Towson
Colonial Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.5#139
Expected Predictive Rating+4.3#106
Pace60.3#362
Improvement+0.6#146

Offense
Total Offense+0.9#141
First Shot+0.4#160
After Offensive Rebound+0.5#145
Layup/Dunks+1.0#131
2 Pt Jumpshots+4.1#22
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#253
Freethrows-2.5#310
Improvement+3.2#16

Defense
Total Defense+0.6#144
First Shot-1.6#229
After Offensive Rebounds+2.2#47
Layups/Dunks-3.2#288
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#282
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.2#62
Freethrows-0.4#208
Improvement-2.7#339
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12.9% 20.3% 12.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.1 12.4 13.2
.500 or above 83.2% 95.2% 82.7%
.500 or above in Conference 83.4% 91.5% 83.1%
Conference Champion 17.4% 28.0% 16.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.9% 0.3% 0.9%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round12.9% 20.3% 12.6%
Second Round1.2% 2.4% 1.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Kansas (Away) - 4.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 21 - 21 - 5
Quad 36 - 57 - 10
Quad 411 - 318 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 339 Loyola Maryland W 67-56 88%     1 - 0 -0.1 -7.9 +8.6
  Sat, Nov 8 8 @Houston L 48-65 3%     1 - 1 +5.9 -8.7 +13.3
  Fri, Nov 14 233 Norfolk St. W 51-41 79%     2 - 1 +2.9 -12.8 +17.6
  Tue, Nov 18 182 @James Madison L 75-81 50%     2 - 2 -4.6 +10.7 -16.1
  Mon, Nov 24 115 Rhode Island W 62-55 43%     3 - 2 +10.3 +0.7 +10.6
  Tue, Nov 25 109 Liberty W 72-69 41%     4 - 2 +6.8 +7.6 -0.5
  Wed, Nov 26 89 UC San Diego L 73-87 33%     4 - 3 -8.1 +8.5 -17.9
  Wed, Dec 3 164 Cornell W 93-80 67%     5 - 3 +9.9 +15.9 -5.8
  Sun, Dec 7 57 @Central Florida L 61-86 15%     5 - 4 -12.5 -2.3 -12.5
  Tue, Dec 16 17 @Kansas L 57-75 4%    
  Mon, Dec 22 257 Sacred Heart W 76-66 82%    
  Mon, Dec 29 121 @William & Mary L 72-76 34%    
  Wed, Dec 31 229 @Hampton W 66-64 59%    
  Sat, Jan 3 220 Monmouth W 72-64 77%    
  Thu, Jan 8 114 Hofstra W 67-66 54%    
  Sat, Jan 10 209 @Northeastern W 69-67 56%    
  Thu, Jan 15 170 College of Charleston W 71-66 69%    
  Sat, Jan 17 272 Drexel W 70-60 83%    
  Thu, Jan 22 190 @Elon W 73-72 51%    
  Sat, Jan 24 310 @N.C. A&T W 73-66 74%    
  Thu, Jan 29 108 UNC Wilmington W 67-66 52%    
  Sat, Jan 31 229 Hampton W 69-61 77%    
  Sat, Feb 7 114 @Hofstra L 64-69 33%    
  Thu, Feb 12 197 Stony Brook W 70-63 73%    
  Sat, Feb 14 220 @Monmouth W 69-67 57%    
  Sat, Feb 21 272 @Drexel W 67-63 65%    
  Thu, Feb 26 190 Elon W 75-69 71%    
  Sat, Feb 28 228 Campbell W 74-66 77%    
  Tue, Mar 3 197 @Stony Brook W 67-66 53%    
Projected Record 17 - 12 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.7 2.7 4.9 4.9 2.9 1.0 0.2 17.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.9 4.0 6.2 3.9 1.4 0.2 0.0 16.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 4.1 6.2 3.3 0.7 0.0 14.8 3rd
4th 0.3 3.2 5.9 2.8 0.4 0.0 12.7 4th
5th 0.1 1.9 5.1 2.9 0.4 0.0 10.4 5th
6th 0.0 1.0 4.1 2.9 0.4 0.0 8.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.5 2.9 0.5 0.0 6.2 7th
8th 0.1 1.2 2.7 0.8 0.0 4.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 1.8 1.0 0.1 3.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.0 0.1 2.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.9 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 13th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 1.4 2.5 4.5 7.4 10.1 12.3 14.2 13.9 12.6 9.6 6.3 3.1 1.0 0.2 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 99.0% 1.0    1.0 0.0
16-2 93.8% 2.9    2.6 0.4 0.0
15-3 77.6% 4.9    3.3 1.4 0.2 0.0
14-4 51.4% 4.9    2.1 2.1 0.6 0.0
13-5 21.7% 2.7    0.7 1.2 0.7 0.2 0.0
12-6 4.8% 0.7    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 17.4% 17.4 9.9 5.3 1.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 39.0% 39.0% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-1 1.0% 39.0% 39.0% 11.8 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.6
16-2 3.1% 31.6% 31.6% 12.3 0.1 0.6 0.3 0.0 2.1
15-3 6.3% 28.9% 28.9% 12.5 0.0 0.9 0.8 0.1 0.0 4.5
14-4 9.6% 21.8% 21.8% 12.9 0.0 0.6 1.1 0.3 0.0 7.5
13-5 12.6% 18.4% 18.4% 13.1 0.4 1.3 0.6 0.1 10.3
12-6 13.9% 15.1% 15.1% 13.4 0.0 0.2 1.0 0.8 0.1 11.8
11-7 14.2% 10.3% 10.3% 13.6 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.2 12.8
10-8 12.3% 6.5% 6.5% 14.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 11.5
9-9 10.1% 4.7% 4.7% 14.5 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 9.6
8-10 7.4% 3.1% 3.1% 15.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 7.2
7-11 4.5% 2.1% 2.1% 15.6 0.0 0.1 4.4
6-12 2.5% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 2.5
5-13 1.4% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 1.3
4-14 0.5% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 0.5
3-15 0.1% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.0 0.1
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 12.9% 12.9% 0.0% 13.1 0.0 0.3 3.1 5.4 3.0 1.0 0.2 87.1 0.0%