New Haven
Northeast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-11.5#345
Expected Predictive Rating-4.9#242
Pace65.6#283
Improvement+0.5#133

Offense
Total Offense-8.9#361
First Shot-4.0#292
After Offensive Rebound-4.9#361
Layup/Dunks-0.5#205
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#58
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.3#288
Freethrows-2.6#320
Improvement+0.2#166

Defense
Total Defense-2.6#256
First Shot-2.7#270
After Offensive Rebounds+0.1#186
Layups/Dunks-1.3#233
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#180
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.8#310
Freethrows+2.0#75
Improvement+0.3#154
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 17.1% 40.4% 15.6%
.500 or above in Conference 53.1% 67.1% 52.1%
Conference Champion 6.1% 15.0% 5.5%
Last Place in Conference 12.8% 5.3% 13.2%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Boston College (Away) - 6.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 10 - 4
Quad 30 - 40 - 8
Quad 410 - 1010 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 8 @Connecticut L 55-79 1%     0 - 1 -1.7 -5.5 +2.5
  Fri, Nov 7 134 Columbia L 53-71 17%     0 - 2 -19.2 -17.6 -2.7
  Sat, Nov 8 100 Penn St. L 43-87 11%     0 - 3 -42.2 -26.4 -21.4
  Mon, Nov 10 309 @Umass Lowell W 73-67 27%     1 - 3 +1.0 -1.7 +2.8
  Sat, Nov 15 357 Delaware St. W 65-52 68%     2 - 3 -3.4 -10.0 +7.4
  Tue, Nov 18 76 @Seton Hall L 45-68 3%     2 - 4 -12.4 -14.7 -0.8
  Sat, Dec 6 127 @Boston College L 56-73 6%    
  Wed, Dec 10 349 @NJIT L 66-69 41%    
  Mon, Dec 22 212 @Fordham L 58-69 15%    
  Mon, Dec 29 19 @Vanderbilt L 58-88 0.3%   
  Fri, Jan 2 334 @Stonehill L 63-67 35%    
  Sun, Jan 4 244 @Central Connecticut St. L 59-69 18%    
  Thu, Jan 8 336 @Le Moyne L 69-73 37%    
  Sat, Jan 10 362 Fairleigh Dickinson W 74-68 71%    
  Sat, Jan 17 292 Wagner L 66-67 46%    
  Mon, Jan 19 340 @Chicago St. L 68-71 38%    
  Fri, Jan 23 320 Mercyhurst L 63-64 50%    
  Sun, Jan 25 359 St. Francis (PA) W 71-66 69%    
  Thu, Jan 29 320 @Mercyhurst L 61-67 30%    
  Sat, Jan 31 359 @St. Francis (PA) L 68-69 48%    
  Thu, Feb 5 232 @LIU Brooklyn L 64-74 18%    
  Sat, Feb 7 340 Chicago St. W 71-68 59%    
  Thu, Feb 12 244 Central Connecticut St. L 62-66 38%    
  Sat, Feb 14 232 LIU Brooklyn L 67-71 36%    
  Thu, Feb 19 334 Stonehill W 66-64 56%    
  Sat, Feb 21 362 @Fairleigh Dickinson L 70-71 49%    
  Thu, Feb 26 292 @Wagner L 63-70 27%    
  Sat, Feb 28 336 Le Moyne W 72-70 57%    
Projected Record 10 - 18 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.6 1.3 1.8 1.2 0.7 0.3 6.0 1st
2nd 0.1 1.2 3.2 2.7 1.2 0.3 0.1 8.7 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.7 4.2 3.1 0.9 0.1 10.1 3rd
4th 0.1 1.7 5.1 3.7 0.6 0.0 11.2 4th
5th 0.0 1.5 5.6 4.1 0.7 0.0 11.9 5th
6th 0.0 1.1 5.2 4.7 0.8 0.0 11.9 6th
7th 0.1 1.1 4.7 5.0 1.1 0.0 12.0 7th
8th 0.1 1.0 4.3 4.5 1.2 0.0 11.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.2 3.6 1.0 0.0 9.3 9th
10th 0.1 0.7 1.6 2.6 1.9 0.7 0.0 7.7 10th
Total 0.1 0.7 1.7 4.0 6.2 9.7 11.4 13.1 13.2 11.8 9.9 7.5 5.0 3.0 1.5 0.8 0.3 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3 0.0 0.0
15-1 92.8% 0.7    0.7 0.0
14-2 80.1% 1.2    0.9 0.3 0.0
13-3 58.2% 1.8    1.1 0.6 0.1
12-4 25.9% 1.3    0.4 0.6 0.3 0.0
11-5 7.7% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
10-6 0.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 6.0% 6.0 3.4 1.7 0.7 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.3% 0.3
15-1 0.8% 0.8
14-2 1.5% 1.5
13-3 3.0% 3.0
12-4 5.0% 5.0
11-5 7.5% 7.5
10-6 9.9% 9.9
9-7 11.8% 11.8
8-8 13.2% 13.2
7-9 13.1% 13.1
6-10 11.4% 11.4
5-11 9.7% 9.7
4-12 6.2% 6.2
3-13 4.0% 4.0
2-14 1.7% 1.7
1-15 0.7% 0.7
0-16 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%