Ball St.
Mid-American
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating -7.1 281
Results Rating -7.6 291
Consistency 0.17 282
Pace 61.6 342
Improvement +6.2 19

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D 336 D- D- C D+ C+
Defense C 179 C- C- B- C C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% 126 D- 50% 339 -2.0 258
2 Pt. Jumpers 36% 206 D- 32% 333 -1.5 260
Three Pointers 40% 207 D- 30% 331 -2.9 277
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ +0.3 154 F+ -6.5 356
1st FG Attempt D- 0.89 348
Second Chance D 25.4% 314 F+ 0.88 349 D- 0.22 346
Opponents' Steals B- 8.7% 108
Other Turnovers D+ 7.9% 263
Turnovers C 16.5% 171
Freethrows D+ 0.28 256 D+ 70% 255 D+ 0.20 273
Total Offense D -6.8 336

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots D+ 44% 264 F+ 14.9% 347
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 30% 107 F+ 8.5% 340
Three Pointers C+ 85% 159 B- 0.6% 106
Total C- 54% 203 F 7.9% 352


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% 262 C- 60% 244 -0.4 159
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% 166 C+ 37% 153 -0.1 179
Three Pointers 43% 112 C- 35% 246 +1.8 281
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ -0.2 131 C- +1.4 240
1st FG Attempt C- 1.05 220
Second Chance D+ 32.9% 291 C 1.02 156 C- 0.34 251
Turnovers from Steals B- 10.9% 70
Other Turnovers C 7.1% 185
Turnovers B- 18.0% 96
Freethrows C+ 0.29 132 F 78% 363 C 0.23 209
Total Defense C -0.2 179

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C- 51% 241 C- 9.4% 234
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 28% 230 C 4.8% 173
Three Pointers C- 84% 198 D 0.2% 328
Total C- 58% 247 D+ 4.5% 264

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 19.2 340 17.6 229
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.11 348 0.15 112
Consistency 0.16 361 0.12 147
Improvement +1.1 131 +5.1 10

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 281 281 280
Results Rating Rank 291 291 291
Conference Record 7 - 11 7 - 11 7 - 11
Conference Finish 7 7 7
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% n/a n/a
#1 Seed 0% n/a n/a
Top 2 Seed 0% n/a n/a
Top 4 Seed 0% n/a n/a
Top 6 Seed 0% n/a n/a
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% n/a n/a
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% n/a n/a
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 0% n/a n/a
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0.0%
First Four0% n/a n/a
First Round0% n/a n/a
Second Round0% n/a n/a
Sweet Sixteen0% n/a n/a
