Wagner
Northeast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -10.0 #324
Expected Predictive Rating -15.1 #353
Pace 64.0 #309
Improvement -4.4 #339

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #272 C- B- D+ D C
Defense #346 C- C- D- F D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #145 0.98 #349 -2.8 #280
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #132 0.82 #85 +1.6 #91
Three Pointers 38% #253 1.08 #85 -0.4 #198
1st FG Attempt 0.99 #230 -1.6 #230
Freethrows 0.26 #304 69% #286 0.18 #313
Second Chance 32.3% #134 1.12 #83 0.36 #89
Turnovers 18.3% #294
Total Offense -3.5 #272

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #67 1.09 #99 -1.2 #221
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #263 0.80 #252 +0.6 #147
Three Pointers 39% #236 1.15 #339 -1.7 #262
1st FG Attempt 1.06 #261 -2.3 #261
Freethrows 0.39 #358 75% #325 0.30 #361
Second Chance 32.2% #257 1.08 #236 0.35 #252
Turnovers 13.0% #343
Total Defense -6.5 #346

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.4% #214 1.3% #290
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -2.9% #224 3.1% #238
Possession Length 18.6 #298 15.1 #2
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 #322 0.23 #334
Improvement -0.3 #197 -4.1 #352

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.2% 11.1% 7.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 2.3% 4.0% 0.5%
.500 or above in Conference 21.3% 32.0% 9.7%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 15.4% 8.5% 22.7%
First Four8.8% 10.5% 7.0%
First Round4.7% 5.9% 3.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Central Connecticut St. (Home) - 51.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 30 - 10 - 5
Quad 49 - 129 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 51 @Virginia Commonwealth L 74 - 103 3% -12  0 - 1 -16 -0 D C D -13 C- F D+
 Fri, Nov 7 57 @Seton Hall L 61 - 68 3% -3  0 - 2 +6 +4 A+ A- F +1 B- C C+
 Tue, Nov 11 198 @Fordham L 61 - 63 16% +2  0 - 3 -1 +1 D- A D -2 B C- F
 Sun, Nov 16 263 @Maryland Baltimore Co. L 70 - 71 OT 24% +1  0 - 4 -3 -11 F C F +7 A+ F A+
 Sat, Nov 22 90 @Georgetown L 75 - 92 5% -11  0 - 5 -8 +2 C+ C- F -8 D C C-
 Wed, Nov 26 327 @Manhattan W 103 - 101 OT 40% -8  1 - 5 -5 +14 A+ B+ D+ -20 D F F+
 Tue, Dec 2 105 @Maryland L 63 - 89 6% -9  1 - 6 -19 -9 F+ F+ F -8 B- C F
 Wed, Dec 17 331 Maryland Eastern Shore W 78 - 64 64% +6  2 - 6 +0 +7 C- A A+ -5 F A+ C+
 Fri, Jan 2 358 @Chicago St. W 79 - 72 57% +4  3 - 6 1 - 0 -5 +8 D B A+ -12 C- B- F
 Sun, Jan 4 334 Stonehill L 60 - 69 65% -2  3 - 7 1 - 1 -23 -6 D- B F -18 D- C F
 Thu, Jan 8 355 St. Francis (PA) L 69 - 71 74% +1  3 - 8 1 - 2 -19 -6 F C+ D -13 D- D D+
 Sat, Jan 10 306 Mercyhurst L 69 - 70 56% +1  3 - 9 1 - 3 -12 -1 C C+ C- -11 F+ A+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 333 @New Haven L 74 - 80 42% -8  3 - 10 1 - 4 -14 +12 A A F -26 F A+ F
 Mon, Jan 19 346 @Fairleigh Dickinson L 61 - 68 46% -4  3 - 11 1 - 5 -16 -4 F C B- -13 D F A+
 Fri, Jan 23 274 @Le Moyne L 67 - 69 26% +2  3 - 12 1 - 6 -5 +2 A- D F -7 A+ F F
 Thu, Jan 29 296 Central Connecticut St. W 73 - 72 52%
 Sat, Jan 31 346 Fairleigh Dickinson W 74 - 69 68%
 Thu, Feb 5 274 Le Moyne L 74 - 75 48%
 Sat, Feb 7 296 @Central Connecticut St. L 70 - 75 31%
 Thu, Feb 12 224 LIU Brooklyn L 71 - 74 38%
 Sat, Feb 14 334 @Stonehill L 66 - 68 43%
 Thu, Feb 19 306 @Mercyhurst L 64 - 69 33%
 Sat, Feb 21 355 @St. Francis (PA) W 74 - 73 53%
 Thu, Feb 26 333 New Haven W 68 - 64 64%
 Sat, Feb 28 358 Chicago St. W 76 - 68 76%
Totals 8 - 17 6 - 11 -10 -3 C- B- D+ -7 C- C- D-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.1 0.1 0.2 2nd
3rd 0.5 1.0 0.1 1.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 2.4 0.7 0.0 3.6 4th
5th 0.2 3.3 2.6 0.1 6.2 5th
6th 0.2 3.3 6.0 0.8 10.2 6th
7th 0.1 3.2 8.9 2.8 0.0 15.0 7th
8th 0.3 4.2 11.4 6.0 0.3 22.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 2.9 8.8 13.7 6.8 0.8 33.3 9th
10th 0.2 1.1 2.7 2.7 0.9 0.1 7.7 10th
Total 0.2 1.4 5.6 11.7 18.9 21.7 19.2 12.8 6.3 1.9 0.2 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5 2.2% 0.0    0.0
10-6 0.3% 0.0    0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5 0.2% 37.0% 37.0% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.1
10-6 1.9% 26.4% 26.4% 16.0 0.0 0.5 1.4
9-7 6.3% 18.6% 18.6% 16.0 1.2 5.1
8-8 12.8% 12.5% 12.5% 16.0 1.6 11.2
7-9 19.2% 10.6% 10.6% 16.0 2.0 17.2
6-10 21.7% 8.8% 8.8% 16.0 1.9 19.8
5-11 18.9% 6.1% 6.1% 16.0 1.2 17.7
4-12 11.7% 4.5% 4.5% 16.0 0.5 11.2
3-13 5.6% 3.1% 3.1% 16.0 0.2 5.4
2-14 1.4% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.0 1.4
1-15 0.2% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.0 0.2
0-16
Total 100% 9.2% 9.2% 0.0% 16.0 90.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%