Fairleigh Dickinson
Northeast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -12.0 #346
Expected Predictive Rating -13.6 #349
Pace 66.1 #258
Improvement +4.2 #26

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #317 D D+ C- C- C
Defense #344 F B C- D+ C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% #321 1.11 #234 -4.1 #313
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #245 0.79 #125 -1.0 #232
Three Pointers 50% #25 0.86 #343 +0.6 #152
1st FG Attempt 0.93 #310 -4.5 #311
Freethrows 0.29 #228 69% #292 0.20 #251
Second Chance 29.8% #211 0.88 #352 0.26 #295
Turnovers 17.2% #231
Total Offense -5.7 #317

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #191 1.32 #341 -3.1 #283
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #282 0.80 #261 +0.8 #130
Three Pointers 44% #85 1.23 #364 -6.3 #357
1st FG Attempt 1.19 #361 -8.6 #361
Freethrows 0.34 #293 72% #152 0.24 #283
Second Chance 27.5% #77 0.95 #62 0.26 #49
Turnovers 15.5% #235
Total Defense -6.3 #344

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.0% #194 0.9% #249
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -8.8% #318 15.7% #361
Possession Length 18.9 #323 16.5 #45
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.08 #363 0.19 #244
Improvement +0.1 #179 +4.1 #13

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.8% 6.8% 5.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 67.2% 84.6% 57.6%
Conference Champion 0.9% 1.9% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 1.5% 0.4% 2.0%
First Four5.7% 6.8% 5.2%
First Round2.6% 3.0% 2.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Stonehill (Away) - 35.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 30 - 30 - 8
Quad 49 - 139 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 7 @Iowa St. L 50 - 88 0% -24  0 - 1 -15 -11 F C D+ -3 F A+ D+
 Sat, Nov 8 228 @St. Peter's L 83 - 93 15% -7  0 - 2 -11 +8 A+ B+ F -18 F B- D
 Wed, Nov 12 32 @Texas L 58 - 93 1% -17  0 - 3 -18 -12 F+ F B+ -4 D- A+ C-
 Sat, Nov 15 338 @NJIT L 81 - 93 36% -11  0 - 4 -20 -1 F+ D C -18 F C A+
 Mon, Nov 24 311 East Texas A&M L 65 - 70 50% +5  0 - 5 -17 -8 C+ C- F -9 F B C+
 Wed, Nov 26 339 Army L 73 - 81 59% -2  0 - 6 -22 -6 F B+ A -17 D D+ F
 Tue, Dec 2 67 @Providence L 64 - 94 3% -23  0 - 7 -19 -4 D+ C F -17 F B- C+
 Wed, Dec 10 198 @Fordham L 54 - 75 12% -11  0 - 8 -20 -13 C F F+ -9 F C B-
 Mon, Dec 22 130 @Boston College L 61 - 72 7% +2  0 - 9 -6 +4 C D+ A+ -12 F+ D- F+
 Mon, Dec 29 76 @Minnesota L 43 - 60 3% -7  0 - 10 -6 -17 F F+ F +8 A B A-
 Fri, Jan 2 306 @Mercyhurst W 74 - 67 27% -0  1 - 10 1 - 0 +2 +8 A+ F+ F -6 C C B
 Sun, Jan 4 355 @St. Francis (PA) L 82 - 85 45% +0  1 - 11 1 - 1 -14 +2 D- C- A+ -16 D- F D-
 Thu, Jan 8 358 Chicago St. W 70 - 63 71% +9  2 - 11 2 - 1 -11 -7 D- F+ D+ -3 F A+ B+
 Sat, Jan 10 333 @New Haven L 55 - 65 35% -10  2 - 12 2 - 2 -18 -12 F F B- -7 F B D-
 Sat, Jan 17 224 LIU Brooklyn L 59 - 66 31% -2  2 - 13 2 - 3 -14 -12 F F C- -3 D- A- C+
 Mon, Jan 19 324 Wagner W 68 - 61 54% +4  3 - 13 3 - 3 -6 +1 C- B+ F -5 B- A- F
 Fri, Jan 23 296 @Central Connecticut St. W 76 - 66 24% +4  4 - 13 4 - 3 +5 +14 A- D- A -7 C F B-
 Mon, Jan 26 274 Le Moyne L 74 - 87 40% -13  4 - 14 4 - 4 -22 -0 F A- A+ -23 F A+ C-
 Thu, Jan 29 334 @Stonehill L 65 - 69 35%
 Sat, Jan 31 324 @Wagner L 69 - 74 32%
 Thu, Feb 5 334 Stonehill W 68 - 66 58%
 Sat, Feb 7 306 Mercyhurst L 66 - 67 48%
 Thu, Feb 12 355 St. Francis (PA) W 76 - 71 67%
 Sat, Feb 14 296 Central Connecticut St. L 72 - 73 45%
 Thu, Feb 19 358 @Chicago St. L 71 - 72 49%
 Sat, Feb 21 333 New Haven W 67 - 65 57%
 Thu, Feb 26 274 @Le Moyne L 70 - 79 21%
 Sat, Feb 28 224 @LIU Brooklyn L 68 - 79 15%
Totals 8 - 20 8 - 10 -12 -6 D D+ C- -6 F B C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 1.9 1.1 0.2 0.0 3.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.4 5.1 3.8 0.5 0.0 10.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 6.8 6.5 0.9 0.0 14.9 4th
5th 0.3 6.4 9.5 1.6 0.0 17.8 5th
6th 0.2 4.4 11.1 3.1 0.0 18.7 6th
7th 0.1 2.4 9.1 4.5 0.2 16.2 7th
8th 0.1 1.2 5.4 4.5 0.3 11.5 8th
9th 0.4 2.1 2.0 0.3 4.8 9th
10th 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 10th
Total 0.6 3.5 10.1 18.6 23.0 20.9 13.9 6.8 2.0 0.5 0.0 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2 87.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-3 61.5% 0.3    0.1 0.2 0.0
12-4 20.5% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0
11-5 2.1% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-6 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 0.9% 0.9 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0
13-3 0.5% 15.4% 15.4% 16.0 0.1 0.4
12-4 2.0% 18.1% 18.1% 16.0 0.4 1.7
11-5 6.8% 12.1% 12.1% 16.0 0.8 6.0
10-6 13.9% 8.5% 8.5% 16.0 1.2 12.7
9-7 20.9% 6.3% 6.3% 16.0 1.3 19.6
8-8 23.0% 4.2% 4.2% 16.0 1.0 22.0
7-9 18.6% 3.6% 3.6% 16.0 0.7 17.9
6-10 10.1% 2.8% 2.8% 16.0 0.3 9.8
5-11 3.5% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.1 3.4
4-12 0.6% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.0 0.6
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 5.8% 5.8% 0.0% 16.0 94.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.5%