Central Connecticut St.
Northeast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.

Predictive Rating -8.3 302
Results Rating -5.2 248
Consistency 0.18 311
Pace 64.4 290
Improvement -2.9 295

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- 244 C- D+ C D+ F
Defense D 325 C- C- F+ C+ D-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 31% 346 C+ 60% 118 -4.0 319
2 Pt. Jumpers 52% 44 C 39% 156 +4.8 18
Three Pointers 36% 276 C 34% 169 -2.1 257
Shot Selection/Accuracy F -2.1 355 C+ +0.9 130
1st FG Attempt C- 1.00 210
Second Chance D 26.1% 301 C- 1.00 228 D+ 0.26 291
Opponents' Steals D+ 10.3% 267
Other Turnovers B- 6.5% 86
Turnovers C 16.8% 184
Freethrows D- 0.26 324 B+ 77% 21 D+ 0.20 268
Total Offense C- -2.7 244

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C+ 50% 142 B- 9.2% 80
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D+ 20% 243 B- 3.6% 73
Three Pointers D+ 79% 282 F 2.2% 357
Total D+ 50% 305 B- 4.8% 92

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% 78 C+ 56% 117 +1.6 229
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% 356 D+ 41% 284 -2.3 25
Three Pointers 44% 99 D+ 36% 255 +2.4 295
Shot Selection/Accuracy D- +1.2 354 C +0.5 196
1st FG Attempt C- 1.05 236
Second Chance C- 31.6% 240 C 1.03 172 C- 0.32 224
Turnovers from Steals D 7.6% 314
Other Turnovers F 4.9% 361
Turnovers F+ 12.6% 357
Freethrows B 0.27 66 F 81% 364 C+ 0.21 139
Total Defense D -5.7 325

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C 49% 190 C 11.7% 147
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 28% 236 B- 6.5% 80
Three Pointers D+ 88% 296 C+ 1.1% 115
Total D+ 60% 279 C+ 6.4% 119

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.6 309 17.2 162
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.10 352 0.16 145
Consistency 0.16 356 0.16 353
Improvement +0.3 175 -3.2 323

