Detroit Mercy
Horizon
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-9.4#328
Expected Predictive Rating-12.5#333
Pace74.7#65
Improvement+1.7#57

Offense
Total Offense-4.8#306
First Shot-2.0#231
After Offensive Rebound-2.8#335
Layup/Dunks-2.6#269
2 Pt Jumpshots+6.5#5
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.5#337
Freethrows-0.5#201
Improvement+1.8#46

Defense
Total Defense-4.6#330
First Shot-2.9#275
After Offensive Rebounds-1.7#286
Layups/Dunks+2.9#76
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#181
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.8#348
Freethrows-0.3#212
Improvement+0.0#196
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.9% 1.2% 0.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.7 15.8
.500 or above 2.3% 4.1% 1.0%
.500 or above in Conference 14.5% 19.7% 10.7%
Conference Champion 0.4% 0.6% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 24.5% 19.7% 28.0%
First Four0.6% 0.8% 0.4%
First Round0.6% 0.9% 0.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Niagara (Away) - 42.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 31 - 81 - 12
Quad 46 - 97 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 174 @Illinois-Chicago L 71-91 15%     0 - 1 -18.2 -9.8 -6.1
  Fri, Nov 7 66 @Notre Dame L 70-102 4%     0 - 2 -20.5 -2.5 -15.5
  Sat, Nov 15 173 @Toledo L 83-90 15%     0 - 3 -5.2 +1.0 -5.7
  Tue, Nov 18 209 Eastern Michigan L 62-72 37%     0 - 4 -16.0 -12.6 -3.4
  Fri, Nov 21 12 @Michigan St. L 56-84 1%     0 - 5 -6.9 -3.7 -3.7
  Sun, Nov 23 109 @DePaul L 75-95 8%     0 - 6 -13.4 +9.7 -23.9
  Sat, Nov 29 333 @Niagara L 70-72 42%    
  Wed, Dec 3 355 IU Indianapolis W 96-89 73%    
  Sat, Dec 6 303 @Cleveland St. L 81-86 34%    
  Sun, Dec 14 236 @Purdue Fort Wayne L 76-84 23%    
  Mon, Dec 29 189 @Youngstown St. L 71-82 17%    
  Fri, Jan 2 185 Robert Morris L 74-79 34%    
  Fri, Jan 9 146 Wright St. L 70-77 28%    
  Sun, Jan 11 303 Cleveland St. W 84-83 55%    
  Thu, Jan 15 198 @Northern Kentucky L 72-82 18%    
  Sat, Jan 17 355 @IU Indianapolis W 93-92 53%    
  Wed, Jan 21 236 Purdue Fort Wayne L 79-81 43%    
  Sat, Jan 24 138 Oakland L 78-86 24%    
  Fri, Jan 30 198 Northern Kentucky L 75-79 36%    
  Wed, Feb 4 208 @Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 74-83 20%    
  Sat, Feb 7 267 @Green Bay L 70-77 28%    
  Thu, Feb 12 146 @Wright St. L 67-80 14%    
  Sun, Feb 15 189 Youngstown St. L 74-79 34%    
  Fri, Feb 20 208 Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 77-80 39%    
  Sun, Feb 22 267 Green Bay L 73-74 48%    
  Wed, Feb 25 185 @Robert Morris L 71-82 17%    
  Sat, Feb 28 138 @Oakland L 75-89 11%    
Projected Record 7 - 20 6 - 14




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.6 0.2 1.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 1.2 1.0 0.2 0.0 2.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 1.9 1.6 0.4 0.0 4.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.6 2.6 0.6 0.0 0.0 6.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.3 3.8 3.6 0.9 0.0 9.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.0 4.7 5.2 1.4 0.1 13.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.9 7.0 5.3 1.7 0.1 19.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.7 3.1 6.5 7.3 4.4 1.3 0.1 23.4 10th
11th 0.4 2.0 3.8 4.9 3.4 1.6 0.4 16.4 11th
Total 0.4 2.0 4.5 8.1 10.9 13.1 13.9 12.7 11.6 8.3 6.0 3.8 2.4 1.3 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-3 83.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0
16-4 91.4% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0
15-5 39.2% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0
14-6 19.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 2.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.4% 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.0% 0.0
18-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0
17-3 0.0% 0.0 0.0
16-4 0.1% 20.0% 20.0% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-5 0.3% 19.0% 19.0% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
14-6 0.6% 8.8% 8.8% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.6
13-7 1.3% 8.1% 8.1% 15.5 0.0 0.1 1.2
12-8 2.4% 3.5% 3.5% 15.9 0.0 0.1 2.3
11-9 3.8% 3.3% 3.3% 15.9 0.0 0.1 3.7
10-10 6.0% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.2 5.8
9-11 8.3% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.1 8.2
8-12 11.6% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 11.5
7-13 12.7% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 12.7
6-14 13.9% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 13.9
5-15 13.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 13.1
4-16 10.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 10.9
3-17 8.1% 8.1
2-18 4.5% 4.5
1-19 2.0% 2.0
0-20 0.4% 0.4
Total 100% 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 99.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.3%