North Dakota St.
Summit League
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +1.3 #140
Expected Predictive Rating +3.6 #106
Pace 65.0 #281
Improvement +0.7 #151

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #128 C C C D D+
Defense #172 D B B B C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 32% #330 1.18 #148 -3.3 #293
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #100 0.80 #109 +1.9 #80
Three Pointers 44% #134 1.05 #124 +2.0 #109
1st FG Attempt 1.03 #153 +0.6 #153
Freethrows 0.27 #308 70% #246 0.19 #313
Second Chance 32.8% #119 0.96 #273 0.31 #170
Turnovers 16.8% #168
Total Offense +1.5 #128

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #293 1.30 #335 -0.3 #188
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #153 0.79 #233 -0.6 #228
Three Pointers 44% #89 1.10 #300 -3.4 #317
1st FG Attempt 1.10 #305 -4.2 #304
Freethrows 0.25 #35 76% #335 0.19 #60
Second Chance 31.5% #220 0.84 #10 0.26 #59
Turnovers 19.3% #58
Total Defense -0.3 #172

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.8% #301 -0.7% #108
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 3.0% #123 9.1% #330
Possession Length 18.1 #265 17.4 #212
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 #157 0.14 #76
Improvement +3.3 #39 -2.5 #310

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 35.0% 36.1% 27.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.6 13.6 13.9
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 90.9% 93.4% 74.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round35.0% 36.1% 27.6%
Second Round1.6% 1.7% 0.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Denver (Home) - 86.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 14 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 10 - 1
Quad 36 - 56 - 6
Quad 416 - 223 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 185 @Oregon St. L 65 - 67 49% -1  0 - 1 -1 -3 C- D- A- +2 D- A+ C
 Wed, Nov 5 189 @UC Davis L 68 - 80 51% -2  0 - 2 -11 -3 F B C+ -8 F F A+
 Tue, Nov 11 187 Cal St. Northridge W 90 - 68 72% +5  1 - 2 +17 +3 F A+ B+ +11 A+ D A+
 Mon, Nov 17 137 Southern Illinois W 92 - 85 61% +4  2 - 2 +5 +13 A B+ A- -8 F B- B+
 Wed, Nov 26 192 Jacksonville St. W 56 - 43 63% +10  3 - 2 +11 -9 C F C+ +22 A+ A A+
 Fri, Nov 28 168 @Arkansas St. L 80 - 85 OT 46% +1  3 - 3 -3 -1 D+ D- C- -1 C- B F
 Wed, Dec 3 158 @Montana W 81 - 72 44% +3  4 - 3 +12 +11 D A+ B- +1 D+ B C-
 Sat, Dec 6 311 Northern Arizona W 69 - 68 89% +1  5 - 3 -11 -13 F D F +2 C- B B-
 Thu, Dec 11 319 @Cal St. Bakersfield W 80 - 69 77% +6  6 - 3 +4 +1 F A+ C +3 C+ C- B-
 Sat, Dec 13 163 @Drake W 99 - 94 44% +9  7 - 3 +8 +24 A+ B+ A+ -17 F A+ B+
 Sun, Dec 21 118 UC Irvine L 73 - 74 43% -3  7 - 4 +2 +11 B+ A+ F -9 F C C-
 Mon, Dec 22 258 @UTEP L 66 - 76 64% -3  7 - 5 -12 -4 C F F -8 F C B-
 Wed, Dec 31 287 South Dakota W 84 - 61 86% +10  8 - 5 1 - 0 +13 +12 B- B+ A- +3 C A- A+
 Sat, Jan 3 335 Oral Roberts W 79 - 77 2OT 92% -0  9 - 5 2 - 0 -12 -5 F B F -7 D+ C- C
 Thu, Jan 8 358 @UMKC W 97 - 73 88% +18  10 - 5 3 - 0 +12 +23 A+ D- A- -10 F A- A
 Sat, Jan 10 240 @Nebraska Omaha W 78 - 76 61% -6  11 - 5 4 - 0 +0 +14 A- C B- -14 F+ F B-
 Wed, Jan 14 177 South Dakota St. W 76 - 65 70% +8  12 - 5 5 - 0 +7 +7 A+ F B- +1 D A+ C
 Sat, Jan 17 134 St. Thomas W 68 - 65 60% +3  13 - 5 6 - 0 +2 -6 D+ F C +8 B- A+ A+
 Thu, Jan 22 289 @Denver W 82 - 77 71% +5  14 - 5 7 - 0 +1 +8 B- D+ C+ -7 D B- D
 Sat, Jan 24 335 @Oral Roberts W 86 - 58 81% +19  15 - 5 8 - 0 +20 +20 A+ C+ A+ +3 D- C+ A-
 Sat, Jan 31 287 @South Dakota W 89 - 84 OT 70% +7  16 - 5 9 - 0 +1 +7 B+ D F+ -6 F+ B- D
 Thu, Feb 5 289 Denver W 85 - 73 87%
 Sat, Feb 7 240 Nebraska Omaha W 77 - 68 80%
 Sat, Feb 14 283 @North Dakota W 78 - 73 69%
 Wed, Feb 18 177 @South Dakota St. L 74 - 75 47%
 Sat, Feb 21 358 UMKC W 81 - 62 96%
 Thu, Feb 26 134 @St. Thomas L 73 - 76 38%
 Sat, Feb 28 283 North Dakota W 81 - 70 85%
Totals 21 - 7 14 - 2 +1 +2 C C C +0 D B B




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Summit League Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.1 3.5 18.6 33.1 27.0 8.7 90.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 3.8 3.4 8.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
Total 0.0 0.2 1.5 7.6 22.0 33.1 27.0 8.7 Total



Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 8.7    8.7
15-1 100.0% 27.0    27.0
14-2 100.0% 33.1    29.2 3.9
13-3 84.5% 18.6    11.0 7.4 0.2
12-4 46.0% 3.5    0.8 1.9 0.7 0.0
11-5 5.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8
Total 90.9% 90.9 76.7 13.2 0.9 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 8.7% 43.3% 43.3% 12.7 0.1 1.4 2.1 0.3 4.9
15-1 27.0% 40.6% 40.6% 13.4 0.7 5.5 4.5 0.3 16.0
14-2 33.1% 35.2% 35.2% 13.8 0.2 3.6 6.6 1.2 21.5
13-3 22.0% 29.6% 29.6% 14.1 0.1 1.2 3.6 1.6 0.0 15.5
12-4 7.6% 22.7% 22.7% 14.3 0.2 0.9 0.6 0.0 5.9
11-5 1.5% 23.2% 23.2% 14.4 0.0 0.2 0.2 1.2
10-6 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.1
9-7 0.0% 0.0
8-8
7-9
6-10
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 35.0% 35.0% 0.0% 13.6 65.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 3.8% 100.0% 12.7 1.9 36.2 54.5 7.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 2.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 2.2%