Manhattan
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -10.3 #328
Expected Predictive Rating -9.0 #313
Pace 69.8 #156
Improvement -0.2 #194

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #237 D+ D+ C+ C+ C-
Defense #357 D- F+ C- B C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #215 1.02 #329 -3.4 #300
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #122 0.81 #99 +1.6 #91
Three Pointers 40% #213 0.96 #256 -1.8 #251
1st FG Attempt 0.95 #289 -3.6 #289
Freethrows 0.29 #219 80% #7 0.23 #133
Second Chance 26.5% #294 0.98 #253 0.26 #295
Turnovers 15.9% #145
Total Offense -2.4 #237

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #133 1.24 #285 -2.8 #276
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #242 0.81 #278 +0.3 #170
Three Pointers 41% #179 1.21 #361 -4.1 #329
1st FG Attempt 1.15 #348 -6.6 #350
Freethrows 0.25 #37 72% #199 0.18 #38
Second Chance 38.3% #359 1.09 #253 0.42 #353
Turnovers 15.5% #238
Total Defense -7.9 #357

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.8% #246 0.8% #244
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -6.1% #287 11.9% #355
Possession Length 17.9 #234 16.4 #39
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 #287 0.20 #265
Improvement -1.1 #244 +0.9 #133

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.4% 0.8% 0.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.5% 1.6% 0.1%
.500 or above in Conference 12.6% 27.2% 6.4%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.8% 0.0% 1.1%
First Four0.3% 0.6% 0.2%
First Round0.3% 0.5% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Mount St. Mary's (Away) - 29.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 31 - 71 - 10
Quad 410 - 1011 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sun, Nov 9 44 @USC L 83 - 114 2% -16  0 - 1 -16 +6 C+ D B+ -18 C F C-
 Wed, Nov 12 218 Utah Tech W 79 - 75 25% +3  1 - 1 +1 +11 B- B+ D- -10 B F F+
 Fri, Nov 14 103 @Hawaii L 56 - 86 6% -15  1 - 2 -22 -11 C- F C -10 C F F
 Sat, Nov 15 365 Mississippi Valley W 80 - 73 89% +5  2 - 2 -17 +6 C+ B F -23 F F B
 Fri, Nov 21 30 @Texas A&M L 68 - 109 1% -21  2 - 3 -23 -1 B- F D+ -20 F C F+
 Wed, Nov 26 329 Wagner L 101 - 103 OT 62% +8  2 - 4 -15 +11 C- B+ B- -26 F F C
 Sat, Nov 29 334 @Army L 78 - 81 OT 41% -3  2 - 5 -11 -5 F C C -6 F+ C- B
 Fri, Dec 5 269 Fairfield W 70 - 66 45% +4  3 - 5 1 - 0 -5 -11 F+ F+ F +6 B B- A+
 Sun, Dec 7 164 @Marist L 68 - 80 12% -3  3 - 6 1 - 1 -9 -3 C F C- -5 C D- D+
 Sat, Dec 13 192 @Fordham L 53 - 82 15% -11  3 - 7 -28 -13 F D+ C -17 F F+ C
 Thu, Dec 18 159 Furman L 68 - 75 24% -2  3 - 8 -10 -6 C- D+ D -4 D+ D- A-
 Sun, Dec 21 255 Presbyterian W 87 - 81 43% +3  4 - 8 -2 +9 A- D A- -12 D D D-
 Mon, Dec 29 352 @Rider W 74 - 71 50% -2  5 - 8 2 - 1 -7 +2 F C+ D- -9 D+ F C
 Fri, Jan 2 190 Quinnipiac W 80 - 79 31% -8  6 - 8 3 - 1 -4 +4 B- F B- -8 B- F A
 Sun, Jan 4 209 @Merrimack L 66 - 73 17% -4  6 - 9 3 - 2 -7 -3 D+ F A+ -5 F B D
 Fri, Jan 9 339 Canisius L 64 - 70 65% +1  6 - 10 3 - 3 -20 -10 D- F D- -10 D+ C- F
 Sun, Jan 11 345 Niagara W 79 - 70 67% -1  7 - 10 4 - 3 -6 +12 F A+ A+ -16 F B C-
 Wed, Jan 14 269 @Fairfield L 62 - 98 24% -20  7 - 11 4 - 4 -39 -15 F D F+ -22 F D D+
 Sat, Jan 17 175 Siena L 59 - 74 28% -12  7 - 12 4 - 5 -19 -9 F D- A- -12 F B B-
 Mon, Jan 19 190 @Quinnipiac L 92 - 98 OT 15% +1  7 - 13 4 - 6 -5 +9 C- C+ B+ -13 D- F C
 Sat, Jan 24 231 @Iona L 57 - 66 19% -8  7 - 14 4 - 7 -10 -10 F D C- -1 C C C+
 Fri, Jan 30 352 Rider W 95 - 90 71% +2  8 - 14 5 - 7 -11 +18 A C- C -29 F F F
 Sun, Feb 1 295 @Mount St. Mary's L 72 - 78 30%
 Thu, Feb 5 227 St. Peter's L 70 - 74 36%
 Sat, Feb 7 270 Sacred Heart L 81 - 82 44%
 Fri, Feb 13 345 @Niagara L 71 - 72 44%
 Sun, Feb 15 339 @Canisius L 71 - 73 42%
 Fri, Feb 20 164 Marist L 68 - 75 26%
 Fri, Feb 27 227 @St. Peter's L 67 - 77 19%
 Sun, Mar 1 231 Iona L 76 - 79 37%
Totals 11 - 19 8 - 12 -10 -2 D+ D+ C+ -8 D- F+ C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 4th
5th 0.2 0.9 0.3 0.0 1.3 5th
6th 0.2 2.3 1.4 0.1 4.1 6th
7th 0.1 2.6 4.1 0.4 7.3 7th
8th 0.1 2.9 7.9 2.2 0.0 13.2 8th
9th 0.1 3.8 12.1 5.9 0.3 22.2 9th
10th 0.4 6.3 16.3 9.9 0.8 0.0 33.6 10th
11th 2.4 7.4 4.5 0.5 14.8 11th
12th 1.7 1.2 0.1 3.0 12th
13th 0.1 0.0 0.1 13th
Total 4.6 15.0 24.9 25.5 17.5 9.0 2.9 0.6 0.1 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.1% 0.0 0.1
12-8 0.6% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.0 0.6
11-9 2.9% 2.7% 2.7% 15.9 0.0 0.1 2.9
10-10 9.0% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 8.9
9-11 17.5% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 17.4
8-12 25.5% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 25.4
7-13 24.9% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.1 24.8
6-14 15.0% 15.0
5-15 4.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 4.6
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 16.0 99.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 4.3%