Eastern Illinois
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -8.8 #311
Expected Predictive Rating -7.6 #282
Pace 66.1 #270
Improvement +0.1 #181

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #353 F D- D C D-
Defense #179 C F C+ D+ F

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #181 1.06 #291 -2.1 #255
2 Pt. Jumpers 30% #33 0.62 #329 +1.6 #94
Three Pointers 32% #339 0.94 #277 -5.8 #337
1st FG Attempt 0.89 #341 -6.3 #340
Freethrows 16.9 #215 76% #80 12.8 #171
Second Chance 26.5% #298 0.91 #324 0.24 #325
Turnovers 18.3% #285
Total Offense -8.4 #353

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #128 1.25 #293 -3.0 #281
2 Pt. Jumpers 13% #355 0.80 #249 +2.4 #32
Three Pointers 46% #48 0.84 #17 +1.4 #133
1st FG Attempt 1.00 #159 +0.7 #159
Freethrows 18.0 #218 77% #341 13.9 #92
Second Chance 35.6% #333 1.14 #301 0.41 #340
Turnovers 17.3% #131
Total Defense -0.4 #179

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -2.4% #319 2.1% #345
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -10.2% #333 -3.5% #118
Possession Length 19.1 #337 16.4 #53
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.20 #107 0.19 #246
Improvement -0.9 #236 +1.1 #117

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.8% 4.5% 2.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 6.9% 13.6% 3.7%
.500 or above in Conference 52.4% 71.6% 43.4%
Conference Champion 2.2% 4.8% 0.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.6% 0.2% 0.8%
First Four2.0% 3.0% 1.5%
First Round1.7% 2.9% 1.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Arkansas Little Rock (Away) - 32.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 4
Quad 20 - 10 - 4
Quad 30 - 40 - 8
Quad 411 - 1011 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 184 @Valparaiso L 63 - 66 17% -5  0 - 1 -2 -8 C- F F +7 A+ D A+
 Fri, Nov 7 205 Nicholls St. W 65 - 57 38% +5  1 - 1 +2 -11 F C D+ +13 A+ A+ C-
 Tue, Nov 11 71 @Notre Dame L 58 - 78 4% -7  1 - 2 -9 +0 B- F F -13 B F C
 Fri, Nov 14 25 @Kentucky L 53 - 99 1% -27  1 - 3 -27 -8 D- F B- -20 F F A+
 Tue, Nov 25 265 @Central Arkansas L 60 - 81 28% -16  1 - 4 -24 -8 D- D- D -18 F F B
 Fri, Nov 28 3 @Purdue L 62 - 109 1% -25  1 - 5 -22 -3 A F F -18 F F B-
 Sat, Dec 6 252 Lindenwood L 74 - 82 48% +1  1 - 6 0 - 1 -16 -3 F B A+ -13 D+ F D+
 Wed, Dec 10 253 Eastern Kentucky L 59 - 68 48% -5  1 - 7 -17 -14 F D+ F -5 C- C- C
 Sun, Dec 14 6 @Iowa St. L 53 - 78 1% -15  1 - 8 -1 -7 F C- D +6 A+ A B+
 Thu, Dec 18 278 SIU Edwardsville W 76 - 72 OT 53% +0  2 - 8 1 - 1 -6 -0 B C- F -6 F A+ B-
 Thu, Jan 1 224 @Southeast Missouri St. L 59 - 68 21% +2  2 - 9 1 - 2 -9 -14 F F C +4 A F C
 Sat, Jan 3 225 @Tennessee Martin L 61 - 65 21% +8  2 - 10 1 - 3 -4 -8 F F D- +4 A- F A+
 Thu, Jan 8 314 Tennessee Tech W 71 - 61 63% -2  3 - 10 2 - 3 -2 +2 D- B- A -2 B- D+ A
 Sat, Jan 10 226 Tennessee St. W 74 - 70 41% +8  4 - 10 3 - 3 -3 +1 C C B -3 D+ A+ C
 Tue, Jan 13 357 Western Illinois W 57 - 55 80% +4  5 - 10 4 - 3 -16 -18 F F F +2 A+ F B
 Thu, Jan 15 283 @Arkansas Little Rock L 65 - 70 32%
 Thu, Jan 22 343 @Southern Indiana L 67 - 68 49%
 Sat, Jan 24 304 @Morehead St. L 65 - 68 38%
 Thu, Jan 29 225 Tennessee Martin L 65 - 67 41%
 Sat, Jan 31 224 Southeast Missouri St. L 69 - 71 41%
 Thu, Feb 5 226 @Tennessee St. L 67 - 75 22%
 Sat, Feb 7 314 @Tennessee Tech L 67 - 70 40%
 Tue, Feb 10 357 @Western Illinois W 64 - 61 61%
 Sat, Feb 14 283 Arkansas Little Rock W 68 - 67 54%
 Thu, Feb 19 304 Morehead St. W 68 - 65 60%
 Sat, Feb 21 343 Southern Indiana W 70 - 64 69%
 Thu, Feb 26 252 @Lindenwood L 68 - 74 27%
 Sat, Feb 28 278 @SIU Edwardsville L 61 - 66 32%
Totals 11 - 17 10 - 10 -9 -8 F D- D +0 C F C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 0.9 0.5 0.2 2.2 1st
2nd 0.0 1.0 2.0 1.1 0.2 0.0 4.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.9 3.8 2.2 0.3 0.0 7.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 4.5 4.3 0.6 0.0 10.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 4.1 6.5 1.3 0.0 12.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 3.7 8.0 2.8 0.1 14.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 3.1 8.1 4.7 0.3 16.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 3.4 7.7 5.0 0.8 17.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 2.5 4.8 3.2 0.5 0.0 11.6 9th
10th 0.1 0.8 1.3 0.8 0.1 3.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 11th
Total 0.2 1.4 4.4 9.3 14.4 17.9 18.3 15.0 10.5 5.4 2.4 0.7 0.2 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 88.1% 0.2    0.2 0.0
15-5 72.0% 0.5    0.3 0.2 0.0
14-6 39.4% 0.9    0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0
13-7 10.3% 0.6    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 2.2% 2.2 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.2% 31.0% 31.0% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-5 0.7% 22.0% 22.0% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.5
14-6 2.4% 14.8% 14.8% 15.9 0.0 0.3 2.0
13-7 5.4% 10.5% 10.5% 15.9 0.0 0.5 4.8
12-8 10.5% 5.7% 5.7% 16.0 0.0 0.6 9.9
11-9 15.0% 2.8% 2.8% 16.0 0.4 14.6
10-10 18.3% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.3 18.0
9-11 17.9% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.2 17.7
8-12 14.4% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 14.3
7-13 9.3% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 9.3
6-14 4.4% 4.4
5-15 1.4% 1.4
4-16 0.2% 0.2
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 2.8% 2.8% 0.0% 15.9 97.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%