Houston Christian
Southland
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.9#274
Expected Predictive Rating-8.3#292
Pace62.4#340
Improvement+0.3#163

Offense
Total Offense-1.3#202
First Shot+0.7#156
After Offensive Rebound-2.0#306
Layup/Dunks+2.7#88
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#303
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#116
Freethrows-1.9#294
Improvement+2.5#28

Defense
Total Defense-4.6#326
First Shot-6.2#350
After Offensive Rebounds+1.6#74
Layups/Dunks-3.7#306
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#106
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.1#351
Freethrows+2.5#47
Improvement-2.2#322
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.0% 2.4% 0.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.1 15.0 15.2
.500 or above 13.3% 28.0% 10.5%
.500 or above in Conference 29.8% 51.4% 25.7%
Conference Champion 0.5% 2.3% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 16.0% 5.7% 17.9%
First Four0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
First Round0.9% 2.1% 0.7%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: McNeese St. (Home) - 15.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 32 - 62 - 11
Quad 49 - 811 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Sat, Nov 8 89 @UC San Diego L 60-78 9%     0 - 1 -9.1 -9.2 +0.0
  Thu, Nov 13 358 Louisiana Monroe W 72-61 85%     1 - 1 -6.3 -9.5 +3.2
  Tue, Nov 25 295 Bellarmine L 69-74 56%     1 - 2 -12.4 -0.7 -12.4
  Wed, Nov 26 361 @The Citadel W 72-65 71%     2 - 2 -4.8 +5.3 -8.7
  Sat, Nov 29 230 @Georgia Southern L 62-80 32%     2 - 3 -19.0 -9.8 -10.0
  Tue, Dec 2 145 @North Texas L 75-77 18%     2 - 4 +1.9 +17.2 -15.5
  Sat, Dec 6 247 @New Orleans W 85-76 34%     3 - 4 1 - 0 +7.2 +15.2 -7.4
  Sat, Dec 13 258 SE Louisiana L 71-74 OT 59%     3 - 5 1 - 1 -11.3 -3.3 -8.0
  Mon, Dec 15 70 McNeese St. L 64-75 16%    
  Wed, Dec 17 259 @Nicholls St. L 68-72 37%    
  Mon, Dec 29 4 @Iowa St. L 57-88 0.2%   
  Sat, Jan 3 191 @Incarnate Word L 67-74 26%    
  Mon, Jan 5 210 TX A&M Corpus Christi W 69-68 51%    
  Sat, Jan 10 140 @Stephen F. Austin L 65-75 17%    
  Mon, Jan 12 223 @Lamar L 63-68 31%    
  Sat, Jan 17 303 East Texas A&M W 73-68 67%    
  Mon, Jan 19 273 Northwestern St. W 72-69 61%    
  Sat, Jan 24 207 UT Rio Grande Valley W 72-71 51%    
  Mon, Jan 26 191 Incarnate Word L 70-71 46%    
  Sat, Jan 31 210 @TX A&M Corpus Christi L 65-71 31%    
  Mon, Feb 2 207 @UT Rio Grande Valley L 68-74 30%    
  Sat, Feb 7 258 @SE Louisiana L 66-70 37%    
  Mon, Feb 9 70 @McNeese St. L 61-78 7%    
  Sat, Feb 14 247 New Orleans W 75-73 56%    
  Mon, Feb 16 259 Nicholls St. W 71-69 59%    
  Sat, Feb 21 273 @Northwestern St. L 69-72 39%    
  Mon, Feb 23 303 @East Texas A&M L 70-71 46%    
  Sat, Feb 28 140 Stephen F. Austin L 68-72 35%    
  Mon, Mar 2 223 Lamar W 66-65 53%    
Projected Record 11 - 18 9 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 2.8 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.8 1.9 1.7 0.8 0.1 0.0 5.3 3rd
4th 0.1 1.0 2.8 2.2 0.7 0.1 0.0 6.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.9 3.6 3.0 0.8 0.1 8.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 3.6 4.0 1.0 0.1 9.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 3.2 5.1 1.4 0.1 10.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.8 5.3 2.3 0.2 0.0 10.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 2.5 5.4 3.0 0.3 0.0 11.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.4 2.4 5.3 3.5 0.6 0.0 12.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.7 4.3 3.2 0.7 0.0 11.8 11th
12th 0.1 0.5 1.5 2.5 3.1 1.7 0.4 0.0 9.9 12th
Total 0.1 0.6 1.7 3.3 6.2 8.7 11.7 12.9 12.8 12.3 10.3 7.7 5.3 3.3 1.9 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0
21-1
20-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-3 91.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0
18-4 80.6% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0
17-5 47.7% 0.1    0.1 0.1 0.0
16-6 17.0% 0.1    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
15-7 4.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-8 0.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-9 0.0%
12-10 0.0%
11-11 0.0%
Total 0.5% 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0
21-1
20-2 0.0% 0.0
19-3 0.0% 0.0 0.0
18-4 0.1% 2.8% 2.8% 14.0 0.0 0.1
17-5 0.3% 15.1% 15.1% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
16-6 0.8% 14.2% 14.2% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.7
15-7 1.9% 8.8% 8.8% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.7
14-8 3.3% 5.3% 5.3% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 3.1
13-9 5.3% 3.3% 3.3% 15.2 0.1 0.0 5.1
12-10 7.7% 1.5% 1.5% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 7.6
11-11 10.3% 0.9% 0.9% 15.8 0.0 0.1 10.2
10-12 12.3% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 12.2
9-13 12.8% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 12.8
8-14 12.9% 12.9
7-15 11.7% 11.7
6-16 8.7% 8.7
5-17 6.2% 6.2
4-18 3.3% 3.3
3-19 1.7% 1.7
2-20 0.6% 0.6
1-21 0.1% 0.1
0-22
Total 100% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 15.1 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.4 99.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%