 69% +6  86% 2 - 3 C -2 C+ +3 D+ B+ C- D+ -5 B- D- C+
 Sat, Dec 6 309 Jacksonville W 88 - 65 82% +18  95% 3 - 3 B +11 A- +10 A+ D C- C+ +2 B F A+
 Tue, Dec 16 41 @Miami (FL) L 81 - 98 5% -6  10% 3 - 4 C -1 B +7 B B C+ D -7 F+ C- C
 Sat, Dec 20 205 LIU Brooklyn W 86 - 79 62% +2  46% 4 - 4 C +1 C+ +3 A D+ D+ C- -2 C- C+ A
 Sun, Dec 28 93 Liberty L 94 - 97 OT 32% +0  50% 4 - 5 0 - 1 C -1 B+ +8 C+ A+ C- D- -9 C F C
 Fri, Jan 2 168 New Mexico St. W 89 - 74 54% +11  86% 5 - 5 1 - 1 B+ +12 A- +9 B+ A+ D- C+ +2 F A A+
 Sun, Jan 4 239 UTEP W 76 - 64 68% +2  53% 6 - 5 2 - 1 C+ +5 C+ +2 C A+ C+ B- +3 B- C+ C+
 Wed, Jan 7 184 @Jacksonville St. L 64 - 71 35% -1  34% 6 - 6 2 - 2 D+ -6 D+ -4 C D- D C- -2 F F A+
 Sat, Jan 10 181 @Missouri St. L 71 - 79 35% -6  8% 6 - 7 2 - 3 D+ -6 D -4 F C+ B+ C- -2 C- F A
 Wed, Jan 14 156 @Kennesaw St. L 86 - 89 31% +4  72% 6 - 8 2 - 4 C -0 B +7 D- A+ B D -7 F+ B- D
 Sat, Jan 17 120 Sam Houston St. L 63 - 76 42% -7  3% 6 - 9 2 - 5 D- -13 F -17 F F+ F B +5 C+ B A
 Thu, Jan 22 239 @UTEP L 77 - 83 46% -5  7% 6 - 10 2 - 6 D+ -7 C +1 B+ D- C+ D- -8 F F A
 Sat, Jan 24 168 @New Mexico St. W 81 - 78 32% +4  71% 7 - 10 3 - 6 B- +6 C- -0 C F A+ B +6 A- C+ A
 Wed, Jan 28 184 Jacksonville St. L 74 - 78 58% +4  69% 7 - 11 3 - 7 D -9 F -11 C D F B- +3 D+ A B-
 Wed, Feb 4 167 @Middle Tennessee W 88 - 84 OT 32% +1  58% 8 - 11 4 - 7 B- +7 C +1 C- D+ B- B +5 C+ A+ D+
 Sat, Feb 7 161 @Western Kentucky L 70 - 80 31% +1  55% 8 - 12 4 - 8 D+ -7 C -0 C- C+ C- D- -8 C+ F+ F+
 Thu, Feb 12 273 Delaware L 66 - 68 75% -3  36% 8 - 13 4 - 9 D- -11 F -10 F B+ C- C -1 C- F A
 Sat, Feb 14 213 Louisiana Tech W 73 - 69 64%
 Thu, Feb 19 93 @Liberty L 72 - 83 16%
 Sat, Feb 21 181 Missouri St. W 76 - 74 58%
 Thu, Feb 26 120 @Sam Houston St. L 78 - 86 23%
 Sat, Feb 28 213 @Louisiana Tech L 70 - 72 41%
 Thu, Mar 5 167 Middle Tennessee W 76 - 75 54%
 Sat, Mar 7 161 Western Kentucky W 79 - 78 54%
Totals 11 - 17 7 - 13 -2 F -2 F+ C- C+ C -1 C D C-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- C- C- C C- 45% 21% 34% C+ C C+ C+ C+ C C+ D C- C C D- C+ C 36% 15% 49% D+ C D- C D B+ C C C
1.06 56% 37% 34% -1 0 1.01 32% 1.1 .34 17% .31 68% .21 1.10 58% 43% 33% 0 +1 1.03 36% 1.0 .37 20% .31 72% .23
Nov
8		 Nebraska D+ F A+ D+ F+ 48% 17% 34% A+ D+ A+ C A- F F C- F C- C+ B- F F 37% 10% 53% C- F C- F D- A+ A+ A+ A+
0.86 36% 50% 30% -11 +1 0.83 39% 0.8 .32 26% .11 67% .07 1.25 64% 33% 52% +16 +1 1.36 28% 1.3 .38 20% .13 63% .08
Nov
13		 LSU C+ D+ A+ F D 48% 13% 38% A C- C+ A- B B+ C+ D C D+ D C A+ B 43% 25% 31% B B D F F B F F F
1.04 52% 50% 26% -6 +2 0.93 31% 1.1 .33 13% .31 62% .19 1.26 68% 38% 25% 0 0 1.02 39% 1.8 .68 18% .53 88% .47
Nov
24		 James Madison D F A+ B- D- 38% 15% 47% C+ D B F D B A F C+ D- A+ D A+ A+ 32% 10% 58% D+ A+ F D F D F D F
