Vermont
America East
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.7#185
Expected Predictive Rating-0.7#182
Pace62.7#337
Improvement-1.1#256

Offense
Total Offense+2.0#120
First Shot+4.9#61
After Offensive Rebound-2.9#339
Layup/Dunks+0.0#177
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#194
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.3#28
Freethrows-1.2#257
Improvement-2.0#321

Defense
Total Defense-3.6#293
First Shot-5.2#334
After Offensive Rebounds+1.6#78
Layups/Dunks-1.4#234
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#169
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.4#299
Freethrows-0.9#238
Improvement+0.9#114
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 43.7% 45.7% 37.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.2 15.1 15.5
.500 or above 95.0% 96.7% 89.9%
.500 or above in Conference 97.6% 98.0% 96.2%
Conference Champion 64.6% 66.8% 57.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.2% 0.5%
First Four9.7% 8.7% 12.9%
First Round39.1% 41.6% 31.7%
Second Round0.8% 0.9% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Merrimack (Home) - 74.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 16 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 10 - 1
Quad 32 - 42 - 6
Quad 418 - 521 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Sun, Nov 9 219 @Brown W 89-84 2OT 45%     1 - 0 +4.6 +7.3 -3.5
  Sat, Nov 15 211 @Northeastern W 85-74 44%     2 - 0 +10.8 +14.4 -3.6
  Tue, Nov 18 209 @Buffalo L 90-94 44%     2 - 1 -4.1 +10.7 -14.7
  Mon, Nov 24 108 Liberty L 73-79 30%     2 - 2 -2.2 +3.8 -6.2
  Tue, Nov 25 116 Rhode Island L 65-80 32%     2 - 3 -11.7 +1.0 -14.2
  Wed, Nov 26 255 Princeton W 79-74 64%     3 - 3 -0.3 +12.9 -12.7
  Sun, Nov 30 79 Yale L 74-77 28%     3 - 4 +1.4 +8.0 -7.0
  Wed, Dec 3 157 @Oregon St. L 58-80 32%     3 - 5 -18.9 -5.8 -15.8
  Sat, Dec 6 293 @Pepperdine W 65-56 60%     4 - 5 +4.7 +0.5 +5.4
  Sun, Dec 14 273 Merrimack W 72-65 75%    
  Wed, Dec 17 164 Siena W 70-68 56%    
  Sat, Dec 20 170 Iona W 77-75 58%    
  Tue, Dec 30 255 @Princeton W 70-69 52%    
  Sat, Jan 3 335 @New Hampshire W 73-67 71%    
  Thu, Jan 8 356 Binghamton W 78-63 93%    
  Thu, Jan 15 336 Maine W 72-60 87%    
  Mon, Jan 19 329 @Albany W 76-71 69%    
  Thu, Jan 22 304 @Umass Lowell W 76-73 61%    
  Sat, Jan 24 297 @Bryant W 71-68 60%    
  Thu, Jan 29 285 Maryland Baltimore Co. W 76-68 77%    
  Sat, Jan 31 352 NJIT W 77-63 90%    
  Thu, Feb 5 336 @Maine W 69-63 71%    
  Sat, Feb 7 335 New Hampshire W 76-64 86%    
  Thu, Feb 12 356 @Binghamton W 75-66 80%    
  Sat, Feb 14 297 Bryant W 74-65 78%    
  Thu, Feb 19 285 @Maryland Baltimore Co. W 73-71 58%    
  Sat, Feb 21 352 @NJIT W 74-66 77%    
  Thu, Feb 26 304 Umass Lowell W 79-70 79%    
  Tue, Mar 3 329 Albany W 79-68 84%    
Projected Record 19 - 10 12 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected America East Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.8 4.9 12.0 17.0 16.0 10.3 3.6 64.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 4.1 7.0 5.2 1.7 0.2 18.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.4 3.7 1.7 0.3 0.0 8.3 3rd
4th 0.1 1.1 2.0 0.7 0.1 4.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 1.1 0.4 0.0 2.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.1 6th
7th 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 9th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.4 2.9 5.4 9.4 13.6 17.4 18.8 16.2 10.3 3.6 Total



America East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 3.6    3.6
15-1 100.0% 10.3    10.2 0.1
14-2 98.7% 16.0    15.2 0.7
13-3 90.8% 17.0    13.9 3.1 0.1
12-4 68.7% 12.0    7.1 4.3 0.5 0.0
11-5 35.7% 4.9    1.5 2.3 0.9 0.2 0.0
10-6 8.8% 0.8    0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0
9-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 64.6% 64.6 51.6 10.7 1.9 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 3.6% 68.2% 68.2% 13.3 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.3 0.0 1.1
15-1 10.3% 61.3% 61.3% 14.3 0.1 1.0 2.6 2.2 0.4 4.0
14-2 16.2% 54.6% 54.6% 14.9 0.0 0.4 2.1 4.4 2.1 7.3
13-3 18.8% 48.1% 48.1% 15.3 0.0 0.9 4.1 4.0 9.7
12-4 17.4% 41.6% 41.6% 15.7 0.0 0.2 2.2 4.9 10.2
11-5 13.6% 35.7% 35.7% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.8 4.0 8.8
10-6 9.4% 29.2% 29.2% 15.9 0.0 0.2 2.5 6.6
9-7 5.4% 25.3% 25.3% 16.0 0.0 1.3 4.1
8-8 2.9% 20.9% 20.9% 16.0 0.0 0.6 2.3
7-9 1.4% 13.9% 13.9% 16.0 0.2 1.2
6-10 0.6% 8.8% 8.8% 16.0 0.1 0.6
5-11 0.2% 8.6% 8.6% 16.0 0.0 0.2
4-12 0.1% 8.7% 8.7% 16.0 0.0 0.1
3-13 0.0% 0.0
2-14 0.0% 0.0
1-15 0.0% 0.0
0-16
Total 100% 43.7% 43.7% 0.0% 15.2 0.1 0.6 2.2 6.4 14.2 20.2 56.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.8% 100.0% 12.2 10.1 57.9 29.4 2.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%