Penn
Ivy League
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -2.1 #193
Expected Predictive Rating -1.1 #189
Pace 71.7 #99
Improvement +1.2 #126

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #179 C C C C+ D
Defense #226 C- C+ C- B+ C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #282 1.00 #338 -4.8 #331
2 Pt. Jumpers 27% #56 0.83 #82 +3.5 #35
Three Pointers 38% #251 1.17 #20 +1.2 #138
1st FG Attempt 1.02 #175 +0.0 #175
Freethrows 0.33 #109 70% #254 0.23 #135
Second Chance 30.2% #198 1.06 #161 0.32 #174
Turnovers 16.5% #182
Total Offense -0.5 #179

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #56 1.27 #310 -5.2 #342
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #147 0.85 #315 -1.4 #292
Three Pointers 35% #333 0.94 #78 +4.4 #32
1st FG Attempt 1.06 #251 -2.2 #252
Freethrows 0.25 #41 67% #20 0.17 #23
Second Chance 31.5% #229 0.95 #54 0.30 #118
Turnovers 15.3% #245
Total Defense -1.6 #226

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -2.2% #314 0.5% #212
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 2.3% #139 3.7% #252
Possession Length 16.3 #81 17.4 #193
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 #321 0.20 #287
Improvement -0.4 #201 +1.6 #88

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.3% 8.1% 3.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.5 14.3 14.6
.500 or above 36.4% 56.0% 26.2%
.500 or above in Conference 47.7% 69.1% 36.6%
Conference Champion 1.2% 2.5% 0.4%
Last Place in Conference 13.3% 4.9% 17.6%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round5.3% 8.1% 3.8%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Columbia (Away) - 34.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 30 - 6
Quad 34 - 64 - 12
Quad 49 - 213 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sun, Nov 9 220 @American L 78 - 84 44% -3  0 - 1 -7 -1 C- D F -5 D- B- C
 Tue, Nov 11 67 @Providence L 81 - 106 11% -10  0 - 2 -14 -0 F+ C B -11 D- F A
 Mon, Nov 17 137 Saint Joseph's W 83 - 74 49% +1  1 - 2 +7 +6 A- D- F+ +1 D+ A+ C+
 Fri, Nov 21 201 @Drexel W 84 - 68 41% +9  2 - 2 +16 +17 B A C- -0 B C- F
 Fri, Nov 28 205 Merrimack W 77 - 65 64% +4  3 - 2 +6 +5 B C B +2 A- C+ F
 Sat, Nov 29 200 La Salle W 73 - 71 63% -3  4 - 2 -4 +5 B- A- C- -8 A+ F D
 Sun, Nov 30 128 Hofstra L 60 - 77 46% -4  4 - 3 -18 -13 F C+ C- -6 F+ D A+
 Sat, Dec 6 34 Villanova L 63 - 90 8% -15  4 - 4 -13 +0 C B- D+ -15 F B+ C
 Mon, Dec 8 316 Lafayette W 74 - 72 83% +6  5 - 4 -10 -5 D F+ B- -5 F A+ B-
 Sat, Dec 20 120 @Rutgers L 69 - 70 23% +4  5 - 5 +5 +0 F A+ D- +4 C+ A+ F
 Sun, Dec 28 87 @George Mason L 79 - 83 14% -3  5 - 6 +6 +11 A+ C- A- -6 D+ D- F+
 Wed, Dec 31 338 NJIT W 80 - 61 87% +6  6 - 6 +5 +2 A- D- D +2 C+ A- B-
 Mon, Jan 5 213 @Princeton L 76 - 78 42% +1  6 - 7 0 - 1 -2 +8 D A+ F -11 F A- D
 Sat, Jan 10 265 Brown W 81 - 73 74% +1  7 - 7 1 - 1 -1 +11 A F B+ -12 D- D+ D-
 Sat, Jan 17 235 @Dartmouth W 84 - 74 47% +1  8 - 7 2 - 1 +9 +8 B+ C A- +1 B C+ C-
 Mon, Jan 19 179 @Harvard L 63 - 64 36% -1  8 - 8 2 - 2 +1 -1 C- F C- +2 C B+ C+
 Sat, Jan 24 70 Yale L 60 - 77 25% -5  8 - 9 2 - 3 -12 -11 D F+ D+ -2 B- B A
 Fri, Jan 30 168 @Columbia L 76 - 80 34%
 Sat, Jan 31 176 @Cornell L 87 - 91 36%
 Sat, Feb 7 213 Princeton W 75 - 71 64%
 Fri, Feb 13 168 Columbia W 79 - 77 57%
 Sat, Feb 14 176 Cornell W 90 - 88 59%
 Sat, Feb 21 70 @Yale L 72 - 85 11%
 Fri, Feb 27 235 Dartmouth W 82 - 77 69%
 Sat, Feb 28 179 Harvard W 73 - 71 59%
 Fri, Mar 6 265 @Brown W 70 - 69 53%
Totals 12 - 14 6 - 8 -2 +0 C C C -2 C- C+ C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ivy League Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 0.5 0.2 1.2 1st
2nd 1.5 8.4 6.2 1.4 0.0 17.6 2nd
3rd 0.3 9.3 6.5 0.5 16.7 3rd
4th 0.0 5.5 9.6 0.8 0.0 16.0 4th
5th 1.7 12.0 2.2 0.0 15.8 5th
6th 0.6 8.3 5.4 0.1 14.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 5.3 6.6 0.4 13.2 7th
8th 0.4 2.0 2.7 0.3 5.3 8th
Total 0.4 2.8 8.6 16.9 23.6 22.7 15.8 7.2 2.0 0.2 Total



Ivy League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0
13-1
12-2
11-3 76.9% 0.2    0.1 0.1
10-4 26.1% 0.5    0.2 0.3 0.0
9-5 6.5% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0
8-6 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
7-7 0.0%
Total 1.2% 1.2 0.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0
13-1
12-2
11-3 0.2% 28.2% 28.2% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
10-4 2.0% 16.1% 16.1% 13.4 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.6
9-5 7.2% 15.4% 15.4% 13.9 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.2 6.1
8-6 15.8% 12.7% 12.7% 14.5 0.1 0.8 1.1 0.0 13.8
7-7 22.7% 7.6% 7.6% 14.9 0.2 1.5 0.1 20.9
6-8 23.6% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 23.5
5-9 16.9% 16.9
4-10 8.6% 8.6
3-11 2.8% 2.8
2-12 0.4% 0.4
1-13
0-14
Total 100% 5.3% 5.3% 0.0% 14.5 94.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.4%