Umass Lowell
America East
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -9.4 #317
Expected Predictive Rating -10.3 #325
Pace 72.1 #91
Improvement -1.2 #241

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #304 D+ C F+ C- C
Defense #302 D+ D+ D- C+ D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #86 1.04 #309 -0.5 #195
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #133 0.83 #83 +1.6 #96
Three Pointers 35% #304 0.97 #241 -3.7 #307
1st FG Attempt 0.97 #253 -2.7 #254
Freethrows 0.32 #136 64% #361 0.20 #231
Second Chance 29.9% #209 1.03 #198 0.31 #195
Turnovers 20.1% #349
Total Offense -4.9 #304

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 46% #16 1.18 #207 -4.9 #334
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #185 0.84 #309 -0.8 #246
Three Pointers 33% #352 1.13 #318 +2.0 #113
1st FG Attempt 1.09 #299 -3.8 #301
Freethrows 0.28 #107 75% #308 0.21 #147
Second Chance 33.4% #294 1.11 #279 0.37 #302
Turnovers 13.3% #338
Total Defense -4.4 #302

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.0% #198 1.2% #278
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -5.2% #265 6.2% #295
Possession Length 17.6 #201 16.0 #17
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 #225 0.19 #246
Improvement -3.1 #339 +1.9 #74

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.1% 8.4% 6.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 1.7% 3.6% 0.4%
.500 or above in Conference 58.9% 77.0% 47.1%
Conference Champion 1.5% 3.1% 0.5%
Last Place in Conference 1.3% 0.3% 1.9%
First Four6.8% 7.8% 6.2%
First Round3.7% 4.6% 3.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: New Hampshire (Away) - 39.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 10 - 4
Quad 30 - 50 - 9
Quad 410 - 1011 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 9 @Connecticut L 47 - 110 1% -42  0 - 1 -40 -16 F D+ F -20 F F D
 Mon, Nov 10 333 New Haven L 67 - 73 67% +1  0 - 2 -20 -9 F A+ D+ -11 F+ F+ C
 Thu, Nov 13 168 @Columbia L 72 - 86 14% -1  0 - 3 -12 +0 B- D+ F -12 D- D- B+
 Sun, Nov 16 68 @Wake Forest L 75 - 109 4% -15  0 - 4 -23 +2 B D- C -22 F+ F F
 Wed, Nov 19 126 @Bradley L 77 - 87 10% +0  0 - 5 -5 +9 C C+ C -15 F F C+
 Sat, Nov 22 228 @St. Peter's L 66 - 68 21% -2  0 - 6 -3 -6 A- D F +3 A- F C-
 Wed, Nov 26 334 @Stonehill W 75 - 64 45% +5  1 - 6 +3 +5 D+ C+ C+ -1 B+ C- F
 Sat, Dec 6 170 @Massachusetts L 60 - 80 14% -8  1 - 7 -18 -16 D- D+ F -0 C- B C-
 Sat, Dec 13 178 @Quinnipiac L 71 - 75 15% +1  1 - 8 -2 -4 A- F F +2 B F+ D
 Tue, Dec 16 277 Sacred Heart W 87 - 82 51% -0  2 - 8 -5 +3 C- C- B- -8 F C+ C-
 Sun, Dec 21 278 @Boston University L 76 - 88 29% -9  2 - 9 -16 +3 B- B- F -20 F F C-
 Mon, Dec 29 23 @Iowa L 62 - 90 1% -19  2 - 10 -9 +4 B C D- -14 D C+ F
 Sat, Jan 3 309 Albany W 83 - 71 58% +10  3 - 10 1 - 0 +0 +8 D+ A+ C+ -7 B- F+ F+
 Thu, Jan 8 344 @Bryant W 77 - 63 48% +6  4 - 10 2 - 0 +5 +8 B- B+ F+ -2 C- C F
 Sat, Jan 10 362 @Binghamton W 73 - 68 65% +6  5 - 10 3 - 0 -8 -5 D D F+ -3 D+ C+ D+
 Thu, Jan 15 338 NJIT L 64 - 73 68% -10  5 - 11 3 - 1 -23 -14 F D F+ -9 D+ A+ F
 Thu, Jan 22 199 Vermont L 68 - 77 35% -5  5 - 12 3 - 2 -15 -6 F B+ F -8 D A F+
 Sat, Jan 24 263 @Maryland Baltimore Co. L 56 - 79 25% -12  5 - 13 3 - 3 -25 -16 F F+ C- -10 C- F+ D
 Thu, Jan 29 319 @New Hampshire L 72 - 75 40%
 Sat, Jan 31 335 @Maine L 67 - 68 45%
 Thu, Feb 5 338 @NJIT L 74 - 75 47%
 Sat, Feb 7 309 @Albany L 72 - 76 36%
 Thu, Feb 12 344 Bryant W 73 - 67 69%
 Thu, Feb 19 319 New Hampshire W 75 - 72 61%
 Sat, Feb 21 362 Binghamton W 78 - 68 82%
 Thu, Feb 26 199 @Vermont L 68 - 78 18%
 Sat, Feb 28 263 Maryland Baltimore Co. L 75 - 76 46%
 Tue, Mar 3 335 @Maine L 67 - 68 46%
Totals 10 - 18 8 - 8 -9 -5 D+ C F+ -4 D+ D+ D-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected America East Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.7 0.6 0.1 1.5 1st
2nd 0.0 1.2 4.4 3.0 0.6 0.0 9.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.9 9.5 6.5 1.1 0.0 19.0 3rd
4th 1.1 9.8 6.8 0.7 18.3 4th
5th 0.3 6.5 9.0 0.9 0.0 16.7 5th
6th 0.1 3.4 9.6 1.8 0.0 14.9 6th
7th 0.1 1.9 6.7 2.9 0.1 11.6 7th
8th 0.1 1.4 3.8 2.9 0.2 8.3 8th
9th 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 9th
Total 0.2 1.7 5.9 13.2 20.1 22.6 18.5 11.7 4.8 1.3 0.2 Total



America East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3 76.7% 0.1    0.1 0.0
12-4 46.8% 0.6    0.2 0.3 0.1
11-5 14.5% 0.7    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0
10-6 1.1% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.1
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 1.5% 1.5 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3 0.2% 20.0% 20.0% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.1
12-4 1.3% 20.4% 20.4% 15.9 0.0 0.2 1.0
11-5 4.8% 15.1% 15.1% 16.0 0.7 4.1
10-6 11.7% 10.9% 10.9% 16.0 1.3 10.4
9-7 18.5% 8.4% 8.4% 16.0 1.6 16.9
8-8 22.6% 6.9% 6.9% 16.0 1.6 21.0
7-9 20.1% 5.3% 5.3% 16.0 1.1 19.0
6-10 13.2% 3.8% 3.8% 16.0 0.5 12.7
5-11 5.9% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.1 5.7
4-12 1.7% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.0 1.7
3-13 0.2% 0.2
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 7.1% 7.1% 0.0% 16.0 92.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%