Norfolk St.
Mid-Eastern
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.6#237
Expected Predictive Rating-8.2#292
Pace66.7#261
Improvement-2.9#340

Offense
Total Offense-5.4#318
First Shot-4.0#292
After Offensive Rebound-1.4#270
Layup/Dunks-4.6#325
2 Pt Jumpshots+6.3#8
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.0#284
Freethrows-2.8#323
Improvement+0.3#148

Defense
Total Defense+0.8#132
First Shot+2.6#83
After Offensive Rebounds-1.8#307
Layups/Dunks+1.1#142
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#99
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#140
Freethrows-0.8#235
Improvement-3.2#350
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 44.2% 48.1% 42.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.7 15.9
.500 or above 72.3% 85.6% 65.6%
.500 or above in Conference 97.7% 98.6% 97.2%
Conference Champion 59.4% 65.0% 56.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.1% 0.2%
First Four32.5% 29.4% 34.1%
First Round28.8% 34.4% 26.0%
Second Round0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UTEP (Away) - 33.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 16 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 4
Quad 30 - 40 - 7
Quad 415 - 615 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Sat, Nov 8 120 William & Mary L 78-81 33%     0 - 1 -3.0 -1.8 -0.9
  Tue, Nov 11 207 @Old Dominion L 57-60 33%     0 - 2 -3.0 -6.1 +2.6
  Fri, Nov 14 142 @Towson L 41-51 20%     0 - 3 -5.7 -22.3 +14.8
  Fri, Nov 21 239 Hampton W 62-60 62%     1 - 3 -5.6 -6.4 +1.0
  Sun, Nov 23 92 @Wyoming L 67-75 11%     1 - 4 +0.7 +1.0 -0.7
  Sat, Nov 29 3 @Arizona L 61-98 1%     1 - 5 -11.4 -3.8 -4.9
  Sat, Dec 6 193 @James Madison L 67-68 30%     1 - 6 -0.1 -2.4 +2.2
  Wed, Dec 10 31 @Baylor L 67-97 3%     1 - 7 -12.9 -6.1 -4.3
  Thu, Dec 18 238 Grambling St. L 68-80 50%     1 - 8 -16.6 -9.5 -6.4
  Fri, Dec 19 327 Jackson St. W 82-72 70%     2 - 8 +0.1 +2.4 -2.8
  Sun, Dec 21 211 @UTEP L 62-66 34%    
  Sun, Dec 28 321 @Louisiana W 63-61 58%    
  Sat, Jan 3 349 @NC Central W 69-64 67%    
  Sat, Jan 10 348 @Delaware St. W 68-64 66%    
  Mon, Jan 12 346 Maryland Eastern Shore W 68-58 83%    
  Sat, Jan 17 359 @South Carolina St. W 73-66 75%    
  Sat, Jan 24 364 Coppin St. W 78-60 95%    
  Mon, Jan 26 361 Morgan St. W 78-65 89%    
  Sat, Jan 31 286 @Howard L 68-69 47%    
  Sat, Feb 7 349 NC Central W 72-61 83%    
  Sat, Feb 14 348 Delaware St. W 71-61 83%    
  Mon, Feb 16 346 @Maryland Eastern Shore W 65-61 65%    
  Sat, Feb 21 359 South Carolina St. W 76-63 88%    
  Sat, Feb 28 364 @Coppin St. W 75-63 86%    
  Mon, Mar 2 361 @Morgan St. W 75-68 75%    
  Thu, Mar 5 286 Howard W 71-66 68%    
Projected Record 14 - 12 11 - 3




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-Eastern Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.3 7.0 15.3 18.4 12.8 4.6 59.4 1st
2nd 0.0 1.5 6.8 9.4 5.3 1.2 24.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 3.7 3.8 0.9 0.1 9.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 1.7 1.8 0.3 4.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.8 0.1 1.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.6 3.3 7.1 12.2 17.3 20.6 19.6 12.8 4.6 Total



Mid-Eastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0 100.0% 4.6    4.6
13-1 100.0% 12.8    12.5 0.3
12-2 93.7% 18.4    15.7 2.7 0.0
11-3 73.9% 15.3    9.7 5.2 0.4
10-4 40.2% 7.0    2.5 3.3 1.1 0.1
9-5 10.7% 1.3    0.1 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0
8-6 0.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
7-7 0.0%
Total 59.4% 59.4 45.1 12.0 2.0 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0 4.6% 67.2% 67.2% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.8 1.0 0.9 1.5
13-1 12.8% 62.2% 62.2% 15.7 0.0 0.2 1.6 6.2 4.9
12-2 19.6% 55.8% 55.8% 16.0 0.0 0.5 10.4 8.7
11-3 20.6% 45.6% 45.6% 16.0 0.1 9.3 11.2
10-4 17.3% 38.1% 38.1% 16.0 0.0 6.6 10.7
9-5 12.2% 28.9% 28.9% 16.0 0.0 3.5 8.7
8-6 7.1% 23.8% 23.8% 16.0 1.7 5.4
7-7 3.3% 17.4% 17.4% 16.0 0.6 2.8
6-8 1.6% 15.0% 15.0% 16.0 0.2 1.3
5-9 0.5% 10.8% 10.8% 16.0 0.1 0.5
4-10 0.2% 10.0% 10.0% 16.0 0.0 0.2
3-11 0.0% 0.0 0.0
2-12 0.0% 0.0
1-13 0.0% 0.0
0-14
Total 100% 44.2% 44.2% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.0 3.2 39.6 55.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.1% 100.0% 13.8 0.3 2.1 30.5 51.2 15.6 0.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%