1.07 30% 63% 36% -5 +1 0.92 35% 0.7 .25 10% .45 59% .26 1.18 38% 40% 21% -18 +1 0.68 51% 1.2 .59 15% .52 73% .38
Nov
26		 Nebraska Omaha F+ C- F B- D 27% 23% 50% F+ D- D B- C- A B- F F+ A+ A+ F A+ A+ 34% 15% 51% D+ A+ F+ F F A+ F B- D-
1.03 60% 23% 36% -2 -1 0.96 25% 1.1 .28 10% .34 50% .17 0.85 38% 57% 21% -14 0 0.74 32% 1.5 .49 28% .38 70% .27
Dec
3		 Florida Gulf Coast C+ D+ F C D 40% 14% 46% B- D+ D+ A+ B+ C- A+ A+ A+ D+ C B+ A A- 49% 11% 40% F B- F B D- C+ F+ F F
1.17 55% 29% 35% -2 +1 1.00 28% 1.4 .41 17% .56 86% .48 1.09 59% 33% 27% -4 +2 0.98 41% 0.9 .38 18% .34 86% .29
Dec
6		 Jacksonville A- B F A+ A+ 48% 18% 34% B- A+ D- C+ D C- A+ A- A+ C+ A+ A- C- B 23% 19% 58% B B F B- F A+ C A- B-
1.29 67% 25% 67% +18 +1 1.41 23% 1.0 .23 16% .52 77% .40 0.95 33% 30% 33% -8 -1 0.85 43% 0.9 .41 26% .28 64% .18
Dec
16		 Miami (FL) B A- A+ F B 43% 26% 30% C+ B A D- B C+ A C- A- D F F B+ F+ 55% 9% 36% F F+ F+ B C- C F D+ F
1.07 65% 50% 25% +2 0 1.06 35% 0.9 .32 18% .34 67% .23 1.29 74% 80% 30% +11 +3 1.29 44% 0.9 .41 16% .49 71% .34
Dec
20		 LIU Brooklyn C+ A+ F B+ A 52% 17% 31% B- A C+ D- D+ D+ A- D+ B C- B- F C C+ 49% 11% 40% F C- F A C+ A C- C C-
1.13 78% 11% 38% +7 +1 1.19 34% 0.9 .31 20% .39 67% .26 1.04 54% 50% 33% -1 +2 1.04 45% 0.7 .33 26% .30 65% .20
Dec
28		 Liberty B+ F A+ B+ C- 60% 16% 24% A C+ A+ C+ A+ C- A+ D+ A+ D- F+ B D+ C- 34% 5% 61% B C F C F C C+ F+ C-
1.22 42% 78% 38% -1 +2 1.04 50% 1.3 .63 18% .37 70% .25 1.26 71% 33% 38% +8 +2 1.21 31% 1.0 .31 13% .24 75% .18
Jan
2		 New Mexico St. A- A- F A+ A- 40% 25% 35% C B+ A A+ A+ D- A- D B C+ D+ F D- F 31% 18% 51% F+ F A+ D+ A A+ A- B+ A-
1.25 68% 25% 41% +5 0 1.10 41% 1.5 .62 18% .45 73% .33 1.04 63% 56% 38% +8 0 1.18 20% 1.0 .20 21% .21 67% .14
Jan
4		 UTEP C+ B+ B- F C- 53% 16% 31% A C B+ A+ A+ C+ A+ F B B- A+ C+ D+ B+ 35% 17% 48% F B- D- A C+ C+ B+ F C
1.14 67% 43% 21% 0 +2 1.04 39% 1.3 .52 18% .49 63% .31 0.96 39% 33% 36% -6 0 0.90 32% 0.8 .24 18% .22 83% .18
Jan
7		 Jacksonville St. D+ C+ B+ F C 46% 23% 31% C C F A- D- D B A- A- C- C F F F 44% 10% 46% C- F F F F A+ D F+ F+
0.99 59% 45% 27% -1 0 1.00 18% 1.2 .21 19% .36 84% .30 1.10 56% 50% 42% +6 +2 1.17 38% 1.2 .46 25% .41 75% .31
Jan
10		 Missouri St. D A D- F F+ 30% 42% 28% D F D+ A C+ B+ D F F C- D+ F B- D+ 14% 20% 66% B C- D F F A F B+ F
0.99 75% 32% 20% -3 -3 0.89 30% 1.3 .38 15% .31 58% .18 1.11 67% 56% 31% +2 -2 1.02 36% 1.5 .55 22% .56 61% .34
Jan
14		 Kennesaw St. B F F A+ F+ 53% 13% 35% B+ D- A+ A A+ B C D+ C- D B- A+ F F 31% 15% 55% B F+ D+ A- B- D F A+ D+
1.16 31% 29% 47% -8 +2 0.89 44% 1.2 .53 14% .39 72% .28 1.21 53% 13% 47% +5 0 1.13 37% 0.8 .30 15% .46 59% .27
Jan