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 314 302 280
Results Rating Rank 278 254 208
Conference Record 11 - 5 12 - 4 12 - 4
Conference Finish 2 2 2
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 16
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 17% 18% 15%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four14% 14% 14%
First Round9% 10% 7%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: St. Francis (PA) (Home) - 82.2% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 00 - 1
Quad 32 - 32 - 4
Quad 415 - 817 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Thu, Nov 6 211 @Quinnipiac L 49 - 71 21% -12  2% 0 - 1 F -22 F -23 F D A C+ +1 D+ A+ F
 Tue, Nov 11 136 @Boston College W 60 - 59 12% -4  8% 1 - 1 B- +5 D -6 B- F+ D- A+ +11 A A C
 Sun, Nov 16 190 @Massachusetts L 77 - 84 19% -12  0% 1 - 2 D+ -6 D- -6 D+ D+ C C+ +1 B F B+
 Fri, Nov 21 113 @Rutgers W 67 - 54 9% +5  80% 2 - 2 A +19 C+ +3 C- F A+ A+ +18 A A+ B-
 Mon, Nov 24 284 Sacred Heart W 108 - 106 OT 57% +2  66% 3 - 2 D+ -8 A- +10 A- A+ C F -18 F D- F+
 Wed, Dec 3 54 @Seton Hall L 61 - 77 3% -9  2% 3 - 3 C- -3 B- +4 A+ F C F+ -9 F A+ D-
 Sun, Dec 7 288 @Northeastern L 56 - 73 36% -14  4% 3 - 4 F -22 F -22 F F A- C+ +0 C C D-
 Sat, Dec 13 358 @Binghamton W 84 - 67 68% +8  87% 4 - 4 C+ +4 B+ +8 A+ D- F C- -3 D+ D+ F+
 Thu, Dec 18 245 Fairfield L 70 - 84 48% -14  16% 4 - 5 F -22 D- -7 F B B+ F -16 F D+ D
 Fri, Jan 2 218 @LIU Brooklyn L 78 - 84 22% -1  33% 4 - 6 0 - 1 D+ -6 A+ +19 A+ C A F -27 F F F
 Sun, Jan 4 329 New Haven W 72 - 61 70% +10  99% 5 - 6 1 - 1 C- -3 B +7 A- C C+ D- -8 C+ F C+
 Thu, Jan 8 337 Stonehill W 76 - 69 73% +6  98% 6 - 6 2 - 1 D+ -8 C+ +3 B+ A F F -10 F B+ C-
 Sat, Jan 10 293 @Le Moyne W 69 - 59 37% +6  89% 7 - 6 3 - 1 B- +5 F+ -9 F D D- A+ +14 A+ C D+
 Sat, Jan 17 355 @St. Francis (PA) W 98 - 90 64% +7  98% 8 - 6 4 - 1 C- -4 A+ +18 A F A+ F -22 F+ F F
 Mon, Jan 19 289 @Mercyhurst L 61 - 79 36% -14  0% 8 - 7 4 - 2 F -23 D- -7 F B B- F -18 F C- D
 Fri, Jan 23 339 Fairleigh Dickinson L 66 - 76 73% -4  42% 8 - 8 4 - 3 F -25 D -4 D B- F+ F -22 F B+ F
 Mon, Jan 26 337 @Stonehill L 59 - 61 51% +3  79% 8 - 9 4 - 4 D -11 F -11 C+ F F C+ +0 D B+ C-
 Thu, Jan 29 320 @Wagner W 62 - 55 46% +2  63% 9 - 9 5 - 4 C -0 D- -7 D+ F+ C- A- +8 A+ C+ F
 Sat, Jan 31 218 LIU Brooklyn L 59 - 80 42% -2  40% 9 - 10 5 - 5 F -27 F -14 F F B- F -14 F+ D F
 Thu, Feb 5 347 Chicago St. W 78 - 67 77% +3  66% 10 - 10 6 - 5 D+ -5 B- +4 B+ A F F+ -8 D A+ F
 Sat, Feb 7 320 Wagner W 84 - 67 68% +9  91% 11 - 10 7 - 5 C+ +4 B+ +8 A- A+ C- C- -3 A- C- F
 Thu, Feb 12 329 @New Haven W 81 - 76 48% +6  87% 12 - 10 8 - 5 C- -3 B +6 A+ F F F+ -9 C+ F D
 Sat, Feb 14 339 @Fairleigh Dickinson W 63 - 57 52% +5  93% 13 - 10 9 - 5 C- -3 C- -2 F C- B+ C+ +1 A+ F D
 Thu, Feb 19 293 Le Moyne W 78 - 77 60% +8  99% 14 - 10 10 - 5 D -10 D+ -3 B+ F B- D- -7 F A D-
 Sat, Feb 21 347 @Chicago St. L 51 - 70 57% -5  23% 14 - 11 10 - 6 F -29 F -22 F C- F+ F+ -9 C F F
 Thu, Feb 26 289 Mercyhurst W 80 - 78 59% +0  51% 15 - 11 11 - 6 D -9 C+ +3 B- A- A F -11 F C+ F
 Sat, Feb 28 355 St. Francis (PA) W 82 - 72 82%
Totals 16 - 11 12 - 6 -8 C- -3 F C+ F D -6 C B+ D+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- C+ C C C+ 31% 52% 36% F C- D C- D+ C D- B+ D+ D C+ D+ D+ C 43% 14% 44% D- C- C- C C- F+ B F C+