Elite Eight0% n/a n/a
Final Four0% n/a n/a
Championship Game0% n/a n/a
National Champion0% n/a n/a

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 30 - 90 - 13
Quad 410 - 610 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 299 Louisiana W 75 - 64 67% +2  75% 1 - 0 C -0 C+ +2 A- D+ C+ C- -2 C- D B
 Tue, Nov 11 22 @Wisconsin L 55 - 86 1% -19  0% 1 - 1 D -11 F -12 F+ D+ F C+ +1 D F+ A+
 Sat, Nov 15 304 Arkansas Little Rock L 62 - 68 68% -2  33% 1 - 2 F+ -18 F -17 D- F F C- -2 F F A+
 Sat, Nov 22 196 @Indiana St. L 52 - 70 22% -2  60% 1 - 3 F+ -17 F -18 F D F C -1 C- C C+
 Fri, Nov 28 171 Monmouth L 73 - 80 26% -4  17% 1 - 4 D+ -8 C+ +3 B+ F A F -11 F+ F F+
 Sat, Nov 29 326 @Lafayette L 37 - 55 52% -4  21% 1 - 5 F -26 F -36 F F F+ A- +8 A+ F+ D-
 Sun, Nov 30 300 Le Moyne W 96 - 85 56% +0  42% 2 - 5 C+ +2 A+ +21 D+ A+ D F -18 F B- F
 Wed, Dec 3 294 @Evansville L 52 - 64 41% -1  25% 2 - 6 F+ -17 F -23 F F F B+ +6 C+ C A-
 Tue, Dec 9 218 South Dakota St. L 64 - 68 47% -0  54% 2 - 7 D -10 F+ -8 F C A- C- -2 D- D+ B-
 Sun, Dec 14 181 @Campbell L 64 - 69 20% +1  46% 2 - 8 C- -3 F -12 F D- D- A +9 A- A C-
 Sat, Dec 20 96 Miami (OH) L 77 - 86 18% -3  28% 2 - 9 0 - 1 D+ -7 C +0 B- F A+ D- -7 D C- A
 Sat, Jan 3 211 @Buffalo L 72 - 85 25% -14  1% 2 - 10 0 - 2 D- -13 C- -0 F B- C- F -14 F F A-
 Tue, Jan 6 245 Eastern Michigan L 52 - 74 54% -13  20% 2 - 11 0 - 3 F -30 F -13 F+ F A- F -22 F F A+
 Sat, Jan 10 197 @Massachusetts L 71 - 79 22% -3  15% 2 - 12 0 - 4 D+ -7 D+ -3 D+ D- B D+ -4 F A+ C-
 Tue, Jan 13 72 @Akron L 77 - 87 5% -11  0% 2 - 13 0 - 5 C +1 B +7 B C A- D -6 C- C- F
 Fri, Jan 16 227 Ohio W 76 - 71 49% +8  99% 3 - 13 1 - 5 C- -2 C- -0 C- F+ C+ C -1 D+ C B
 Tue, Jan 20 269 @Central Michigan W 68 - 67 35% +5  82% 4 - 13 2 - 5 C- -2 C+ +3 C- F A+ D -5 F C B
 Sat, Jan 24 342 Northern Illinois W 58 - 53 80% +6  97% 5 - 13 3 - 5 D -11 F -13 F F+ B+ B- +3 A+ F D-
 Sat, Jan 31 139 @Toledo L 55 - 73 15% -12  2% 5 - 14 3 - 6 D- -14 F -19 F F D- B +5 C A- A-
 Tue, Feb 3 168 @Bowling Green L 52 - 77 18% -13  0% 5 - 15 3 - 7 F -22 F -14 F D+ B- F -11 F C A+
 Sat, Feb 7 353 @Louisiana Monroe W 73 - 68 67% +8  99% 6 - 15 D+ -7 F+ -9 F C F B- +3 A+ F C+
 Wed, Feb 11 211 Buffalo L 53 - 63 45% -5  3% 6 - 16 3 - 8 F+ -16 F -19 F D- F C+ +1 C+ D+ B
 Sat, Feb 14 147 Kent St. L 68 - 75 32% -6  0% 6 - 17 3 - 9 D -9 F -12 F F B B- +3 D+ A- B
 Tue, Feb 17 227 @Ohio L 57 - 69 27% -6  13% 6 - 18 3 - 10 D- -13 F -10 D- F C+ D+ -4 D+ A D
 Fri, Feb 20 72 Akron L 65 - 78 12% -7  8% 6 - 19 3 - 11 D+ -8 D- -7 C C- D- C -1 B+ A D+
