Eastern Illinois
Ohio Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.

Predictive Rating -10.0 317
Results Rating -9.9 321
Consistency 0.13 79
Pace 65.4 265
Improvement -0.5 210

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense F+ 354 F D+ D+ C- D-
Defense C- 206 C- D B D D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% 208 F+ 50% 351 -3.7 311
2 Pt. Jumpers 60% 13 D- 31% 343 +2.2 68
Three Pointers 30% 351 D 31% 294 -6.6 350
Shot Selection/Accuracy D- -1.5 339 F+ -6.7 355
1st FG Attempt F 0.86 359
Second Chance D+ 26.6% 290 C- 0.99 249 D+ 0.26 290
Opponents' Steals C+ 8.9% 128
Other Turnovers F+ 9.3% 346
Turnovers D+ 18.2% 280
Freethrows D+ 0.28 259 B- 75% 91 C- 0.21 215
Total Offense F+ -8.9 354

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C 47% 213 D- 14.1% 333
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 27% 142 D 7.2% 307
Three Pointers B- 88% 109 F 2.7% 365
Total D+ 52% 265 F 8.4% 360

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% 150 D+ 62% 286 +2.2 255
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% 336 D 42% 309 -1.4 75
Three Pointers 45% 68 B- 32% 77 +0.5 206
Shot Selection/Accuracy D +0.8 311 C +0.5 198
1st FG Attempt C- 1.05 223
Second Chance D- 34.8% 329 C- 1.07 252 D 0.37 323
Turnovers from Steals B- 10.7% 92
Other Turnovers B- 8.2% 76
Turnovers B 18.9% 62
Freethrows D+ 0.33 265 F 77% 360 D 0.26 312
Total Defense C- -1.1 206

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D- 58% 343 D+ 8.5% 272
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 30% 272 A- 9.7% 17
Three Pointers F+ 92% 360 D+ 0.3% 302
Total D- 64% 344 C- 5.0% 217

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.5 297 16.6 59
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 133 0.20 276
Consistency 0.08 4 0.14 284
Improvement +0.2 181 -0.7 224

