Columbia
Ivy League
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -0.7 #168
Expected Predictive Rating +1.5 #139
Pace 70.2 #142
Improvement -6.2 #363

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #151 B- C F C B-
Defense #209 C+ C+ F+ C C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% #56 1.15 #177 +2.8 #87
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #249 0.73 #212 -1.4 #257
Three Pointers 40% #215 1.12 #49 +1.3 #135
1st FG Attempt 1.07 #107 +2.7 #100
Freethrows 0.28 #253 76% #77 0.21 #202
Second Chance 34.8% #66 0.96 #296 0.33 #144
Turnovers 20.7% #356
Total Offense +0.3 #151

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% #47 1.06 #64 -0.9 #209
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #158 0.79 #234 -0.5 #218
Three Pointers 35% #335 1.02 #181 +3.0 #66
1st FG Attempt 0.99 #132 +1.6 #129
Freethrows 0.31 #208 73% #204 0.22 #207
Second Chance 28.3% #98 1.03 #144 0.29 #103
Turnovers 12.5% #351
Total Defense -1.0 #209

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.6% #74 0.6% #220
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 3.4% #120 -3.8% #109
Possession Length 18.3 #273 16.5 #53
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 #260 0.21 #307
Improvement -1.6 #262 -4.6 #356

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.1% 9.9% 4.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.7 13.7 13.8
.500 or above 98.6% 99.7% 96.6%
.500 or above in Conference 65.6% 76.4% 44.8%
Conference Champion 3.3% 4.5% 0.8%
Last Place in Conference 6.9% 3.4% 13.6%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round8.1% 9.9% 4.7%
Second Round0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Penn (Home) - 65.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 4
Quad 34 - 34 - 7
Quad 412 - 316 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 333 @New Haven W 71 - 53 75% +16  1 - 0 +10 +2 A F+ F +10 A+ B- D
 Mon, Nov 10 9 @Connecticut L 62 - 89 2% -16  1 - 1 -4 +5 C+ C C -10 D C- F
 Thu, Nov 13 317 Umass Lowell W 86 - 72 86% +1  2 - 1 +2 +8 B B- F -6 D B+ C-
 Tue, Nov 18 278 Boston University W 54 - 49 80% +12  3 - 1 -5 -17 F+ F F +14 A+ C F
 Fri, Nov 21 303 @Lehigh W 82 - 67 67% +9  4 - 1 +10 +9 B+ A+ F +1 C C+ F
 Sun, Nov 23 261 Longwood W 95 - 70 77% +13  5 - 1 +17 +15 A A- D +1 F+ A+ C+
 Wed, Nov 26 271 @Fairfield W 106 - 77 60% +18  6 - 1 +26 +28 A+ A+ C -3 C C+ C-
 Wed, Dec 3 128 Hofstra W 72 - 70 51% +6  7 - 1 +1 +1 B+ F F+ +0 A- C- D+
 Sat, Dec 6 309 Albany W 93 - 65 84% +9  8 - 1 +16 +16 A- A+ F+ +1 B A+ F
 Tue, Dec 9 236 @Stony Brook L 73 - 77 OT 52% -8  8 - 2 -5 -9 D F F +4 A- F+ B
 Sun, Dec 21 66 @California L 56 - 74 13% -11  8 - 3 -7 -8 B F F +1 B A- F
 Sun, Dec 28 348 @North Florida W 90 - 82 79% +1  9 - 3 -1 +4 A F D -6 C- A F
 Mon, Jan 5 176 @Cornell W 104 - 99 40% +1  10 - 3 1 - 0 +7 +10 A- D- F -4 B- D D
 Sat, Jan 10 179 Harvard L 54 - 79 64% -13  10 - 4 1 - 1 -29 -12 F C- F -21 F D+ D
 Sat, Jan 17 265 @Brown L 80 - 86 OT 58% +1  10 - 5 1 - 2 -9 +7 D+ A+ D+ -16 F B F
 Mon, Jan 19 70 @Yale L 74 - 91 14% -9  10 - 6 1 - 3 -6 +9 C- A+ D- -17 D- D D
 Sat, Jan 24 235 @Dartmouth W 79 - 69 52% +4  11 - 6 2 - 3 +9 +4 C D+ F +5 A F+ D-
 Fri, Jan 30 193 Penn W 80 - 76 66%
 Sat, Jan 31 213 Princeton W 74 - 69 69%
 Sat, Feb 7 176 Cornell W 90 - 87 63%
 Fri, Feb 13 193 @Penn L 77 - 79 43%
 Sat, Feb 14 213 @Princeton L 71 - 72 48%
 Sat, Feb 21 235 Dartmouth W 81 - 75 73%
 Fri, Feb 27 265 Brown W 73 - 65 78%
 Sat, Feb 28 70 Yale L 74 - 80 30%
 Sat, Mar 7 179 @Harvard L 70 - 72 42%
Totals 16 - 10 7 - 7 -1 +0 B- C F -1 C+ C+ F+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ivy League Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.9 1.5 0.8 3.3 1st
2nd 1.6 11.5 11.8 3.7 0.3 28.9 2nd
3rd 0.3 9.8 9.1 1.1 0.0 20.3 3rd
4th 0.0 4.3 10.1 1.2 0.0 15.6 4th
5th 1.1 9.7 2.1 12.8 5th
6th 0.3 5.0 4.0 0.1 9.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.6 3.9 0.3 7.1 7th
8th 0.1 0.9 1.3 0.2 2.6 8th
Total 0.2 1.2 4.2 10.2 18.6 23.7 21.8 13.9 5.3 1.0 Total



Ivy League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0
13-1
12-2
11-3 75.1% 0.8    0.4 0.4
10-4 28.4% 1.5    0.5 0.9 0.1
9-5 6.7% 0.9    0.1 0.4 0.4 0.0
8-6 0.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
7-7 0.0%
Total 3.3% 3.3 1.0 1.7 0.5 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0
13-1
12-2
11-3 1.0% 23.9% 23.9% 12.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.8
10-4 5.3% 19.9% 19.9% 13.1 0.2 0.7 0.2 0.0 4.2
9-5 13.9% 17.6% 17.6% 13.5 0.1 1.0 1.2 0.1 11.4
8-6 21.8% 14.1% 14.1% 13.9 0.0 0.8 1.7 0.5 0.0 18.7
7-7 23.7% 5.4% 5.4% 14.2 0.2 0.7 0.5 0.0 22.4
6-8 18.6% 0.2% 0.2% 14.7 0.0 0.0 18.5
5-9 10.2% 10.2
4-10 4.2% 4.2
3-11 1.2% 1.2
2-12 0.2% 0.2
1-13
0-14
Total 100% 8.1% 8.1% 0.0% 13.7 91.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 12.4 59.2 36.7 4.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.4%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3%
Lose Out 0.2%