Northwestern St.
Southland
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating -6.9 279
Results Rating -8.5 299
Consistency 0.13 78
Pace 63.2 315
Improvement +3.6 61

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D 299 D D+ C C+ D
Defense C- 228 D D C+ C- D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 231 F+ 49% 349 -4.2 322
2 Pt. Jumpers 50% 47 C 38% 183 +3.0 46
Three Pointers 35% 307 C- 33% 241 -3.9 311
Shot Selection/Accuracy D -1.1 321 D -4.0 315
1st FG Attempt D 0.92 326
Second Chance D- 24.5% 330 B- 1.09 96 D+ 0.27 279
Opponents' Steals C 9.4% 171
Other Turnovers C- 7.6% 241
Turnovers C 17.0% 207
Freethrows C 0.31 163 C+ 74% 146 C+ 0.23 141
Total Offense D -5.1 299

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots D+ 43% 274 D+ 12.4% 268
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 24% 187 B 3.4% 63
Three Pointers D+ 80% 265 D 1.5% 325
Total D 48% 319 C- 6.1% 240


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% 123 D+ 61% 258 +2.6 270
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% 245 D+ 41% 289 -0.3 167
Three Pointers 40% 196 D 36% 293 +1.2 255
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ +0.4 253 D +3.0 303
1st FG Attempt D 1.09 300
Second Chance D+ 33.2% 299 D 1.12 306 D 0.37 320
Turnovers from Steals C+ 10.1% 132
Other Turnovers C- 7.0% 218
Turnovers C+ 17.1% 152
Freethrows C- 0.33 258 C 72% 169 C- 0.24 249
Total Defense C- -1.8 228

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D+ 53% 287 D+ 8.5% 271
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 22% 125 D- 1.6% 340
Three Pointers C- 85% 206 D+ 0.3% 301
Total C- 58% 242 D 3.9% 310

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.9 325 17.2 169
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 262 0.17 172
Consistency 0.13 251 0.15 331
Improvement -4.5 345 +8.1 1

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 279 279 278
Results Rating Rank 299 299 299
Conference Record 8 - 14 8 - 14 8 - 14
Conference Finish 7 7 7
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% n/a n/a
#1 Seed 0% n/a n/a
Top 2 Seed 0% n/a n/a
Top 4 Seed 0% n/a n/a
Top 6 Seed 0% n/a n/a
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% n/a n/a
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% n/a n/a
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 0% n/a n/a
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0.0%
First Four0% n/a n/a
First Round0% n/a n/a
Second Round0% n/a n/a
Sweet Sixteen0% n/a n/a
Elite Eight0% n/a n/a
Final Four0% n/a n/a
Championship Game0% n/a n/a
National Champion0% n/a n/a

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 40 - 4
Quad 20 - 40 - 8
