Incarnate Word
Southland
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -4.5 #240
Expected Predictive Rating -6.9 #280
Pace 65.3 #274
Improvement -4.3 #334

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #225 D+ C- B D D+
Defense #252 C- D C D- D-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #274 1.00 #343 -4.7 #330
2 Pt. Jumpers 26% #78 0.76 #168 +2.1 #72
Three Pointers 39% #231 1.03 #171 -0.9 #215
1st FG Attempt 0.95 #286 -3.5 #286
Freethrows 0.26 #295 69% #294 0.18 #310
Second Chance 30.6% #179 0.97 #277 0.30 #220
Turnovers 14.4% #67
Total Offense -2.1 #225

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 47% #12 1.21 #256 -6.0 #351
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #279 0.86 #321 +0.4 #162
Three Pointers 36% #312 0.97 #120 +3.4 #57
1st FG Attempt 1.06 #258 -2.3 #257
Freethrows 0.37 #338 73% #234 0.27 #338
Second Chance 33.0% #284 1.14 #300 0.38 #309
Turnovers 16.6% #170
Total Defense -2.4 #252

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.9% #304 2.0% #343
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -5.1% #263 2.3% #224
Possession Length 18.5 #288 16.7 #73
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 #266 0.23 #342
Improvement -5.0 #358 +0.7 #139

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.5% 0.6% 0.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.6 15.5 15.8
.500 or above 2.7% 4.6% 0.6%
.500 or above in Conference 11.0% 17.1% 4.2%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 10.6% 5.4% 16.3%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round0.4% 0.6% 0.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UT Rio Grande Valley (Home) - 52.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 21 - 31 - 5
Quad 31 - 62 - 11
Quad 49 - 711 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 99 @Colorado St. L 64 - 98 12% -18  0 - 1 -26 -4 D- F A+ -24 F F D-
 Sun, Nov 16 31 @Indiana L 61 - 69 3% -10  0 - 2 +10 +0 C C- A- +8 A+ C B-
 Thu, Nov 20 324 Southern Indiana W 87 - 81 71% +8  1 - 2 -4 +10 A- C+ C+ -14 F B- D-
 Sat, Nov 22 100 High Point L 80 - 91 19% -5  1 - 3 -6 +11 D A A- -18 D+ F C-
 Mon, Dec 1 81 McNeese St. W 71 - 67 21% +5  2 - 3 1 - 0 +8 +4 B A- C+ +4 B F A+
 Sat, Dec 6 253 @Nicholls St. L 67 - 74 42% -3  2 - 4 1 - 1 -9 -2 F A+ A -8 D C+ F+
 Mon, Dec 8 220 @New Orleans L 83 - 84 35% -8  2 - 5 1 - 2 -1 +9 B+ A- D+ -10 F A- A+
 Mon, Dec 15 46 @TCU L 65 - 69 5% +4  2 - 6 +11 +7 B+ D+ C+ +3 A+ F+ D
 Sun, Dec 21 306 Northern Arizona W 90 - 66 75% +10  3 - 6 +13 +12 B- C+ A+ +1 F A+ B+
 Tue, Dec 30 264 SE Louisiana W 79 - 70 66% +4  4 - 6 2 - 2 +0 +3 C B- B+ -3 B C C-
 Sat, Jan 3 302 Houston Christian W 73 - 56 74% +9  5 - 6 3 - 2 +6 -4 F F+ A +11 A- A+ B+
 Mon, Jan 5 191 @UT Rio Grande Valley L 67 - 80 30% -8  5 - 7 3 - 3 -12 +2 F+ C- A -15 C- F D
 Sat, Jan 10 207 @Lamar L 51 - 63 32% -5  5 - 8 3 - 4 -12 -13 C- F D -0 C B+ B+
 Mon, Jan 12 108 @Stephen F. Austin L 46 - 56 14% -7  5 - 9 3 - 5 -3 -19 F F D +16 A+ D+ B
 Sat, Jan 17 269 Northwestern St. W 76 - 74 67% -4  6 - 9 4 - 5 -7 +2 F A+ F+ -8 F B- B
 Mon, Jan 19 311 East Texas A&M L 58 - 80 76% -11  6 - 10 4 - 6 -34 -9 F C- A+ -29 F F F
 Sat, Jan 24 189 TX A&M Corpus Christi L 71 - 79 52% -10  6 - 11 4 - 7 -13 +1 A- D- F -14 F F A
 Tue, Jan 27 302 @Houston Christian L 75 - 81 53% +6  6 - 12 4 - 8 -11 -4 C- D F -7 B- F B-
 Sat, Jan 31 191 UT Rio Grande Valley W 70 - 69 52%
 Mon, Feb 2 189 @TX A&M Corpus Christi L 65 - 70 30%
 Sat, Feb 7 81 @McNeese St. L 64 - 79 9%
 Mon, Feb 9 264 @SE Louisiana L 67 - 69 44%
 Sat, Feb 14 253 Nicholls St. W 75 - 71 64%
 Mon, Feb 16 220 New Orleans W 78 - 76 59%
 Sat, Feb 21 311 @East Texas A&M W 72 - 71 56%
 Mon, Feb 23 269 @Northwestern St. L 71 - 73 45%
 Sat, Feb 28 207 Lamar W 69 - 68 55%
 Mon, Mar 2 108 Stephen F. Austin L 67 - 72 31%
Totals 10 - 18 8 - 14 -4 -2 D+ C- B -2 C- D C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.2 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.1 3rd
4th 0.2 1.8 1.4 0.2 3.6 4th
5th 0.0 2.5 3.5 0.5 0.1 6.5 5th
6th 0.0 1.7 5.5 1.9 0.0 9.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.9 7.9 5.7 0.5 15.1 7th
8th 0.8 7.8 10.9 1.2 0.0 20.7 8th
9th 0.5 4.9 10.8 2.1 0.0 18.4 9th
10th 0.2 2.4 7.0 3.1 0.1 12.9 10th
11th 0.0 1.1 4.2 3.0 0.1 8.3 11th
12th 0.5 1.8 1.9 0.2 0.0 4.3 12th
Total 0.5 3.0 8.9 15.9 22.8 22.8 15.1 7.9 2.6 0.5 0.0 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4
17-5
16-6
15-7
14-8 0.0%
13-9 0.0%
12-10 0.0%
11-11 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4
17-5
16-6
15-7
14-8 0.0% 0.0
13-9 0.5% 2.1% 2.1% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.5
12-10 2.6% 2.7% 2.7% 15.1 0.1 0.0 2.5
11-11 7.9% 2.0% 2.0% 15.5 0.1 0.1 7.7
10-12 15.1% 1.0% 1.0% 15.8 0.0 0.1 15.0
9-13 22.8% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 22.7
8-14 22.8% 22.8
7-15 15.9% 15.9
6-16 8.9% 8.9
5-17 3.0% 3.0
4-18 0.5% 0.5
3-19
2-20
1-21
0-22
Total 100% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 15.6 99.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.5%