IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
North Dakota St.
Summit League
2025-26

Overall
Predictive Rating	-2.8	#208
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	63.6	#299
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+0.1	#159

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-2.9	#273

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	13.8%	19.4%	12.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	15.2	13.9	14.6

.500 or above	52.9%	75.8%	47.7%
.500 or above in Conference	72.4%	83.8%	69.7%
Conference Champion	17.7%	27.4%	15.5%
Last Place in Conference	4.3%	1.9%	4.8%

First Four	2.2%	1.5%	2.4%
First Round	13.6%	19.4%	12.3%
Second Round	0.6%	1.2%	0.5%
Sweet Sixteen	0.1%	0.2%	0.1%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Oregon St. (Away) - 18.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 1b	0 - 0	0 - 1
Quad 2	0 - 3	0 - 3
Quad 3	3 - 6	4 - 9
Quad 4	11 - 5	15 - 14

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 03, 2025	113	@ Oregon St.	L	63-72	19%
Nov 05, 2025	252	@ UC Davis	L	67-68	47%
Nov 11, 2025	176	Cal St. Northridge	W	75-74	55%
Nov 17, 2025	141	Southern Illinois	L	70-71	47%
Nov 26, 2025	153	Jacksonville St.	L	65-68	39%
Nov 28, 2025	140	@ Arkansas St.	L	69-76	26%
Dec 03, 2025	189	@ Montana	L	68-72	37%
Dec 06, 2025	263	Northern Arizona	W	73-67	69%
Dec 11, 2025	223	@ Cal St. Bakersfield	L	68-70	42%
Dec 13, 2025	114	@ Drake	L	56-65	21%
Dec 21, 2025	93	UC Irvine	L	66-74	24%
Dec 31, 2025	294	South Dakota	W	84-76	74%
Jan 03, 2026	310	Oral Roberts	W	76-67	77%
Jan 08, 2026	301	@ UMKC	W	66-64	56%
Jan 10, 2026	182	@ Nebraska Omaha	L	70-74	36%
Jan 14, 2026	151	South Dakota St.	L	72-73	50%
Jan 17, 2026	148	St. Thomas	L	71-72	50%
Jan 22, 2026	321	@ Denver	W	71-67	62%
Jan 24, 2026	310	@ Oral Roberts	W	73-70	58%
Jan 31, 2026	294	@ South Dakota	W	81-79	56%
Feb 05, 2026	321	Denver	W	74-64	79%
Feb 07, 2026	182	Nebraska Omaha	W	73-71	56%
Feb 14, 2026	315	@ North Dakota	W	74-71	59%
Feb 18, 2026	151	@ South Dakota St.	L	70-76	31%
Feb 21, 2026	301	UMKC	W	69-61	74%
Feb 26, 2026	148	@ St. Thomas	L	69-75	30%
Feb 28, 2026	315	North Dakota	W	77-68	77%
Projected Record						14 - 13	9 - 7

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Summit League Finish

	0-16	1-15	2-14	3-13	4-12	5-11	6-10	7-9	8-8	9-7	10-6	11-5	12-4	13-3	14-2	15-1	16-0		Total
1st										0.0	0.3	1.8	4.2	5.2	3.9	1.9	0.4		17.7	1st
2nd									0.0	0.7	3.6	6.4	4.9	1.9	0.3				17.7	2nd
3rd								0.1	1.0	5.1	6.8	3.5	0.8	0.0					17.3	3rd
4th							0.1	1.2	5.0	5.6	2.3	0.2							14.3	4th
5th						0.1	1.2	4.4	4.5	1.3	0.1								11.6	5th
6th				0.0	0.1	1.0	3.6	3.2	0.7	0.0									8.6	6th
7th			0.0	0.1	0.8	2.4	2.4	0.5	0.0										6.3	7th
8th			0.1	0.8	1.6	1.3	0.3	0.0											4.2	8th
9th	0.1	0.2	0.5	0.9	0.6	0.1	0.0												2.4	9th

Total	0.1	0.2	0.7	1.8	3.1	4.9	7.6	9.3	11.3	12.7	13.1	11.9	9.9	7.1	4.1	1.9	0.4			Total

Summit League Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
16-0	100.0%	0.4		0.4
15-1	100.0%	1.9		1.8	0.1
14-2	93.9%	3.9		3.2	0.7
13-3	73.1%	5.2		3.4	1.6	0.2
12-4	42.2%	4.2		1.8	1.7	0.7	0.0
11-5	15.1%	1.8		0.4	0.8	0.5	0.1	0.0
10-6	2.6%	0.3		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0
9-7	0.1%	0.0				0.0	0.0	0.0
8-8	0.0%

Total	17.7%	17.7		11.1	4.9	1.4	0.2	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
16-0	0.4%		57.9%	57.9%		12.1								0.0				0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0		0.2
15-1	1.9%		49.5%	49.5%		12.8											0.0	0.1	0.3	0.3	0.2	0.0		0.9
14-2	4.1%		39.5%	39.5%		13.2												0.0	0.4	0.6	0.5	0.1	0.0	2.5
13-3	7.1%		31.0%	31.0%		13.9												0.0	0.2	0.7	0.8	0.4	0.1	4.9
12-4	9.9%		25.1%	25.1%		14.8													0.1	0.5	0.9	0.9	0.3	7.4
11-5	11.9%		18.3%	18.3%		16.0													0.0	0.2	0.6	0.9	0.6	9.7
10-6	13.1%		13.3%	13.3%		17.1													0.0	0.0	0.3	0.8	0.8	11.4
9-7	12.7%		8.4%	8.4%		17.2														0.0	0.1	0.3	0.7	11.6
8-8	11.3%		5.9%	5.9%		17.9														0.0	0.0	0.2	0.6	10.6
7-9	9.3%		3.6%	3.6%		16.3																0.0	0.3	9.0
6-10	7.6%		2.5%	2.5%		16.7																0.0	0.2	7.4
5-11	4.9%		0.9%	0.9%		16.0																	0.0	4.8
4-12	3.1%		0.8%	0.8%		16.0																	0.0	3.1
3-13	1.8%		0.5%	0.5%		16.0																	0.0	1.8
2-14	0.7%																							0.7
1-15	0.2%																							0.2
0-16	0.1%																							0.1

Total	100%		13.8%	13.8%	0.0%	15.2								0.0			0.0	0.2	1.2	2.3	3.5	3.6	3.7	86.2		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.0%	100.0%	7.0							100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final	0.0%
Lose Out	0.0%