Central Connecticut St.
Northeast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.6#241
Expected Predictive Rating+1.2#156
Pace64.9#300
Improvement+0.0#182

Offense
Total Offense-4.0#273
First Shot-0.7#190
After Offensive Rebound-3.3#347
Layup/Dunks-2.0#255
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.1#38
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#205
Freethrows-0.9#242
Improvement+2.3#39

Defense
Total Defense-0.6#188
First Shot-3.2#285
After Offensive Rebounds+2.6#29
Layups/Dunks-1.9#253
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#96
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.8#318
Freethrows+1.3#102
Improvement-2.3#329
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 31.0% 35.0% 28.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.7 15.5 15.8
.500 or above 91.5% 94.4% 83.7%
.500 or above in Conference 92.3% 92.4% 91.9%
Conference Champion 51.4% 54.4% 43.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.5% 0.4% 0.7%
First Four13.0% 12.2% 15.0%
First Round26.3% 28.7% 19.8%
Second Round0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Fairfield (Home) - 72.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 11 - 2
Quad 32 - 32 - 5
Quad 416 - 618 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Thu, Nov 6 168 @Quinnipiac L 49-71 26%     0 - 1 -19.8 -20.4 +0.3
  Tue, Nov 11 150 @Boston College W 60-59 21%     1 - 1 +4.7 -4.1 +8.8
  Sun, Nov 16 152 @Massachusetts L 77-84 22%     1 - 2 -3.5 -0.6 -2.2
  Fri, Nov 21 133 @Rutgers W 67-54 19%     2 - 2 +17.7 +5.5 +13.9
  Mon, Nov 24 254 Sacred Heart W 108-106 OT 64%     3 - 2 -6.2 +14.1 -20.6
  Wed, Dec 3 56 @Seton Hall L 61-77 6%     3 - 3 -3.4 +3.1 -8.2
  Sun, Dec 7 211 @Northeastern L 56-73 33%     3 - 4 -17.2 -13.4 -4.2
  Sat, Dec 13 356 @Binghamton W 84-67 73%     4 - 4 +5.8 +11.4 -4.3
  Thu, Dec 18 305 Fairfield W 72-66 73%    
  Fri, Jan 2 213 @LIU Brooklyn L 69-73 34%    
  Sun, Jan 4 337 New Haven W 69-60 80%    
  Thu, Jan 8 340 Stonehill W 71-61 81%    
  Sat, Jan 10 307 @Le Moyne W 74-73 52%    
  Sat, Jan 17 363 @St. Francis (PA) W 73-65 75%    
  Mon, Jan 19 328 @Mercyhurst W 66-64 59%    
  Fri, Jan 23 362 Fairleigh Dickinson W 78-65 89%    
  Sun, Jan 25 340 @Stonehill W 68-64 63%    
  Thu, Jan 29 301 @Wagner W 69-68 51%    
  Sat, Jan 31 213 LIU Brooklyn W 72-70 56%    
  Thu, Feb 5 350 Chicago St. W 76-65 83%    
  Sat, Feb 7 301 Wagner W 71-65 71%    
  Thu, Feb 12 337 @New Haven W 66-63 61%    
  Sat, Feb 14 362 @Fairleigh Dickinson W 75-68 74%    
  Thu, Feb 19 307 Le Moyne W 77-70 72%    
  Sat, Feb 21 350 @Chicago St. W 73-68 66%    
  Thu, Feb 26 328 Mercyhurst W 69-61 77%    
  Sat, Feb 28 363 St. Francis (PA) W 76-62 89%    
Projected Record 17 - 10 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.4 5.6 10.5 12.8 10.5 6.8 47.7 1st
2nd 0.1 1.3 5.5 6.9 4.2 1.3 0.2 0.0 19.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.9 3.9 4.7 1.6 0.2 0.0 11.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 2.8 3.2 0.7 0.1 7.3 4th
5th 0.2 1.4 2.2 0.5 0.0 4.3 5th
6th 0.1 0.8 1.5 0.4 0.0 2.8 6th
7th 0.1 0.4 0.9 0.4 0.0 1.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.2 3.8 6.5 8.9 12.3 14.2 14.9 14.2 10.7 6.9 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 99.7% 6.8    6.8 0.1
15-1 97.8% 10.5    9.9 0.6
14-2 90.5% 12.8    10.6 2.1 0.0
13-3 70.8% 10.5    6.4 3.7 0.5 0.0
12-4 39.5% 5.6    2.0 2.6 0.9 0.1 0.0
11-5 11.2% 1.4    0.2 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0
10-6 0.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 47.7% 47.7 35.9 9.5 1.9 0.3 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 6.9% 55.1% 55.1% 14.9 0.1 0.9 2.1 0.6 3.1
15-1 10.7% 48.7% 48.7% 15.4 0.0 0.3 2.6 2.3 5.5
14-2 14.2% 42.3% 42.3% 15.7 0.1 1.5 4.4 8.2
13-3 14.9% 37.6% 37.6% 15.9 0.0 0.7 4.9 9.3
12-4 14.2% 30.7% 30.7% 16.0 0.2 4.1 9.8
11-5 12.3% 23.1% 23.1% 16.0 0.1 2.8 9.5
10-6 8.9% 18.9% 18.9% 16.0 0.0 1.7 7.2
9-7 6.5% 12.5% 12.5% 16.0 0.0 0.8 5.7
8-8 3.8% 10.0% 10.0% 16.0 0.4 3.4
7-9 2.2% 9.6% 9.6% 16.0 0.2 1.9
6-10 1.1% 6.5% 6.5% 16.0 0.1 1.1
5-11 0.5% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.0 0.4
4-12 0.2% 3.6% 3.6% 16.0 0.0 0.2
3-13 0.1% 0.1
2-14 0.0% 0.0
1-15 0.0% 0.0
0-16 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 31.0% 31.0% 0.0% 15.7 0.1 1.4 7.3 22.2 69.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 12.6 7.9 36.2 43.3 12.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%