North Texas
American Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +1.0 #144
Expected Predictive Rating +1.0 #146
Pace 63.0 #328
Improvement +0.6 #156

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #298 D C D+ C+ B
Defense #46 B C- A D- C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 49% #6 1.10 #251 +4.7 #40
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #239 0.55 #360 -2.9 #321
Three Pointers 33% #327 0.85 #347 -6.8 #350
1st FG Attempt 0.92 #319 -5.0 #319
Freethrows 0.34 #74 69% #281 0.23 #128
Second Chance 32.8% #122 1.01 #218 0.33 #146
Turnovers 17.9% #277
Total Offense -4.6 #298

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #165 1.04 #49 +1.9 #116
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #124 0.74 #145 -0.4 #213
Three Pointers 39% #248 0.91 #54 +3.3 #58
1st FG Attempt 0.92 #47 +4.8 #48
Freethrows 0.38 #351 71% #123 0.27 #342
Second Chance 33.2% #293 1.01 #131 0.34 #231
Turnovers 21.3% #10
Total Defense +5.7 #46

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.2% #44 -0.2% #143
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -11.7% #344 -9.2% #38
Possession Length 18.7 #307 17.6 #220
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.21 #79 0.18 #220
Improvement -0.6 #217 +1.2 #106

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.1% 2.7% 1.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.1 12.9 13.5
.500 or above 73.2% 84.9% 59.2%
.500 or above in Conference 50.1% 64.4% 33.1%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round2.1% 2.7% 1.3%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UAB (Home) - 54.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 21 - 61 - 8
Quad 35 - 57 - 13
Quad 410 - 216 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Thu, Nov 6 268 Northwestern St. W 80 - 53 83% +8  1 - 0 +18 +16 A- A+ D +7 C+ A+ A+
 Sun, Nov 9 280 Loyola Chicago W 64 - 62 78% +4  2 - 0 -5 -9 F+ F F +4 A+ C C
 Wed, Nov 12 182 @Oregon St. L 64 - 66 49% +6  2 - 1 -1 -2 C+ C+ F +1 B+ B- D-
 Fri, Nov 14 42 @St. Mary's L 49 - 80 10% -23  2 - 2 -16 -14 F D- B -4 A+ F A+
 Thu, Nov 20 219 Central Arkansas W 74 - 56 76% +5  3 - 2 +12 -1 F D+ B+ +13 A- A A+
 Tue, Nov 25 241 Eastern Washington W 79 - 71 OT 79% +2  4 - 2 +1 -2 F C+ B- +3 B+ B- B
 Sun, Nov 30 345 Prairie View W 72 - 69 92% -2  5 - 2 -12 -8 B- F F -4 C- D C+
 Tue, Dec 2 300 Houston Christian W 77 - 75 87% +1  6 - 2 -9 +7 A+ B- F -15 F A+ F
 Sun, Dec 7 45 TCU L 55 - 65 24% -2  6 - 3 -1 -9 D- C- C- +7 A+ F+ A+
 Sun, Dec 14 192 @South Alabama W 58 - 57 50% +4  7 - 3 +2 -7 F B- F +9 A+ F B+
 Wed, Dec 17 50 Santa Clara L 60 - 63 18% +2  7 - 4 +8 -6 F A+ B +14 A+ F A+
 Wed, Dec 31 100 @Memphis L 48 - 57 25% -8  7 - 5 0 - 1 -1 -14 F C F +13 C B- A+
 Sun, Jan 4 70 Tulsa W 72 - 67 35% -0  8 - 5 1 - 1 +10 +6 C- A- B+ +4 A+ D- A+
 Wed, Jan 7 67 South Florida L 70 - 74 33% -0  8 - 6 1 - 2 +1 +1 C+ B- C +1 B- F+ A+
 Sun, Jan 11 99 @Wichita St. L 67 - 78 25% -8  8 - 7 1 - 3 -3 -3 F+ B C- +0 F B+ A+
 Sun, Jan 18 175 @Tulane W 71 - 63 48% +6  9 - 7 2 - 3 +10 +2 D+ D- F +8 A+ C B-
 Wed, Jan 21 341 Texas San Antonio W 81 - 62 92% +14  10 - 7 3 - 3 +4 +4 C- A+ D- +1 C A+ A
 Fri, Jan 23 262 East Carolina L 59 - 63 82% -3  10 - 8 3 - 4 -13 -10 F C- A+ -3 C+ F A+
 Wed, Jan 28 70 @Tulsa L 66 - 82 17% -4  10 - 9 3 - 5 -5 -6 D- D- D+ +1 B D A-
 Sat, Jan 31 118 UAB W 68 - 67 54%
 Wed, Feb 4 230 @Rice W 66 - 64 57%
 Sat, Feb 7 341 @Texas San Antonio W 72 - 62 81%
 Thu, Feb 12 100 Memphis L 64 - 65 46%
 Sun, Feb 15 147 @Temple L 64 - 67 39%
 Wed, Feb 18 175 Tulane W 68 - 63 70%
 Sun, Feb 22 101 Florida Atlantic L 68 - 69 46%
 Wed, Feb 25 165 @Charlotte L 64 - 65 44%
 Sun, Mar 1 118 @UAB L 65 - 70 33%
 Wed, Mar 4 230 Rice W 69 - 61 77%
Totals 15 - 14 8 - 10 +1 -5 D C D+ +6 B C- A




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.1 0.6 0.3 1.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.0 1.6 0.1 2.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 3.9 0.8 5.5 4th
5th 0.3 4.8 3.0 0.0 8.1 5th
6th 0.1 3.0 6.8 0.6 10.5 6th
7th 1.5 9.1 3.2 0.0 13.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 8.3 7.6 0.5 17.2 8th
9th 0.0 1.2 7.7 10.1 1.7 20.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.6 4.9 6.4 1.4 0.0 13.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 1.9 3.0 0.8 0.0 6.1 11th
12th 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.9 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 13th
Total 0.1 0.7 2.9 9.2 15.6 21.4 21.8 16.2 8.6 3.1 0.5 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 6.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.5% 13.4% 13.4% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.4
12-6 3.1% 11.4% 11.4% 12.3 0.0 0.2 0.1 2.8
11-7 8.6% 4.6% 4.6% 12.7 0.2 0.2 0.0 8.2
10-8 16.2% 2.9% 2.9% 12.8 0.2 0.3 0.1 15.7
9-9 21.8% 1.6% 1.6% 13.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 21.4
8-10 21.4% 1.4% 1.4% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 21.1
7-11 15.6% 0.8% 0.8% 14.8 0.0 0.1 15.5
6-12 9.2% 0.3% 0.3% 15.3 0.0 0.0 9.2
5-13 2.9% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 2.9
4-14 0.7% 0.7
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 2.1% 2.1% 0.0% 13.1 97.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%