Preseason Rankings
VMI
Southern
2025-26
Overall
Predictive Rating-7.5#296
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace69.6#131
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-3.7#283
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-3.7#295
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.2% 3.1% 1.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 14.4 15.2
.500 or above 17.7% 28.6% 10.5%
.500 or above in Conference 26.0% 34.4% 20.5%
Conference Champion 1.7% 2.8% 0.9%
Last Place in Conference 21.2% 15.4% 25.1%
First Four0.6% 0.5% 0.6%
First Round2.1% 3.1% 1.4%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Southern Indiana (Away) - 39.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 32 - 72 - 12
Quad 49 - 711 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2025 298   @ Southern Indiana L 71-74 40%    
  Nov 09, 2025 37   @ Missouri L 63-87 2%    
  Nov 15, 2025 253   Jacksonville W 70-69 52%    
  Nov 19, 2025 137   @ Richmond L 62-74 14%    
  Nov 22, 2025 350   @ Stetson W 74-72 56%    
  Nov 24, 2025 334   Buffalo W 77-74 60%    
  Nov 26, 2025 220   Bowling Green L 71-75 36%    
  Nov 29, 2025 74   @ Central Florida L 68-86 5%    
  Dec 09, 2025 317   Loyola Maryland W 72-68 65%    
  Dec 21, 2025 150   @ Radford L 62-73 18%    
  Jan 01, 2026 166   Samford L 75-79 38%    
  Jan 03, 2026 125   Chattanooga L 69-76 29%    
  Jan 07, 2026 152   @ East Tennessee St. L 63-74 18%    
  Jan 10, 2026 133   @ Furman L 65-77 15%    
  Jan 15, 2026 248   Mercer W 75-74 52%    
  Jan 17, 2026 342   The Citadel W 72-65 72%    
  Jan 21, 2026 225   UNC Greensboro L 66-67 47%    
  Jan 24, 2026 273   @ Western Carolina L 72-76 36%    
  Jan 29, 2026 342   @ The Citadel W 69-68 54%    
  Jan 31, 2026 248   @ Mercer L 71-77 32%    
  Feb 04, 2026 206   Wofford L 68-70 45%    
  Feb 07, 2026 152   East Tennessee St. L 66-71 34%    
  Feb 11, 2026 225   @ UNC Greensboro L 63-70 29%    
  Feb 14, 2026 133   Furman L 68-74 31%    
  Feb 18, 2026 206   @ Wofford L 65-73 27%    
  Feb 21, 2026 273   Western Carolina W 75-73 56%    
  Feb 26, 2026 166   @ Samford L 72-82 22%    
  Feb 28, 2026 125   @ Chattanooga L 66-79 15%    
Projected Record 10 - 18 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.7 1st
2nd 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.1 0.4 0.1 3.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.0 1.9 1.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 4.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.6 2.9 1.8 0.3 0.0 6.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.1 3.8 2.2 0.3 0.0 8.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 2.8 4.6 2.6 0.4 0.0 10.9 6th
7th 0.1 1.2 4.2 5.3 2.8 0.4 0.0 14.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.3 5.5 5.7 2.4 0.4 0.0 16.7 8th
9th 0.1 1.4 4.0 6.2 4.9 1.9 0.2 18.8 9th
10th 0.8 2.6 4.2 3.9 2.0 0.5 0.0 14.2 10th
Total 0.8 2.7 5.6 8.4 10.6 12.1 12.4 11.1 10.2 8.5 6.7 4.4 3.0 1.9 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-2 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
15-3 82.1% 0.4    0.3 0.1 0.0
14-4 49.8% 0.5    0.2 0.2 0.0
13-5 23.7% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 4.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.7% 1.7 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 33.3% 33.3% 11.0 0.0 0.0 33.3%
17-1 0.1% 68.9% 68.9% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.2% 23.3% 23.3% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-3 0.4% 24.5% 24.5% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3
14-4 0.9% 17.2% 17.2% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.8
13-5 1.9% 15.0% 15.0% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.6
12-6 3.0% 10.5% 10.5% 15.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 2.7
11-7 4.4% 5.8% 5.8% 17.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 4.2
10-8 6.7% 4.4% 4.4% 17.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 6.4
9-9 8.5% 3.4% 3.4% 17.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 8.2
8-10 10.2% 1.8% 1.8% 16.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 10.0
7-11 11.1% 0.9% 0.9% 16.6 0.0 0.1 11.0
6-12 12.4% 0.4% 0.4% 17.2 0.0 0.0 12.4
5-13 12.1% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 12.1
4-14 10.6% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 10.6
3-15 8.4% 8.4
2-16 5.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 5.6
1-17 2.7% 2.7
0-18 0.8% 0.8
Total 100% 2.2% 2.2% 0.0% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.9 97.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%