Akron
Mid-American
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+8.4#65
Expected Predictive Rating+5.2#102
Pace76.6#34
Improvement-3.0#343

Offense
Total Offense+9.6#16
First Shot+5.7#42
After Offensive Rebound+3.9#18
Layup/Dunks+3.5#69
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#207
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.6#73
Freethrows-0.9#234
Improvement+0.1#171

Defense
Total Defense-1.1#205
First Shot-0.9#211
After Offensive Rebounds-0.2#207
Layups/Dunks-0.2#176
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#141
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.7#311
Freethrows+2.3#62
Improvement-3.1#352
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.5% 0.5% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 43.2% 43.7% 36.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
Average Seed 11.8 11.8 12.4
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 99.7%
.500 or above in Conference 99.7% 99.8% 98.4%
Conference Champion 68.1% 70.1% 43.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
First Round43.1% 43.6% 36.8%
Second Round10.4% 10.7% 6.6%
Sweet Sixteen2.6% 2.7% 1.4%
Elite Eight0.5% 0.5% 0.2%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Eastern Michigan (Home) - 92.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 12 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 21 - 21 - 4
Quad 38 - 29 - 6
Quad 414 - 124 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 183 James Madison W 85-71 88%     1 - 0 +9.4 +4.9 +4.1
  Sat, Nov 8 255 Princeton W 104-69 93%     2 - 0 +26.7 +19.1 +4.3
  Sun, Nov 16 7 @Purdue L 79-97 9%     2 - 1 +5.5 +12.3 -6.2
  Fri, Nov 21 170 Iona W 96-75 81%     3 - 1 +20.1 +13.7 +4.4
  Sun, Nov 23 276 Evansville W 97-59 90%     4 - 1 +32.0 +23.2 +8.8
  Mon, Nov 24 79 Yale L 94-97 54%     4 - 2 +4.4 +25.4 -21.2
  Sat, Nov 29 229 Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 105-81 92%     5 - 2 +17.2 +17.5 -2.7
  Wed, Dec 3 302 Bucknell W 97-77 95%     6 - 2 +9.1 +22.4 -12.9
  Sat, Dec 6 207 @Tulane W 88-71 79%     7 - 2 +17.0 +11.9 +4.9
  Sat, Dec 13 100 Murray St. L 100-115 63%     7 - 3 -10.1 +12.1 -20.0
  Fri, Dec 19 228 Eastern Michigan W 87-72 92%    
  Sat, Jan 3 106 @Miami (OH) W 87-85 56%    
  Tue, Jan 6 322 Central Michigan W 93-72 98%    
  Sat, Jan 10 125 @Bowling Green W 84-81 61%    
  Tue, Jan 13 308 Ball St. W 88-68 97%    
  Sat, Jan 17 242 Western Michigan W 92-76 93%    
  Tue, Jan 20 209 @Buffalo W 89-80 78%    
  Sat, Jan 24 175 @Ohio W 90-84 72%    
  Tue, Jan 27 167 Toledo W 93-81 87%    
  Fri, Jan 30 124 Kent St. W 96-87 77%    
  Tue, Feb 3 228 @Eastern Michigan W 84-75 80%    
  Sat, Feb 14 152 Massachusetts W 93-82 84%    
  Tue, Feb 17 242 @Western Michigan W 89-79 81%    
  Sat, Feb 21 308 @Ball St. W 85-71 89%    
  Tue, Feb 24 209 Buffalo W 92-77 90%    
  Sat, Feb 28 124 @Kent St. W 93-90 58%    
  Tue, Mar 3 322 @Central Michigan W 90-75 91%    
  Fri, Mar 6 326 Northern Illinois W 95-74 97%    
Projected Record 22 - 6 15 - 3




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 2.4 9.1 17.0 20.0 14.0 5.3 68.1 1st
2nd 0.1 1.7 5.6 6.6 3.3 0.8 0.0 18.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 3.0 2.7 0.8 0.1 7.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 1.4 1.3 0.3 0.0 3.3 4th
5th 0.1 0.7 0.8 0.2 0.0 1.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 13th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.5 3.2 6.4 11.1 16.5 20.4 20.8 14.1 5.3 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 5.3    5.3
17-1 99.8% 14.0    13.8 0.2
16-2 96.3% 20.0    17.9 2.1 0.0
15-3 83.4% 17.0    12.0 4.6 0.4
14-4 55.0% 9.1    4.1 3.9 1.0 0.1 0.0
13-5 22.0% 2.4    0.5 1.1 0.7 0.2 0.0
12-6 4.2% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 68.1% 68.1 53.6 11.9 2.1 0.3 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 5.3% 66.7% 64.5% 2.2% 9.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.6 1.1 0.1 1.8 6.1%
17-1 14.1% 56.6% 56.3% 0.3% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.3 4.6 3.0 0.1 6.1 0.7%
16-2 20.8% 51.0% 51.0% 0.0% 11.8 0.0 2.8 6.9 0.9 0.0 10.2 0.1%
15-3 20.4% 42.9% 42.8% 0.0% 12.2 0.8 5.9 1.9 0.1 11.6 0.0%
14-4 16.5% 37.3% 37.3% 12.4 0.2 3.4 2.4 0.2 0.0 10.3
13-5 11.1% 30.9% 30.9% 12.7 0.0 1.4 1.7 0.3 7.6
12-6 6.4% 26.9% 26.9% 12.9 0.0 0.5 1.0 0.3 0.0 4.7
11-7 3.2% 21.2% 21.2% 13.3 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 2.6
10-8 1.5% 18.4% 18.4% 13.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.2
9-9 0.6% 16.4% 16.4% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.5
8-10 0.2% 3.8% 3.8% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
7-11 0.1% 0.1
6-12 0.0% 0.0
5-13 0.0% 0.0
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 43.2% 43.0% 0.2% 11.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.9 9.5 21.3 8.5 1.3 0.1 56.8 0.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 3.4% 100.0% 9.2 1.2 4.1 7.9 9.7 8.6 16.1 18.0 30.3 4.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.8% 9.2% 11.0 0.9 7.9 0.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.7% 4.2% 10.9 0.9 2.8 0.5