Norfolk St.
Mid-Eastern
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -8.6 306
Expected Predictive Rating -10.0 321
Pace 69.3 162
Improvement -4.2 331

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D 314 D C- D C+ D+
Defense D+ 260 D C- C D D-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% 141 D- 50% 350 -2.6 278
2 Pt. Jumpers 58% 22 C- 37% 208 +2.6 55
Three Pointers 32% 341 C+ 35% 121 -3.8 311
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ -0.8 291 D+ -2.9 286
1st FG Attempt D 0.94 295
Second Chance C 30.4% 181 C- 0.99 240 C- 0.30 202
Turnovers D 19.3% 322
Freethrows B 0.35 62 F+ 66% 348 C+ 0.23 152
Total Offense D -5.7 314

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots F+ 35% 346 D 13.2% 306
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 24% 195 C- 6.4% 269
Three Pointers B+ 92% 24 C- 1.1% 230
Total D 48% 324 D- 7.4% 336

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% 166 F+ 67% 359 +4.0 313
2 Pt. Jumpers 13% 362 C 38% 194 -3.1 4
Three Pointers 48% 17 C+ 33% 123 +3.0 310
Shot Selection/Accuracy D- +1.1 350 D+ +2.7 284
1st FG Attempt D 1.10 310
Second Chance D+ 33.0% 285 C 1.02 171 C- 0.34 249
Turnovers C 16.9% 178
Freethrows D- 0.37 334 B- 71% 86 D 0.26 321
Total Defense D+ -2.9 260

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D+ 54% 293 D+ 8.5% 274
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots F 44% 358 D- 1.1% 351
Three Pointers D 88% 300 C 0.9% 164
Total D- 64% 342 D 3.9% 313

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.7 220 17.3 175
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.20 95 0.23 337
Improvement +1.5 #114 -5.7 #359