 Tue, Feb 24 197 Massachusetts W 74 - 73 OT 42% -8  10% 7 - 19 4 - 11 C- -4 F+ -8 F D B+ B +4 A+ F C+
 Sat, Feb 28 342 @Northern Illinois W 79 - 43 60% +19  94% 8 - 19 5 - 11 A+ +26 A- +10 B C- A+ A+ +20 A+ A+ D
 Tue, Mar 3 277 @Western Michigan W 74 - 71 OT 37% +2  62% 9 - 19 6 - 11 C -1 D- -7 F+ D+ B B+ +6 C- A D+
 Fri, Mar 6 269 Central Michigan W 85 - 69 58% +11  91% 10 - 19 7 - 11 B- +7 B +7 A D- C- C +0 D C+ C-
Totals 10 - 19 7 - 11 -7 D -7 D+ F+ C+ C +0 D- D+ D+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D D- D- D- F+ 40% 36% 40% C+ D- D F+ D- C D+ D+ D+ C C- C+ C- C- 36% 21% 43% C+ C- D+ C C- B- C+ F C
0.99 50% 32% 30% -6 0 0.89 25% 0.9 .22 17% .28 70% .20 1.09 60% 37% 35% +1 0 1.05 33% 1.0 .34 18% .29 78% .22
Nov
3		 Louisiana C+ C+ F A+ B+ 58% 13% 30% B+ A- D+ C- D+ C+ A+ D- A C- F+ D- A- C- 22% 31% 47% C C- C+ F D B A- A+ A
1.17 61% 0% 58% +8 +2 1.23 29% 1.0 .29 17% .53 68% .36 1.00 64% 44% 29% 0 -3 0.96 26% 1.1 .29 19% .17 56% .10
Nov
11		 Wisconsin F D- F C F 40% 17% 44% A- F+ D+ D D+ F A+ F B+ C+ C- A+ F D+ 37% 2% 61% F+ D F A F+ A+ A+ F A+
0.80 47% 0% 33% -11 +1 0.81 21% 0.9 .18 20% .39 57% .22 1.26 63% 0% 42% +8 +2 1.24 47% 1.0 .47 22% .15 100% .15
Nov
15		 Arkansas Little Rock F D B D+ F+ 41% 11% 48% C+ D- F A+ F F A- D+ B C- F A+ F F 41% 34% 24% D+ F F F F A+ D+ A+ B
0.92 56% 40% 33% -1 +1 1.02 14% 1.5 .21 22% .36 68% .25 1.01 71% 21% 50% +5 -2 1.10 46% 1.5 .69 34% .25 45% .11
Nov
22		 Indiana St. F F A- F F 34% 30% 36% D- F C+ F D F F A F C D+ F B+ C- 42% 8% 50% C C- F A+ C C+ A F C-
0.80 33% 50% 21% -12 -2 0.75 34% 0.7 .23 20% .10 80% .08 1.08 65% 75% 29% +2 +2 1.10 35% 0.7 .26 20% .17 100% .17
Nov
28		 Monmouth C+ B- C- A+ A- 33% 20% 47% D+ B+ F+ F F A F F+ F F B- C F F+ 39% 27% 35% C- F+ F D- F F+ D A- C-
1.10 61% 36% 42% +7 0 1.15 24% 0.7 .16 15% .11 67% .07 1.20 53% 38% 47% +5 -1 1.10 38% 1.2 .44 14% .33 68% .23
Nov
29		 Lafayette F F C F F 31% 18% 51% C+ F D+ F F F+ D- F F+ A- A A+ A+ A+ 43% 28% 30% A- A+ C- F F+ D- F F F
0.60 29% 38% 13% -25 0 0.51 28% 0.4 .12 18% .24 67% .16 0.89 45% 15% 14% -21 -1 0.60 26% 1.2 .32 13% .37 85% .32
Nov
30		 Le Moyne A+ C- F C+ D+ 35% 16% 49% C D+ A+ A+ A+ D A+ D+ A+ F F A F F 25% 15% 60% B F D A+ B- F D+ F F
1.42 56% 13% 36% -3 0 0.96 51% 1.5 .74 16% .50 71% .35 1.26 75% 29% 48% +16 0 1.33 28% 0.7 .20 15% .35 85% .30
Dec
3		 Evansville F F F F F 31% 25% 44% D+ F F F F F C- D C- B+ F F+ A+ C+ 26% 23% 51% C C+ D- A+ C A- F+ D F
0.77 47% 25% 29% -10 -1 0.79 22% 0.4 .10 21% .26 71% .19 0.95 75% 45% 25% -1 -1 0.98 26% 0.9 .24 22% .35 78% .27