Quad 31 - 41 - 12
Quad 47 - 108 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 35 @Texas A&M L 68 - 98 2% -19  0% 0 - 1 D- -13 D -5 D+ C- D D -6 B- F B-
 Thu, Nov 6 135 @North Texas L 53 - 80 14% -8  3% 0 - 2 F -22 D -6 C- F F F -22 F F B
 Tue, Nov 11 343 @North Alabama L 83 - 87 OT 62% -5  4% 0 - 3 D- -14 D+ -2 C F C F -11 D F C-
 Tue, Nov 18 118 @San Francisco L 64 - 84 12% -15  1% 0 - 4 D- -14 C- -2 D C D F -15 F C D-
 Fri, Nov 21 61 @Grand Canyon L 72 - 85 5% -8  1% 0 - 5 C -0 B +7 A F B+ D- -8 D- D- C+
 Sat, Nov 29 276 Southern L 73 - 75 60% -8  6% 0 - 6 D- -12 D- -7 D C+ D D -5 F D A-
 Fri, Dec 5 80 @McNeese St. L 54 - 92 6% -24  0% 0 - 7 0 - 1 F -28 F -13 D F F+ F -17 F C- B-
 Sun, Dec 7 286 @SE Louisiana W 76 - 68 40% -3  18% 1 - 7 1 - 1 C+ +4 B +6 C- A+ F+ C- -2 C+ D- C-
 Sat, Dec 13 74 @California L 70 - 79 6% -1  38% 1 - 8 C+ +2 B- +4 A- C F+ C- -2 B- F A-
 Mon, Dec 29 238 Lamar L 61 - 76 53% -12  12% 1 - 9 1 - 2 F -23 F -13 F F+ D F -11 F C+ B+
 Wed, Dec 31 106 Stephen F. Austin L 64 - 74 22% -7  5% 1 - 10 1 - 3 D -9 D -6 D- F+ A+ D+ -3 D B+ C+
 Sat, Jan 3 201 New Orleans W 74 - 68 43% -5  16% 2 - 10 2 - 3 C +1 C -0 F A C C+ +1 C+ C D
 Mon, Jan 5 241 @Nicholls St. L 72 - 74 31% -2  30% 2 - 11 2 - 4 C- -4 D+ -3 D- C+ A- C -1 F A- D
 Sat, Jan 10 177 TX A&M Corpus Christi W 79 - 78 39% -7  8% 3 - 11 3 - 4 C- -3 B +7 A A- F F+ -10 F C F
 Mon, Jan 12 134 UT Rio Grande Valley W 64 - 63 29% -4  4% 4 - 11 4 - 4 C -0 D- -8 D- D+ D- A- +8 B- B- A-
 Sat, Jan 17 267 @Incarnate Word L 74 - 76 35% +4  80% 4 - 12 4 - 5 C- -5 C- -1 B- F+ F D+ -4 C F A-
 Mon, Jan 19 290 @Houston Christian L 80 - 82 41% +4  91% 4 - 13 4 - 6 D+ -7 A+ +24 B+ A+ B+ F -31 F F C
 Tue, Jan 27 106 @Stephen F. Austin L 67 - 69 10% -8  0% 4 - 14 4 - 7 B- +5 D -5 F B- B+ A +11 A- C- B-
 Sat, Jan 31 201 @New Orleans L 64 - 75 23% -4  20% 4 - 15 4 - 8 D -10 F+ -10 C- F D+ C -1 C F C
 Mon, Feb 2 241 Nicholls St. L 58 - 61 53% -9  9% 4 - 16 4 - 9 D -11 F -15 F B C B +4 A F B
 Wed, Feb 4 302 East Texas A&M L 68 - 74 68% -0  34% 4 - 17 4 - 10 F+ -18 D+ -4 B- F A F -14 F F+ C
 Sat, Feb 7 302 @East Texas A&M L 48 - 52 45% -6  0% 4 - 18 4 - 11 D -10 F -26 F B F A+ +16 A+ A+ D-
 Mon, Feb 9 238 @Lamar W 70 - 68 31% +3  82% 5 - 18 5 - 11 C +0 C +0 D- D+ A+ C+ +0 D A- C
 Sat, Feb 14 286 SE Louisiana W 69 - 66 63% -2  15% 6 - 18 6 - 11 D+ -7 C -0 C- D- A D- -7 D F A+
 Mon, Feb 16 80 McNeese St. L 64 - 75 14% -11  0% 6 - 19 6 - 12 D+ -7 C- -2 C- F A- D -6 B D- F
 Sat, Feb 21 290 Houston Christian W 71 - 53 64% +10  88% 7 - 19 7 - 12 B- +7 C- -2 F C A+ A +11 A D A
 Mon, Feb 23 267 Incarnate Word W 54 - 49 58% +0  43% 8 - 19 8 - 12 C- -4 F -19 F F C+ A+ +16 A+ B- B+