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 19% 20% 14%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 12% 14% 3%
.500 or above in Conference 98% 100% 92%
Conference Champion 19% 23% 4%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four18% 19% 14%
First Round9% 9% 6%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: South Carolina St. (Home) - 81.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 30 - 50 - 8
Quad 413 - 813 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 135 William & Mary L 78 - 81 25% +4  75% 0 - 1 C- -4 D- -6 A- F F B- +2 B- F A
 Tue, Nov 11 238 @Old Dominion L 57 - 60 24% -1  34% 0 - 2 C- -4 F+ -9 F B F B +4 B B- C-
 Fri, Nov 14 168 @Towson L 41 - 51 15% +1  52% 0 - 3 D+ -7 F -24 F B+ A+ A+ +14 A+ A+ F+
 Fri, Nov 21 258 Hampton W 62 - 60 50% +2  74% 1 - 3 D+ -7 D- -7 D D B C+ +1 F B C+
 Sun, Nov 23 104 @Wyoming L 67 - 75 8% -11  4% 1 - 4 C -1 D+ -3 D C- D+ B- +2 A+ F A
 Sat, Nov 29 3 @Arizona L 61 - 98 0% -17  7% 1 - 5 D -10 D -5 B- B C C- -3 C C- D+
 Sat, Dec 6 209 @James Madison L 67 - 68 20% -4  6% 1 - 6 C -1 D+ -4 A- C F B- +3 B+ D F
 Wed, Dec 10 48 @Baylor L 67 - 97 3% -16  1% 1 - 7 F+ -16 F+ -9 F D B- D+ -4 D C+ C+
 Thu, Dec 18 293 Grambling St. L 68 - 80 45% -14  0% 1 - 8 F -19 F -11 F C- B- D- -8 F A+ F
 Fri, Dec 19 332 Jackson St. W 82 - 72 60% +11  83% 2 - 8 C -1 D+ -3 B F F+ C+ +2 D C- B+
 Sun, Dec 21 245 @UTEP W 72 - 71 25% +3  66% 3 - 8 C -0 C- -2 B- F D- C+ +1 D- D- A+
 Mon, Dec 22 117 UC Irvine L 70 - 89 14% -16  0% 3 - 9 F+ -16 C+ +3 B A F F -20 F F D-
 Sun, Dec 28 303 @Louisiana L 54 - 63 37% -9  0% 3 - 10 D- -14 F -12 F D- C+ D+ -4 F A F
 Sat, Jan 3 350 @NC Central L 67 - 69 57% -3  16% 3 - 11 0 - 1 D- -12 F -11 F F C C -1 D A C+
 Sat, Jan 10 361 @Delaware St. W 66 - 64 69% -1  34% 4 - 11 1 - 1 D- -12 F -12 C F F C+ +0 F F A+
 Mon, Jan 12 348 Maryland Eastern Shore L 70 - 74 76% -0  38% 4 - 12 1 - 2 F -20 D -4 F A+ B- F -16 D D+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 357 @South Carolina St. W 89 - 82 63% -0  39% 5 - 12 2 - 2 D+ -5 B +7 C A+ F+ F -12 F D C
 Sat, Jan 24 364 Coppin St. W 103 - 76 88% +15  96% 6 - 12 3 - 2 B- +5 B +6 A+ F F D+ -4 F D C+
 Mon, Jan 26 352 Morgan St. L 78 - 79 78% +3  60% 6 - 13 3 - 3 F -18 F -13 F C A- D -5 F B+ C-
 Sat, Jan 31 215 @Howard L 60 - 88 21% -15  0% 6 - 14 3 - 4 F -28 F -12 F F C- F -16 F F A+
 Sat, Feb 7 350 NC Central W 75 - 68 77% +3  70% 7 - 14 4 - 4 D -9 F -11 D C+ F C+ +1 D- B+ A-
 Sat, Feb 14 361 Delaware St. W 75 - 58 85% +10  85% 8 - 14 5 - 4 C- -3 C+ +3 C- A+ C- D+ -4 C- B D
 Mon, Feb 16 348 @Maryland Eastern Shore W 70 - 66 56% +1  60% 9 - 14 6 - 4 D+ -6 B- +5 A- B D- F -10 F F D
 Sat, Feb 21 357 South Carolina St. W 77 - 68 81%
 Sat, Feb 28 364 @Coppin St. W 75 - 68 75%
 Mon, Mar 2 352 @Morgan St. W 78 - 76 58%
 Thu, Mar 5 215 Howard L 70 - 73 40%
Totals 12 - 15 9 - 5 -9 D -6 F D+ D+ D+ -3 C+ F+ C+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D D- C- C+ D+ 40% 58% 32% D+ D C C- C- D B F+ C+ D+ F+ C C+ D+ 39% 13% 48% D- D D+ C C- C D- B- D
1.00 50% 37% 35% -3 -1 0.94 30% 1.0 .30 19% .35 66% .23 1.13 67% 38% 33% +3 +1 1.10 33% 1.0 .34 17% .37 71% .24
Nov
8		 William & Mary D- D+ D A+ A- 40% 12% 48% B- A- C+ F F F A+ F A+ B- B+ F B- B 42% 2% 56% D- B- D F F A F B F
1.01 55% 33% 46% +7 +1 1.18 33% 0.4 .12 25% .54 55% .29 1.05 53% 100% 32% -3 +3 1.02 30% 1.7 .52 22% .57 71% .40
Nov
11		 Old Dominion F+ F B+ F F 42% 27% 31% D+ F A D B F F+ A+ D+ B F C- A+ B+ 35% 19% 47% D- B D- A+ B- C- F C- F
0.96 42% 42% 21% -12 -1 0.78 42% 0.9 .39 20% .27 85% .23 1.01 80% 38% 15% -6 0 0.91 30% 0.8 .23 15% .38 74% .28
Nov
14		 Towson F F F+ F F 33% 37% 29% F F B+ B- B+ A+ F+ F F A+ C+ A+ A+ A+ 22% 16% 61% D A+ B- A+ A+ F+ F+ A- D+
0.69 6% 32% 13% -29 -3 0.39 33% 1.1 .35 10% .21 27% .06 0.86 55% 25% 20% -16 -1 0.69 34% 0.4 .15 13% .35 61% .21
Nov
21		 Hampton D- F C+ A+ D+ 43% 30% 27% D D C- F D B B F D- C+ F B- D F 21% 28% 51% B F B+ C+ B C+ B A+ A+
1.00 47% 38% 42% -1 -1 0.98 28% 0.8 .22 15% .42 50% .21 0.97 78% 33% 36% +5 -2 1.07 29% 0.9 .26 19% .30 53% .16
Nov
23		 Wyoming D+ F B+ B- D+ 43% 25% 32% D D B F+ C- D+ A+ B- A+ B- A+ F A- A+ 49% 2% 49% F A+ F F F A F C- F
