St. Francis (PA)
Northeast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-15.1#363
Expected Predictive Rating-16.5#353
Pace73.6#70
Improvement-1.0#247

Offense
Total Offense-9.9#361
First Shot-6.7#346
After Offensive Rebound-3.1#345
Layup/Dunks-1.1#229
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#120
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#253
Freethrows-4.3#354
Improvement-0.6#233

Defense
Total Defense-5.3#337
First Shot-6.5#354
After Offensive Rebounds+1.2#105
Layups/Dunks-5.1#332
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#53
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.3#297
Freethrows+0.1#177
Improvement-0.3#209
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.4% 2.7% 1.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.2% 1.7% 0.1%
.500 or above in Conference 13.9% 24.8% 13.4%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.6% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 43.0% 31.0% 43.5%
First Four1.4% 2.7% 1.4%
First Round0.5% 0.9% 0.5%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Temple (Away) - 4.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 30 - 30 - 8
Quad 45 - 145 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 44 @Oklahoma L 66-102 1%     0 - 1 -21.7 -6.3 -13.4
  Thu, Nov 6 45 @TCU L 63-104 1%     0 - 2 -27.0 -6.7 -16.3
  Tue, Nov 11 296 Mount St. Mary's L 66-74 32%     0 - 3 -18.4 -10.4 -8.1
  Tue, Nov 18 309 @Lehigh L 62-79 18%     0 - 4 -22.3 -15.8 -5.7
  Mon, Nov 24 85 Belmont L 57-94 3%     0 - 5 -30.4 -15.0 -14.4
  Wed, Nov 26 147 Troy L 64-74 8%     0 - 6 -9.3 -10.4 +1.6
  Mon, Dec 1 77 @Xavier L 74-96 2%     0 - 7 -11.4 -0.4 -8.9
  Sun, Dec 7 267 @Radford L 56-89 13%     0 - 8 -35.7 -18.0 -18.0
  Sun, Dec 14 163 @Temple L 67-85 4%    
  Wed, Dec 17 13 @Florida L 58-94 0.0%   
  Sat, Dec 20 182 Robert Morris L 66-77 16%    
  Fri, Jan 2 307 Le Moyne L 76-80 36%    
  Sun, Jan 4 362 Fairleigh Dickinson W 77-74 60%    
  Thu, Jan 8 301 @Wagner L 67-77 17%    
  Sat, Jan 17 241 Central Connecticut St. L 65-73 25%    
  Mon, Jan 19 340 Stonehill L 69-70 47%    
  Fri, Jan 23 350 Chicago St. W 75-74 51%    
  Sun, Jan 25 337 @New Haven L 64-71 25%    
  Thu, Jan 29 350 @Chicago St. L 72-78 31%    
  Sat, Jan 31 337 New Haven L 67-68 45%    
  Thu, Feb 5 328 @Mercyhurst L 65-73 23%    
  Thu, Feb 12 362 @Fairleigh Dickinson L 74-77 39%    
  Thu, Feb 19 213 LIU Brooklyn L 71-80 21%    
  Sat, Feb 21 301 Wagner L 70-74 36%    
  Thu, Feb 26 340 @Stonehill L 66-73 27%    
  Sat, Feb 28 241 @Central Connecticut St. L 62-76 11%    
Projected Record 5 - 21 5 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.9 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.6 0.9 0.3 0.0 2.0 3rd
4th 0.1 0.9 1.7 0.6 0.0 3.2 4th
5th 0.0 1.1 3.0 1.3 0.2 5.5 5th
6th 0.0 1.2 3.9 2.4 0.2 0.0 7.8 6th
7th 0.1 1.4 5.2 4.0 0.6 11.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 2.1 6.8 6.0 1.3 0.0 16.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.9 3.8 8.5 7.0 1.7 0.1 22.0 9th
10th 1.0 4.5 8.2 9.5 5.7 1.5 0.1 30.6 10th
Total 1.0 4.5 9.1 13.6 16.4 16.8 14.3 10.4 6.9 3.8 2.0 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
13-3 56.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-4 36.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-5 9.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-6 1.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2 0.0% 0.0
13-3 0.1% 0.0 0.0
12-4 0.3% 14.3% 14.3% 16.0 0.0 0.2
11-5 0.9% 9.3% 9.3% 16.0 0.1 0.8
10-6 2.0% 7.9% 7.9% 16.0 0.2 1.9
9-7 3.8% 4.7% 4.7% 16.0 0.2 3.6
8-8 6.9% 3.6% 3.6% 16.0 0.3 6.6
7-9 10.4% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.2 10.2
6-10 14.3% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.2 14.1
5-11 16.8% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.2 16.7
4-12 16.4% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 16.3
3-13 13.6% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 13.5
2-14 9.1% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 9.1
1-15 4.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 4.5
0-16 1.0% 1.0
Total 100% 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% 16.0 1.4 98.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.8%