 Sat, Feb 28 177 @TX A&M Corpus Christi L 59 - 71 20% -5  29% 8 - 20 8 - 13 D -10 D+ -4 F B+ C- F+ -8 F+ C+ F
 Mon, Mar 2 134 @UT Rio Grande Valley L 62 - 74 14% -7  5% 8 - 21 8 - 14 D+ -7 D -5 D+ D+ F+ C- -3 F+ A D-
 Sun, Mar 8 241 Nicholls St. L 47 - 61 42% -6  5% 8 - 22 F -19 F -22 F F D- C +0 D- C A-
Totals 8 - 22 8 - 14 -7 D -5 B- D D C- -2 C- C+ C+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D F+ C C- D 37% 50% 35% D D D- B- D+ C C C+ C+ C- D+ D+ D D 41% 19% 40% D+ D D+ D D C+ C- C C-
1.01 49% 38% 33% -4 -1 0.92 25% 1.1 .27 17% .31 74% .23 1.11 61% 41% 36% +3 0 1.09 33% 1.1 .37 17% .33 72% .22
Nov
3		 Texas A&M D F A B- D+ 39% 27% 35% C- D+ C- C C- D A- C- B+ D D+ A+ C B- 43% 7% 50% C- B- F D- F B- D+ C D+
0.90 37% 46% 35% -5 -1 0.90 27% 0.9 .24 21% .35 71% .25 1.30 64% 25% 34% +2 +2 1.10 44% 1.1 .46 16% .36 74% .27
Nov
6		 North Texas D F A+ D- B- 16% 41% 44% F C- B- F F F A+ B A+ F F F F F 38% 14% 48% C F F F F B F A- D-
0.90 40% 54% 29% 0 -4 0.94 33% 0.3 .10 27% .63 74% .46 1.35 69% 50% 45% +14 +1 1.31 46% 1.3 .58 19% .46 64% .29
Nov
11		 North Alabama D+ B+ C+ C- B- 40% 31% 29% F C F F F C A+ A A+ F B- B+ F+ D 51% 15% 34% D- D F F F C- F C F
1.11 67% 44% 33% +5 -1 1.10 20% 0.3 .07 15% .46 83% .38 1.17 50% 29% 38% -4 +2 0.98 40% 1.5 .60 17% .60 68% .41
Nov
18		 San Francisco C- F C+ A D 35% 30% 35% D D C+ D+ C D A+ D A+ F D- F F F 38% 3% 60% F F D+ B- C D- F C F
1.03 33% 38% 40% -5 -1 0.88 29% 1.0 .29 16% .50 69% .35 1.35 67% 100% 46% +15 +2 1.38 35% 1.0 .35 13% .57 71% .41
Nov
21		 Grand Canyon B A+ A+ D+ A+ 22% 38% 40% F A F D+ F B+ A D- B D- F D- C F+ 40% 17% 43% C- D- F A- D- C+ F C- F
1.04 73% 53% 30% +6 -3 1.08 9% 1.0 .09 15% .41 67% .27 1.23 71% 43% 33% +5 +1 1.14 46% 0.9 .42 17% .68 77% .53
Nov
29		 Southern D- F A+ A+ D- 36% 22% 42% C- D C- B+ C+ D F F F D C+ A+ F F+ 56% 14% 30% F F F+ C+ D A- A A+ A+
1.06 22% 55% 48% -1 0 1.00 31% 1.3 .39 20% .27 67% .18 1.08 54% 14% 53% +3 +2 1.12 35% 1.0 .35 20% .24 54% .13
Dec
5		 McNeese St. F F D+ C D 22% 13% 65% C- D F F F F+ F C- F F F D F F 57% 13% 30% F F F A+ C- B- C+ C- C+
0.81 40% 33% 33% -5 0 0.91 23% 0.8 .17 28% .23 73% .17 1.37 70% 43% 50% +15 +2 1.36 50% 0.7 .37 15% .28 75% .21
Dec
7		 SE Louisiana B B D A- C 36% 38% 26% F C- A A+ A+ F+ A+ B A+ C- F B- A+ C+ 35% 28% 37% C+ C+ C+ F D- C- F D+ F
1.15 64% 33% 40% +3 -2 1.03 41% 1.6 .67 23% .53 78% .41 1.03 80% 33% 13% -6 -1 0.88 26% 1.2 .32 17% .55 70% .38
Dec
13		 California B- B- D- A+ A+ 26% 28% 46% F A- F A+ C F+ D+ A+ B+ C- B A+ F B 38% 15% 48% F+ B- D F F A- D- D F+
1.04 58% 31% 43% +4 -2 1.07 17% 1.6 .28 21% .28 87% .25 1.18 56% 0% 43% 0 +1 1.04 31% 1.6 .50 18% .38 81% .31
Dec
