Yale
Ivy League
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +7.9 #70
Expected Predictive Rating +9.2 #67
Pace 66.0 #262
Improvement -1.4 #252

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #40 B A- B B- C+
Defense #161 C C C- C+ C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% #49 1.12 #219 +2.3 #104
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #185 0.91 #23 +1.5 #99
Three Pointers 36% #287 1.23 #6 +1.2 #140
1st FG Attempt 1.12 #54 +5.0 #54
Freethrows 0.32 #127 79% #10 0.25 #77
Second Chance 34.8% #68 1.25 #15 0.43 #24
Turnovers 14.4% #62
Total Offense +7.7 #40

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #305 1.19 #233 +1.9 #117
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #192 0.79 #244 -0.2 #200
Three Pointers 46% #52 0.99 #138 -1.8 #273
1st FG Attempt 1.02 #182 -0.1 #183
Freethrows 0.29 #149 70% #87 0.20 #120
Second Chance 30.5% #177 1.07 #225 0.33 #202
Turnovers 15.2% #256
Total Defense +0.2 #161

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.8% #133 -0.5% #125
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 8.8% #56 0.7% #195
Possession Length 17.9 #232 17.8 #261
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 #323 0.14 #81
Improvement -4.2 #352 +2.9 #36

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 65.4% 66.0% 58.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 11.9 11.9 12.2
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 99.6%
Conference Champion 95.2% 96.3% 81.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round65.4% 66.0% 58.5%
Second Round12.3% 12.5% 9.1%
Sweet Sixteen2.5% 2.6% 1.8%
Elite Eight0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Dartmouth (Home) - 92.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 12 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 21 - 01 - 1
Quad 310 - 312 - 4
Quad 411 - 123 - 5


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 183 @Navy W 97 - 68 74% +14  1 - 0 +30 +20 A A+ B+ +8 C B- A+
 Tue, Nov 11 178 @Quinnipiac W 97 - 60 73% +18  2 - 0 +39 +24 A+ A+ C- +14 B+ C+ A+
 Sat, Nov 15 236 Stony Brook W 86 - 79 91% +7  3 - 0 -0 +18 A+ B- C- -17 F D- C+
 Tue, Nov 18 111 Rhode Island L 77 - 86 76% -0  3 - 1 -8 +10 C- A+ B- -19 F D+ D
 Fri, Nov 21 243 Green Bay W 73 - 67 88% +6  4 - 1 +1 +4 B- B- D+ -2 A+ F D
 Sun, Nov 23 162 College of Charleston W 74 - 63 78% +9  5 - 1 +11 +7 A- D+ C+ +5 B+ A+ D
 Mon, Nov 24 62 Akron W 97 - 94 46% +6  6 - 1 +12 +31 A+ B+ A+ -19 F F B-
 Sun, Nov 30 199 @Vermont W 77 - 74 76% +3  7 - 1 +3 +13 C C A+ -9 F C B
 Sun, Dec 7 136 Illinois-Chicago W 80 - 66 82% +4  8 - 1 +12 +13 D- A+ A+ +0 A B+ F+
 Wed, Dec 10 309 Albany W 93 - 82 93% +6  9 - 1 +2 +12 B- D C+ -10 F A+ F
 Mon, Dec 29 16 @Alabama L 78 - 102 12% -19  9 - 2 -3 +13 C+ A+ A- -17 C F+ F+
 Mon, Jan 5 265 @Brown W 70 - 53 84% +3  10 - 2 1 - 0 +14 +1 C+ B F +14 A+ B C-
 Sat, Jan 10 213 @Princeton L 60 - 76 78% -2  10 - 3 1 - 1 -16 -7 F B B- -10 F D+ B-
 Sat, Jan 17 176 Cornell W 102 - 68 87% +21  11 - 3 2 - 1 +30 +19 A- A- A+ +10 A+ A+ F
 Mon, Jan 19 168 Columbia W 91 - 74 86% +9  12 - 3 3 - 1 +13 +24 A+ A+ C -9 B F D
 Sat, Jan 24 193 @Penn W 77 - 60 75% +5  13 - 3 4 - 1 +18 +8 C B F +11 B A- C
 Fri, Jan 30 235 Dartmouth W 86 - 71 92%
 Sat, Jan 31 179 Harvard W 78 - 66 88%
 Fri, Feb 6 265 Brown W 78 - 61 94%
 Mon, Feb 9 276 @Howard W 80 - 69 86%
 Fri, Feb 13 235 @Dartmouth W 83 - 74 80%
 Sat, Feb 14 179 @Harvard W 75 - 69 73%
 Sat, Feb 21 193 Penn W 85 - 72 89%
 Fri, Feb 27 176 @Cornell W 92 - 86 71%
 Sat, Feb 28 168 @Columbia W 80 - 74 70%
 Sat, Mar 7 213 Princeton W 80 - 66 90%
Totals 21 - 5 11 - 3 +8 +8 B A- B +0 C C C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ivy League Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.1 2.8 11.8 26.3 33.3 20.9 95.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 1.9 1.1 0.1 3.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 8th
Total 0.0 0.3 1.3 4.9 12.9 26.3 33.3 20.9 Total



Ivy League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0
13-1 100.0% 20.9    20.9
12-2 100.0% 33.3    33.3 0.0
11-3 99.8% 26.3    25.0 1.3
10-4 91.7% 11.8    8.2 3.4 0.2
9-5 57.2% 2.8    0.6 1.4 0.8 0.1
8-6 7.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
7-7 0.0%
Total 95.2% 95.2 88.0 6.2 1.0 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0
13-1 20.9% 72.7% 72.6% 0.1% 11.3 0.1 0.3 9.6 5.1 0.1 5.7 0.3%
12-2 33.3% 68.2% 68.2% 11.9 0.0 4.4 16.7 1.6 0.0 10.6
11-3 26.3% 63.2% 63.2% 12.2 1.0 12.0 3.6 0.1 9.7
10-4 12.9% 58.8% 58.8% 12.4 0.1 4.6 2.6 0.2 5.3
9-5 4.9% 55.1% 55.1% 12.5 0.0 1.3 1.3 0.1 2.2
8-6 1.3% 39.6% 39.6% 12.8 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.8
7-7 0.3% 19.4% 19.4% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
6-8 0.0% 0.0
5-9
4-10
3-11
2-12
1-13
0-14
Total 100% 65.4% 65.4% 0.0% 11.9 34.6 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 13.5% 100.0% 11.3 0.5 2.5 67.2 29.7 0.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 2.5% 0.6% 11.0 0.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 2.5% 0.2% 12.0 0.2