Maryland Baltimore Co.
America East
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -5.6 #260
Expected Predictive Rating -6.3 #264
Pace 66.4 #248
Improvement +1.2 #129

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #230 C- D- C+ D+ C-
Defense #283 D+ C D- A C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #240 1.19 #131 -0.6 #195
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #119 0.74 #194 +0.9 #127
Three Pointers 40% #193 0.95 #262 -1.7 #240
1st FG Attempt 0.99 #217 -1.3 #218
Freethrows 0.26 #303 72% #186 0.19 #290
Second Chance 22.1% #353 1.04 #181 0.23 #342
Turnovers 15.7% #126
Total Offense -2.2 #230

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% #32 1.20 #251 -4.4 #324
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #185 0.77 #195 +0.0 #185
Three Pointers 35% #335 1.12 #304 +1.2 #136
1st FG Attempt 1.08 #286 -3.2 #284
Freethrows 0.21 #9 66% #5 0.14 #4
Second Chance 28.4% #104 1.12 #284 0.32 #177
Turnovers 12.9% #346
Total Defense -3.4 #283

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.0% #254 0.9% #257
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -1.7% #200 5.6% #287
Possession Length 16.9 #126 17.9 #268
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 #188 0.13 #48
Improvement +0.6 #145 +0.6 #150

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 22.0% 23.9% 19.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.8 16.0
.500 or above 93.6% 97.7% 88.9%
.500 or above in Conference 97.8% 99.5% 95.9%
Conference Champion 20.0% 28.2% 10.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four12.3% 11.9% 12.8%
First Round16.5% 18.6% 14.2%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Albany (Away) - 52.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 30 - 10 - 5
Quad 417 - 717 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 84 @Dayton L 71 - 77 8% -4  0 - 1 +4 +10 C+ B+ C -6 D+ D- D
 Tue, Nov 11 355 @Morgan St. W 81 - 79 70% +6  1 - 1 -9 +0 A+ F F -10 D+ F+ F
 Sun, Nov 16 329 Wagner W 71 - 70 OT 77% -1  2 - 1 -12 -15 F B F +2 B B- B-
 Wed, Nov 19 65 @George Washington L 52 - 89 6% -24  2 - 2 -25 -18 F F D+ -6 F A+ C-
 Sat, Nov 29 356 Delaware St. W 71 - 57 86% +8  3 - 2 -3 -1 C F C -1 C+ C F
 Wed, Dec 3 89 @Georgetown L 81 - 90 9% -11  3 - 3 +0 +16 B B- A+ -16 F C- F+
 Sat, Dec 6 322 @Bucknell W 73 - 66 55% +4  4 - 3 +0 +5 B- F D -4 C B- D+
 Tue, Dec 9 187 Buffalo L 79 - 83 47% +1  4 - 4 -9 +5 B C- C -14 F B- C
 Fri, Dec 12 334 Army L 60 - 63 79% -5  4 - 5 -17 -18 F+ F C+ +1 B B- D+
 Sun, Dec 21 67 @South Florida L 69 - 94 7% -15  4 - 6 -14 -2 D C D+ -10 F+ D+ F+
 Mon, Dec 29 364 @Coppin St. W 93 - 59 85% +18  5 - 6 +17 +10 D A+ C+ +6 C A- D
 Thu, Jan 8 336 Maine W 69 - 62 79% +6  6 - 6 1 - 0 -7 +0 C- F A -7 C+ F+ F
 Sat, Jan 10 314 New Hampshire W 75 - 74 74% -3  7 - 6 2 - 0 -11 +7 A- F A+ -18 F F D
 Thu, Jan 15 348 @Bryant L 74 - 79 OT 64% -1  7 - 7 2 - 1 -14 +0 B- F D -14 F F B-
 Mon, Jan 19 362 @Binghamton W 78 - 60 76% +9  8 - 7 3 - 1 +5 +7 B- D- A- -0 C C F
 Thu, Jan 22 332 NJIT W 87 - 74 78% +14  9 - 7 4 - 1 -1 +9 B- D+ A+ -10 F+ C- F+
 Sat, Jan 24 321 Umass Lowell W 79 - 56 75% +12  10 - 7 5 - 1 +10 +5 C- C- C +7 A- A- F
 Thu, Jan 29 200 @Vermont L 55 - 64 27% -2  10 - 8 5 - 2 -8 -13 F D- B- +4 C A+ C-
 Sat, Jan 31 316 @Albany W 73 - 72 53%
 Thu, Feb 5 362 Binghamton W 77 - 64 90%
 Thu, Feb 12 336 @Maine W 67 - 64 60%
 Sat, Feb 14 314 @New Hampshire W 71 - 70 52%
 Thu, Feb 19 200 Vermont L 70 - 71 49%
 Sat, Feb 21 316 Albany W 76 - 69 74%
 Thu, Feb 26 348 Bryant W 73 - 63 82%
 Sat, Feb 28 321 @Umass Lowell W 75 - 74 53%
 Tue, Mar 3 332 @NJIT W 73 - 71 57%
Totals 16 - 11 11 - 5 -6 -2 C- D- C+ -3 D+ C D-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected America East Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.2 3.1 7.2 7.0 2.5 20.0 1st
2nd 0.1 2.6 14.2 19.6 12.8 2.5 51.8 2nd
3rd 0.5 7.7 6.5 1.5 0.1 16.3 3rd
4th 0.1 2.9 3.4 0.6 6.9 4th
5th 0.6 2.1 0.4 3.1 5th
6th 0.2 0.7 0.4 0.0 1.3 6th
7th 0.2 0.2 0.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.2 8th
9th 9th
Total 0.0 0.5 1.6 6.0 14.1 21.5 24.3 20.1 9.5 2.5 Total



America East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2 100.0% 2.5    2.0 0.5
13-3 73.5% 7.0    3.4 3.6
12-4 35.9% 7.2    2.1 4.6 0.5
11-5 12.8% 3.1    0.4 1.4 1.1 0.1
10-6 1.0% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 20.0% 20.0 8.0 10.1 1.7 0.2



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2 2.5% 38.9% 38.9% 14.6 0.4 0.5 0.0 1.5
13-3 9.5% 32.8% 32.8% 15.7 0.9 2.2 6.4
12-4 20.1% 26.4% 26.4% 15.9 0.4 4.9 14.8
11-5 24.3% 23.8% 23.8% 16.0 0.3 5.5 18.5
10-6 21.5% 18.2% 18.2% 16.0 0.1 3.8 17.6
9-7 14.1% 15.5% 15.5% 16.0 2.2 11.9
8-8 6.0% 10.1% 10.1% 16.0 0.6 5.4
7-9 1.6% 9.1% 9.1% 16.0 0.1 1.5
6-10 0.5% 5.7% 5.7% 16.0 0.0 0.5
5-11 0.0% 0.0
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 22.0% 22.0% 0.0% 15.9 78.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.0% 100.0% 14.6 43.2 52.6 4.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.7%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.4%