VMI
Southern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-10.4#331
Expected Predictive Rating-11.7#328
Pace68.0#222
Improvement+1.4#80

Offense
Total Offense-4.0#277
First Shot-4.3#297
After Offensive Rebound+0.3#161
Layup/Dunks-7.4#355
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#133
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.3#79
Freethrows-0.9#240
Improvement+1.8#58

Defense
Total Defense-6.4#347
First Shot-0.6#193
After Offensive Rebounds-5.8#364
Layups/Dunks-0.1#171
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#247
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#261
Freethrows+2.2#59
Improvement-0.3#204
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.7% 1.2% 0.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 1.3% 3.5% 0.7%
.500 or above in Conference 11.9% 17.3% 10.4%
Conference Champion 0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 28.6% 21.8% 30.5%
First Four0.6% 0.9% 0.5%
First Round0.3% 0.7% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Radford (Away) - 22.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 31 - 71 - 11
Quad 47 - 108 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Fri, Nov 7 318 @Southern Indiana W 78-74 34%     1 - 0 -2.2 -4.2 +1.5
  Sun, Nov 9 49 @Missouri L 68-106 2%     1 - 1 -24.0 -5.7 -15.6
  Sat, Nov 15 309 Jacksonville L 67-69 55%     1 - 2 -13.7 -7.3 -6.5
  Wed, Nov 19 104 @Richmond L 54-87 6%     1 - 3 -25.8 -11.9 -15.9
  Sat, Nov 22 345 @Stetson L 80-99 44%     1 - 4 -27.8 +7.7 -36.6
  Mon, Nov 24 209 Buffalo L 70-78 24%     1 - 5 -11.2 -3.3 -8.3
  Wed, Nov 26 125 Bowling Green L 48-81 12%     1 - 6 -30.5 -19.5 -12.7
  Sat, Nov 29 55 @Central Florida L 57-82 3%     1 - 7 -12.1 -9.7 -3.1
  Tue, Dec 9 340 Loyola Maryland W 86-70 64%     2 - 7 +1.9 +14.5 -10.8
  Sun, Dec 21 253 @Radford L 75-83 22%    
  Thu, Jan 1 232 Samford L 74-77 38%    
  Sat, Jan 3 247 Chattanooga L 73-75 41%    
  Wed, Jan 7 124 @East Tennessee St. L 65-81 7%    
  Sat, Jan 10 152 @Furman L 67-81 10%    
  Thu, Jan 15 170 Mercer L 74-81 27%    
  Sat, Jan 17 354 The Citadel W 76-70 71%    
  Wed, Jan 21 291 UNC Greensboro L 74-75 49%    
  Sat, Jan 24 297 @Western Carolina L 73-79 28%    
  Thu, Jan 29 354 @The Citadel W 73-72 51%    
  Sat, Jan 31 170 @Mercer L 71-84 13%    
  Wed, Feb 4 221 Wofford L 72-76 36%    
  Sat, Feb 7 124 East Tennessee St. L 68-78 18%    
  Wed, Feb 11 291 @UNC Greensboro L 71-77 29%    
  Sat, Feb 14 152 Furman L 70-78 24%    
  Wed, Feb 18 221 @Wofford L 69-79 19%    
  Sat, Feb 21 297 Western Carolina L 75-76 49%    
  Thu, Feb 26 232 @Samford L 71-80 20%    
  Sat, Feb 28 247 @Chattanooga L 70-78 23%    
Projected Record 8 - 20 6 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.8 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.6 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 1.8 3rd
4th 0.1 1.2 1.6 0.5 0.0 3.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 1.9 2.6 1.0 0.1 0.0 5.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 2.4 4.1 1.6 0.2 0.0 8.8 6th
7th 0.0 1.0 4.4 5.8 2.5 0.2 14.0 7th
8th 0.3 2.0 6.4 7.5 3.1 0.4 19.6 8th
9th 0.1 1.4 5.3 9.0 7.6 2.8 0.3 0.0 26.5 9th
10th 0.6 2.9 5.5 5.7 3.3 0.9 0.1 18.9 10th
Total 0.6 3.0 6.9 11.3 14.3 16.0 15.3 11.8 9.0 5.6 3.4 1.6 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-3 75.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-4 51.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 28.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 7.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.3% 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.0% 0.0
15-3 0.1% 0.0 0.0
14-4 0.1% 12.8% 12.8% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.1
13-5 0.3% 6.7% 6.7% 16.0 0.0 0.3
12-6 0.8% 6.3% 6.3% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.7
11-7 1.6% 3.1% 3.1% 15.9 0.0 0.0 1.6
10-8 3.4% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.1 3.3
9-9 5.6% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.1 5.5
8-10 9.0% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.1 8.9
7-11 11.8% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 11.7
6-12 15.3% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 15.2
5-13 16.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 16.0
4-14 14.3% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 14.3
3-15 11.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 11.3
2-16 6.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 6.9
1-17 3.0% 3.0
0-18 0.6% 0.6
Total 100% 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.6 99.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.4%