1.00 42% 45% 36% -4 0 0.93 31% 0.7 .22 18% .53 72% .38 1.12 38% 100% 29% -12 +3 0.84 46% 1.3 .60 21% .59 77% .45
Nov
29		 Arizona D B- B F B+ 29% 49% 22% F B- D+ A+ B C F F F C- F+ D A+ C+ 57% 25% 18% D- C B- D- C- D+ F B F
0.81 56% 41% 25% -2 -4 0.89 20% 1.3 .25 19% .15 22% .03 1.30 72% 46% 22% +7 +1 1.18 39% 1.1 .42 13% .70 70% .49
Dec
6		 James Madison D+ A+ C+ B A 42% 40% 18% F A- C+ C- C F C- F F B- F B+ A+ B+ 31% 15% 54% C+ B+ A- F D F F A+ C-
1.03 74% 39% 38% +8 -2 1.13 31% 1.0 .31 23% .34 47% .16 1.05 73% 29% 23% -5 0 0.92 22% 1.6 .36 12% .39 55% .21
Dec
10		 Baylor F+ A+ D+ F D+ 8% 72% 21% F F D D+ D B- A+ D- A+ D+ F B F+ D- 29% 37% 34% B+ D C+ C+ C+ C+ C F+ D+
0.88 100% 37% 18% -3 -9 0.79 24% 0.9 .21 16% .41 69% .28 1.27 88% 36% 40% +11 -3 1.19 38% 1.1 .41 16% .33 81% .26
Dec
18		 Grambling St. F C- F F F 46% 26% 28% D F C D+ C- B- A- F F D- F A+ F F 41% 19% 41% D+ F A+ C- A+ F C- D D+
0.92 57% 23% 21% -10 0 0.82 34% 1.0 .34 18% .41 44% .18 1.08 73% 10% 41% +5 0 1.13 7% 1.0 .07 12% .34 77% .26
Dec
19		 Jackson St. D+ B+ B- A+ A 20% 37% 43% F B D+ F F F+ A- A+ A+ C+ D+ A+ F F+ 24% 34% 42% A- D D+ C C- B+ C- C+ C-
1.12 70% 39% 48% +12 -3 1.18 32% 0.7 .24 19% .41 83% .34 0.99 58% 24% 43% +1 -3 0.98 29% 1.0 .29 22% .28 75% .21
Dec
21		 UTEP C- F A+ A B- 38% 24% 38% C B- D+ F F D- A+ F A C+ F A+ B D 36% 18% 46% F D- F B+ D- A+ F A+ D
1.04 41% 64% 41% +4 -1 1.09 30% 0.7 .21 22% .55 63% .35 1.02 78% 22% 30% +2 0 1.06 39% 0.9 .34 23% .50 44% .22
Dec
22		 UC Irvine C+ D D- A+ A 28% 41% 30% F B F A+ A F A+ A A+ F F F B+ F 44% 16% 40% F F F F F D- D F F
1.03 46% 32% 50% +1 -3 0.98 23% 1.9 .43 22% .38 80% .30 1.31 73% 50% 30% +6 +1 1.16 41% 1.3 .55 15% .34 85% .29
Dec
28		 Louisiana F F F B F 41% 18% 41% C- F D+ F D- C+ D- D- F+ D+ C F+ F F 24% 24% 52% D- F C A+ A F D- D F+
0.92 33% 13% 39% -12 0 0.80 30% 0.8 .24 17% .33 69% .23 1.07 55% 45% 42% +7 -1 1.13 26% 0.4 .10 12% .29 73% .21
Jan
3		 NC Central F F A F F 43% 26% 32% D+ F B- F F C B+ F C+ C F A- A+ D+ 50% 14% 36% F D F A+ A C+ F A- F
1.00 50% 50% 27% -4 0 0.94 40% 0.6 .24 18% .36 65% .24 1.03 68% 29% 22% -3 +2 1.00 45% 0.3 .14 19% .46 68% .31
Jan
10		 Delaware St. F D+ A+ C C 49% 22% 29% C- C F+ D- F F A D B C+ C+ F A+ F 42% 15% 44% F F F F F A+ A F B-
0.93 60% 56% 33% +5 +1 1.12 24% 1.0 .24 28% .42 67% .28 0.91 50% 100% 24% -1 +1 1.02 32% 1.0 .32 27% .21 82% .17
Jan
12		 Maryland Eastern Shore D D D- F F 44% 26% 31% D+ F C+ A+ A+ B- A+ D A+ F F A+ C- D+ 44% 14% 42% F D F B- D+ F F D F
1.10 53% 30% 17% -12 0 0.77 34% 2.0 .69 14% .60 70% .42 1.16 68% 0% 33% -1 +1 1.02 35% 0.8 .29 14% .68 76% .51
Jan
17		 South Carolina St. B C- F+ B C- 62% 8% 30% A- C C A+ A+ F+ A+ A A+ F F B- D+ F 31% 18% 51% F F F A D C F F F
1.24 61% 33% 36% +2 +3 1.14 38% 1.8 .67 21% .83 79% .65 1.14 67% 33% 36% +3 0 1.08 42% 0.8 .33 21% .39 82% .32
Jan
24		 Coppin St. B A F A+ A+ 39% 7% 54% B A+ C- F F F A+ C+ A+ D+ F A B+ F 37% 17% 46% F+ F D+ D- D C+ F A+ F
1.28 72% 0% 56% +21 +2 1.48 35% 0.8 .27 24% .70 77% .54 0.95 76% 25% 29% +1 0 1.04 30% 1.1 .33 24% .62 47% .29
Jan
26		 Morgan St. F F A+ F F 62% 9% 29% A- F C- B- C A- D F F D F+ D+ D+ F 34% 20% 46% F+ F A+ F B+ C- F D+ F
1.03 47% 60% 12% -15 +3 0.79 34% 1.3 .45 12% .40 59% .24 1.04 65% 40% 35% +3 0 1.08 12% 1.5 .18 18% .42 77% .32
Jan
31		 Howard F F F B+ F 51% 16% 33% C+ F F F F C- B+ C+ B+ F D A+ F F 50% 9% 41% F F F F F A+ F F F
0.86 40% 13% 38% -12 +1 0.82 24% 0.8 .18 20% .39 73% .29 1.26 59% 25% 44% +6 +2 1.18 59% 1.3 .77 27% .57 86% .49
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
7		 NC Central F D A+ D F+ 55% 7% 38% A D C+ C+ C+ F A+ B+ A+ C+ B+ F B- F+ 45% 24% 31% D+ D- A B B+ A- B+ D- B
1.05 57% 67% 31% 0 +3 1.07 39% 1.0 .39 28% .52 78% .41 0.95 48% 67% 31% +1 0 1.04 21% 0.8 .18 22% .25 79% .20
Feb
14		 Delaware St. C+ A- F B- C- 44% 23% 33% D+ C- B+ A+ A+ C- A+ F A D+ F A A+ C 42% 29% 29% F+ C- B+ B B D F D F
1.19 74% 20% 36% +4 0 1.09 39% 1.4 .55 19% .53 59% .31 0.92 63% 27% 18% -8 -1 0.84 19% 0.7 .13 17% .69 72% .50
Feb
16		 Maryland Eastern Shore B- C+ C A+ A+ 33% 28% 40% F+ A- B+ C B D- A+ F B F B- A+ F F+ 40% 9% 51% F F F+ F F D D- A+ C+
1.18 62% 36% 50% +10 -1 1.20 39% 1.1 .43 19% .44 62% .27 1.12 53% 25% 41% +2 +2 1.09 34% 1.1 .38 20% .28 54% .15