29		 Lamar F F A- D- F+ 33% 37% 30% F F F C- F+ D A+ F+ A F F F D+ F 38% 28% 34% F+ F A F C+ B+ B C B-
0.92 43% 44% 31% -4 -3 0.88 20% 1.0 .20 20% .53 64% .34 1.15 79% 57% 35% +14 -1 1.28 25% 1.2 .29 20% .19 70% .13
Dec
31		 Stephen F. Austin D D- C- F F+ 48% 20% 32% B- D- F A+ F+ A+ A+ F A D+ F+ D- A C- 46% 18% 36% F D D+ A+ B+ C+ F D+ F
0.97 50% 40% 25% -8 +1 0.88 14% 1.4 .20 11% .43 64% .27 1.13 65% 44% 28% +1 +1 1.06 34% 0.8 .26 14% .35 70% .25
Jan
3		 New Orleans C F F+ D+ F 44% 20% 36% C F C A+ A C A+ A A+ C+ F F A+ C 23% 33% 44% A+ C+ D+ B C D A+ F A
1.13 35% 33% 31% -13 +1 0.78 34% 1.5 .51 15% .47 81% .38 1.03 75% 47% 22% -1 -3 0.94 37% 0.9 .34 17% .24 85% .20
Jan
5		 Nicholls St. D+ C A+ F F+ 43% 14% 43% C+ D- D A+ C+ A- B- F+ C C F D A F+ 51% 10% 39% F F C+ A+ A- D F A+ F
1.04 62% 57% 24% -2 +1 1.00 29% 1.3 .39 17% .37 71% .26 1.07 72% 40% 26% +3 +2 1.12 25% 0.7 .17 14% .52 48% .25
Jan
10		 TX A&M Corpus Christi B C+ B+ A+ A 55% 21% 24% B- A C A+ A- F B+ A A F+ F F B F 40% 26% 34% B F B F+ C F F B- F
1.16 61% 44% 50% +9 +1 1.21 28% 1.4 .40 24% .46 79% .37 1.15 68% 50% 31% +6 0 1.13 26% 1.1 .29 13% .48 64% .31
Jan
12		 UT Rio Grande Valley D- C F+ F+ D- 35% 23% 42% C- D- F A- D+ D- A A A+ A- C A+ B+ B+ 45% 8% 47% F B- A+ F B- A- A F B+
0.97 60% 30% 28% -5 -1 0.91 22% 1.0 .22 20% .43 78% .34 0.95 59% 25% 30% -3 +2 1.00 14% 1.8 .24 21% .13 100% .13
Jan
17		 Incarnate Word C- A- A C- B- 47% 19% 35% C B- F B F+ F A+ B A+ D+ A+ F D C- 35% 28% 37% B- C D+ F F A- F F F
1.12 70% 50% 33% +7 +1 1.19 21% 1.2 .25 20% .47 76% .36 1.15 27% 67% 38% -1 -1 0.98 33% 1.9 .63 20% .47 88% .42
Jan
19		 Houston Christian A+ C+ A+ B B+ 46% 15% 39% B- B+ A+ A- A+ B+ A+ A- A+ F C F F F 41% 13% 46% F+ F F F F C F D F
1.44 63% 67% 38% +9 +1 1.22 48% 1.3 .61 14% .51 79% .40 1.48 56% 60% 56% +17 +1 1.38 50% 1.4 .68 18% .48 73% .35
Jan
27		 Stephen F. Austin D F F+ C F 43% 31% 26% D F D+ A+ B- B+ F+ D- F+ A B B+ C+ B+ 30% 36% 34% A- A- A F C- B- F+ A- D+
0.94 32% 33% 33% -13 -1 0.74 26% 1.4 .35 14% .21 69% .15 0.97 50% 32% 33% -5 -3 0.87 24% 1.4 .34 14% .29 61% .18
Jan
31		 New Orleans F+ F+ A+ F C- 40% 26% 34% D C- F F F D+ F B+ F C A- D- D+ C 43% 25% 32% C- C D- F F C F C F
0.95 48% 57% 28% -2 -1 0.96 23% 0.8 .17 16% .16 78% .12 1.11 47% 45% 36% -2 0 0.98 39% 1.4 .55 19% .49 74% .37
Feb
2		 Nicholls St. F D F F F 41% 20% 39% D+ F D A+ B C B+ B- A- B A+ F B- A 45% 25% 30% B- A F D F B D- F F
0.92 56% 11% 18% -16 0 0.70 29% 1.5 .44 21% .40 80% .32 0.96 35% 45% 31% -10 0 0.82 33% 1.1 .36 19% .33 76% .25
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
4		 East Texas A&M D+ D A+ A B+ 40% 25% 35% D- B- F A+ F A F+ F F F D+ A+ F F 43% 6% 51% F F A+ F F+ C B+ F C-
