Central Connecticut St.
Northeast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -5.6 #260
Expected Predictive Rating -1.8 #199
Pace 64.9 #293
Improvement -0.3 #200

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #249 C D C+ D+ F
Defense #259 C- C F A- F

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 31% #345 1.21 #117 -3.8 #307
2 Pt. Jumpers 31% #16 0.77 #156 +4.0 #28
Three Pointers 38% #248 1.07 #109 -0.5 #198
1st FG Attempt 1.02 #176 -0.3 #188
Freethrows 14.7 #309 76% #83 11.1 #271
Second Chance 26.8% #290 0.95 #282 0.26 #300
Turnovers 15.8% #129
Total Offense -2.9 #249

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #60 1.05 #54 -0.3 #186
2 Pt. Jumpers 12% #363 0.87 #322 +2.4 #29
Three Pointers 45% #73 1.08 #276 -3.5 #315
1st FG Attempt 1.04 #225 -1.4 #230
Freethrows 12.3 #12 82% #365 10.2 #338
Second Chance 31.0% #197 0.99 #115 0.31 #152
Turnovers 13.4% #338
Total Defense -2.7 #259

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -4.0% #353 2.9% #359
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 4.4% #118 -0.3% #175
Possession Length 18.7 #320 17.4 #197
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 #280 0.12 #37
Improvement +2.6 #45 -2.9 #326

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 29.2% 31.4% 25.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 15.6 15.8
.500 or above 93.0% 95.8% 85.5%
.500 or above in Conference 97.5% 97.8% 96.7%
Conference Champion 30.9% 36.0% 17.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.1% 0.5%
First Four11.1% 10.6% 12.5%
First Round24.3% 26.1% 19.5%
Second Round0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: St. Francis (PA) (Away) - 72.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 01 - 1
Quad 31 - 32 - 5
Quad 416 - 718 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Thu, Nov 6 156 @Quinnipiac L 49 - 71 20% -12  0 - 1 -19 -20 F D- A+ +0 C A+ F
 Tue, Nov 11 151 @Boston College W 60 - 59 20% -4  1 - 1 +4 -4 B+ F F +8 A+ B- D+
 Sun, Nov 16 168 @Massachusetts L 77 - 84 23% -12  1 - 2 -5 -2 C- C- C- -2 B F A-
 Fri, Nov 21 124 @Rutgers W 67 - 54 16% +5  2 - 2 +18 +6 C F A+ +14 A A+ C+
 Mon, Nov 24 285 Sacred Heart W 108 - 106 OT 67% +2  3 - 2 -8 +13 A- A+ B -21 F D+ F
 Wed, Dec 3 49 @Seton Hall L 61 - 77 5% -9  3 - 3 -2 +5 A+ F C- -9 F A+ D-
 Sun, Dec 7 236 @Northeastern L 56 - 73 33% -14  3 - 4 -18 -18 F F A+ -0 C C D
 Sat, Dec 13 359 @Binghamton W 84 - 67 73% +8  4 - 4 +5 +12 A+ F F -5 D- D+ F
 Thu, Dec 18 281 Fairfield L 70 - 84 66% -14  4 - 5 -24 -5 F A- B -19 F D+ D+
 Fri, Jan 2 219 @LIU Brooklyn L 78 - 84 30% -1  4 - 6 0 - 1 -6 +20 A+ D+ A+ -28 F F F
 Sun, Jan 4 340 New Haven W 72 - 61 79% +10  5 - 6 1 - 1 -3 +10 A+ C C+ -11 C F C-
 Thu, Jan 8 344 Stonehill W 76 - 69 80% +6  6 - 6 2 - 1 -8 +3 B A+ F -10 F A- D+
 Sat, Jan 10 295 @Le Moyne W 69 - 59 47% +6  7 - 6 3 - 1 +5 -8 F F D- +13 A+ B D+
 Sat, Jan 17 360 @St. Francis (PA) W 74 - 68 73%
 Mon, Jan 19 308 @Mercyhurst W 67 - 66 51%
 Fri, Jan 23 351 Fairleigh Dickinson W 76 - 66 84%
 Sun, Jan 25 344 @Stonehill W 69 - 66 61%
 Thu, Jan 29 316 @Wagner W 71 - 70 53%
 Sat, Jan 31 219 LIU Brooklyn W 73 - 72 52%
 Thu, Feb 5 349 Chicago St. W 77 - 67 83%
 Sat, Feb 7 316 Wagner W 74 - 67 73%
 Thu, Feb 12 340 @New Haven W 66 - 63 59%
 Sat, Feb 14 351 @Fairleigh Dickinson W 73 - 69 66%
 Thu, Feb 19 295 Le Moyne W 76 - 71 68%
 Sat, Feb 21 349 @Chicago St. W 74 - 70 66%
 Thu, Feb 26 308 Mercyhurst W 69 - 63 71%
 Sat, Feb 28 360 St. Francis (PA) W 77 - 65 87%
Totals 16 - 11 12 - 6 -6 -3 C D C+ -3 C- C F




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.9 5.6 8.9 8.4 4.6 29.7 1st
2nd 0.0 1.1 5.9 11.8 12.3 7.5 2.2 0.3 41.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 3.7 6.2 3.4 0.7 0.0 14.5 3rd
4th 0.1 1.9 3.1 1.2 0.2 6.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 2.0 0.8 0.0 3.6 5th
6th 0.2 1.1 0.6 0.0 1.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.4 5.1 8.7 13.6 17.3 18.6 16.4 10.6 4.9 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 94.7% 4.6    4.0 0.7
15-1 79.0% 8.4    6.1 2.3 0.0
14-2 54.4% 8.9    5.1 3.7 0.1
13-3 30.2% 5.6    2.4 2.7 0.5 0.0
12-4 11.1% 1.9    0.4 0.8 0.6 0.1
11-5 1.7% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
10-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 29.7% 29.7 17.9 10.2 1.4 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 4.9% 49.1% 49.1% 14.8 0.0 0.5 1.6 0.2 2.5
15-1 10.6% 45.3% 45.3% 15.4 0.2 2.3 2.3 5.8
14-2 16.4% 38.2% 38.2% 15.8 0.1 1.4 4.8 10.2
13-3 18.6% 32.2% 32.2% 15.9 0.0 0.8 5.2 12.6
12-4 17.3% 26.0% 26.0% 15.9 0.0 0.2 4.3 12.8
11-5 13.6% 21.4% 21.4% 16.0 0.1 2.8 10.6
10-6 8.7% 16.3% 16.3% 16.0 0.0 1.4 7.3
9-7 5.1% 12.7% 12.7% 16.0 0.0 0.6 4.4
8-8 2.4% 8.3% 8.3% 16.0 0.2 2.2
7-9 0.9% 6.5% 6.5% 16.0 0.1 0.9
6-10 0.3% 3.9% 3.9% 16.0 0.0 0.2
5-11 0.1% 0.0 0.1
4-12 0.0% 0.0
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 29.2% 29.2% 0.0% 15.7 70.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.7% 100.0% 13.6 2.2 41.0 48.2 8.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%