North Dakota St.
Summit League
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.9#148
Expected Predictive Rating+3.6#121
Pace70.5#157
Improvement+1.0#106

Offense
Total Offense+0.1#162
First Shot-3.9#288
After Offensive Rebound+4.0#14
Layup/Dunks-4.9#327
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#118
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#179
Freethrows+0.1#174
Improvement+2.0#45

Defense
Total Defense+0.8#135
First Shot-2.9#269
After Offensive Rebounds+3.6#9
Layups/Dunks-2.0#258
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#271
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#221
Freethrows+0.9#120
Improvement-1.1#265
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 26.9% 30.0% 24.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.9 13.6 14.1
.500 or above 98.8% 99.7% 98.1%
.500 or above in Conference 95.6% 96.9% 94.6%
Conference Champion 36.7% 42.3% 32.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.1% 0.3%
First Four0.2% 0.1% 0.3%
First Round26.8% 30.0% 24.5%
Second Round1.4% 1.8% 1.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UC Irvine (Neutral) - 42.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 21 - 11 - 1
Quad 35 - 55 - 6
Quad 415 - 320 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 165 @Oregon St. L 65-67 43%     0 - 1 +0.6 -2.3 +2.7
  Wed, Nov 5 197 @UC Davis L 68-80 51%     0 - 2 -11.4 -2.1 -9.5
  Tue, Nov 11 217 Cal St. Northridge W 90-68 76%     1 - 2 +15.4 +1.4 +11.2
  Mon, Nov 17 129 Southern Illinois W 92-85 58%     2 - 2 +5.9 +10.0 -4.8
  Wed, Nov 26 270 Jacksonville St. W 56-43 74%     3 - 2 +7.2 -9.6 +18.5
  Fri, Nov 28 141 @Arkansas St. L 80-85 OT 37%     3 - 3 -0.8 +0.0 -0.2
  Wed, Dec 3 204 @Montana W 81-72 53%     4 - 3 +9.1 +7.0 +2.1
  Sat, Dec 6 271 Northern Arizona W 69-68 82%     5 - 3 -7.9 -8.1 +0.3
  Thu, Dec 11 312 @Cal St. Bakersfield W 80-69 74%     6 - 3 +5.1 +1.2 +3.4
  Sat, Dec 13 136 @Drake W 99-94 36%     7 - 3 +9.6 +24.5 -15.1
  Sun, Dec 21 121 UC Irvine L 68-70 42%    
  Wed, Dec 31 274 South Dakota W 86-76 83%    
  Sat, Jan 3 300 Oral Roberts W 82-71 85%    
  Thu, Jan 8 347 @UMKC W 77-67 82%    
  Sat, Jan 10 231 @Nebraska Omaha W 76-74 58%    
  Wed, Jan 14 164 South Dakota St. W 77-73 65%    
  Sat, Jan 17 131 St. Thomas W 75-73 58%    
  Thu, Jan 22 314 @Denver W 83-76 73%    
  Sat, Jan 24 300 @Oral Roberts W 79-74 69%    
  Sat, Jan 31 274 @South Dakota W 83-79 64%    
  Thu, Feb 5 314 Denver W 86-73 88%    
  Sat, Feb 7 231 Nebraska Omaha W 79-71 76%    
  Sat, Feb 14 344 @North Dakota W 78-69 80%    
  Wed, Feb 18 164 @South Dakota St. L 74-76 43%    
  Sat, Feb 21 347 UMKC W 80-64 92%    
  Thu, Feb 26 131 @St. Thomas L 72-76 36%    
  Sat, Feb 28 344 North Dakota W 81-66 92%    
Projected Record 19 - 8 11 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Summit League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.1 2.0 7.0 11.2 10.2 5.0 1.4 36.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 3.2 9.5 9.9 4.3 0.7 28.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 3.3 7.2 5.6 1.6 0.1 18.2 3rd
4th 0.3 2.1 4.1 2.4 0.4 0.0 9.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.3 2.1 1.1 0.1 4.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.0 0.4 0.0 2.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 9th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.1 2.8 5.0 8.9 13.0 17.5 18.4 15.6 10.9 5.0 1.4 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 1.4    1.4
15-1 100.0% 5.0    4.8 0.2
14-2 93.7% 10.2    8.4 1.7 0.0
13-3 71.9% 11.2    6.9 3.9 0.4
12-4 37.8% 7.0    2.7 3.2 1.0 0.1
11-5 11.1% 2.0    0.3 0.8 0.7 0.1 0.0
10-6 1.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 36.7% 36.7 24.4 9.8 2.2 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 1.4% 58.5% 58.5% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.6
15-1 5.0% 49.5% 49.5% 12.8 0.0 0.7 1.3 0.4 0.0 2.5
14-2 10.9% 42.9% 42.9% 13.3 0.0 0.5 2.3 1.7 0.2 6.2
13-3 15.6% 35.8% 35.8% 13.8 0.2 1.8 2.6 0.9 0.0 10.0
12-4 18.4% 29.0% 29.0% 14.1 0.1 1.0 2.9 1.4 0.0 13.1
11-5 17.5% 22.2% 22.2% 14.4 0.0 0.5 1.7 1.6 0.1 13.6
10-6 13.0% 17.4% 17.4% 14.7 0.1 0.7 1.2 0.2 10.8
9-7 8.9% 12.6% 12.6% 15.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.2 7.8
8-8 5.0% 11.0% 11.0% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 4.4
7-9 2.8% 7.3% 7.3% 15.7 0.1 0.1 2.6
6-10 1.1% 4.1% 4.1% 15.8 0.0 0.0 1.0
5-11 0.4% 8.3% 8.3% 16.0 0.0 0.4
4-12 0.2% 0.2
3-13 0.0% 0.0
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 26.9% 26.9% 0.0% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.9 7.2 10.2 6.4 1.0 73.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 11.5 0.8 3.8 42.0 49.6 3.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%