17		 Sam Houston St. F F F A F 37% 21% 42% C F C+ F F+ F A+ F A+ B F B+ B+ C 29% 20% 51% B C+ B- B- B A F A+ D-
0.84 25% 11% 39% -15 0 0.72 32% 0.7 .22 24% .68 62% .42 1.01 73% 30% 31% +1 -1 1.02 33% 0.9 .30 23% .45 54% .24
Jan
22		 UTEP C B+ D A+ A 38% 36% 26% F+ B+ C- F D- C+ A F C+ D- D F+ F F 32% 26% 42% D+ F D+ F F A B- D+ C+
1.07 67% 35% 50% +8 -2 1.15 31% 0.8 .25 18% .46 63% .29 1.16 65% 43% 41% +8 -1 1.15 29% 1.3 .39 22% .25 71% .18
Jan
24		 New Mexico St. C- C A+ F C 39% 19% 42% B- C F D- F A+ B- F D+ B A+ A+ C- A 30% 28% 43% C+ A- F A+ C+ A F B+ F
1.07 59% 55% 25% -2 0 0.98 20% 1.0 .20 8% .40 68% .27 1.03 44% 27% 35% -7 -2 0.85 43% 0.7 .29 20% .45 67% .30
Jan
28		 Jacksonville St. F C+ C+ F+ C- 50% 10% 40% A- C D- C- D F B D- C+ B- F A A+ C- 62% 8% 30% F D+ A+ C- A B- F C F
0.93 58% 40% 29% -3 +2 1.00 22% 1.0 .22 24% .36 73% .26 0.98 68% 25% 20% -1 +3 1.06 18% 1.0 .18 20% .50 69% .34
Feb
4		 Middle Tennessee C D C A C 48% 34% 18% D- C- C- D- D+ B- A+ D- A+ B D- F B- B- 21% 7% 71% D- C+ A A+ A+ D+ F D F
1.07 52% 37% 40% -2 -1 0.96 25% 0.9 .23 13% .52 70% .37 1.02 67% 50% 33% +1 0 1.05 22% 0.3 .07 15% .47 70% .33
Feb
7		 Western Kentucky C A+ F B C 35% 31% 33% D+ C- C+ C+ C+ C- D A+ C D- C A+ B B- 40% 12% 47% D- C+ F C+ F+ F+ A F B
1.03 71% 20% 38% +1 -2 1.00 30% 0.9 .27 19% .34 79% .27 1.17 52% 14% 30% -8 +1 0.88 44% 0.9 .40 10% .21 85% .18
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
12		 Delaware F F+ F+ F+ F 37% 24% 39% C+ F B- A- B+ C- F C- F C F+ F B C- 31% 10% 58% D C- F F F A C+ B- B-
0.99 50% 31% 29% -8 -1 0.85 33% 1.1 .37 15% .16 78% .12 1.02 67% 60% 32% +3 +1 1.10 31% 1.1 .34 24% .22 73% .16



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.2 0.1 0.4 3rd
4th 0.1 0.9 0.1 1.1 4th
5th 1.0 1.4 0.0 2.4 5th
6th 0.1 3.5 0.5 4.2 6th
7th 1.9 4.5 0.1 6.5 7th
8th 0.4 7.8 2.1 10.3 8th
9th 0.3 6.7 10.0 0.2 17.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 5.8 14.0 3.0 0.0 23.2 10th
11th 0.2 4.3 11.8 6.3 0.2 22.7 11th
12th 1.6 5.6 4.3 0.5 12.0 12th
Total 1.9 10.3 22.1 27.9 22.9 11.5 3.1 0.4 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9 0.4% 14.3% 14.3% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
10-10 3.1% 7.7% 7.7% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 2.8
9-11 11.5% 4.5% 4.5% 14.9 0.1 0.4 0.0 10.9
8-12 22.9% 2.7% 2.7% 15.8 0.1 0.5 22.3
7-13 27.9% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.0 0.6 27.3
6-14 22.1% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.3 21.8
5-15 10.3% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 10.2
4-16 1.9% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 1.9
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 2.4% 2.4% 0.0% 15.5 97.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.3%