Toledo
Mid-American
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -0.4 #165
Expected Predictive Rating -0.9 #182
Pace 70.1 #149
Improvement +0.2 #174

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #102 B- C- B- C D+
Defense #278 D- C- B- A- D-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #104 1.14 #192 +1.3 #130
2 Pt. Jumpers 27% #55 0.87 #47 +4.2 #25
Three Pointers 31% #346 1.15 #25 -2.8 #286
1st FG Attempt 1.07 #106 +2.6 #107
Freethrows 0.29 #234 77% #42 0.22 #167
Second Chance 30.9% #166 0.98 #266 0.30 #209
Turnovers 15.1% #95
Total Offense +2.8 #102

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #75 1.24 #286 -4.2 #315
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% #337 0.84 #302 +1.6 #74
Three Pointers 43% #130 1.13 #316 -3.2 #308
1st FG Attempt 1.13 #336 -5.8 #337
Freethrows 0.22 #13 70% #65 0.16 #13
Second Chance 33.7% #306 0.99 #105 0.33 #227
Turnovers 17.9% #83
Total Defense -3.2 #278

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.3% #277 2.1% #345
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 6.5% #77 9.0% #328
Possession Length 16.6 #104 17.5 #200
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.23 #54 0.21 #297
Improvement +0.0 #181 +0.1 #186

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.1% 4.3% 2.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.1 14.0 14.6
.500 or above 59.5% 65.0% 31.9%
.500 or above in Conference 88.0% 91.8% 69.1%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
First Round4.1% 4.3% 2.8%
Second Round0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Ball St. (Home) - 83.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 21 - 41 - 6
Quad 34 - 65 - 13
Quad 410 - 315 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 190 South Alabama L 74 - 76 67% -9  0 - 1 -7 +7 A+ F+ C -14 F D- A-
 Sat, Nov 8 163 Marshall L 73 - 85 61% +1  0 - 2 -15 -3 C D D- -12 F A+ B
 Tue, Nov 11 153 @Wright St. W 81 - 71 35% +4  1 - 2 +14 +13 B+ A+ F +2 F+ C- A+
 Sat, Nov 15 289 Detroit Mercy W 90 - 83 83% +4  2 - 2 -3 +4 B+ D+ F -7 D- C C
 Wed, Nov 19 222 Youngstown St. W 92 - 75 72% +8  3 - 2 +10 +11 A- B- C+ -1 D+ F A+
 Mon, Nov 24 115 Troy W 75 - 68 35% +2  4 - 2 +10 +4 C C C+ +6 B+ A+ C
 Wed, Nov 26 75 Belmont L 72 - 87 22% -3  4 - 3 -7 +0 B- D+ C+ -7 F F A+
 Sat, Dec 6 135 @Oakland L 97 - 98 32% +1  4 - 4 +3 +12 B- B+ C -8 D+ D F
 Sat, Dec 13 208 @Robert Morris L 70 - 75 48% +6  4 - 5 -5 -3 F D- A+ -2 C A F
 Tue, Dec 16 6 @Michigan St. L 69 - 92 2% -20  4 - 6 +1 +9 C C A+ -8 F+ C B+
 Tue, Dec 30 272 Western Michigan W 84 - 79 80% -3  5 - 6 1 - 0 -4 +3 D- B D+ -7 C D- A-
 Sat, Jan 3 304 @Central Michigan W 78 - 75 68% -5  6 - 6 2 - 0 -2 +3 D- F A+ -5 D- B- D-
 Tue, Jan 6 310 @Northern Illinois W 75 - 61 70% +11  7 - 6 3 - 0 +8 -0 C+ F D+ +8 C- B- A+
 Fri, Jan 9 91 Miami (OH) L 73 - 87 37% -17  7 - 7 3 - 1 -11 -1 D+ D- C+ -10 F+ C- C
 Tue, Jan 13 214 Ohio W 101 - 85 71% +4  8 - 7 4 - 1 +10 +25 A+ A+ A- -16 F+ F C
 Fri, Jan 16 142 @Kent St. L 84 - 87 33% +0  8 - 8 4 - 2 +1 +10 C+ B+ C- -8 D C F
 Tue, Jan 20 170 @Massachusetts L 82 - 84 40% -2  8 - 9 4 - 3 +0 +10 A- C- F -10 F D- C+
 Sat, Jan 24 147 Bowling Green W 73 - 72 57% -1  9 - 9 5 - 3 -1 +2 D B A+ -3 F A+ A+
 Tue, Jan 27 62 @Akron L 81 - 91 13% -0  9 - 10 5 - 4 +2 +11 A+ D+ F+ -9 C+ F+ B-
 Sat, Jan 31 294 Ball St. W 78 - 68 83%
 Tue, Feb 3 142 Kent St. W 84 - 83 56%
 Sat, Feb 7 210 @James Madison L 77 - 78 49%
 Wed, Feb 11 272 @Western Michigan W 81 - 78 60%
 Sat, Feb 14 147 @Bowling Green L 76 - 80 34%
 Sat, Feb 21 241 Eastern Michigan W 78 - 71 74%
 Tue, Feb 24 310 Northern Illinois W 82 - 71 85%
 Sat, Feb 28 214 @Ohio L 79 - 80 49%
 Tue, Mar 3 91 @Miami (OH) L 79 - 88 19%
 Fri, Mar 6 184 Buffalo W 82 - 78 66%
Totals 15 - 14 10 - 8 +0 +3 B- C- B- -3 D- C- B-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.9 6.1 9.2 4.3 0.6 21.1 3rd
4th 0.0 1.5 12.0 15.7 5.4 0.4 0.0 35.0 4th
5th 0.4 6.8 10.3 2.4 0.0 19.8 5th
6th 0.0 2.6 7.5 2.0 0.0 12.2 6th
7th 0.5 3.9 1.9 0.1 6.4 7th
8th 0.0 1.2 1.6 0.1 3.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.1 1.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 13th
Total 0.0 0.5 2.7 8.7 17.8 25.3 24.3 14.7 5.1 0.9 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 2.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.9% 7.5% 7.5% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8
13-5 5.1% 7.8% 7.8% 13.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 4.7
12-6 14.7% 6.3% 6.3% 13.4 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 13.8
11-7 24.3% 4.9% 4.9% 14.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.3 23.1
10-8 25.3% 3.6% 3.6% 14.7 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.0 24.4
9-9 17.8% 2.2% 2.2% 15.1 0.0 0.3 0.1 17.4
8-10 8.7% 1.8% 1.8% 15.6 0.1 0.1 8.5
7-11 2.7% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 2.7
6-12 0.5% 0.5
5-13 0.0% 0.0
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 4.1% 4.1% 0.0% 14.1 95.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%