Central Connecticut St.
Northeast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -7.7 #296
Expected Predictive Rating -5.9 #256
Pace 64.8 #288
Improvement -4.1 #331

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #228 C D+ C D+ F+
Defense #329 D+ C F+ B- D-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 31% #339 1.17 #160 -4.0 #312
2 Pt. Jumpers 32% #17 0.80 #107 +4.6 #15
Three Pointers 37% #265 1.03 #162 -1.7 #238
1st FG Attempt 1.00 #194 -1.1 #209
Freethrows 0.25 #318 76% #75 0.19 #288
Second Chance 27.4% #269 0.97 #282 0.27 #285
Turnovers 16.0% #149
Total Offense -2.3 #228

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #85 1.11 #113 -1.2 #220
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% #350 0.86 #323 +1.7 #63
Three Pointers 44% #98 1.14 #327 -4.0 #328
1st FG Attempt 1.09 #285 -3.5 #287
Freethrows 0.24 #33 80% #365 0.19 #71
Second Chance 32.2% #260 0.98 #91 0.32 #170
Turnovers 12.7% #347
Total Defense -5.4 #329

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -3.9% #352 2.2% #350
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 2.6% #133 4.4% #263
Possession Length 18.6 #299 17.6 #237
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 #319 0.12 #37
Improvement +2.0 #79 -6.1 #364

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 20.0% 22.7% 17.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.8 16.0
.500 or above 73.4% 85.5% 62.1%
.500 or above in Conference 93.7% 98.2% 89.5%
Conference Champion 7.8% 12.5% 3.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.0% 0.6%
First Four12.9% 13.1% 12.7%
First Round13.0% 15.6% 10.6%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Wagner (Away) - 48.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 01 - 1
Quad 31 - 32 - 4
Quad 413 - 915 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Thu, Nov 6 178 @Quinnipiac L 49 - 71 19% -12  0 - 1 -20 -21 F D A- +0 C A+ F
 Tue, Nov 11 130 @Boston College W 60 - 59 13% -4  1 - 1 +6 -2 B+ F F+ +8 A B- C
 Sun, Nov 16 170 @Massachusetts L 77 - 84 18% -12  1 - 2 -5 -2 C- D+ C- -2 B- F B+
 Fri, Nov 21 120 @Rutgers W 67 - 54 11% +5  2 - 2 +19 +5 C F A+ +15 A- A+ C+
 Mon, Nov 24 277 Sacred Heart W 108 - 106 OT 58% +2  3 - 2 -8 +13 B A+ C+ -21 F D F
 Wed, Dec 3 57 @Seton Hall L 61 - 77 4% -9  3 - 3 -3 +6 A+ F D+ -11 F A+ D
 Sun, Dec 7 259 @Northeastern L 56 - 73 30% -14  3 - 4 -19 -19 F F A -1 C C D+
 Sat, Dec 13 362 @Binghamton W 84 - 67 71% +8  4 - 4 +4 +11 A+ F+ F -6 D D+ F+
 Thu, Dec 18 271 Fairfield L 70 - 84 56% -14  4 - 5 -23 -5 F B+ B -19 F C- D+
 Fri, Jan 2 224 @LIU Brooklyn L 78 - 84 25% -1  4 - 6 0 - 1 -7 +21 A+ C- A -29 F F F
 Sun, Jan 4 333 New Haven W 72 - 61 72% +10  5 - 6 1 - 1 -3 +9 B+ C B- -10 C+ F D+
 Thu, Jan 8 334 Stonehill W 76 - 69 73% +6  6 - 6 2 - 1 -7 +5 B A F -12 F B D+
 Sat, Jan 10 274 @Le Moyne W 69 - 59 34% +6  7 - 6 3 - 1 +7 -7 F D- D +14 A+ B- C-
 Sat, Jan 17 355 @St. Francis (PA) W 98 - 90 62% +7  8 - 6 4 - 1 -3 +23 A F A+ -26 F+ F F
 Mon, Jan 19 306 @Mercyhurst L 61 - 79 42% -14  8 - 7 4 - 2 -23 -4 F B- B- -22 F C- D-
 Fri, Jan 23 346 Fairleigh Dickinson L 66 - 76 76% -4  8 - 8 4 - 3 -25 -2 F+ A- D -25 F B- F
 Mon, Jan 26 334 @Stonehill L 59 - 61 52% +3  8 - 9 4 - 4 -10 -9 B- F+ F -1 D+ B+ C
 Thu, Jan 29 324 @Wagner L 72 - 73 48%
 Sat, Jan 31 224 LIU Brooklyn L 73 - 74 47%
 Thu, Feb 5 358 Chicago St. W 77 - 67 83%
 Sat, Feb 7 324 Wagner W 75 - 70 69%
 Thu, Feb 12 333 @New Haven W 67 - 66 51%
 Sat, Feb 14 346 @Fairleigh Dickinson W 73 - 72 55%
 Thu, Feb 19 274 Le Moyne W 76 - 74 56%
 Sat, Feb 21 358 @Chicago St. W 74 - 70 65%
 Thu, Feb 26 306 Mercyhurst W 69 - 65 64%
 Sat, Feb 28 355 St. Francis (PA) W 78 - 69 80%
Totals 14 - 13 10 - 8 -8 -2 C D+ C -5 D+ C F+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.4 3.6 1.4 7.8 1st
2nd 0.0 1.0 6.2 8.3 2.7 0.1 18.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.7 10.0 12.5 3.8 0.3 28.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 7.0 9.4 2.1 0.1 19.2 4th
5th 0.2 3.6 6.9 1.7 0.0 12.5 5th
6th 0.0 1.2 4.4 1.5 0.0 7.1 6th
7th 0.2 2.0 1.5 0.1 3.8 7th
8th 0.1 0.8 1.0 0.1 2.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 10th
Total 0.0 0.3 1.5 4.4 10.3 17.2 22.2 21.3 14.6 6.6 1.5 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2 92.6% 1.4    0.9 0.5 0.0
13-3 54.6% 3.6    1.3 1.9 0.4 0.0
12-4 16.6% 2.4    0.3 1.1 0.8 0.2 0.0
11-5 1.7% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
10-6 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 7.8% 7.8 2.5 3.5 1.5 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2 1.5% 45.6% 45.6% 14.8 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.0 0.8
13-3 6.6% 35.1% 35.1% 15.8 0.0 0.6 1.8 4.3
12-4 14.6% 28.2% 28.2% 15.9 0.3 3.8 10.5
11-5 21.3% 23.0% 23.0% 16.0 0.1 4.8 16.4
10-6 22.2% 18.0% 18.0% 16.0 0.1 3.9 18.2
9-7 17.2% 13.8% 13.8% 16.0 0.0 2.3 14.8
8-8 10.3% 10.7% 10.7% 16.0 1.1 9.2
7-9 4.4% 8.2% 8.2% 16.0 0.4 4.1
6-10 1.5% 7.2% 7.2% 16.0 0.1 1.4
5-11 0.3% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.0 0.3
4-12 0.0% 0.0
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 20.0% 20.0% 0.0% 15.9 80.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.7% 100.0% 14.8 1.5 24.4 68.9 5.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.5%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3%