Towson
Colonial Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -0.8 #168
Expected Predictive Rating -0.8 #177
Pace 60.9 #353
Improvement -1.4 #248

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #236 D C C D+ D-
Defense #120 C+ B- C- C+ C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #298 1.12 #225 -3.3 #294
2 Pt. Jumpers 30% #22 0.82 #97 +4.6 #17
Three Pointers 36% #297 0.83 #356 -6.1 #341
1st FG Attempt 0.92 #315 -4.7 #315
Freethrows 0.27 #277 71% #239 0.19 #282
Second Chance 36.0% #40 0.88 #351 0.32 #176
Turnovers 16.5% #180
Total Offense -2.4 #236

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #221 1.15 #163 +0.8 #142
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #179 0.86 #327 -1.1 #274
Three Pointers 42% #144 0.89 #36 +2.1 #110
1st FG Attempt 0.98 #122 +1.8 #124
Freethrows 0.28 #93 72% #173 0.20 #100
Second Chance 25.8% #35 1.08 #240 0.28 #87
Turnovers 15.7% #221
Total Defense +1.6 #120

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -3.1% #338 -0.1% #154
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -6.3% #291 -3.3% #116
Possession Length 18.6 #300 18.1 #298
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 #207 0.14 #85
Improvement -0.5 #210 -0.9 #241

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.3% 7.0% 4.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.2 14.1 14.7
.500 or above 55.1% 64.4% 30.7%
.500 or above in Conference 49.3% 58.7% 24.4%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 1.3% 0.5% 3.6%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.3%
First Round6.2% 6.9% 4.4%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Hampton (Home) - 72.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 21 - 11 - 4
Quad 35 - 76 - 11
Quad 49 - 415 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 318 Loyola Maryland W 67 - 56 79% +4  1 - 0 +2 -6 D D- C- +9 A- A+ C-
 Sat, Nov 8 4 @Houston L 48 - 65 2% -9  1 - 1 +7 -9 C- D+ F +15 B+ A+ A+
 Fri, Nov 14 296 Norfolk St. W 51 - 41 82% -1  2 - 1 -1 -16 F F B+ +17 A+ D F
 Tue, Nov 18 194 @James Madison L 75 - 81 44% -3  2 - 2 -5 +11 C- B- C -17 F A+ F
 Mon, Nov 24 109 Rhode Island W 62 - 55 33% +2  3 - 2 +11 +1 D+ D- B- +10 A+ F A
 Tue, Nov 25 91 Liberty W 72 - 69 25% -1  4 - 2 +9 +7 C A B- +2 A- C D
 Wed, Nov 26 126 UC San Diego L 73 - 87 39% -13  4 - 3 -12 +9 D+ C+ B -22 F C F+
 Wed, Dec 3 174 Cornell W 93 - 80 63% +3  5 - 3 +9 +13 B A+ D+ -4 C- A+ C
 Sun, Dec 7 50 @Central Florida L 61 - 86 9% -17  5 - 4 -11 -1 C- B+ F -12 C- F C-
 Tue, Dec 16 17 @Kansas L 49 - 73 3% -14  5 - 5 -3 -8 F+ C+ D +2 A F C+
 Mon, Dec 22 277 Sacred Heart W 72 - 47 80% +9  6 - 5 +15 -2 C+ F D +20 A+ B- A
 Mon, Dec 29 135 @William & Mary L 70 - 84 30% -8  6 - 6 0 - 1 -9 -0 C+ F B -9 F A+ F+
 Wed, Dec 31 237 @Hampton L 62 - 63 52% -1  6 - 7 0 - 2 -2 +0 F B- B- -3 C C B
 Sat, Jan 3 199 Monmouth L 48 - 62 67% -7  6 - 8 0 - 3 -19 -20 F F C+ -0 C B- A+
 Thu, Jan 8 134 Hofstra L 67 - 78 53% -7  6 - 9 0 - 4 -12 -5 D C F -8 B+ F F
 Sat, Jan 10 252 @Northeastern W 87 - 78 56% +6  7 - 9 1 - 4 +7 +12 A A+ F -5 C- B+ F
 Thu, Jan 15 154 College of Charleston W 61 - 52 57% +9  8 - 9 2 - 4 +6 -11 F B- D- +17 A+ B A+
 Mon, Jan 19 201 Drexel W 59 - 58 67% -7  9 - 9 3 - 4 -4 -7 F B- C- +3 D A B-
 Thu, Jan 22 183 @Elon W 72 - 59 42% +5  10 - 9 4 - 4 +14 +9 F A+ A+ +7 A B A+
 Sat, Jan 24 288 @N.C. A&T L 73 - 80 63% -4  10 - 10 4 - 5 -11 -4 C- F F+ -7 F A B+
 Thu, Jan 29 115 UNC Wilmington L 73 - 82 46% -3  10 - 11 4 - 6 -9 +6 B F A+ -16 F B F
 Sat, Jan 31 237 Hampton W 67 - 61 73%
 Sat, Feb 7 134 @Hofstra L 64 - 69 31%
 Thu, Feb 12 223 Stony Brook W 68 - 62 71%
 Sat, Feb 14 199 @Monmouth L 64 - 66 43%
 Sat, Feb 21 201 @Drexel L 61 - 62 45%
 Thu, Feb 26 183 Elon W 72 - 68 65%
 Sat, Feb 28 222 Campbell W 75 - 69 71%
 Tue, Mar 3 223 @Stony Brook L 65 - 66 49%
Totals 14 - 15 8 - 10 -1 -2 D C C +2 C+ B- C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 1.2 0.7 1.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 2.1 2.7 0.6 5.5 3rd
4th 0.4 6.9 2.3 0.2 9.8 4th
5th 0.0 3.6 6.7 0.4 10.7 5th
6th 1.1 10.2 1.6 0.0 12.9 6th
7th 0.1 5.8 7.6 0.1 13.7 7th
8th 1.0 10.7 1.8 13.4 8th
9th 0.2 6.0 6.0 0.1 12.3 9th
10th 0.2 2.4 7.0 1.4 11.0 10th
11th 0.1 0.9 3.7 2.1 0.0 6.7 11th
12th 0.2 0.8 0.8 0.2 2.0 12th
13th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 13th
Total 0.3 1.9 7.1 16.4 25.0 23.8 17.4 6.6 1.5 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 3.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 1.5% 21.3% 21.3% 12.5 0.2 0.2 0.0 1.2
11-7 6.6% 13.1% 13.1% 13.5 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 5.7
10-8 17.4% 9.8% 9.8% 13.7 0.0 0.6 0.9 0.2 15.7
9-9 23.8% 6.3% 6.3% 14.3 0.1 0.8 0.6 0.0 22.3
8-10 25.0% 4.8% 4.8% 14.9 0.2 1.0 0.1 23.8
7-11 16.4% 3.5% 3.5% 15.5 0.3 0.3 15.8
6-12 7.1% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.1 6.9
5-13 1.9% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 1.9
4-14 0.3% 9.7% 9.7% 16.0 0.0 0.3
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 6.3% 6.3% 0.0% 14.2 93.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 12.5 51.6 46.9 1.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.5%
Lose Out 0.2%