Yale
Ivy League
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.4#79
Expected Predictive Rating+11.7#52
Pace66.8#253
Improvement-4.2#356

Offense
Total Offense+8.7#23
First Shot+7.6#20
After Offensive Rebound+1.0#120
Layup/Dunks+4.6#46
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#178
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#164
Freethrows+2.6#46
Improvement-2.9#354

Defense
Total Defense-1.3#216
First Shot-3.2#284
After Offensive Rebounds+1.8#66
Layups/Dunks-0.5#191
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#292
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.9#285
Freethrows+1.8#79
Improvement-1.3#281
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.2% 2.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 57.2% 64.9% 56.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.4% 2.5% 0.2%
Average Seed 11.9 11.1 12.0
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.1% 99.6% 99.1%
Conference Champion 75.2% 81.2% 74.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four0.2% 0.8% 0.1%
First Round57.1% 64.6% 56.2%
Second Round12.0% 16.9% 11.4%
Sweet Sixteen2.7% 4.1% 2.5%
Elite Eight0.4% 0.9% 0.3%
Final Four0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Alabama (Away) - 10.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 12 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 21 - 02 - 1
Quad 38 - 310 - 4
Quad 413 - 123 - 5


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Fri, Nov 7 204 @Navy W 97-68 75%     1 - 0 +29.2 +18.7 +8.3
  Tue, Nov 11 168 @Quinnipiac W 97-60 69%     2 - 0 +39.2 +24.9 +13.6
  Sat, Nov 15 197 Stony Brook W 86-79 88%     3 - 0 +1.6 +18.6 -16.3
  Tue, Nov 18 116 Rhode Island L 77-86 75%     3 - 1 -8.7 +9.5 -18.7
  Fri, Nov 21 277 Green Bay W 73-67 89%     4 - 1 -0.2 +5.6 -5.0
  Sun, Nov 23 172 College of Charleston W 74-63 79%     5 - 1 +10.0 +5.5 +5.3
  Mon, Nov 24 65 Akron W 97-94 46%     6 - 1 +11.4 +28.8 -17.2
  Sun, Nov 30 185 @Vermont W 77-74 72%     7 - 1 +4.3 +12.1 -7.4
  Sun, Dec 7 190 Illinois-Chicago W 80-66 87%     8 - 1 +9.1 +9.9 +0.2
  Wed, Dec 10 329 Albany W 93-82 94%     9 - 1 +0.9 +10.6 -10.2
  Mon, Dec 29 15 @Alabama L 82-95 11%    
  Mon, Jan 5 219 @Brown W 75-67 77%    
  Sat, Jan 10 255 @Princeton W 79-69 81%    
  Sat, Jan 17 161 Cornell W 92-82 84%    
  Mon, Jan 19 138 Columbia W 83-74 79%    
  Sat, Jan 24 253 @Penn W 85-75 81%    
  Fri, Jan 30 247 Dartmouth W 87-72 92%    
  Sat, Jan 31 200 Harvard W 80-67 88%    
  Fri, Feb 6 219 Brown W 78-64 90%    
  Mon, Feb 9 299 @Howard W 83-71 86%    
  Fri, Feb 13 247 @Dartmouth W 84-75 79%    
  Sat, Feb 14 200 @Harvard W 77-70 74%    
  Sat, Feb 21 253 Penn W 88-72 92%    
  Fri, Feb 27 161 @Cornell W 89-85 65%    
  Sat, Feb 28 138 @Columbia W 80-77 60%    
  Sat, Mar 7 255 Princeton W 82-66 92%    
Projected Record 21 - 5 11 - 3




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ivy League Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.4 7.1 16.2 22.6 19.1 8.7 75.2 1st
2nd 0.0 1.1 4.3 6.3 3.5 0.8 15.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.1 2.4 0.7 0.1 5.6 3rd
4th 0.1 0.9 0.9 0.1 2.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.0 0.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.8 4.2 8.1 14.1 19.7 23.4 19.1 8.7 Total



Ivy League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0 100.0% 8.7    8.7
13-1 100.0% 19.1    18.9 0.3
12-2 96.7% 22.6    20.2 2.4 0.0
11-3 82.1% 16.2    11.2 4.7 0.2
10-4 50.7% 7.1    3.0 3.2 0.9 0.0
9-5 16.7% 1.4    0.2 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.0
8-6 1.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
7-7 0.0%
Total 75.2% 75.2 62.3 11.1 1.6 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0 8.7% 76.4% 75.1% 1.3% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 3.8 1.5 0.0 2.1 5.2%
13-1 19.1% 68.3% 68.0% 0.3% 11.6 0.0 0.2 5.3 6.8 0.7 0.0 6.1 1.1%
12-2 23.4% 63.0% 62.9% 0.0% 12.0 0.0 2.5 10.1 2.0 0.1 0.0 8.7 0.1%
11-3 19.7% 55.3% 55.3% 12.3 0.0 0.6 7.0 3.0 0.2 8.8
10-4 14.1% 47.9% 47.9% 12.5 0.1 3.6 2.6 0.4 0.0 7.3
9-5 8.1% 43.2% 43.2% 12.7 0.0 1.4 1.7 0.4 0.0 4.6
8-6 4.2% 33.9% 33.9% 13.0 0.3 0.8 0.3 0.0 2.8
7-7 1.8% 8.4% 8.4% 13.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.7
6-8 0.7% 1.5% 1.5% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.7
5-9 0.2% 0.2
4-10 0.1% 0.1
3-11 0.0% 0.0
2-12 0.0% 0.0
1-13
0-14
Total 100% 57.2% 57.0% 0.2% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 12.3 30.8 11.0 1.3 0.0 42.8 0.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.0% 100.0% 8.4 0.3 0.7 2.3 8.0 10.0 12.4 11.4 17.1 19.4 17.7 0.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 23.7% 10.6 2.6 7.9 10.5 2.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 14.3% 9.8 2.9 2.9 2.9 5.7