Northwestern St.
Southland
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -6.5 #276
Expected Predictive Rating -8.0 #293
Pace 64.1 #306
Improvement +4.6 #20

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #192 C C- C- B- D+
Defense #328 F+ D- C D D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #235 1.04 #309 -3.3 #297
2 Pt. Jumpers 26% #70 0.86 #50 +3.6 #32
Three Pointers 37% #264 1.06 #125 -1.2 #221
1st FG Attempt 1.00 #204 -0.9 #204
Freethrows 0.34 #82 74% #116 0.25 #73
Second Chance 25.0% #325 1.15 #62 0.29 #250
Turnovers 17.3% #236
Total Offense -1.0 #192

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #100 1.32 #340 -5.1 #339
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #310 0.93 #356 +0.4 #157
Three Pointers 42% #137 1.11 #297 -2.6 #292
1st FG Attempt 1.17 #357 -7.4 #358
Freethrows 0.35 #312 73% #204 0.25 #307
Second Chance 34.8% #323 1.15 #309 0.40 #341
Turnovers 17.0% #150
Total Defense -5.5 #328

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.8% #299 1.6% #317
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 0.0% #175 12.6% #356
Possession Length 19.0 #334 16.8 #87
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 #276 0.20 #274
Improvement +1.6 #98 +3.0 #33

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.2% 0.5% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.8 15.9
.500 or above 0.1% 0.5% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 8.3% 22.9% 6.7%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 13.2% 5.0% 14.0%
First Four0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
First Round0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Stephen F. Austin (Away) - 9.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 40 - 7
Quad 31 - 61 - 13
Quad 47 - 88 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 30 @Texas A&M L 68 - 98 2% -19  0 - 1 -12 -2 D C- C -8 B- F C+
 Thu, Nov 6 140 @North Texas L 53 - 80 16% -8  0 - 2 -23 -3 C+ F F -25 F F C+
 Tue, Nov 11 330 @North Alabama L 83 - 87 OT 54% -5  0 - 3 -12 +0 C+ F C- -11 D F C
 Tue, Nov 18 97 @San Francisco L 64 - 84 9% -15  0 - 4 -12 +4 D C+ D -18 F B- D
 Fri, Nov 21 70 @Grand Canyon L 72 - 85 6% -8  0 - 5 -2 +9 A F A- -11 F+ D- C
 Sat, Nov 29 256 Southern L 73 - 75 57% -8  0 - 6 -10 -1 D C+ C- -9 F D+ B
 Fri, Dec 5 83 @McNeese St. L 54 - 92 7% -24  0 - 7 0 - 1 -28 -12 D+ F F -18 F C B-
 Sun, Dec 7 266 @SE Louisiana W 76 - 68 36% -3  1 - 7 1 - 1 +5 +10 C A+ D- -4 C D- C
 Sat, Dec 13 65 @California L 70 - 79 6% -1  1 - 8 +3 +6 A- C F -4 B- F B+
 Mon, Dec 29 218 Lamar L 61 - 76 49% -12  1 - 9 1 - 2 -21 -10 F F+ D+ -12 F B B
 Wed, Dec 31 104 Stephen F. Austin L 64 - 74 22% -7  1 - 10 1 - 3 -8 -3 D+ F+ A+ -6 D B C+
 Sat, Jan 3 242 New Orleans W 74 - 68 54% -5  2 - 10 2 - 3 -1 -1 F A C- +0 C+ B- D+
 Mon, Jan 5 238 @Nicholls St. L 72 - 74 31% -2  2 - 11 2 - 4 -3 -1 F+ C+ A- -2 D- B+ D+
 Sat, Jan 10 187 TX A&M Corpus Christi W 79 - 78 44% -7  3 - 11 3 - 4 -4 +10 A+ B F -14 F C F+
 Mon, Jan 12 189 UT Rio Grande Valley W 64 - 63 44% -4  4 - 11 4 - 4 -4 -6 D D+ D- +2 C+ C+ B+
 Sat, Jan 17 230 @Incarnate Word L 74 - 76 30% +4  4 - 12 4 - 5 -3 +5 B+ F+ D- -8 C- F A+
 Mon, Jan 19 307 @Houston Christian L 80 - 82 47% +4  4 - 13 4 - 6 -8 +24 B- A+ B- -32 F F C
 Tue, Jan 27 104 @Stephen F. Austin L 64 - 78 9%
 Sat, Jan 31 242 @New Orleans L 76 - 81 31%
 Mon, Feb 2 238 Nicholls St. W 75 - 74 53%
 Sat, Feb 7 303 @East Texas A&M L 72 - 73 46%
 Mon, Feb 9 218 @Lamar L 67 - 73 29%
 Sat, Feb 14 266 SE Louisiana W 70 - 68 59%
 Mon, Feb 16 83 McNeese St. L 67 - 78 16%
 Sat, Feb 21 307 Houston Christian W 74 - 69 68%
 Mon, Feb 23 230 Incarnate Word W 72 - 71 52%
 Sat, Feb 28 187 @TX A&M Corpus Christi L 65 - 73 24%
 Mon, Mar 2 189 @UT Rio Grande Valley L 68 - 75 24%
Totals 8 - 20 8 - 13 -6 -1 C C- C- -5 F+ D- C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.0 3rd
4th 0.2 1.2 0.9 0.1 2.4 4th
5th 0.1 1.6 2.5 0.5 0.0 4.7 5th
6th 0.1 1.6 4.9 1.7 0.1 8.3 6th
7th 1.1 7.3 4.3 0.3 0.0 13.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 7.2 8.4 1.1 0.0 17.3 8th
9th 0.5 5.8 10.5 2.6 0.1 19.5 9th
10th 0.2 3.6 9.2 3.5 0.1 16.6 10th
11th 0.1 1.8 6.1 3.5 0.2 11.7 11th
12th 0.9 2.6 1.9 0.3 5.6 12th
Total 0.9 4.5 12.0 19.6 22.6 20.0 12.0 5.8 1.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4
17-5
16-6
15-7 0.0%
14-8 0.0%
13-9 0.0%
12-10 0.0%
11-11 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4
17-5
16-6
15-7 0.0% 0.0
14-8 0.1% 0.0 0.1
13-9 0.5% 1.0% 1.0% 15.0 0.0 0.5
12-10 1.9% 1.9% 1.9% 15.7 0.0 0.0 1.8
11-11 5.8% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.1 5.7
10-12 12.0% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 12.0
9-13 20.0% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 20.0
8-14 22.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 22.5
7-15 19.6% 19.6
6-16 12.0% 12.0
5-17 4.5% 4.5
4-18 0.9% 0.9
3-19
2-20
1-21
0-22
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 15.9 99.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.9%