1.08 53% 58% 41% +7 0 1.15 13% 1.5 .19 13% .25 50% .13 1.17 62% 0% 44% +7 +2 1.20 15% 2.0 .31 17% .19 90% .17
Feb
7		 East Texas A&M F F F F F 37% 31% 33% F F C+ B+ B F D+ A C+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 42% 12% 46% F+ A+ D- A+ A+ D- F C- F
0.72 17% 27% 25% -23 -1 0.53 34% 1.3 .43 23% .29 80% .23 0.78 41% 17% 25% -16 +1 0.73 29% 0.1 .04 15% .37 67% .25
Feb
9		 Lamar C B D- D D 34% 34% 32% F D- F A D+ A+ D D- D- C+ A D F D- 30% 39% 30% B D B- A A- C F D+ F
1.06 65% 29% 31% -2 -2 0.94 22% 1.3 .27 12% .34 65% .22 1.03 43% 44% 43% +2 -3 1.00 31% 0.7 .23 17% .40 73% .29
Feb
14		 SE Louisiana C B- D+ B C 33% 35% 33% F C- F+ C+ D- A C A+ B+ D- D- F A+ F+ 35% 38% 28% A D F F F A+ F+ C+ D-
1.10 63% 35% 38% +2 -2 1.02 23% 1.2 .27 14% .37 85% .32 1.06 64% 53% 18% +1 -2 1.00 46% 1.2 .57 26% .39 67% .26
Feb
16		 McNeese St. C- A D- F C 43% 33% 25% D- C- C F F A- A+ A A+ D B C+ C C+ 27% 35% 38% A+ B D+ D- D- F C A+ B+
1.01 71% 31% 20% -2 -1 0.95 34% 0.6 .21 20% .54 81% .44 1.18 53% 37% 33% -2 -3 0.93 36% 1.1 .41 8% .29 59% .17
Feb
21		 Houston Christian C- D+ B- F D- 40% 35% 25% F F F A+ C A+ B A- A- A A+ C B- A 39% 25% 36% B- A B F D A B- C+ B-
1.12 58% 41% 25% -2 -2 0.94 23% 1.6 .37 11% .34 79% .27 0.84 35% 36% 31% -11 -1 0.80 24% 1.2 .30 22% .24 67% .16
Feb
23		 Incarnate Word F C F D- F 34% 36% 30% F F F F F C+ C C+ C+ A+ A A A+ A+ 40% 24% 36% C- A+ B+ C- B- B+ D B C-
0.90 60% 25% 31% -6 -2 0.86 21% 0.9 .18 15% .37 74% .27 0.82 44% 27% 25% -13 0 0.76 26% 1.0 .26 18% .31 67% .20
Feb
28		 TX A&M Corpus Christi D+ F F A+ F 51% 27% 22% C- F D A+ B+ C- B- A+ A- F+ D A+ F F+ 41% 14% 45% D F+ B- C- C+ F C- B C
0.98 38% 18% 44% -12 0 0.78 24% 1.6 .38 20% .43 81% .35 1.17 60% 14% 41% +2 +1 1.08 28% 1.0 .28 8% .34 63% .22
Mar
2		 UT Rio Grande Valley D D- A- F D- 61% 20% 18% A- D+ D- C+ D+ F+ A F C+ C- D- A+ F F+ 45% 15% 40% D- F+ A- A+ A D- B+ A- B+
0.96 52% 44% 25% -5 +2 0.95 25% 0.9 .22 20% .43 59% .25 1.15 67% 25% 43% +7 +1 1.19 21% 0.7 .15 14% .18 70% .13
Mar
8		 Nicholls St. F F F D F 39% 22% 39% D F B- F F D- B F C C F A+ B- D- 43% 20% 36% C D- F A+ C A- A- A- A-
0.80 38% 11% 31% -16 0 0.71 38% 0.6 .24 24% .38 71% .27 1.04 79% 11% 31% +2 0 1.07 35% 0.7 .26 20% .21 60% .13



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 100.0 100.0 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 100.0 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4
17-5
16-6
15-7
14-8
13-9
12-10
11-11
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4
17-5
16-6
15-7
14-8
13-9
12-10
11-11
10-12
9-13
8-14 100.0% 100.0
7-15
6-16
5-17
4-18
3-19
2-20
1-21
0-22
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%