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-Eastern Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.0 3.8 15.4 19.2 1st
2nd 0.1 8.9 31.4 40.4 2nd
3rd 2.2 18.8 3.1 24.2 3rd
4th 0.1 6.8 4.8 11.6 4th
5th 0.7 2.9 0.1 3.7 5th
6th 0.7 0.2 0.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 8th
Total 1.6 12.2 32.6 38.3 15.4 Total



Mid-Eastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0
13-1
12-2
11-3
10-4 100.0% 15.4    3.9 11.5 0.0
9-5 9.9% 3.8    0.1 1.0 2.0 0.7
8-6 0.0% 0.0    0.0
7-7 0.0%
Total 19.2% 19.2 4.0 12.5 2.1 0.7



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0
13-1
12-2
11-3
10-4 15.4% 32.0% 32.0% 16.0 0.0 4.9 10.5
9-5 38.3% 19.9% 19.9% 16.0 7.6 30.7
8-6 32.6% 14.0% 14.0% 16.0 4.6 28.0
7-7 12.2% 11.4% 11.4% 16.0 1.4 10.8
6-8 1.6% 9.0% 9.0% 16.0 0.1 1.4
5-9
4-10
3-11
2-12
1-13
0-14
Total 100% 18.6% 18.6% 0.0% 16.0 81.4 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 4.9% 100.0% 16.0 0.7 99.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 5.8%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 4.5%
Lose Out 0.5%