IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
UC Davis
Big West
2025-26

Overall
Predictive Rating	-4.9	#252
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	67.5	#197
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-4.8	#309

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-0.1	#167

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	2.2%	3.1%	1.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	13.7	13.4	13.8

.500 or above	25.8%	36.0%	14.2%
.500 or above in Conference	34.3%	41.9%	25.8%
Conference Champion	2.3%	3.3%	1.1%
Last Place in Conference	13.2%	9.1%	17.9%

First Four	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%
First Round	2.2%	3.2%	1.2%
Second Round	0.1%	0.3%	0.0%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: North Dakota St. (Home) - 53.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 2
Quad 2	0 - 3	0 - 5
Quad 3	3 - 7	3 - 13
Quad 4	9 - 6	12 - 18

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 05, 2025	208	North Dakota St.	W	68-67	53%
Nov 09, 2025	262	@ Portland	L	69-72	41%
Nov 14, 2025	272	Sacramento St.	W	68-64	64%
Nov 18, 2025	98	@ Nevada	L	57-70	12%
Nov 21, 2025	82	@ Colorado	L	60-75	10%
Nov 24, 2025	234	Louisiana	W	68-66	57%
Dec 05, 2025	134	@ Hawaii	L	61-71	20%
Dec 13, 2025	28	@ Oregon	L	58-80	3%
Dec 17, 2025	121	Seattle	L	63-67	36%
Dec 21, 2025	282	@ Idaho St.	L	65-66	46%
Jan 01, 2026	176	Cal St. Northridge	L	73-74	48%
Jan 03, 2026	223	Cal St. Bakersfield	W	68-66	55%
Jan 08, 2026	135	@ UC Santa Barbara	L	62-72	21%
Jan 10, 2026	256	@ Cal Poly	L	76-79	40%
Jan 15, 2026	337	Cal St. Fullerton	W	71-62	76%
Jan 17, 2026	93	UC Irvine	L	65-72	27%
Jan 22, 2026	117	UC San Diego	L	64-69	35%
Jan 24, 2026	258	UC Riverside	W	70-67	60%
Jan 29, 2026	176	@ Cal St. Northridge	L	70-77	29%
Jan 31, 2026	223	@ Cal St. Bakersfield	L	65-69	36%
Feb 05, 2026	135	UC Santa Barbara	L	65-69	38%
Feb 07, 2026	256	Cal Poly	W	79-76	60%
Feb 12, 2026	117	@ UC San Diego	L	61-72	19%
Feb 14, 2026	264	Long Beach St.	W	67-63	61%
Feb 19, 2026	337	@ Cal St. Fullerton	W	68-65	59%
Feb 21, 2026	258	@ UC Riverside	L	67-70	41%
Feb 26, 2026	134	Hawaii	L	64-68	39%
Mar 05, 2026	264	@ Long Beach St.	L	64-66	42%
Mar 07, 2026	93	@ UC Irvine	L	62-75	14%
Projected Record						11 - 18	8 - 12

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Big West Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0		Total
1st													0.0	0.0	0.3	0.5	0.6	0.5	0.2	0.1	0.0		2.3	1st
2nd												0.0	0.2	0.8	1.3	1.0	0.5	0.1	0.0				3.9	2nd
3rd											0.0	0.5	1.4	2.1	1.2	0.4	0.0						5.8	3rd
4th									0.0	0.1	0.7	2.4	2.8	1.3	0.2	0.0							7.5	4th
5th								0.0	0.1	1.1	3.3	3.4	1.4	0.2	0.0								9.6	5th
6th								0.1	1.5	4.5	3.8	1.3	0.2										11.5	6th
7th						0.0	0.3	2.1	4.8	4.0	1.2	0.1											12.6	7th
8th					0.0	0.5	2.7	5.1	3.6	1.0	0.1												13.0	8th
9th				0.1	1.1	3.3	4.6	3.3	0.9	0.1													13.4	9th
10th		0.0	0.5	1.7	3.7	3.7	2.0	0.3	0.0														12.0	10th
11th	0.3	1.1	2.1	2.4	1.7	0.7	0.2	0.0															8.5	11th

Total	0.3	1.1	2.7	4.2	6.5	8.2	9.8	11.0	11.0	10.9	9.1	7.7	6.0	4.4	3.0	2.0	1.1	0.6	0.2	0.1	0.0			Total

Big West Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
20-0	100.0%	0.0		0.0
19-1	100.0%	0.1		0.1
18-2	99.9%	0.2		0.2	0.0
17-3	86.7%	0.5		0.4	0.1	0.0
16-4	52.7%	0.6		0.3	0.2	0.1
15-5	27.8%	0.5		0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0
14-6	8.2%	0.3		0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
13-7	0.5%	0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0		0.0
12-8	0.1%	0.0					0.0	0.0
11-9	0.0%
10-10	0.0%

Total	2.3%	2.3		1.3	0.7	0.2	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
20-0	0.0%		66.7%	66.7%		10.0										0.0		0.0						0.0
19-1	0.1%		47.4%	47.4%		11.4												0.0	0.0					0.0
18-2	0.2%		34.0%	34.0%		12.4												0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0			0.1
17-3	0.6%		31.6%	31.6%		12.5												0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.4
16-4	1.1%		26.5%	26.5%		12.9												0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0		0.8
15-5	2.0%		22.4%	22.4%		13.3												0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0	1.5
14-6	3.0%		12.3%	12.3%		13.6													0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	2.7
13-7	4.4%		6.8%	6.8%		14.1													0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	4.1
12-8	6.0%		2.8%	2.8%		14.0														0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	5.9
11-9	7.7%		2.3%	2.3%		15.3														0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	7.5
10-10	9.1%		1.0%	1.0%		16.1														0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	9.0
9-11	10.9%		0.4%	0.4%		17.2															0.0	0.0	0.0	10.8
8-12	11.0%		0.3%	0.3%		17.9																0.0	0.0	11.0
7-13	11.0%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	11.0
6-14	9.8%																							9.8
5-15	8.2%																							8.2
4-16	6.5%																							6.5
3-17	4.2%																							4.2
2-18	2.7%																							2.7
1-19	1.1%																							1.1
0-20	0.3%																							0.3

Total	100%		2.2%	2.2%	0.0%	13.7										0.0		0.1	0.4	0.7	0.6	0.4	0.1	97.8		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.1%