Dec
9		 South Dakota St. F+ B- F F F 39% 16% 45% C+ F B F+ C A- B+ D- B- C- C B F D- 49% 18% 33% D D- D C+ D+ B- B+ C- B
1.01 63% 25% 18% -11 +1 0.82 33% 0.9 .30 11% .35 70% .25 1.07 58% 33% 44% +4 +1 1.12 33% 1.0 .33 17% .21 73% .15
Dec
14		 Campbell F F A+ F F 47% 26% 26% C F C F D- D- B+ D B- A D- C+ A+ B+ 35% 24% 41% A+ A- F A+ A C- F A+ C
0.92 44% 50% 14% -11 0 0.79 32% 0.8 .26 20% .36 70% .25 0.99 65% 33% 20% -7 -1 0.86 42% 0.6 .24 17% .50 55% .28
Dec
20		 Miami (OH) C A- A+ D+ B 35% 30% 35% D B- F F F A+ C+ B- C+ D- B A+ F D- 33% 21% 46% B D B F C- A F+ F F
1.10 68% 50% 32% +6 -1 1.11 13% 0.8 .09 10% .29 78% .22 1.23 56% 20% 55% +10 0 1.21 20% 1.4 .28 20% .39 95% .38
Jan
3		 Buffalo C- F F B F 31% 16% 53% D+ F B C+ B- C- A+ A A+ F F F F F 43% 9% 48% F+ F F F F A- C- F F
1.11 43% 29% 38% -3 0 0.96 37% 1.0 .37 19% .44 83% .36 1.31 68% 50% 43% +12 +2 1.30 35% 1.8 .61 20% .35 94% .33
Jan
6		 Eastern Michigan F F D D+ F 43% 20% 36% C+ F+ F F F A- C- A+ B F C- F F F 36% 17% 48% F+ F F C F A+ A+ F A
0.90 42% 33% 31% -9 0 0.84 21% 0.3 .06 12% .30 87% .26 1.29 60% 57% 55% +19 0 1.40 48% 1.0 .48 24% .14 83% .11
Jan
10		 Massachusetts D+ D F B D 42% 15% 42% B- D+ F B+ D- B F+ C F+ D+ F B+ D- F 33% 20% 47% C+ F B- A+ A+ C- F D+ F
1.03 55% 25% 36% -2 +1 1.00 18% 1.2 .21 15% .31 72% .22 1.15 87% 33% 38% +11 0 1.24 29% 0.4 .13 17% .51 69% .35
Jan
13		 Akron B C+ A+ D- B 40% 14% 46% B- B F+ A+ C A- B+ A A D C- F C- C 38% 7% 55% F+ C- B+ F C- F C F D
1.12 60% 71% 30% +3 +1 1.10 23% 1.3 .29 15% .32 79% .26 1.26 62% 75% 35% +5 +2 1.16 27% 1.6 .42 12% .26 88% .23
Jan
16		 Ohio C- C- C+ C- C- 36% 23% 41% D C- D- F+ F+ C+ A+ A A+ C D+ F B+ F+ 33% 39% 29% A+ D+ C C+ C B D+ F D-
1.14 56% 40% 33% -1 0 1.00 28% 0.9 .25 15% .55 81% .44 1.06 63% 53% 29% +5 -3 1.06 28% 1.0 .28 18% .35 79% .27
Jan
20		 Central Michigan C+ C F A- C 41% 22% 37% D+ C- C F F A+ F B- F D A+ C- F F 33% 27% 40% C+ F F+ A C B A- A+ A+
1.15 60% 27% 39% +1 0 1.04 35% 0.7 .24 8% .20 73% .15 1.14 33% 42% 61% +9 -1 1.18 34% 0.9 .31 20% .21 50% .11
Jan
24		 Northern Illinois F C+ F F F 49% 12% 40% B F F A+ F+ B+ B- F D+ B- D+ F A+ A+ 27% 18% 56% A- A+ C F F D- C- F D-
0.97 62% 20% 24% -6 +2 0.93 17% 1.4 .24 13% .35 61% .21 0.89 58% 50% 8% -19 0 0.62 29% 1.3 .38 18% .35 76% .27
Jan
31		 Toledo F F C F F 43% 18% 39% C F D- F F D- A+ C+ A+ B F C+ B- C 33% 24% 43% C+ C A C+ A- A- C F D+
0.81 42% 38% 24% -13 +1 0.77 28% 0.4 .10 21% .50 70% .35 1.08 69% 42% 33% +4 -1 1.08 21% 1.0 .21 19% .26 86% .22
Feb
