Chicago St.
Northeast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -14.8 #358
Expected Predictive Rating -20.9 #361
Pace 68.0 #209
Improvement -2.9 #308

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #347 D- D+ C D+ F
Defense #347 D- D- B D D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #309 0.94 #360 -6.5 #349
2 Pt. Jumpers 36% #5 0.75 #177 +5.8 #8
Three Pointers 30% #351 0.96 #255 -6.3 #343
1st FG Attempt 0.88 #350 -7.0 #350
Freethrows 0.25 #320 76% #64 0.19 #290
Second Chance 29.4% #222 0.88 #349 0.26 #302
Turnovers 16.3% #166
Total Offense -8.0 #347

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #277 1.38 #364 -2.0 #247
2 Pt. Jumpers 11% #364 0.75 #154 +3.6 #2
Three Pointers 54% #4 1.07 #260 -7.8 #361
1st FG Attempt 1.14 #345 -6.2 #345
Freethrows 0.34 #302 76% #337 0.26 #327
Second Chance 35.4% #331 1.14 #304 0.40 #342
Turnovers 18.7% #60
Total Defense -6.8 #347

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -4.6% #360 1.9% #338
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -9.5% #326 10.0% #336
Possession Length 19.9 #357 15.6 #11
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 #282 0.24 #347
Improvement -3.1 #338 +0.2 #184

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.9% 2.3% 1.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.5% 0.9% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 88.5% 83.8% 95.1%
First Four1.9% 2.3% 1.5%
First Round0.7% 0.8% 0.5%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: St. Francis (PA) (Home) - 57.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 5
Quad 20 - 30 - 7
Quad 30 - 40 - 11
Quad 45 - 165 - 27


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 92 @DePaul L 62 - 92 2% -13  0 - 1 -21 -7 F B- F+ -13 C F B+
 Thu, Nov 6 26 @Saint Louis L 86 - 108 1% -13  0 - 2 -4 +7 C B+ D+ -7 D- A+ B-
 Tue, Nov 11 58 @Butler L 66 - 98 1% -24  0 - 3 -19 -5 B- C- F -13 F+ F A-
 Sat, Nov 15 136 Illinois-Chicago L 63 - 67 11% +2  0 - 4 -6 -3 C F B -3 B+ F A+
 Tue, Nov 18 76 @Minnesota L 54 - 66 2% -6  0 - 5 -1 -7 D- C C- +4 B A B-
 Thu, Nov 20 23 @Iowa L 54 - 93 0% -18  0 - 6 -20 -1 F+ C- A -24 C F F+
 Tue, Nov 25 218 @Purdue Fort Wayne L 77 - 90 10% -4  0 - 7 -13 +6 D A+ F -19 F C+ A+
 Fri, Nov 28 222 @Youngstown St. L 64 - 87 10% -21  0 - 8 -24 -9 F D+ B- -15 F B- C-
 Sat, Dec 6 89 @Illinois St. L 53 - 95 2% -30  0 - 9 -33 -13 F B- F -22 F F B-
 Sun, Dec 14 281 @Loyola Chicago W 84 - 75 16% +6  1 - 9 +5 +6 C- D+ C- -1 A+ F A+
 Tue, Dec 16 147 @Bowling Green L 55 - 76 5% -11  1 - 10 -17 -13 F D B -5 D B- C
 Sat, Dec 20 31 @Indiana L 58 - 78 1% -18  1 - 11 -2 -7 C- F+ A- +4 D+ B- A+
 Fri, Jan 2 324 Wagner L 72 - 79 43% -4  1 - 12 0 - 1 -20 -2 F+ F+ A+ -19 D+ F F
 Sun, Jan 4 224 LIU Brooklyn L 55 - 74 22% -11  1 - 13 0 - 2 -26 -16 F F A- -11 F C- A+
 Thu, Jan 8 346 @Fairleigh Dickinson L 63 - 70 29% -9  1 - 14 0 - 3 -16 -11 D- F F -5 D+ C- B+
 Sat, Jan 10 334 @Stonehill L 82 - 85 OT 26% -3  1 - 15 0 - 4 -11 +6 C- B+ B+ -17 F F B-
 Sat, Jan 17 274 Le Moyne L 57 - 72 30% +0  1 - 16 0 - 5 -24 -20 D+ F F -4 C- F+ C+
 Mon, Jan 19 333 New Haven L 56 - 62 47% +3  1 - 17 0 - 6 -20 -10 D+ F C- -11 D- F A+
 Fri, Jan 23 355 @St. Francis (PA) L 60 - 81 35% -13  1 - 18 0 - 7 -32 -15 F F+ D+ -18 F B B-
 Sun, Jan 25 306 @Mercyhurst L 59 - 61 19% -3  1 - 19 0 - 8 -7 -2 F+ D A+ -6 F C A-
 Thu, Jan 29 355 St. Francis (PA) W 75 - 73 58%
 Sat, Jan 31 306 Mercyhurst L 65 - 68 37%
 Thu, Feb 5 296 @Central Connecticut St. L 67 - 77 17%
 Sat, Feb 7 333 @New Haven L 63 - 70 27%
 Thu, Feb 12 334 Stonehill L 66 - 67 48%
 Sat, Feb 14 274 @Le Moyne L 69 - 80 15%
 Thu, Feb 19 346 Fairleigh Dickinson W 72 - 71 51%
 Sat, Feb 21 296 Central Connecticut St. L 70 - 74 35%
 Thu, Feb 26 224 @LIU Brooklyn L 66 - 80 10%
 Sat, Feb 28 324 @Wagner L 68 - 76 24%
Totals 4 - 26 3 - 15 -15 -8 D- D+ C -7 D- D- B




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.1 4th
5th 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 0.2 0.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 0.7 0.1 0.0 1.5 7th
8th 0.1 1.6 2.7 0.4 0.0 4.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.7 5.5 6.5 1.7 0.1 15.7 9th
10th 2.7 10.4 20.7 23.2 15.3 4.5 0.2 77.1 10th
Total 2.7 10.4 21.0 24.9 20.9 12.6 5.4 1.6 0.5 0.1 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7 0.1% 0.0 0.1
8-8 0.5% 11.6% 11.6% 16.0 0.1 0.4
7-9 1.6% 7.1% 7.1% 16.0 0.1 1.5
6-10 5.4% 3.5% 3.5% 16.0 0.2 5.2
5-11 12.6% 3.1% 3.1% 16.0 0.4 12.2
4-12 20.9% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.5 20.4
3-13 24.9% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.5 24.5
2-14 21.0% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.2 20.8
1-15 10.4% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 10.3
0-16 2.7% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 2.7
Total 100% 1.9% 1.9% 0.0% 16.0 98.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 2.4%