Stonehill
Northeast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -11.1 #334
Expected Predictive Rating -12.9 #341
Pace 65.6 #270
Improvement +1.4 #116

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #361 D D F F+ C+
Defense #192 C C+ F C D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #157 1.05 #302 -1.7 #244
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #212 0.66 #315 -1.6 #265
Three Pointers 42% #153 0.90 #325 -2.0 #251
1st FG Attempt 0.91 #325 -5.3 #326
Freethrows 0.23 #345 68% #302 0.16 #357
Second Chance 27.3% #275 0.90 #337 0.25 #326
Turnovers 21.1% #361
Total Offense -10.4 #361

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% #28 1.13 #141 -3.0 #281
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #194 0.64 #27 +1.3 #91
Three Pointers 35% #331 1.12 #305 +1.2 #134
1st FG Attempt 1.03 #194 -0.5 #194
Freethrows 0.31 #212 68% #31 0.21 #157
Second Chance 25.5% #30 1.13 #293 0.29 #101
Turnovers 11.3% #364
Total Defense -0.7 #192

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.6% #148 1.1% #267
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -11.0% #340 -0.2% #181
Possession Length 18.8 #317 16.5 #50
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 #263 0.18 #214
Improvement -1.1 #239 +2.5 #51

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.9% 8.8% 6.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.6% 0.9% 0.1%
.500 or above in Conference 74.0% 83.8% 56.4%
Conference Champion 1.5% 2.1% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 1.0% 0.4% 2.1%
First Four7.9% 8.7% 6.4%
First Round3.4% 3.8% 2.6%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Fairleigh Dickinson (Home) - 64.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 30 - 20 - 6
Quad 410 - 1410 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 92 @DePaul L 64 - 72 4% -8  0 - 1 +1 -7 D+ C D- +9 A+ B+ F
 Tue, Nov 11 111 @Rhode Island L 57 - 80 6% -12  0 - 2 -16 -12 F C- F -4 C B- F+
 Fri, Nov 14 271 @Fairfield L 71 - 73 OT 23% -2  0 - 3 -5 -12 D- F C+ +7 A B+ F
 Sat, Nov 15 323 Loyola Maryland L 63 - 74 46% -3  0 - 4 -21 -12 C- F F -10 F+ C- F
 Mon, Nov 17 7 @Iowa St. L 57 - 96 0% -18  0 - 5 -16 -4 B+ F F -11 D- A+ F+
 Fri, Nov 21 316 Lafayette W 74 - 70 55% +4  1 - 5 -8 -5 B- F F -3 B- B- C+
 Wed, Nov 26 317 Umass Lowell L 64 - 75 55% -5  1 - 6 -23 -13 F D- C -10 C C F
 Sun, Nov 30 178 @Quinnipiac L 62 - 76 12% -8  1 - 7 -12 -8 F A- F -4 F A+ D+
 Tue, Dec 2 344 @Bryant L 65 - 77 42% -4  1 - 8 -21 -1 C- F+ D+ -21 F F F
 Wed, Dec 17 319 @New Hampshire L 58 - 59 33% -1  1 - 9 -8 -15 D- F+ F +7 A B F
 Mon, Dec 22 77 @Syracuse L 48 - 77 3% -12  1 - 10 -18 -13 F C+ F -9 D+ C+ F
 Fri, Jan 2 333 New Haven L 55 - 70 61% -5  1 - 11 0 - 1 -29 -19 F C- D+ -11 F+ C F
 Sun, Jan 4 324 @Wagner W 69 - 60 35% +2  2 - 11 1 - 1 +2 +1 C- D- C +2 B C D+
 Thu, Jan 8 296 @Central Connecticut St. L 69 - 76 27% -6  2 - 12 1 - 2 -12 -4 C F F -8 D- F B+
 Sat, Jan 10 358 Chicago St. W 85 - 82 OT 74% +3  3 - 12 2 - 2 -15 -0 C B F+ -15 D- F F
 Sat, Jan 17 306 @Mercyhurst W 62 - 57 OT 30% -2  4 - 12 3 - 2 -0 -11 D- D D- +10 B+ A+ D-
 Mon, Jan 19 355 @St. Francis (PA) L 61 - 63 49% +3  4 - 13 3 - 3 -13 -14 D- F F +1 A- C- F
 Fri, Jan 23 224 LIU Brooklyn L 63 - 66 34% +3  4 - 14 3 - 4 -10 -8 C- C- F -2 B+ A+ F
 Mon, Jan 26 296 Central Connecticut St. W 61 - 59 48% -3  5 - 14 4 - 4 -9 -15 D F F +6 D A- A-
 Thu, Jan 29 346 Fairleigh Dickinson W 69 - 65 65%
 Sat, Jan 31 274 @Le Moyne L 65 - 73 24%
 Thu, Feb 5 346 @Fairleigh Dickinson L 66 - 68 42%
 Sat, Feb 7 224 @LIU Brooklyn L 63 - 73 17%
 Thu, Feb 12 358 @Chicago St. W 67 - 66 52%
 Sat, Feb 14 324 Wagner W 68 - 66 57%
 Thu, Feb 19 333 @New Haven L 60 - 63 39%
 Sat, Feb 21 274 Le Moyne L 68 - 70 44%
 Thu, Feb 26 355 St. Francis (PA) W 71 - 65 71%
 Sat, Feb 28 306 Mercyhurst W 62 - 61 51%
Totals 10 - 19 9 - 9 -11 -10 D D F -1 C C+ F




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.2 0.7 0.5 0.1 1.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 3.0 2.0 0.3 6.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.4 5.5 4.8 0.6 0.0 12.3 3rd
4th 0.8 7.5 7.7 1.4 0.0 17.5 4th
5th 0.4 6.4 10.1 2.2 0.1 19.2 5th
6th 0.1 3.6 10.3 3.4 0.1 17.5 6th
7th 0.0 1.8 7.7 3.9 0.1 13.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 4.4 3.4 0.2 8.8 8th
9th 0.3 1.5 1.7 0.2 0.0 3.6 9th
10th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 10th
Total 0.4 2.3 8.0 15.3 21.6 22.5 16.2 9.5 3.4 0.8 0.1 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
13-3 60.0% 0.5    0.2 0.2 0.1
12-4 20.7% 0.7    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
11-5 2.4% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 1.5% 1.5 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2 0.1% 0.0 0.1
13-3 0.8% 22.6% 22.6% 16.0 0.2 0.6
12-4 3.4% 16.5% 16.5% 16.0 0.6 2.8
11-5 9.5% 13.5% 13.5% 16.0 1.3 8.2
10-6 16.2% 10.4% 10.4% 16.0 1.7 14.5
9-7 22.5% 8.5% 8.5% 16.0 1.9 20.6
8-8 21.6% 5.5% 5.5% 16.0 1.2 20.5
7-9 15.3% 4.7% 4.7% 16.0 0.7 14.6
6-10 8.0% 3.8% 3.8% 16.0 0.3 7.7
5-11 2.3% 3.4% 3.4% 16.0 0.1 2.2
4-12 0.4% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 0.4
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 7.9% 7.9% 0.0% 16.0 92.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.3%