UC Davis
Big West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.4#197
Expected Predictive Rating-0.2#169
Pace69.9#174
Improvement-2.8#338

Offense
Total Offense-2.5#234
First Shot+0.7#156
After Offensive Rebound-3.1#346
Layup/Dunks-1.6#241
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#142
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#161
Freethrows+1.1#108
Improvement-0.8#246

Defense
Total Defense+0.1#161
First Shot-1.0#213
After Offensive Rebounds+1.1#106
Layups/Dunks-0.4#190
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#125
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#231
Freethrows-0.3#201
Improvement-2.0#315
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.3% 4.7% 2.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.9 13.7 14.1
.500 or above 47.4% 65.4% 39.3%
.500 or above in Conference 54.0% 63.0% 49.9%
Conference Champion 2.0% 2.8% 1.7%
Last Place in Conference 4.8% 2.8% 5.7%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round3.3% 4.7% 2.6%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Idaho St. (Away) - 31.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 21 - 31 - 5
Quad 33 - 75 - 12
Quad 410 - 415 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Wed, Nov 5 148 North Dakota St. W 80-68 49%     1 - 0 +9.9 +7.8 +2.3
  Sun, Nov 9 246 @Portland L 63-67 48%     1 - 1 -5.9 -9.6 +3.6
  Fri, Nov 14 281 Sacramento St. W 77-73 75%     2 - 1 -5.5 -2.1 -3.5
  Tue, Nov 18 98 @Nevada W 75-71 17%     3 - 1 +12.0 +1.0 +10.8
  Fri, Nov 21 65 @Colorado L 79-95 10%     3 - 2 -4.4 +9.5 -13.9
  Mon, Nov 24 327 Louisiana W 77-56 84%     4 - 2 +8.2 +6.5 +3.2
  Thu, Dec 4 110 @Hawaii L 69-75 20%     4 - 3 0 - 1 +0.5 +2.2 -1.6
  Sat, Dec 13 62 @Oregon L 62-104 10%     4 - 4 -30.1 -7.7 -21.1
  Wed, Dec 17 123 Seattle L 78-79 41%     4 - 5 -1.1 +2.1 -3.2
  Sun, Dec 21 161 @Idaho St. L 66-71 31%    
  Thu, Jan 1 217 Cal St. Northridge W 80-76 66%    
  Sat, Jan 3 312 Cal St. Bakersfield W 79-69 81%    
  Thu, Jan 8 159 @UC Santa Barbara L 70-75 31%    
  Sat, Jan 10 252 @Cal Poly L 80-81 50%    
  Thu, Jan 15 267 Cal St. Fullerton W 83-77 72%    
  Sat, Jan 17 121 UC Irvine L 67-69 42%    
  Thu, Jan 22 85 UC San Diego L 71-77 30%    
  Sat, Jan 24 265 UC Riverside W 76-70 72%    
  Thu, Jan 29 217 @Cal St. Northridge L 77-79 43%    
  Sat, Jan 31 312 @Cal St. Bakersfield W 76-72 62%    
  Thu, Feb 5 159 UC Santa Barbara W 73-72 53%    
  Sat, Feb 7 252 Cal Poly W 84-78 70%    
  Thu, Feb 12 85 @UC San Diego L 68-80 15%    
  Sat, Feb 14 276 Long Beach St. W 75-68 73%    
  Thu, Feb 19 267 @Cal St. Fullerton W 80-79 52%    
  Sat, Feb 21 265 @UC Riverside W 73-72 51%    
  Thu, Feb 26 110 Hawaii L 69-72 40%    
  Thu, Mar 5 276 @Long Beach St. W 72-71 53%    
  Sat, Mar 7 121 @UC Irvine L 64-72 23%    
Projected Record 14 - 15 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.6 1.4 0.6 0.1 0.0 4.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 2.9 3.6 2.3 0.7 0.1 10.2 3rd
4th 0.2 1.7 4.8 5.2 2.7 0.6 0.0 15.3 4th
5th 0.3 2.6 6.3 5.9 2.4 0.3 0.0 17.8 5th
6th 0.3 2.6 6.1 4.4 1.4 0.1 15.0 6th
7th 0.2 2.1 5.4 3.7 0.8 0.0 12.2 7th
8th 0.1 1.5 3.8 2.8 0.7 0.0 9.0 8th
9th 0.1 1.2 2.7 2.3 0.4 0.0 6.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.8 1.4 0.3 0.0 4.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.1 2.4 11th
Total 0.1 0.2 0.9 1.8 3.7 5.8 8.8 11.5 13.2 13.4 12.8 10.8 7.6 4.8 2.6 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
18-2 93.3% 0.1    0.1 0.0
17-3 80.1% 0.4    0.3 0.1 0.0
16-4 49.3% 0.7    0.3 0.3 0.1
15-5 19.2% 0.5    0.2 0.3 0.1
14-6 5.8% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1
13-7 0.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 2.0% 2.0 0.8 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0
18-2 0.1% 30.0% 30.0% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-3 0.5% 25.2% 25.2% 12.6 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4
16-4 1.4% 24.3% 24.3% 13.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.0
15-5 2.6% 16.9% 16.9% 13.3 0.1 0.2 0.2 2.2
14-6 4.8% 12.8% 12.8% 13.7 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 4.2
13-7 7.6% 7.2% 7.2% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 7.0
12-8 10.8% 4.6% 4.6% 14.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 10.3
11-9 12.8% 2.3% 2.3% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 12.5
10-10 13.4% 1.8% 1.8% 15.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 13.2
9-11 13.2% 0.6% 0.6% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 13.1
8-12 11.5% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 11.5
7-13 8.8% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 8.7
6-14 5.8% 5.8
5-15 3.7% 3.7
4-16 1.8% 1.8
3-17 0.9% 0.9
2-18 0.2% 0.2
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20
Total 100% 3.3% 3.3% 0.0% 13.9 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.3 0.7 0.2 96.7 0.0%