Stetson
Atlantic Sun
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-11.8#345
Expected Predictive Rating-11.0#323
Pace68.8#201
Improvement+0.3#156

Offense
Total Offense-6.2#334
First Shot-4.6#306
After Offensive Rebound-1.5#281
Layup/Dunks-4.5#323
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#222
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#103
Freethrows-2.1#297
Improvement+0.1#172

Defense
Total Defense-5.6#340
First Shot-4.8#330
After Offensive Rebounds-0.8#248
Layups/Dunks-0.6#199
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#173
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.9#360
Freethrows+2.4#49
Improvement+0.2#166
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.3% 0.9% 0.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.4% 2.7% 0.3%
.500 or above in Conference 8.5% 18.6% 8.4%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.9% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 38.7% 21.4% 38.8%
First Four0.3% 0.9% 0.3%
First Round0.2% 0.9% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Oklahoma (Away) - 0.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 31 - 71 - 12
Quad 47 - 117 - 23


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 116 @Rhode Island L 62-93 6%     0 - 1 -24.6 -9.4 -13.6
  Mon, Nov 10 33 @Miami (FL) L 61-102 1%     0 - 2 -24.8 -10.4 -9.8
  Sun, Nov 16 297 @Western Carolina L 65-76 24%     0 - 3 -15.3 -11.8 -3.1
  Wed, Nov 19 283 Howard W 64-60 41%     1 - 3 -5.6 -10.3 +4.8
  Sat, Nov 22 331 VMI W 99-80 56%     2 - 3 +5.6 +24.0 -17.3
  Tue, Nov 25 153 Wright St. L 62-79 19%     2 - 4 -19.5 -6.6 -14.3
  Sat, Nov 29 316 Southern Utah L 68-70 40%     2 - 5 -11.1 -8.1 -3.0
  Sun, Nov 30 183 @Robert Morris L 62-80 11%     2 - 6 -16.6 -0.9 -18.3
  Tue, Dec 2 91 @Grand Canyon L 45-67 4%     2 - 7 -13.2 -19.0 +4.6
  Sat, Dec 6 86 @South Carolina L 51-82 4%     2 - 8 -21.7 -11.4 -13.5
  Mon, Dec 22 47 @Oklahoma L 63-89 1%    
  Thu, Jan 1 214 @North Alabama L 66-77 14%    
  Sat, Jan 3 286 @Central Arkansas L 68-76 22%    
  Thu, Jan 8 142 Lipscomb L 70-80 18%    
  Sat, Jan 10 191 Austin Peay L 67-74 27%    
  Thu, Jan 15 313 West Georgia W 74-73 50%    
  Sat, Jan 17 210 Queens L 76-82 31%    
  Thu, Jan 22 142 @Lipscomb L 67-83 7%    
  Sat, Jan 24 191 @Austin Peay L 64-77 12%    
  Thu, Jan 29 343 @North Florida L 78-81 38%    
  Sat, Jan 31 214 North Alabama L 69-74 31%    
  Thu, Feb 5 275 @Bellarmine L 70-79 22%    
  Sat, Feb 7 243 @Eastern Kentucky L 69-79 18%    
  Thu, Feb 12 309 Jacksonville L 70-71 50%    
  Sat, Feb 14 184 @Florida Gulf Coast L 69-82 12%    
  Thu, Feb 19 286 Central Arkansas L 71-73 43%    
  Sat, Feb 21 343 North Florida W 81-78 59%    
  Thu, Feb 26 309 @Jacksonville L 68-74 29%    
  Sat, Feb 28 184 Florida Gulf Coast L 72-79 27%    
Projected Record 7 - 22 5 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 2nd
3rd 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.4 0.0 1.5 4th
5th 0.1 1.1 1.0 0.2 0.0 2.4 5th
6th 0.2 1.5 1.9 0.4 0.0 4.0 6th
7th 0.1 1.5 3.1 1.0 0.0 5.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.8 4.2 2.1 0.1 8.3 8th
9th 0.2 1.9 5.5 4.0 0.5 12.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 2.8 6.7 5.2 1.0 0.0 16.0 10th
11th 0.0 1.1 4.7 8.0 6.6 1.5 0.0 22.1 11th
12th 1.0 4.0 7.4 8.3 4.7 1.2 0.1 0.0 26.7 12th
Total 1.0 4.1 8.5 13.3 15.7 16.6 14.2 10.8 7.4 4.3 2.4 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-4 64.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-5 34.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 5.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-4 0.0% 0.0
13-5 0.2% 3.8% 3.8% 16.0 0.0 0.2
12-6 0.5% 4.4% 4.4% 16.0 0.0 0.4
11-7 1.1% 5.6% 5.6% 16.0 0.1 1.1
10-8 2.4% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 2.3
9-9 4.3% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.1 4.3
8-10 7.4% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 7.3
7-11 10.8% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 10.7
6-12 14.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 14.2
5-13 16.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 16.6
4-14 15.7% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 15.7
3-15 13.3% 13.3
2-16 8.5% 8.5
1-17 4.1% 4.1
0-18 1.0% 1.0
Total 100% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 0.3 99.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.0%