Columbia
Ivy League
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.5#138
Expected Predictive Rating+5.3#100
Pace70.7#156
Improvement+0.6#138

Offense
Total Offense+0.8#143
First Shot+0.0#171
After Offensive Rebound+0.8#130
Layup/Dunks+1.9#110
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#227
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#99
Freethrows-3.8#346
Improvement+0.4#146

Defense
Total Defense+0.7#143
First Shot-0.5#194
After Offensive Rebounds+1.2#109
Layups/Dunks-3.4#299
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#195
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.9#73
Freethrows+0.0#185
Improvement+0.3#162
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 17.1% 20.7% 16.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.2 12.7 13.4
.500 or above 98.4% 99.7% 98.0%
.500 or above in Conference 83.4% 89.0% 81.9%
Conference Champion 19.1% 24.4% 17.7%
Last Place in Conference 2.8% 1.8% 3.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round17.1% 20.7% 16.2%
Second Round1.3% 2.0% 1.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.3% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: California (Away) - 20.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 11 - 4
Quad 33 - 34 - 7
Quad 414 - 218 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Fri, Nov 7 337 @New Haven W 71-53 81%     1 - 0 +10.2 +1.3 +10.1
  Mon, Nov 10 6 @Connecticut L 62-89 3%     1 - 1 -3.4 +4.2 -9.0
  Thu, Nov 13 304 Umass Lowell W 86-72 87%     2 - 1 +3.1 +8.6 -5.4
  Tue, Nov 18 288 Boston University W 54-49 86%     3 - 1 -5.0 -17.8 +13.8
  Fri, Nov 21 309 @Lehigh W 82-67 74%     4 - 1 +9.7 +8.7 +1.3
  Sun, Nov 23 310 Longwood W 95-70 88%     5 - 1 +13.7 +12.4 +0.4
  Wed, Nov 26 305 @Fairfield W 106-77 73%     6 - 1 +24.0 +29.3 -5.7
  Wed, Dec 3 115 Hofstra W 72-70 55%     7 - 1 +2.3 +3.9 -1.5
  Sat, Dec 6 329 Albany W 93-65 91%     8 - 1 +14.9 +14.5 +0.9
  Tue, Dec 9 197 @Stony Brook L 73-77 OT 54%     8 - 2 -3.4 -8.0 +5.0
  Sun, Dec 21 82 @California L 70-79 21%    
  Sun, Dec 28 344 @North Florida W 86-76 83%    
  Mon, Jan 5 161 @Cornell L 84-85 45%    
  Sat, Jan 10 200 Harvard W 75-68 74%    
  Sat, Jan 17 219 @Brown W 70-68 57%    
  Mon, Jan 19 79 @Yale L 74-83 21%    
  Sat, Jan 24 247 @Dartmouth W 78-75 62%    
  Fri, Jan 30 253 Penn W 83-73 81%    
  Sat, Jan 31 255 Princeton W 76-66 82%    
  Sat, Feb 7 161 Cornell W 87-82 67%    
  Fri, Feb 13 253 @Penn W 80-76 63%    
  Sat, Feb 14 255 @Princeton W 73-69 64%    
  Sat, Feb 21 247 Dartmouth W 81-72 80%    
  Fri, Feb 27 219 Brown W 73-65 76%    
  Sat, Feb 28 79 Yale L 77-80 40%    
  Sat, Mar 7 200 @Harvard W 72-71 54%    
Projected Record 18 - 8 9 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ivy League Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.0 3.7 6.2 5.5 2.3 0.4 19.1 1st
2nd 0.3 3.9 10.2 11.3 5.6 1.0 32.2 2nd
3rd 0.2 3.9 8.8 6.1 1.2 0.1 20.3 3rd
4th 0.1 2.4 6.3 3.1 0.4 12.2 4th
5th 0.1 1.2 4.3 2.0 0.1 7.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 2.6 1.4 0.1 4.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 1.2 0.9 0.1 2.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.0 1.2 8th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.9 2.2 4.8 8.4 12.6 16.0 17.6 16.2 11.8 6.4 2.3 0.4 Total



Ivy League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
13-1 100.0% 2.3    2.1 0.2
12-2 85.2% 5.5    4.0 1.5 0.0
11-3 52.5% 6.2    3.2 2.8 0.2
10-4 22.9% 3.7    1.2 1.9 0.6 0.0
9-5 5.4% 1.0    0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
8-6 0.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
7-7 0.0%
Total 19.1% 19.1 11.0 6.8 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0 0.4% 53.9% 53.9% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2
13-1 2.3% 39.4% 39.4% 12.1 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.4
12-2 6.4% 37.0% 37.0% 12.6 0.1 1.0 1.0 0.2 0.0 4.0
11-3 11.8% 28.7% 28.7% 13.0 0.0 0.8 1.9 0.7 0.0 8.4
10-4 16.2% 24.0% 24.0% 13.3 0.5 1.9 1.3 0.2 12.3
9-5 17.6% 19.5% 19.5% 13.6 0.2 1.4 1.5 0.3 14.2
8-6 16.0% 13.7% 13.7% 13.9 0.1 0.6 1.1 0.4 0.0 13.8
7-7 12.6% 5.1% 5.1% 14.3 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 12.0
6-8 8.4% 0.8% 0.8% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.3
5-9 4.8% 4.8
4-10 2.2% 2.2
3-11 0.9% 0.9
2-12 0.3% 0.3
1-13 0.0% 0.0
0-14 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 17.1% 17.1% 0.0% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 3.3 7.0 5.2 1.2 0.0 82.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 10.8 3.6 3.6 17.9 60.7 14.3