Penn St.
Big Ten
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+4.1#105
Expected Predictive Rating+5.6#96
Pace70.5#158
Improvement-0.2#184

Offense
Total Offense+5.0#67
First Shot+3.3#86
After Offensive Rebound+1.7#80
Layup/Dunks+5.3#35
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#143
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.0#280
Freethrows+0.4#150
Improvement+0.4#141

Defense
Total Defense-0.8#196
First Shot-0.8#205
After Offensive Rebounds-0.1#199
Layups/Dunks-1.4#231
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#83
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.0#317
Freethrows+3.3#22
Improvement-0.6#227
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.8% 1.3% 0.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.8% 1.3% 0.4%
Average Seed 10.1 10.0 10.4
.500 or above 24.1% 35.0% 14.3%
.500 or above in Conference 1.6% 2.1% 1.1%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 33.7% 29.7% 37.3%
First Four0.4% 0.6% 0.3%
First Round0.6% 1.0% 0.3%
Second Round0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Pittsburgh (Neutral) - 47.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 70 - 7
Quad 1b1 - 41 - 12
Quad 22 - 43 - 16
Quad 32 - 15 - 17
Quad 49 - 014 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 301 Fairfield W 76-68 91%     1 - 0 -2.4 -1.0 -1.3
  Sat, Nov 8 336 @New Haven W 87-43 87%     2 - 0 +36.2 +23.6 +18.2
  Tue, Nov 11 207 Navy W 80-71 83%     3 - 0 +3.0 +7.4 -4.3
  Sat, Nov 15 238 La Salle W 83-69 79%     4 - 0 +9.6 +18.1 -7.1
  Wed, Nov 19 200 Harvard W 84-80 82%     5 - 0 -1.6 +17.0 -18.2
  Sat, Nov 22 73 Providence L 65-77 36%     5 - 1 -4.2 -7.8 +3.7
  Tue, Nov 25 288 Boston University W 96-87 90%     6 - 1 -0.9 +24.2 -24.2
  Sat, Nov 29 268 Sacred Heart W 90-59 88%     7 - 1 +22.2 +2.0 +17.2
  Tue, Dec 2 229 Campbell W 87-76 85%     8 - 1 +3.9 +7.9 -4.4
  Tue, Dec 9 26 @Indiana L 72-113 11%     8 - 2 0 - 1 -23.2 +4.8 -26.2
  Sat, Dec 13 11 Michigan St. L 72-76 15%     8 - 3 0 - 2 +11.1 +9.6 +1.5
  Sun, Dec 21 102 Pittsburgh L 75-76 47%    
  Mon, Dec 29 350 NC Central W 83-64 96%    
  Sat, Jan 3 12 Illinois L 74-88 10%    
  Tue, Jan 6 1 Michigan L 71-91 3%    
  Sat, Jan 10 7 @Purdue L 67-86 4%    
  Wed, Jan 14 30 UCLA L 72-79 26%    
  Sun, Jan 18 95 @Maryland L 77-81 35%    
  Thu, Jan 22 43 Wisconsin L 78-83 33%    
  Mon, Jan 26 31 @Ohio St. L 73-86 12%    
  Thu, Jan 29 59 @Northwestern L 75-83 22%    
  Sun, Feb 1 96 Minnesota W 73-71 57%    
  Thu, Feb 5 1 @Michigan L 68-94 1%    
  Sun, Feb 8 36 USC L 78-83 31%    
  Wed, Feb 11 48 @Washington L 73-83 18%    
  Sat, Feb 14 62 @Oregon L 74-82 24%    
  Wed, Feb 18 130 Rutgers W 78-73 68%    
  Sat, Feb 21 24 @Nebraska L 71-85 11%    
  Sat, Feb 28 22 Iowa L 69-77 22%    
  Wed, Mar 4 31 Ohio St. L 76-83 28%    
  Sun, Mar 8 130 @Rutgers L 75-76 48%    
Projected Record 14 - 17 5 - 15




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 6th
7th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 0.8 0.2 0.0 1.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.5 1.6 0.7 0.0 2.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.4 1.9 1.7 0.2 4.2 12th
13th 0.1 2.1 3.1 1.0 0.0 6.4 13th
14th 0.1 2.2 5.3 2.4 0.2 0.0 10.1 14th
15th 0.1 2.1 6.3 4.3 0.6 0.0 13.4 15th
16th 0.1 2.3 7.4 6.3 1.3 0.1 17.5 16th
17th 0.2 2.9 8.4 7.6 1.8 0.1 0.0 21.0 17th
18th 1.1 4.9 8.0 5.8 1.3 0.1 21.3 18th
Total 1.1 5.1 11.1 16.6 18.6 16.8 13.4 8.5 5.1 2.2 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.0% 0.0
13-7 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 68.8% 68.8% 8.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 68.8%
11-9 0.4% 49.6% 49.6% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 49.6%
10-10 1.0% 30.8% 30.8% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.7 30.8%
9-11 2.2% 7.3% 7.3% 10.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 2.1 7.3%
8-12 5.1% 0.5% 0.5% 10.5 0.0 0.0 5.1 0.5%
7-13 8.5% 0.2% 0.2% 11.0 0.0 8.5 0.2%
6-14 13.4% 13.4
5-15 16.8% 16.8
4-16 18.6% 18.6
3-17 16.6% 16.6
2-18 11.1% 11.1
1-19 5.1% 5.1
0-20 1.1% 1.1
Total 100% 0.8% 0.0% 0.8% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.0 99.2 0.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%