St. Francis (PA)
Northeast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -13.8 #355
Expected Predictive Rating -12.7 #340
Pace 71.6 #103
Improvement +5.0 #17

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #345 D+ D D+ F+ D
Defense #339 F+ D C+ C- D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% #326 1.10 #256 -4.5 #328
2 Pt. Jumpers 26% #73 0.66 #318 +0.9 #131
Three Pointers 41% #178 1.00 #212 -0.2 #191
1st FG Attempt 0.94 #293 -3.9 #291
Freethrows 0.22 #355 71% #225 0.16 #353
Second Chance 25.5% #313 0.97 #283 0.25 #324
Turnovers 18.0% #283
Total Offense -7.8 #345

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #138 1.34 #353 -4.7 #330
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #318 0.76 #190 +1.9 #50
Three Pointers 44% #89 1.17 #346 -5.0 #344
1st FG Attempt 1.18 #360 -7.8 #360
Freethrows 0.32 #232 72% #188 0.23 #230
Second Chance 33.4% #296 1.15 #307 0.38 #323
Turnovers 17.7% #94
Total Defense -6.0 #339

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -2.3% #317 1.5% #309
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -5.4% #271 13.7% #360
Possession Length 17.8 #223 16.1 #24
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 #252 0.21 #308
Improvement +3.6 #22 +1.3 #100

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.5% 3.0% 2.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 32.1% 49.2% 19.5%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 6.0% 0.6% 10.0%
First Four2.5% 3.0% 2.1%
First Round0.9% 1.1% 0.7%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Chicago St. (Away) - 42.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 6
Quad 30 - 30 - 9
Quad 47 - 137 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 52 @Oklahoma L 66 - 102 1% -11  0 - 1 -23 -7 D D+ D- -14 F F C+
 Thu, Nov 6 44 @TCU L 63 - 104 1% -23  0 - 2 -26 -7 C F C -16 F F B+
 Tue, Nov 11 286 Mount St. Mary's L 66 - 74 37% -5  0 - 3 -18 -9 F F+ D -10 F B- B
 Tue, Nov 18 303 @Lehigh L 62 - 79 21% -9  0 - 4 -22 -15 F C F -6 D- F B
 Mon, Nov 24 75 Belmont L 57 - 94 3% -16  0 - 5 -29 -15 F F+ F -13 F C- C
 Wed, Nov 26 115 Troy L 64 - 74 6% +2  0 - 6 -7 -11 C- F F +5 C C+ A+
 Mon, Dec 1 79 @Xavier L 74 - 96 2% -13  0 - 7 -12 -1 C- C D+ -8 C- D- D+
 Sun, Dec 7 255 @Radford L 56 - 89 14% -17  0 - 8 -35 -20 F F D- -16 F+ F C
 Sun, Dec 14 143 @Temple L 67 - 95 6% -17  0 - 9 -24 -4 D+ C D -20 F B+ C
 Wed, Dec 17 10 @Florida L 61 - 102 0% -25  0 - 10 -18 -3 C C- C- -14 F F A
 Sat, Dec 20 208 Robert Morris L 70 - 79 23% -2  0 - 11 -15 -0 C- B+ A+ -15 F A+ C
 Fri, Jan 2 274 Le Moyne L 58 - 84 33% -9  0 - 12 0 - 1 -35 -18 F F C -19 F F B
 Sun, Jan 4 346 Fairleigh Dickinson W 85 - 82 55% -0  1 - 12 1 - 1 -12 +2 D- A C+ -14 D- F+ F+
 Thu, Jan 8 324 @Wagner W 71 - 69 26% -1  2 - 12 2 - 1 -5 -1 C C- F+ -3 C+ D B-
 Sat, Jan 10 224 @LIU Brooklyn L 63 - 67 12% -1  2 - 13 2 - 2 -5 -11 C- F D- +6 A+ F A+
 Sat, Jan 17 296 Central Connecticut St. L 90 - 98 38% -7  2 - 14 2 - 3 -19 +13 C B A- -31 F B F
 Mon, Jan 19 334 Stonehill W 63 - 61 51% -3  3 - 14 3 - 3 -12 -10 F C B- -2 F+ C A+
 Fri, Jan 23 358 Chicago St. W 81 - 60 65% +13  4 - 14 4 - 3 +3 +4 A+ F C- +1 C+ C B
 Thu, Jan 29 358 @Chicago St. L 73 - 75 42%
 Sat, Jan 31 333 New Haven W 68 - 67 51%
 Thu, Feb 5 306 @Mercyhurst L 64 - 72 22%
 Sat, Feb 7 274 @Le Moyne L 72 - 82 17%
 Thu, Feb 12 346 @Fairleigh Dickinson L 71 - 76 33%
 Thu, Feb 19 224 LIU Brooklyn L 71 - 78 26%
 Sat, Feb 21 324 Wagner L 73 - 74 47%
 Thu, Feb 26 334 @Stonehill L 65 - 71 29%
 Sat, Feb 28 296 @Central Connecticut St. L 69 - 78 20%
Totals 7 - 20 7 - 9 -14 -8 D+ D D+ -6 F+ D C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 1.3 0.5 0.0 2.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 3.0 1.6 0.1 5.2 4th
5th 0.3 4.3 4.2 0.4 0.0 9.3 5th
6th 0.2 4.4 8.5 1.4 0.0 14.5 6th
7th 0.1 4.2 11.9 4.3 0.1 20.6 7th
8th 0.3 4.4 13.2 7.8 0.5 26.2 8th
9th 3.2 8.8 6.5 0.7 0.0 19.3 9th
10th 1.0 0.7 0.1 1.8 10th
Total 4.5 14.1 24.2 25.2 18.1 9.3 3.5 1.0 0.1 0.0 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-4 37.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-5 2.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3 0.0% 0.0
12-4 0.1% 3.4% 3.4% 16.0 0.0 0.1
11-5 1.0% 10.1% 10.1% 16.0 0.1 0.9
10-6 3.5% 7.1% 7.1% 16.0 0.3 3.3
9-7 9.3% 4.4% 4.4% 16.0 0.4 8.9
8-8 18.1% 2.7% 2.7% 16.0 0.5 17.6
7-9 25.2% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.6 24.6
6-10 24.2% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.4 23.8
5-11 14.1% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.2 13.9
4-12 4.5% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.1 4.5
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 2.5% 2.5% 0.0% 16.0 97.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 3.4%