High Point
Big South
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+5.3#97
Expected Predictive Rating+3.6#119
Pace73.7#73
Improvement-2.5#332

Offense
Total Offense+6.0#54
First Shot+4.9#57
After Offensive Rebound+1.0#115
Layup/Dunks+5.4#38
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#238
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#215
Freethrows+1.7#89
Improvement-1.1#283

Defense
Total Defense-0.7#188
First Shot-0.5#191
After Offensive Rebounds-0.2#206
Layups/Dunks+1.5#121
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#54
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.5#304
Freethrows-0.2#199
Improvement-1.3#289
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 46.1% 47.2% 40.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.9 12.8 13.4
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.5% 99.6% 98.9%
Conference Champion 63.3% 64.7% 55.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round46.1% 47.2% 40.6%
Second Round6.3% 6.7% 3.8%
Sweet Sixteen1.3% 1.4% 0.9%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Appalachian St. (Neutral) - 84.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 14 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 10 - 1
Quad 34 - 35 - 4
Quad 420 - 225 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 147 Furman W 97-71 67%     1 - 0 +26.7 +19.4 +6.2
  Tue, Nov 11 293 Jacksonville W 85-64 92%     2 - 0 +10.8 +9.7 +1.4
  Fri, Nov 14 109 @UAB L 74-91 44%     2 - 1 -10.2 -3.1 -5.3
  Mon, Nov 17 354 Canisius W 93-50 97%     3 - 1 +26.7 +19.0 +10.0
  Thu, Nov 20 201 Illinois-Chicago W 90-80 78%     4 - 1 +7.3 +12.9 -6.1
  Sat, Nov 22 183 Incarnate Word W 91-80 75%     5 - 1 +9.3 +20.5 -10.5
  Sat, Nov 29 291 Western Carolina W 93-73 92%     6 - 1 +9.8 +10.7 -2.0
  Wed, Dec 3 125 Southern Illinois L 84-86 71%     6 - 2 -2.5 +6.3 -8.6
  Fri, Dec 5 347 NJIT W 89-72 96%     7 - 2 +1.8 +6.8 -5.9
  Sun, Dec 14 256 Appalachian St. W 77-66 84%    
  Fri, Dec 19 229 La Salle W 82-70 88%    
  Mon, Dec 22 289 Bryant W 83-68 93%    
  Wed, Dec 31 196 @UNC Asheville W 82-77 67%    
  Sat, Jan 3 290 Longwood W 89-74 92%    
  Wed, Jan 7 356 Gardner-Webb W 95-72 98%    
  Sat, Jan 10 265 @Charleston Southern W 84-76 76%    
  Wed, Jan 14 114 @Winthrop L 84-85 46%    
  Sat, Jan 17 271 South Carolina Upstate W 87-73 90%    
  Sat, Jan 24 272 @Radford W 88-80 77%    
  Thu, Jan 29 261 Presbyterian W 79-65 90%    
  Sat, Jan 31 290 @Longwood W 86-77 80%    
  Wed, Feb 4 265 Charleston Southern W 87-73 90%    
  Sat, Feb 7 272 Radford W 91-77 90%    
  Thu, Feb 12 271 @South Carolina Upstate W 84-76 77%    
  Sat, Feb 14 356 Gardner-Webb W 95-72 98%    
  Thu, Feb 19 196 UNC Asheville W 85-74 83%    
  Sat, Feb 21 114 Winthrop W 87-82 67%    
  Thu, Feb 26 261 @Presbyterian W 76-68 76%    
Projected Record 23 - 5 13 - 3




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big South Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.5 6.1 14.7 19.4 15.5 6.0 63.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 2.1 6.4 9.1 6.4 1.9 26.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 1.2 2.9 2.1 0.7 0.0 7.0 3rd
4th 0.1 0.5 1.1 0.6 0.1 2.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.7 5.8 10.1 15.9 21.1 21.3 15.5 6.0 Total



Big South Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 6.0    6.0
15-1 100.0% 15.5    14.9 0.6
14-2 91.3% 19.4    15.9 3.5 0.0
13-3 69.4% 14.7    9.5 4.9 0.3
12-4 38.6% 6.1    2.7 2.8 0.6 0.0
11-5 14.7% 1.5    0.3 0.7 0.4 0.1
10-6 2.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 63.3% 63.3 49.3 12.5 1.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 6.0% 66.6% 66.6% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 2.0 1.4 0.2 0.0 2.0
15-1 15.5% 61.5% 61.5% 12.3 0.0 0.9 5.6 2.8 0.3 0.0 6.0
14-2 21.3% 52.8% 52.8% 12.8 0.1 3.8 5.8 1.5 0.0 10.0
13-3 21.1% 45.3% 45.3% 13.2 0.0 1.5 4.9 2.9 0.2 11.5
12-4 15.9% 39.1% 39.1% 13.5 0.4 2.6 2.8 0.4 0.0 9.7
11-5 10.1% 32.2% 32.2% 13.9 0.1 1.0 1.6 0.6 0.0 6.8
10-6 5.8% 26.1% 26.1% 14.2 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.5 0.0 4.3
9-7 2.7% 21.8% 21.8% 14.6 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 2.1
8-8 1.1% 16.3% 16.3% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.9
7-9 0.4% 11.8% 11.8% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4
6-10 0.1% 17.2% 17.2% 16.0 0.0 0.1
5-11 0.0% 0.0
4-12 0.0% 0.0
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 46.1% 46.1% 0.0% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 3.0 12.7 17.5 10.1 2.2 0.2 53.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 3.1% 100.0% 11.1 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.8 3.3 7.6 57.8 28.1 1.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.8%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.5%