Massachusetts
Mid-American
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -0.9 #170
Expected Predictive Rating -1.6 #196
Pace 75.6 #34
Improvement -1.3 #249

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #193 C B D C C
Defense #160 C C+ C D D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #124 1.17 #163 +1.4 #125
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #112 0.75 #182 +1.1 #117
Three Pointers 36% #295 1.00 #211 -3.0 #289
1st FG Attempt 1.01 #189 -0.5 #189
Freethrows 0.33 #104 67% #324 0.22 #165
Second Chance 31.8% #150 1.21 #28 0.38 #63
Turnovers 18.5% #307
Total Offense -1.1 #193

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #118 1.26 #299 -3.4 #291
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #280 0.80 #251 +0.9 #128
Three Pointers 42% #152 0.91 #59 +1.8 #118
1st FG Attempt 1.03 #201 -0.7 #201
Freethrows 0.37 #337 71% #114 0.26 #328
Second Chance 26.8% #57 1.09 #257 0.29 #109
Turnovers 16.3% #194
Total Defense +0.3 #160

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.5% #218 1.2% #282
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -0.5% #181 0.2% #187
Possession Length 16.5 #93 16.8 #93
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 #139 0.23 #338
Improvement +2.7 #54 -4.0 #350

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.6% 2.8% 1.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.0 13.9 14.4
.500 or above 92.0% 95.6% 81.8%
.500 or above in Conference 46.5% 55.7% 20.3%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.5% 0.1% 1.5%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round2.6% 2.8% 1.8%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Eastern Michigan (Home) - 73.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 3
Quad 35 - 66 - 9
Quad 411 - 517 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 163 Marshall L 72 - 78 59% -5  0 - 1 -9 -13 C F F +5 F A- A+
 Sat, Nov 8 309 Albany W 83 - 62 84% +7  1 - 1 +9 -0 F A+ F+ +9 A- C A+
 Thu, Nov 13 274 Le Moyne W 94 - 80 79% +11  2 - 1 +5 +8 A A- F+ -4 C C+ F
 Sun, Nov 16 296 Central Connecticut St. W 84 - 77 82% +12  3 - 1 -4 -4 D- A+ F -0 C C+ C+
 Fri, Nov 21 162 College of Charleston L 65 - 69 47% +1  3 - 2 -4 -6 B- B- F +2 B+ F D-
 Sat, Nov 22 243 Green Bay L 75 - 79 64% -4  3 - 3 -9 -1 F A+ D -8 C- B- D-
 Mon, Nov 24 194 Oregon St. W 73 - 65 55% +2  4 - 3 +6 +2 D A+ D+ +4 D- A+ A+
 Wed, Dec 3 179 Harvard W 78 - 71 63% +10  5 - 3 +3 -0 A- F F +3 B B- C-
 Sat, Dec 6 317 Umass Lowell W 80 - 60 86% +8  6 - 3 +8 -5 D+ D+ F+ +11 B- B+ A+
 Wed, Dec 10 130 Boston College W 76 - 74 40% +3  7 - 3 +4 +7 C- A+ F -4 A- C+ D+
 Sat, Dec 13 106 Florida St. W 103 - 95 31% +5  8 - 3 +12 +17 A- A+ B+ -6 F+ A+ C
 Sat, Dec 20 142 Kent St. L 59 - 69 54% -5  8 - 4 0 - 1 -12 -17 F F F +5 B- A- C
 Tue, Dec 30 241 @Eastern Michigan L 74 - 80 52% -2  8 - 5 0 - 2 -7 -1 F C+ A+ -6 C C F+
 Sat, Jan 3 147 Bowling Green L 100 - 101 OT 55% -0  8 - 6 0 - 3 -3 +7 A+ B- D- -10 D- A- F+
 Tue, Jan 6 214 @Ohio L 83 - 86 47% -3  8 - 7 0 - 4 -3 +6 B F C- -9 F B- C
 Sat, Jan 10 294 Ball St. W 79 - 71 82% +3  9 - 7 1 - 4 -3 +3 A- F C -6 D- C C-
 Tue, Jan 13 272 @Western Michigan W 85 - 82 59% +4  10 - 7 2 - 4 -0 +12 C- A+ D+ -12 F F D-
 Sat, Jan 17 310 @Northern Illinois L 68 - 70 68% -3  10 - 8 2 - 5 -8 -9 F D- F +1 B B D-
 Tue, Jan 20 165 Toledo W 84 - 82 60% +2  11 - 8 3 - 5 -1 +6 B- A- D+ -7 D- B- A+
 Fri, Jan 23 184 @Buffalo W 68 - 67 42% +7  12 - 8 4 - 5 +2 -3 F+ C+ D- +6 C- C+ B
 Tue, Jan 27 91 @Miami (OH) L 84 - 86 18% +3  12 - 9 4 - 6 +7 +16 A- A+ B- -9 A- F D+
 Sat, Jan 31 241 Eastern Michigan W 77 - 70 74%
 Tue, Feb 3 304 Central Michigan W 81 - 71 84%
 Sat, Feb 7 237 @Coastal Carolina W 76 - 75 52%
 Sat, Feb 14 62 @Akron L 78 - 91 11%
 Tue, Feb 17 91 Miami (OH) L 81 - 85 35%
 Sat, Feb 21 184 Buffalo W 81 - 77 64%
 Tue, Feb 24 294 @Ball St. W 74 - 70 63%
 Sat, Feb 28 147 @Bowling Green L 75 - 80 33%
 Tue, Mar 3 214 Ohio W 81 - 76 69%
Totals 17 - 13 8 - 10 -1 -1 C B D +0 C C+ C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.2 1.4 3rd
4th 0.0 1.2 5.2 2.9 0.2 9.5 4th
5th 0.8 8.0 7.1 0.8 16.6 5th
6th 0.2 6.0 12.3 1.9 0.0 20.4 6th
7th 0.0 2.8 13.3 5.0 0.1 21.3 7th
8th 1.0 9.2 6.3 0.4 16.9 8th
9th 0.1 3.1 4.6 0.4 0.0 8.3 9th
10th 0.6 2.6 0.7 0.0 3.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.7 0.5 0.0 1.3 11th
12th 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.4 12th
13th 0.1 0.0 0.1 13th
Total 0.2 1.7 7.3 17.5 26.8 26.9 14.6 4.5 0.4 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.4% 10.8% 10.8% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4
11-7 4.5% 5.8% 5.8% 13.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 4.3
10-8 14.6% 5.0% 5.0% 13.7 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 13.9
9-9 26.9% 3.2% 3.2% 14.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 26.1
8-10 26.8% 1.9% 1.9% 14.7 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 26.2
7-11 17.5% 0.8% 0.8% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 17.4
6-12 7.3% 7.3
5-13 1.7% 1.7
4-14 0.2% 0.2
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 2.6% 2.6% 0.0% 14.0 97.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%