South Carolina Upstate
Big South
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -8.5 #307
Expected Predictive Rating -9.1 #316
Pace 69.8 #156
Improvement -5.7 #357

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #327 D+ D+ C- C- C
Defense #243 C- C- D C C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #116 1.03 #322 -1.3 #231
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #109 0.73 #218 +0.7 #146
Three Pointers 35% #309 1.01 #198 -3.1 #291
1st FG Attempt 0.95 #286 -3.8 #290
Freethrows 0.30 #206 70% #257 0.21 #239
Second Chance 27.7% #262 0.97 #274 0.27 #277
Turnovers 17.3% #239
Total Offense -6.3 #327

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% #39 1.15 #165 -3.2 #285
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #184 0.74 #139 +0.8 #139
Three Pointers 35% #327 1.09 #279 +1.7 #121
1st FG Attempt 1.04 #219 -0.8 #204
Freethrows 0.32 #230 72% #147 0.23 #218
Second Chance 31.3% #211 1.09 #246 0.34 #239
Turnovers 14.3% #308
Total Defense -2.2 #243

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.5% #222 0.9% #248
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -6.4% #289 1.6% #209
Possession Length 17.1 #143 15.8 #14
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 #180 0.17 #168
Improvement -3.5 #345 -2.2 #307

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.8% 1.0% 0.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 1.5% 2.7% 0.3%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 9.8% 4.2% 15.3%
First Four0.8% 0.9% 0.6%
First Round0.4% 0.5% 0.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Longwood (Home) - 49.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 32 - 52 - 10
Quad 48 - 1010 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 139 @California Baptist L 75 - 87 12% -8  0 - 1 -8 +5 B- C+ F -12 F A- F
 Wed, Nov 5 152 @Fresno St. W 67 - 66 13% -4  1 - 1 +5 -2 B B- F +6 A+ F C-
 Sat, Nov 15 122 @UNC Wilmington L 60 - 73 10% -8  1 - 2 -7 -2 D C+ F -8 C- F C+
 Wed, Nov 19 337 Tennessee Tech L 84 - 88 71% -3  1 - 3 -18 -3 C F B+ -15 F F B+
 Fri, Nov 21 329 @West Georgia L 64 - 72 46% -4  1 - 4 -15 -14 F F+ C -1 C F A+
 Tue, Nov 25 342 NC Central W 82 - 67 73% +10  2 - 4 +0 +3 A- D+ F -3 A- D- F
 Sat, Nov 29 13 @Nebraska L 63 - 72 1% -2  2 - 5 +13 +0 C C- A+ +13 A+ C+ A
 Wed, Dec 3 237 Coastal Carolina W 85 - 78 OT 45% -7  3 - 5 -0 -1 C D- D+ -0 C A- D+
 Sat, Dec 6 273 Western Carolina W 78 - 67 53% +4  4 - 5 +2 -3 D- C- F+ +5 A+ C+ D
 Sat, Dec 13 29 @North Carolina L 62 - 80 2% -8  4 - 6 -0 +2 C B- B+ -4 C B- F+
 Tue, Dec 16 359 @South Carolina St. W 78 - 72 63% +6  5 - 6 -6 +3 C+ C- D+ -9 F D+ D-
 Sat, Dec 20 222 @Youngstown St. L 65 - 74 23% -8  5 - 7 -10 -8 F C- D+ -1 D A+ C-
 Wed, Dec 31 255 Radford L 69 - 76 49% -4  5 - 8 0 - 1 -15 -13 F C- D+ -2 C D B-
 Sat, Jan 3 268 @Presbyterian L 77 - 86 30% -4  5 - 9 0 - 2 -12 +3 B D F+ -15 F D F
 Sat, Jan 10 124 Winthrop L 50 - 71 23% -15  5 - 10 0 - 3 -22 -22 F D F+ -1 D+ C+ B+
 Wed, Jan 14 230 @Charleston Southern W 86 - 81 OT 24% -1  6 - 10 1 - 3 +4 +3 D- B+ B- -0 D- A+ D
 Sat, Jan 17 96 @High Point L 69 - 89 7% -7  6 - 11 1 - 4 -11 -1 F B- D- -12 B- F F
 Wed, Jan 21 203 UNC Asheville L 69 - 83 39% -6  6 - 12 1 - 5 -20 -3 C+ F A- -18 F B- F
 Fri, Jan 23 363 @Gardner-Webb L 65 - 67 74% +3  6 - 13 1 - 6 -17 -12 F F D -6 C D- D
 Thu, Jan 29 261 Longwood L 73 - 74 50%
 Wed, Feb 4 203 @UNC Asheville L 66 - 75 20%
 Sat, Feb 7 230 Charleston Southern L 75 - 76 44%
 Thu, Feb 12 96 High Point L 72 - 83 15%
 Sat, Feb 14 261 @Longwood L 71 - 77 28%
 Thu, Feb 19 124 @Winthrop L 68 - 82 10%
 Sat, Feb 21 268 Presbyterian W 69 - 68 51%
 Thu, Feb 26 255 @Radford L 75 - 81 28%
 Sat, Feb 28 363 Gardner-Webb W 82 - 69 88%
Totals 9 - 19 4 - 12 -8 -6 D+ D+ C- -2 C- C- D




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big South Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 0.7 0.0 1.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 2.4 0.3 3.6 5th
6th 0.0 1.0 5.5 1.7 0.0 8.3 6th
7th 0.7 5.2 12.4 6.4 0.2 24.9 7th
8th 6.0 18.8 21.7 10.4 0.9 57.9 8th
9th 0.9 1.7 0.7 0.1 3.4 9th
Total 0.9 7.7 20.2 27.0 23.8 13.7 5.2 1.3 0.2 0.0 Total



Big South Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6 0.0% 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.2% 3.2% 3.2% 16.0 0.0 0.2
8-8 1.3% 2.2% 2.2% 15.8 0.0 0.0 1.3
7-9 5.2% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.1 5.1
6-10 13.7% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.2 13.4
5-11 23.8% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.2 23.6
4-12 27.0% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 26.9
3-13 20.2% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 20.2
2-14 7.7% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 7.7
1-15 0.9% 0.9
0-16
Total 100% 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 16.0 99.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%