High Point
Big South
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+5.4#95
Expected Predictive Rating+3.6#119
Pace74.0#62
Improvement-2.6#332

Offense
Total Offense+5.9#58
First Shot+4.7#63
After Offensive Rebound+1.2#101
Layup/Dunks+5.1#39
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#241
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#208
Freethrows+1.8#84
Improvement-1.1#268

Defense
Total Defense-0.5#184
First Shot-0.2#181
After Offensive Rebounds-0.3#212
Layups/Dunks+1.4#127
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#56
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.1#295
Freethrows-0.2#196
Improvement-1.5#294
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 48.1% 49.3% 41.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.9 12.8 13.4
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
.500 or above in Conference 99.6% 99.6% 99.1%
Conference Champion 65.1% 66.7% 56.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round48.1% 49.3% 41.5%
Second Round6.7% 7.1% 4.5%
Sweet Sixteen1.4% 1.5% 1.0%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Appalachian St. (Neutral) - 84.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 14 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 10 - 1
Quad 34 - 25 - 4
Quad 420 - 225 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 148 Furman W 97-71 68%     1 - 0 +26.7 +19.4 +6.2
  Tue, Nov 11 291 Jacksonville W 85-64 92%     2 - 0 +10.8 +9.8 +1.4
  Fri, Nov 14 110 @UAB L 74-91 45%     2 - 1 -10.2 -3.0 -5.5
  Mon, Nov 17 339 Canisius W 93-50 95%     3 - 1 +28.9 +20.6 +10.7
  Thu, Nov 20 190 Illinois-Chicago W 90-80 76%     4 - 1 +8.1 +11.8 -4.1
  Sat, Nov 22 189 Incarnate Word W 91-80 76%     5 - 1 +9.2 +20.4 -10.5
  Sat, Nov 29 294 Western Carolina W 93-73 92%     6 - 1 +9.7 +10.7 -2.1
  Wed, Dec 3 130 Southern Illinois L 84-86 73%     6 - 2 -2.9 +6.5 -9.3
  Fri, Dec 5 352 NJIT W 89-72 97%     7 - 2 +1.1 +7.2 -7.0
  Sun, Dec 14 259 Appalachian St. W 78-67 85%    
  Fri, Dec 19 238 La Salle W 82-69 88%    
  Mon, Dec 22 297 Bryant W 84-68 93%    
  Wed, Dec 31 227 @UNC Asheville W 82-76 72%    
  Sat, Jan 3 310 Longwood W 90-73 94%    
  Wed, Jan 7 357 Gardner-Webb W 95-72 98%    
  Sat, Jan 10 266 @Charleston Southern W 84-76 77%    
  Wed, Jan 14 112 @Winthrop L 84-85 46%    
  Sat, Jan 17 261 South Carolina Upstate W 86-72 90%    
  Sat, Jan 24 267 @Radford W 88-80 77%    
  Thu, Jan 29 260 Presbyterian W 79-65 90%    
  Sat, Jan 31 310 @Longwood W 87-76 83%    
  Wed, Feb 4 266 Charleston Southern W 87-73 90%    
  Sat, Feb 7 267 Radford W 91-77 90%    
  Thu, Feb 12 261 @South Carolina Upstate W 83-75 76%    
  Sat, Feb 14 357 Gardner-Webb W 95-72 98%    
  Thu, Feb 19 227 UNC Asheville W 85-73 86%    
  Sat, Feb 21 112 Winthrop W 87-82 67%    
  Thu, Feb 26 260 @Presbyterian W 76-68 76%    
Projected Record 23 - 5 13 - 3




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big South Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.2 5.6 14.0 20.4 17.0 6.9 65.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 2.1 6.4 8.8 6.6 1.9 26.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.1 2.4 1.9 0.6 0.0 6.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.8 4th
5th 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.1 5.2 9.6 15.0 20.6 22.3 17.0 6.9 Total



Big South Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 6.9    6.9
15-1 100.0% 17.0    16.2 0.8
14-2 91.3% 20.4    16.5 3.9 0.0
13-3 67.9% 14.0    9.0 4.8 0.2
12-4 37.3% 5.6    2.4 2.6 0.5 0.0
11-5 12.7% 1.2    0.3 0.6 0.3 0.1
10-6 2.4% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 65.1% 65.1 51.2 12.7 1.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 6.9% 68.3% 68.2% 0.0% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 2.6 1.4 0.3 0.0 2.2 0.2%
15-1 17.0% 60.0% 60.0% 12.3 0.9 5.9 3.1 0.3 6.8
14-2 22.3% 54.3% 54.3% 12.8 0.1 4.0 6.2 1.6 0.1 10.2
13-3 20.6% 46.5% 46.5% 13.2 0.0 1.3 5.1 2.9 0.3 11.0
12-4 15.0% 40.6% 40.6% 13.6 0.0 0.4 2.3 2.8 0.6 0.0 8.9
11-5 9.6% 34.2% 34.2% 13.9 0.1 0.9 1.7 0.6 0.0 6.3
10-6 5.2% 27.6% 27.6% 14.3 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.5 0.0 3.8
9-7 2.1% 21.9% 21.9% 14.6 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 1.6
8-8 1.0% 20.9% 20.9% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.8
7-9 0.3% 24.5% 24.5% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.2
6-10 0.1% 9.5% 9.5% 16.0 0.0 0.1
5-11 0.0% 0.0 0.0
4-12 0.0% 0.0
3-13 0.0% 0.0
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 48.1% 48.1% 0.0% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 3.6 13.0 18.0 10.3 2.4 0.2 51.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 3.8% 100.0% 11.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 1.3 3.5 6.9 62.1 24.6 1.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.9%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.5% 0.6% 11.0 0.6