1.05 60% 39% 34% +1 -2 1.00 26% 1.0 .26 17% .26 77% .20 1.17 56% 41% 36% 0 +1 1.05 32% 1.0 .32 13% .27 81% .21
Nov
6		 Quinnipiac F F F+ F F 26% 34% 40% F F D C- D A D- F F+ C+ B D D+ C- 47% 17% 37% F D+ B+ A+ A+ F A+ D+ A+
0.71 36% 28% 19% -18 -3 0.60 28% 1.0 .28 13% .23 64% .15 1.03 50% 40% 36% -2 +1 1.00 26% 0.6 .16 7% .11 71% .08
Nov
11		 Boston College D F+ A- A B+ 31% 33% 37% F+ B- B F F+ D- F F+ F A+ B+ D A+ A+ 33% 16% 51% D A D A+ A C A+ F B+
0.92 47% 44% 39% +1 -2 1.00 32% 0.4 .14 18% .19 60% .11 0.90 50% 44% 21% -11 0 0.80 34% 0.6 .20 15% .16 89% .14
Nov
16		 Massachusetts D- C+ F A- C- 43% 31% 27% D- D+ F A+ D+ C A D- B+ C+ A- B- C- B+ 40% 19% 40% D+ B F D F B+ F A+ B-
0.99 62% 27% 38% 0 -1 1.00 16% 1.6 .25 17% .48 68% .32 1.08 48% 36% 35% -4 0 0.95 44% 1.3 .56 22% .41 48% .20
Nov
21		 Rutgers C+ C- D A C 31% 37% 33% F C- C+ F F A+ C D+ C A+ A- A A A+ 35% 29% 37% D+ A A A+ A+ B- A+ B A+
1.08 56% 32% 41% +1 -3 0.98 33% 0.5 .18 11% .25 71% .18 0.87 47% 29% 28% -10 -1 0.80 26% 0.8 .21 16% .19 70% .13
Nov
24		 Sacred Heart A- A+ B+ A- A 46% 28% 26% D- A- D A+ A+ C A+ B A+ F C- F F F 39% 16% 44% D F C- F D- F+ F F F
1.32 77% 44% 40% +13 0 1.26 28% 1.9 .52 13% .47 76% .35 1.30 58% 50% 44% +9 +1 1.21 27% 1.2 .33 15% .37 96% .36
Dec
3		 Seton Hall B- A- F A+ A+ 41% 18% 41% C+ A+ D+ F F C F B F+ F+ A+ C F F 49% 16% 35% D- F B A+ A+ D- A- F B-
0.96 61% 25% 44% +5 0 1.14 26% 0.3 .06 24% .25 75% .19 1.21 44% 38% 61% +7 +1 1.20 32% 0.5 .18 13% .27 80% .22
Dec
7		 Northeastern F F F F F 44% 25% 31% D F F F F A- F+ F F C+ C+ D+ C C 44% 10% 46% F+ C A F C D- B- F D+
0.82 50% 14% 24% -14 0 0.73 21% 0.7 .15 13% .29 59% .17 1.07 57% 40% 33% -1 +2 1.04 19% 1.5 .29 15% .24 86% .21
Dec
13		 Binghamton B+ A+ C A+ A+ 42% 19% 38% C- A+ F+ C- D- F F C+ F C- D A+ A C 56% 9% 35% F D+ C F D+ F+ F C F
1.29 82% 40% 45% +17 0 1.37 25% 1.0 .25 18% .21 73% .15 1.03 63% 25% 27% -3 +3 1.02 19% 1.0 .19 17% .44 75% .33
Dec
18		 Fairfield D- F D+ C F 30% 22% 48% F F C- A+ B B+ F+ A+ D+ F D+ F F F 40% 15% 45% D- F B- F+ D+ D B- F C
1.06 31% 33% 35% -9 -1 0.83 30% 1.3 .40 12% .22 85% .19 1.27 59% 50% 44% +9 +1 1.22 31% 1.1 .34 14% .23 77% .17
Jan
2		 LIU Brooklyn A+ B+ B A+ A+ 37% 30% 33% F A+ C C- C A C- A- C+ F A F F F 42% 10% 48% F F F C F F F C+ F+
1.33 65% 43% 53% +13 -1 1.26 35% 1.0 .35 14% .32 75% .24 1.43 45% 60% 48% +7 +2 1.19 54% 0.9 .51 9% .37 65% .24
Jan
4		 New Haven B C- B+ A+ A+ 29% 23% 48% F+ A- D+ B+ C C+ F D- F D- B- B- B+ B- 37% 12% 51% F+ C+ F F F C+ A+ B A+
1.23 57% 45% 48% +11 -1 1.23 25% 1.3 .32 15% .14 71% .10 1.04 56% 33% 28% -6 +1 0.92 40% 1.1 .46 19% .06 67% .04
Jan
8		 Stonehill C+ A- B A+ A 28% 40% 33% F B+ D A+ A F A+ A+ A+ F B- F F F 55% 6% 39% F F D- A+ B+ C- B- B+ B-
1.15 67% 41% 43% +8 -3 1.12 24% 1.8 .44 20% .45 83% .38 1.04 50% 67% 40% +1 +3 1.10 32% 0.5 .18 20% .21 64% .13
Jan
10		 Le Moyne F+ C+ A+ F D- 24% 39% 37% F F B- F D D- A+ A- A+ A+ A+ B A+ A+ 51% 6% 43% F A+ C- C C D+ B+ F C-
0.97 58% 47% 17% -6 -3 0.84 34% 0.8 .26 17% .44 81% .36 0.83 37% 33% 17% -22 +3 0.64 25% 1.0 .25 18% .28 88% .24
Jan
17		 St. Francis (PA) A+ A+ B+ A+ A+ 28% 34% 38% F A F B- F A+ A+ A A+ F D+ D- F F 18% 30% 52% A+ F+ F D F F F D F
1.43 85% 44% 56% +22 -3 1.40 16% 1.3 .20 10% .55 79% .44 1.32 60% 41% 41% +7 -3 1.11 41% 1.1 .44 9% .35 73% .26
Jan
19		 Mercyhurst D- D F F F 35% 25% 40% F+ F B C+ B B- F A D F B- F F F 37% 33% 29% C- F F A C- D A+ F A
