Detroit Mercy
Horizon
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -6.4 #273
Expected Predictive Rating -6.5 #266
Pace 71.2 #120
Improvement +4.7 #14

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #222 D+ C C+ C F
Defense #317 C- D D- C- D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 32% #331 1.11 #243 -4.8 #330
2 Pt. Jumpers 36% #5 0.79 #122 +6.6 #5
Three Pointers 32% #340 0.98 #223 -5.0 #329
1st FG Attempt 0.95 #261 -3.2 #264
Freethrows 15.6 #277 80% #8 12.5 #192
Second Chance 33.0% #120 0.94 #294 0.31 #187
Turnovers 16.0% #137
Total Offense -1.9 #222

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #206 1.21 #251 -0.8 #206
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% #329 0.64 #38 +2.8 #14
Three Pointers 47% #44 1.06 #249 -4.0 #328
1st FG Attempt 1.06 #247 -2.0 #251
Freethrows 19.5 #289 70% #63 13.6 #120
Second Chance 31.8% #231 1.15 #305 0.37 #288
Turnovers 13.8% #329
Total Defense -4.5 #317

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -5.0% #361 1.3% #288
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -1.3% #196 2.5% #230
Possession Length 17.2 #161 16.5 #55
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 #155 0.22 #316
Improvement +3.3 #25 +1.4 #104

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.1% 3.5% 1.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.5 15.8
.500 or above 5.7% 13.6% 3.4%
.500 or above in Conference 37.1% 60.0% 30.5%
Conference Champion 0.6% 1.7% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.1% 0.4%
First Four1.1% 1.3% 1.0%
First Round1.6% 2.7% 1.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Northern Kentucky (Away) - 22.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 32 - 82 - 12
Quad 48 - 611 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 160 @Illinois-Chicago L 71 - 91 19% -6  0 - 1 -17 -7 F F C -8 D- F B
 Fri, Nov 7 71 @Notre Dame L 70 - 102 6% -17  0 - 2 -21 -2 B C F -17 D- F F
 Sat, Nov 15 164 @Toledo L 83 - 90 20% -4  0 - 3 -5 +2 D D+ B+ -6 F C A-
 Tue, Nov 18 211 Eastern Michigan L 62 - 72 48% +1  0 - 4 -16 -11 F C- C- -4 D C- B
 Fri, Nov 21 13 @Michigan St. L 56 - 84 1% -16  0 - 5 -6 -1 B- C F -5 B F C
 Sun, Nov 23 98 @DePaul L 75 - 95 9% -6  0 - 6 -12 +13 A+ C- B- -25 F F F
 Sat, Nov 29 355 @Niagara W 70 - 66 65% +6  1 - 6 -7 -4 F D+ B- -3 D+ D+ F
 Wed, Dec 3 353 IU Indianapolis W 92 - 78 83% +10  2 - 6 1 - 0 -2 +8 F A+ A+ -11 C C- D
 Sat, Dec 6 328 @Cleveland St. W 71 - 59 53% +4  3 - 6 2 - 0 +5 -0 F F A+ +6 A+ D- C
 Sun, Dec 14 237 @Purdue Fort Wayne L 77 - 81 31% -2  3 - 7 2 - 1 -5 +5 F D+ A+ -11 D+ C F
 Mon, Dec 29 209 @Youngstown St. W 73 - 68 26% +7  4 - 7 3 - 1 +5 +2 B- F D+ +3 A+ A+ F
 Fri, Jan 2 214 Robert Morris L 77 - 85 48% -0  4 - 8 3 - 2 -14 +2 B C+ F -16 C F B-
 Fri, Jan 9 142 Wright St. L 82 - 84 33% -6  4 - 9 3 - 3 -4 +7 D+ A+ A+ -11 D- B+ C-
 Sun, Jan 11 328 Cleveland St. W 94 - 84 75% +11  5 - 9 4 - 3 -3 +5 B- B- F -9 F A+ D+
 Thu, Jan 15 179 @Northern Kentucky L 74 - 82 23%
 Sat, Jan 17 353 @IU Indianapolis W 89 - 85 64%
 Wed, Jan 21 237 Purdue Fort Wayne W 78 - 77 53%
 Sat, Jan 24 135 Oakland L 83 - 88 33%
 Fri, Jan 30 179 Northern Kentucky L 77 - 79 43%
 Wed, Feb 4 229 @Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 76 - 82 29%
 Sat, Feb 7 243 @Green Bay L 72 - 77 33%
 Thu, Feb 12 142 @Wright St. L 70 - 80 16%
 Sun, Feb 15 209 Youngstown St. L 74 - 75 48%
 Fri, Feb 20 229 Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 79 - 78 51%
 Sun, Feb 22 243 Green Bay W 75 - 74 54%
 Wed, Feb 25 214 @Robert Morris L 72 - 79 27%
 Sat, Feb 28 135 @Oakland L 80 - 91 16%
Totals 10 - 17 9 - 11 -6 -2 D+ C C+ -5 C- D D-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 2.5 1.3 0.2 0.0 4.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 3.6 2.7 0.4 0.0 7.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 3.4 4.6 0.7 0.0 9.0 5th
6th 0.2 2.9 6.5 2.0 0.1 11.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.5 7.9 4.4 0.2 15.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 3.5 9.3 6.6 0.8 0.0 20.7 8th
9th 0.3 2.1 6.4 9.9 6.4 1.2 0.0 26.2 9th
10th 0.2 1.0 0.9 0.5 0.0 0.0 2.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.5 3.1 7.8 14.1 18.4 18.9 15.7 11.1 6.4 2.7 0.9 0.3 0.1 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 73.7% 0.1    0.1 0.0
15-5 61.7% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
14-6 20.0% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 4.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.6% 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-5 0.3% 20.0% 20.0% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
14-6 0.9% 10.3% 10.3% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8
13-7 2.7% 8.6% 8.6% 15.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 2.5
12-8 6.4% 6.1% 6.1% 15.5 0.2 0.2 6.0
11-9 11.1% 4.8% 4.8% 15.9 0.1 0.5 10.5
10-10 15.7% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.3 15.4
9-11 18.9% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.3 18.6
8-12 18.4% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 18.3
7-13 14.1% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 14.1
6-14 7.8% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 7.8
5-15 3.1% 3.1
4-16 0.5% 0.5
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 2.1% 2.1% 0.0% 15.7 97.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.4%