3		 Bowling Green F C- D+ F F 34% 23% 43% D F F A+ D+ B- C F F F F A+ F F 42% 21% 37% B+ F D- B+ C A+ C F F+
0.83 56% 36% 15% -13 -1 0.74 16% 1.5 .24 16% .32 47% .15 1.23 78% 22% 56% +17 0 1.37 32% 0.7 .23 22% .31 93% .29
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
7		 Louisiana Monroe F+ F A- D+ F 45% 24% 31% D+ F C+ C C F A- A A B- F B+ A+ A+ 29% 31% 40% A A+ D F F C+ F F F
1.05 45% 50% 33% -3 0 0.96 37% 1.1 .42 20% .33 78% .25 0.98 67% 31% 12% -13 -2 0.71 28% 1.3 .38 17% .63 83% .52
Feb
11		 Buffalo F F F D F 45% 11% 43% B F C- F D- F F B F+ C+ D+ C- B B- 43% 12% 45% D- C+ F+ B D+ B D+ F F
0.90 45% 20% 32% -10 +2 0.86 31% 0.7 .23 22% .19 78% .15 1.06 61% 40% 32% 0 +1 1.05 32% 1.0 .32 19% .35 88% .31
Feb
14		 Kent St. F F F D+ F 49% 9% 42% A F F D- F B A+ C+ A+ B- B F D D+ 40% 12% 48% D- D+ A- B+ A- B D+ B+ C
0.94 42% 0% 32% -13 +2 0.81 20% 0.9 .18 14% .48 73% .35 1.03 50% 50% 38% +1 +1 1.06 29% 0.9 .26 21% .40 70% .28
Feb
17		 Ohio F D+ F D- F+ 53% 18% 29% B D- D+ F F C+ D- F F D+ C+ F+ C- D+ 36% 23% 41% C D+ C A+ A D F F F
0.95 54% 25% 31% -6 +1 0.93 31% 0.6 .19 15% .28 57% .16 1.15 56% 50% 33% +2 0 1.05 27% 0.7 .18 13% .41 81% .33
Feb
20		 Akron D- F F A+ C- 40% 13% 48% B- C D C+ C- D- F D- F C D B- A+ A 46% 14% 40% D B+ C- A+ A D+ C B- C
0.97 37% 17% 48% -1 +1 1.02 27% 1.0 .27 21% .17 67% .11 1.16 65% 38% 26% -2 +1 1.02 34% 0.8 .29 15% .26 73% .19
Feb
24		 Massachusetts F+ F+ D- F F 42% 15% 42% B- F B+ F D B+ D+ A+ C+ B A A+ A+ A+ 42% 20% 38% D+ A+ F D- F C+ B+ F C
1.01 52% 33% 24% -10 +1 0.85 34% 0.7 .23 14% .35 82% .28 0.99 48% 18% 24% -14 0 0.75 42% 1.3 .53 19% .27 81% .22
Feb
28		 Northern Illinois A- C+ F A+ B 44% 13% 43% B- B D A- C- A+ F A F A+ A+ B+ A+ A+ 35% 25% 40% A A+ A+ B- A+ D F F F
1.26 63% 29% 43% +7 +1 1.19 26% 1.3 .32 11% .18 80% .14 0.68 21% 30% 25% -20 -1 0.60 11% 0.8 .09 19% .45 74% .33
Mar
3		 Western Michigan D- D- F C- F 65% 13% 22% A F+ F+ A+ D+ B C- F D- B+ A+ F F D 31% 39% 31% A+ C- A+ C+ A D+ F D- F
1.03 53% 14% 33% -7 +3 0.95 22% 1.4 .30 11% .30 58% .17 0.99 40% 47% 40% +1 -3 0.98 18% 1.0 .18 15% .40 79% .31
Mar
6		 Central Michigan B A+ F B- A 45% 12% 43% B A F B+ D- C- C F+ D+ C D+ F A D+ 50% 28% 22% D D C- B C+ C- C A+ B+
1.26 83% 17% 36% +10 +2 1.25 26% 1.3 .33 18% .34 63% .22 1.02 60% 50% 27% +2 0 1.06 30% 1.0 .30 18% .27 53% .14



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 100.0 100.0 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 100.0 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11 100.0% 100.0
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%