Ball St.
Mid-American
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -7.6 #294
Expected Predictive Rating -9.0 #315
Pace 62.0 #345
Improvement +3.7 #35

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #294 D- D- C+ C- C
Defense #276 D+ D+ C+ C+ C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #204 1.04 #305 -2.7 #279
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #179 0.65 #323 -1.1 #238
Three Pointers 42% #154 0.90 #319 -1.9 #246
1st FG Attempt 0.91 #330 -5.7 #332
Freethrows 0.28 #258 72% #208 0.20 #246
Second Chance 25.9% #305 0.85 #359 0.22 #350
Turnovers 15.4% #117
Total Offense -4.5 #294

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #292 1.23 #279 +0.9 #141
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #159 0.77 #194 -0.3 #205
Three Pointers 44% #84 1.14 #326 -4.3 #332
1st FG Attempt 1.09 #294 -3.7 #295
Freethrows 0.26 #48 77% #354 0.20 #102
Second Chance 34.7% #320 1.06 #212 0.37 #299
Turnovers 17.6% #103
Total Defense -3.1 #276

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.1% #200 -0.6% #112
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -11.0% #339 7.9% #317
Possession Length 19.5 #347 16.7 #70
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.11 #334 0.14 #88
Improvement +3.2 #39 +0.5 #160

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.8 16.0
.500 or above 0.1% 0.6% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 7.1% 19.1% 4.7%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 14.9% 5.0% 16.8%
First Four0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
First Round0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Toledo (Away) - 16.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 31 - 81 - 12
Quad 48 - 89 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 314 Louisiana W 75 - 64 67% +2  1 - 0 -1 +5 B+ D+ C -6 D D B-
 Tue, Nov 11 38 @Wisconsin L 55 - 86 2% -19  1 - 1 -15 -10 D- D+ F -5 D- F A+
 Sat, Nov 15 279 Arkansas Little Rock L 62 - 68 59% -2  1 - 2 -16 -13 F F+ F+ -3 D- F A+
 Sat, Nov 22 195 @Indiana St. L 52 - 70 21% -2  1 - 3 -17 -16 F D- F -3 C- C B-
 Fri, Nov 28 185 Monmouth L 73 - 80 29% -4  1 - 4 -9 +5 B+ F+ B+ -15 F+ F+ F+
 Sat, Nov 29 316 @Lafayette L 37 - 55 45% -4  1 - 5 -24 -33 F F F+ +6 A+ D D-
 Sun, Nov 30 274 Le Moyne W 96 - 85 45% +0  2 - 5 +5 +23 C- A+ D+ -18 F B D-
 Wed, Dec 3 270 @Evansville L 52 - 64 33% -1  2 - 6 -15 -17 F F F+ +1 C- C+ B-
 Tue, Dec 9 171 South Dakota St. L 64 - 68 36% -0  2 - 7 -8 -5 F C- A+ -4 D+ C- C+
 Sun, Dec 14 206 @Campbell L 64 - 69 23% +1  2 - 8 -5 -10 F F+ D- +5 B+ A C-
 Sat, Dec 20 91 Miami (OH) L 77 - 86 16% -3  2 - 9 0 - 1 -6 +3 C+ F A+ -9 D+ C A+
 Sat, Jan 3 184 @Buffalo L 72 - 85 20% -14  2 - 10 0 - 2 -12 +2 F+ C+ D+ -15 F F A-
 Tue, Jan 6 241 Eastern Michigan L 52 - 74 49% -13  2 - 11 0 - 3 -29 -11 F+ F A -23 F F A+
 Sat, Jan 10 170 @Massachusetts L 71 - 79 18% -3  2 - 12 0 - 4 -6 +1 C D B- -7 F A+ C-
 Tue, Jan 13 62 @Akron L 77 - 87 5% -11  2 - 13 0 - 5 +2 +8 B- D A- -6 C B- D-
 Fri, Jan 16 214 Ohio W 76 - 71 45% +8  3 - 13 1 - 5 -1 +4 C- D- B- -5 C- C B-
 Tue, Jan 20 304 @Central Michigan W 68 - 67 41% +5  4 - 13 2 - 5 -4 +5 C F A+ -9 F C- B
 Sat, Jan 24 310 Northern Illinois W 58 - 53 66% +6  5 - 13 3 - 5 -7 -9 F+ F+ A- +3 A+ D- D-
 Sat, Jan 31 165 @Toledo L 68 - 78 17%
 Tue, Feb 3 147 @Bowling Green L 65 - 76 14%
 Sat, Feb 7 361 @Louisiana Monroe W 75 - 70 69%
 Wed, Feb 11 184 Buffalo L 70 - 73 40%
 Sat, Feb 14 142 Kent St. L 71 - 77 29%
 Tue, Feb 17 214 @Ohio L 68 - 75 24%
 Sat, Feb 21 62 Akron L 70 - 84 10%
 Tue, Feb 24 170 Massachusetts L 70 - 74 37%
 Sat, Feb 28 310 @Northern Illinois L 68 - 70 43%
 Tue, Mar 3 272 @Western Michigan L 69 - 73 35%
 Fri, Mar 6 304 Central Michigan W 71 - 67 64%
Totals 9 - 20 6 - 12 -8 -4 D- D- C+ -3 D+ D+ C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.2 4th
5th 0.3 1.7 0.7 0.0 2.7 5th
6th 0.1 2.3 2.1 0.2 4.7 6th
7th 0.0 2.1 5.0 0.9 8.0 7th
8th 0.0 1.5 8.2 3.2 0.1 13.0 8th
9th 1.4 10.6 8.3 0.5 20.8 9th
10th 0.2 7.2 10.1 1.5 0.0 19.1 10th
11th 2.8 9.5 2.5 0.0 14.9 11th
12th 0.4 6.0 3.3 0.2 9.9 12th
13th 2.6 2.7 0.3 5.5 13th
Total 3.0 11.7 21.7 25.0 20.3 11.3 5.0 1.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0%
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0% 0.0
12-6 0.1% 0.1
11-7 0.4% 2.8% 2.8% 15.0 0.0 0.4
10-8 1.6% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 1.6
9-9 5.0% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 5.0
8-10 11.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 11.3
7-11 20.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 20.2
6-12 25.0% 25.0
5-13 21.7% 21.7
4-14 11.7% 11.7
3-15 3.0% 3.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 15.9 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.2%