0.99 53% 25% 21% -13 -1 0.75 38% 1.1 .40 16% .29 80% .23 1.28 53% 59% 60% +16 -2 1.31 33% 0.9 .30 13% .07 100% .07
Jan
23		 Fairleigh Dickinson D F A+ F+ D+ 36% 34% 30% F D A- D+ B- F+ F+ A+ C- F F A+ F F 40% 20% 40% D+ F A+ D B+ F A- F B-
1.12 50% 60% 31% +3 -2 1.05 36% 0.9 .32 19% .27 85% .23 1.29 70% 20% 50% +11 0 1.24 21% 1.0 .21 9% .20 82% .17
Jan
26		 Stonehill F C- C A+ B- 47% 31% 22% D C+ F D F F F F F C+ F F A+ C- 47% 9% 44% F D C- A+ B+ C- F B- F
0.90 54% 38% 45% +2 -1 1.04 17% 1.0 .17 20% .08 50% .04 0.93 71% 50% 15% -5 +2 0.96 29% 0.6 .17 20% .46 67% .30
Jan
29		 Wagner D- B+ F F+ D 43% 13% 43% C+ D+ F B+ F+ C- F+ B- D- A- A F A+ A+ 40% 7% 53% F A+ C+ C+ C+ F F B- F
1.03 65% 17% 30% -2 +1 1.00 18% 1.2 .21 15% .31 75% .24 0.92 41% 67% 17% -18 +2 0.70 31% 1.0 .31 12% .41 68% .28
Jan
31		 LIU Brooklyn F C- F F+ F 25% 33% 41% F F D- F F B- D A+ B+ F D+ B+ F D- 51% 19% 30% F+ F+ B F D F F F F
0.89 54% 18% 29% -11 -3 0.75 27% 0.8 .22 17% .29 94% .27 1.21 63% 33% 43% +5 +1 1.15 31% 1.2 .38 14% .44 76% .33
Feb
5		 Chicago St. B- A+ A+ B A- 24% 17% 59% F+ B+ B- A A F B+ A+ A+ F+ F+ A+ C+ D+ 35% 24% 41% F D A+ A+ A+ F C+ F C-
1.25 80% 57% 38% +12 -1 1.24 39% 1.3 .52 24% .40 89% .36 1.07 63% 23% 32% -3 -1 0.94 17% 0.7 .11 5% .24 86% .20
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
7		 Wagner B+ A+ F A+ A+ 36% 43% 21% F A- C+ A+ A+ C- A+ B+ A+ C- A+ D- A A 41% 20% 39% D A- C+ D- C- F B- C B-
1.28 87% 28% 56% +13 -3 1.21 32% 1.7 .55 15% .56 77% .43 1.02 39% 45% 27% -10 0 0.82 31% 1.2 .36 14% .25 71% .18
Feb
12		 New Haven B A+ B A+ A+ 30% 35% 35% F A+ F+ F F F A+ D A+ F+ B+ F+ A B 50% 19% 31% F C+ D- F F D F F F
1.17 79% 44% 56% +20 -2 1.37 19% 0.6 .12 22% .41 73% .30 1.10 50% 44% 27% -6 +1 0.92 26% 1.6 .42 16% .38 95% .36
Feb
14		 Fairleigh Dickinson C- C+ B+ F D- 18% 49% 33% F F B+ F C- B+ C A+ A C+ A A+ A+ A+ 38% 14% 48% D- A+ F F F D F F F
1.12 63% 45% 27% +1 -5 0.93 34% 0.7 .25 12% .34 94% .32 1.01 44% 17% 10% -26 +1 0.52 44% 1.1 .49 16% .48 83% .40
Feb
19		 Le Moyne D+ A+ A+ D+ A+ 21% 32% 48% F B+ F F F B- F A+ F D- A- F+ F F 42% 21% 37% C+ F B+ A+ A D- B F+ C+
1.10 77% 55% 33% +9 -3 1.14 17% 0.8 .14 13% .02 100% .02 1.09 50% 45% 53% +8 0 1.19 19% 0.7 .13 17% .29 76% .22
Feb
21		 Chicago St. F F C F F 39% 17% 43% D+ F C C- C- F+ D+ B C- F+ C- A- A B 38% 19% 43% F C C- F F F B F C+
0.82 33% 38% 20% -19 0 0.65 35% 1.1 .38 23% .31 80% .25 1.13 55% 30% 26% -8 0 0.87 30% 1.5 .43 8% .21 83% .18
Feb
26		 Mercyhurst C+ B B A B+ 43% 36% 21% F B- F A+ A- A A+ C- A F C- F A- F 44% 29% 27% F+ F B D+ C+ F C- F D-
1.18 65% 41% 40% +6 -2 1.11 22% 2.0 .44 13% .47 71% .34 1.15 58% 63% 27% +4 -1 1.09 23% 1.1 .26 10% .23 86% .20



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 17.8 82.2 100.0 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 17.8 82.2 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4 0.0%
11-5 0.0%
10-6
9-7
8-8
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4 82.2% 17.9% 17.9% 16.0 0.4 14.4 67.4
11-5 17.8% 15.2% 15.2% 16.0 0.0 2.7 15.1
10-6
9-7
8-8
7-9
6-10
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 17.4% 17.4% 0.0% 16.0 82.6 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 14.7% 100.0% 16.0 2.4 97.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 24.5%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 19.5%
Lose Out 6.2%