Manhattan
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-9.5#321
Expected Predictive Rating-9.6#308
Pace70.0#171
Improvement-1.0#252

Offense
Total Offense-1.7#214
First Shot-0.3#180
After Offensive Rebound-1.4#266
Layup/Dunks-2.4#264
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#236
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#163
Freethrows+2.8#40
Improvement-3.3#360

Defense
Total Defense-7.8#357
First Shot-5.6#342
After Offensive Rebounds-2.2#316
Layups/Dunks-5.2#334
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#253
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.1#294
Freethrows+3.4#18
Improvement+2.3#33
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.0% 1.5% 0.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 8.6% 17.2% 5.6%
.500 or above in Conference 30.5% 38.3% 27.9%
Conference Champion 0.5% 0.8% 0.4%
Last Place in Conference 8.2% 6.0% 8.9%
First Four0.7% 0.9% 0.6%
First Round0.6% 1.0% 0.5%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Furman (Home) - 25.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 31 - 61 - 9
Quad 410 - 1111 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Sun, Nov 9 37 @USC L 83-114 2%     0 - 1 -15.6 +4.8 -15.9
  Wed, Nov 12 263 Utah Tech W 79-75 35%     1 - 1 -1.5 +10.8 -12.1
  Fri, Nov 14 110 @Hawaii L 56-86 8%     1 - 2 -23.5 -11.4 -11.1
  Sat, Nov 15 365 Mississippi Valley W 80-73 89%     2 - 2 -16.0 +5.3 -20.7
  Fri, Nov 21 46 @Texas A&M L 68-109 2%     2 - 3 -26.8 -3.0 -21.3
  Wed, Nov 26 303 Wagner L 101-103 OT 55%     2 - 4 -12.8 +14.1 -26.7
  Sat, Nov 29 332 @Army L 78-81 OT 42%     2 - 5 -10.4 -2.1 -8.2
  Fri, Dec 5 298 Fairfield W 70-66 53%     3 - 5 1 - 0 -6.4 -10.0 +3.5
  Sun, Dec 7 161 @Marist L 68-80 13%     3 - 6 1 - 1 -9.1 -4.0 -4.2
  Sat, Dec 13 199 @Fordham L 53-82 17%     3 - 7 -28.5 -14.7 -16.0
  Thu, Dec 18 151 Furman L 73-80 25%    
  Sun, Dec 21 258 Presbyterian L 69-70 46%    
  Mon, Dec 29 348 @Rider L 70-71 47%    
  Fri, Jan 2 168 Quinnipiac L 77-83 30%    
  Sun, Jan 4 270 @Merrimack L 69-76 27%    
  Fri, Jan 9 339 Canisius W 72-67 66%    
  Sun, Jan 11 352 Niagara W 76-69 73%    
  Wed, Jan 14 298 @Fairfield L 74-79 32%    
  Sat, Jan 17 165 Siena L 70-76 29%    
  Mon, Jan 19 168 @Quinnipiac L 74-86 15%    
  Sat, Jan 24 173 @Iona L 75-87 15%    
  Fri, Jan 30 348 Rider W 73-68 69%    
  Sun, Feb 1 300 @Mount St. Mary's L 73-78 33%    
  Thu, Feb 5 290 St. Peter's W 72-71 52%    
  Sat, Feb 7 269 Sacred Heart L 80-81 48%    
  Fri, Feb 13 352 @Niagara W 73-72 52%    
  Sun, Feb 15 339 @Canisius L 69-70 45%    
  Fri, Feb 20 161 Marist L 69-75 28%    
  Fri, Feb 27 290 @St. Peter's L 69-74 32%    
  Sun, Mar 1 173 Iona L 78-84 31%    
Projected Record 11 - 19 8 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.1 0.6 0.1 0.0 2.5 3rd
4th 0.1 0.9 1.8 1.3 0.3 0.0 4.3 4th
5th 0.1 1.3 3.0 2.4 0.5 0.0 7.3 5th
6th 0.1 1.6 3.9 3.3 0.7 0.0 9.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.6 5.0 4.3 1.1 0.0 12.1 7th
8th 0.1 1.4 5.4 5.2 1.3 0.1 13.5 8th
9th 0.1 1.1 5.0 5.8 1.9 0.2 14.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.9 4.2 5.5 2.0 0.2 12.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.8 3.2 4.6 1.7 0.2 0.0 10.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.5 2.2 2.9 1.4 0.2 7.3 12th
13th 0.1 0.5 1.3 1.6 0.6 0.1 0.0 4.2 13th
Total 0.1 0.6 1.9 4.6 7.7 11.6 13.9 15.1 14.0 11.1 8.4 5.5 3.1 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-3 58.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0
16-4 65.1% 0.1    0.1 0.1 0.0
15-5 27.7% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-6 7.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.5% 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.0% 0.0
18-2 0.0% 0.0
17-3 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1
16-4 0.2% 7.9% 7.9% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.2
15-5 0.6% 8.4% 8.4% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.5
14-6 1.5% 6.1% 6.1% 15.9 0.0 0.1 1.4
13-7 3.1% 4.7% 4.7% 15.9 0.0 0.1 3.0
12-8 5.5% 3.5% 3.5% 15.9 0.0 0.2 5.3
11-9 8.4% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.0 0.1 8.3
10-10 11.1% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 11.0
9-11 14.0% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 13.9
8-12 15.1% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 15.1
7-13 13.9% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 13.9
6-14 11.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 11.6
5-15 7.7% 7.7
4-16 4.6% 4.6
3-17 1.9% 1.9
2-18 0.6% 0.6
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20
Total 100% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 15.9 0.1 0.9 99.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%