Bucknell
Patriot League
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -9.4 #318
Expected Predictive Rating -8.5 #298
Pace 68.5 #203
Improvement -3.7 #335

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #349 F F C F D+
Defense #219 F C- C C C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 29% #358 1.02 #324 -7.7 #357
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #198 0.44 #365 -3.5 #335
Three Pointers 52% #16 0.92 #295 +3.0 #86
1st FG Attempt 0.85 #355 -8.2 #356
Freethrows 12.0 #357 70% #259 8.4 #358
Second Chance 23.2% #348 0.96 #276 0.22 #347
Turnovers 16.7% #186
Total Offense -7.9 #349

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #231 1.22 #256 +0.0 #175
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #159 0.92 #352 -1.7 #293
Three Pointers 42% #144 1.14 #335 -3.4 #312
1st FG Attempt 1.12 #330 -5.0 #327
Freethrows 17.2 #185 73% #178 12.5 #181
Second Chance 33.2% #278 1.02 #149 0.34 #236
Turnovers 16.5% #191
Total Defense -1.4 #219

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.2% #267 -0.4% #134
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -15.0% #358 10.9% #343
Possession Length 18.6 #309 17.0 #145
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.10 #352 0.17 #164
Improvement -4.7 #361 +1.0 #119

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.4% 3.9% 2.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 2.9% 4.1% 0.7%
.500 or above in Conference 38.1% 46.8% 22.5%
Conference Champion 1.6% 2.2% 0.5%
Last Place in Conference 12.4% 7.0% 22.0%
First Four3.0% 3.5% 2.2%
First Round1.8% 2.1% 1.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Lafayette (Home) - 64.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 30 - 60 - 10
Quad 411 - 1112 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 271 Delaware W 78 - 70 50% -4  1 - 0 -1 +1 F A- F -3 A+ F C-
 Fri, Nov 7 297 @Mount St. Mary's W 73 - 62 33% -1  2 - 0 +6 +5 B- F A+ +1 C+ A B+
 Tue, Nov 11 221 @Princeton L 63 - 73 19% -12  2 - 1 -10 -6 C- F F -4 D D+ C
 Fri, Nov 14 110 Hofstra L 77 - 83 16% -7  2 - 2 -5 +0 C A- F -5 F A+ C
 Mon, Nov 17 88 @Pittsburgh L 50 - 84 5% -20  2 - 3 -24 -15 F F F -12 F F A+
 Thu, Nov 20 15 @St. John's L 49 - 97 1% -21  2 - 4 -28 -18 F F F -6 D- A+ A
 Mon, Nov 24 131 Bowling Green L 66 - 71 15% -12  2 - 5 -3 -4 C- D- F +1 C C A+
 Wed, Nov 26 199 Buffalo L 71 - 73 25% -10  2 - 6 -4 +4 C+ C- D -9 D A+ D-
 Sun, Nov 30 193 Cornell L 72 - 101 34% -21  2 - 7 -34 -14 F C F -19 F F A+
 Wed, Dec 3 67 @Akron L 77 - 97 4% -16  2 - 8 -9 +7 C+ F A+ -16 F B- F
 Sat, Dec 6 277 Maryland Baltimore Co. L 66 - 73 51% -4  2 - 9 -17 -7 F F D+ -10 F C B+
 Tue, Dec 9 348 @Rider W 51 - 38 51% +6  3 - 9 +3 -16 F F F +22 B- A+ A+
 Sat, Dec 20 22 Iowa L 39 - 94 2% -23  3 - 10 -39 -23 D+ F F -20 F F C-
 Wed, Dec 31 310 @Holy Cross L 58 - 65 36% -7  3 - 11 0 - 1 -13 -10 F F F -3 D- C B-
 Sat, Jan 3 313 Lehigh W 72 - 65 60% -8  4 - 11 1 - 1 -5 -9 F C+ C +3 B- F A+
 Wed, Jan 7 200 @Navy L 55 - 76 17% -16  4 - 12 1 - 2 -20 -11 F F F -10 F F A
 Sat, Jan 10 336 Loyola Maryland W 70 - 67 68% -9  5 - 12 2 - 2 -11 -10 F F F -1 F A+ A+
 Wed, Jan 14 326 Lafayette W 71 - 67 64%
 Sat, Jan 17 215 @Colgate L 66 - 75 19%
 Wed, Jan 21 330 Army W 74 - 70 66%
 Sat, Jan 24 336 @Loyola Maryland L 71 - 72 44%
 Mon, Jan 26 326 @Lafayette L 68 - 70 42%
 Sat, Jan 31 256 Boston University L 70 - 71 46%
 Wed, Feb 4 239 @American L 66 - 74 23%
 Sat, Feb 7 215 Colgate L 69 - 72 38%
 Mon, Feb 9 200 Navy L 65 - 69 35%
 Sat, Feb 14 256 @Boston University L 67 - 74 26%
 Wed, Feb 18 239 American L 69 - 71 43%
 Sun, Feb 22 310 Holy Cross W 69 - 67 59%
 Wed, Feb 25 330 @Army L 71 - 73 44%
 Sat, Feb 28 313 @Lehigh L 67 - 70 38%
Totals 11 - 20 8 - 10 -9 -8 F F C -1 F C- C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.5 1.7 0.6 0.1 4.3 2nd
3rd 0.4 2.8 3.1 0.9 0.1 7.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 4.0 5.3 1.5 0.1 11.4 4th
5th 0.4 4.2 7.6 2.4 0.1 14.8 5th
6th 0.3 3.7 8.4 3.4 0.3 16.0 6th
7th 0.1 2.7 8.1 4.5 0.3 15.7 7th
8th 0.2 1.9 6.2 4.4 0.4 13.1 8th
9th 0.2 1.4 4.2 3.7 0.6 0.0 10.0 9th
10th 0.2 1.1 2.2 2.0 0.5 0.0 6.0 10th
Total 0.2 1.3 3.8 8.3 13.3 17.2 18.0 15.8 11.1 6.4 3.2 1.3 0.3 0.0 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-4 77.2% 0.2    0.2 0.1
13-5 51.3% 0.7    0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 16.3% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
11-7 1.7% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.6% 1.6 0.5 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.0% 0.0 0.0
14-4 0.3% 10.5% 10.5% 16.0 0.0 0.3
13-5 1.3% 14.9% 14.9% 16.0 0.0 0.2 1.1
12-6 3.2% 11.5% 11.5% 15.9 0.0 0.3 2.9
11-7 6.4% 6.8% 6.8% 16.0 0.4 5.9
10-8 11.1% 5.5% 5.5% 16.0 0.6 10.5
9-9 15.8% 4.5% 4.5% 16.0 0.7 15.0
8-10 18.0% 2.8% 2.8% 16.0 0.5 17.5
7-11 17.2% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.3 17.0
6-12 13.3% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 13.1
5-13 8.3% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 8.2
4-14 3.8% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 3.7
3-15 1.3% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 1.3
2-16 0.2% 0.2
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 3.4% 3.4% 0.0% 16.0 96.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%