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 328 318 305
Results Rating Rank 328 320 295
Conference Record 8 - 12 8 - 12 9 - 11
Conference Finish 9 8 7
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1% 1% 1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four1% 1% 1%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: SIU Edwardsville (Away) - 24.5% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 3
Quad 20 - 10 - 4
Quad 30 - 50 - 9
Quad 410 - 1010 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 150 @Valparaiso L 63 - 66 11% -5  4% 0 - 1 C +1 F -10 D+ F F A +11 A+ C- A
 Fri, Nov 7 253 Nicholls St. W 65 - 57 43% +5  78% 1 - 1 C -0 F -14 F C D A+ +14 A+ A C-
 Tue, Nov 11 90 @Notre Dame L 58 - 78 5% -7  6% 1 - 2 D -11 D -5 C+ F+ D- F+ -9 B F C
 Fri, Nov 14 23 @Kentucky L 53 - 99 1% -27  0% 1 - 3 F -27 F -11 D- F B- F -17 F F A-
 Tue, Nov 25 173 @Central Arkansas L 60 - 81 13% -16  0% 1 - 4 F -19 F+ -9 F+ D+ C+ F -12 F F B+
 Fri, Nov 28 7 @Purdue L 62 - 109 0% -25  7% 1 - 5 F -23 D- -6 B+ F F F -15 F F B-
 Sat, Dec 6 278 Lindenwood L 74 - 82 49% +1  50% 1 - 6 0 - 1 F+ -18 D -6 F B A F -12 D+ F D
 Wed, Dec 10 287 Eastern Kentucky L 59 - 68 51% -5  6% 1 - 7 F -19 F -18 F D F+ C- -2 C D+ C
 Sun, Dec 14 8 @Iowa St. L 53 - 78 0% -15  13% 1 - 8 C -1 F+ -10 F+ D+ D- A +9 A A B
 Thu, Dec 18 260 SIU Edwardsville W 76 - 72 OT 44% +0  45% 2 - 8 1 - 1 C- -5 C- -0 B C+ F D+ -4 F A+ C+
 Thu, Jan 1 231 @Southeast Missouri St. L 59 - 68 20% +2  49% 2 - 9 1 - 2 D -10 F -14 D- F C B +4 B F D-
 Sat, Jan 3 214 @Tennessee Martin L 61 - 65 17% +0  47% 2 - 10 1 - 3 C- -4 D- -8 F F B- B +4 A+ F A+
 Thu, Jan 8 311 Tennessee Tech W 71 - 61 58% -2  28% 3 - 10 2 - 3 C- -2 C- -1 D B- B- C+ +0 C+ C- A
 Sat, Jan 10 217 Tennessee St. W 74 - 70 36% +8  95% 4 - 10 3 - 3 C- -2 D+ -4 D+ C B+ B- +2 C A+ C+
 Tue, Jan 13 363 Western Illinois W 57 - 55 86% +4  89% 5 - 10 4 - 3 F -19 F -24 F F F+ B +5 A F+ B
 Thu, Jan 15 303 @Arkansas Little Rock L 63 - 74 33% +4  80% 5 - 11 4 - 4 F+ -16 F+ -10 F A F D- -8 D- F C+
 Thu, Jan 22 338 @Southern Indiana W 59 - 51 OT 45% -3  10% 6 - 11 5 - 4 C -1 F -20 F F D- A+ +19 A+ F+ A+
 Sat, Jan 24 279 @Morehead St. L 68 - 73 27% -0  46% 6 - 12 5 - 5 D -9 D+ -3 F A F D -6 F F A+
 Thu, Jan 29 214 Tennessee Martin L 68 - 76 35% -7  1% 6 - 13 5 - 6 D- -14 D -4 F+ C- A+ F -10 F D+ A+
 Sat, Jan 31 231 Southeast Missouri St. L 59 - 77 38% -12  0% 6 - 14 5 - 7 F -25 F -12 D- D- F F -14 F A+ D+
 Thu, Feb 5 217 @Tennessee St. L 68 - 77 18% -3  8% 6 - 15 5 - 8 D -9 D- -8 D+ B+ F C -1 D+ A F
 Sat, Feb 7 311 @Tennessee Tech W 60 - 54 35% +7  94% 7 - 15 6 - 8 C +0 F -13 F D- C- A+ +13 A F+ A+
 Tue, Feb 10 363 @Western Illinois L 70 - 79 70% -4  25% 7 - 16 6 - 9 F -24 F -13 F D- C- F -11 F D- D
 Sat, Feb 14 303 Arkansas Little Rock W 78 - 72 56% +2  57% 8 - 16 7 - 9 D+ -5 C +1 F B A+ D -6 C- F+ D+
 Thu, Feb 19 279 Morehead St. L 70 - 73 49% -4  20% 8 - 17 7 - 10 D- -13 F+ -9 F B- C+ D+ -4 F A+ A
 Sat, Feb 21 338 Southern Indiana L 68 - 70 68% -8  5% 8 - 18 7 - 11 F+ -17 D- -7 F B- C F -10 F D B
 Thu, Feb 26 278 @Lindenwood W 71 - 67 27% +5  91% 9 - 18 8 - 11 C +0 D+ -3 C F D+ B- +3 B+ D- C+
 Sat, Feb 28 260 @SIU Edwardsville L 58 - 65 24%
Totals 9 - 19 8 - 12 -10 F+ -9 F F+ D- C- -1 D B- C-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings F+ F+ D- D F+ 38% 60% 30% D- F D+ C- D+ D+ D+ B- C- C- D+ D B- C 40% 15% 45% D C- D- C- D B D+ F D
0.96 50% 31% 31% -7 -1 0.86 27% 1.0 .26 18% .28 75% .21 1.10 62% 42% 32% 0 +1 1.05 35% 1.1 .37 19% .33 77% .22
Nov
4		 Valparaiso F A- C- F+ C+ 34% 47% 18% F D+ C F F F A+ A+ A+ A C- A+ A+ A+ 27% 9% 64% F A+ D+ C C- A F A+ F
0.90 69% 33% 29% 0 -4 0.95 31% 0.3 .09 29% .62 81% .50 0.94 58% 0% 18% -19 +1 0.66 34% 1.1 .36 20% .62 60% .37
Nov
7		 Nicholls St. F F F F F 40% 26% 35% D- F D+ B- C D A+ C- A+ A+ D A+ A+ A+ 33% 24% 43% A- A+ F A+ A C- F B- F
0.93 47% 27% 27% -11 -1 0.79 32% 1.2 .38 23% .54 76% .41 0.82 63% 8% 19% -15 -1 0.69 33% 0.4 .13 16% .46 63% .29
Nov
11		 Notre Dame D F A+ D+ B 20% 38% 42% F C+ B- F F+ D- D- A D+ F+ D C+ A A- 39% 16% 45% D- B F C- F C B- D C
0.95 44% 53% 32% +1 -4 0.98 28% 0.4 .13 18% .24 83% .20 1.28 68% 38% 27% -1 +1 1.02 53% 1.0 .53 16% .29 73% .22
Nov
14		 Kentucky F C F B- D+ 18% 47% 35% F D- F F F B- B+ D B- F F F F+ F 50% 10% 40% F F F F F A- B+ D+ B
0.78 56% 22% 35% -7 -5 0.78 13% 0.6 .08 16% .33 68% .23 1.46 80% 60% 40% +17 +2 1.40 57% 1.4 .79 19% .29 75% .22
Nov
25		 Central Arkansas F+ A- D+ F F+ 33% 25% 42% F+ F+ F A+ D+ C+ D A+ C+ F F A+ D F 36% 6% 57% F+ F F F F B+ C+ A B
0.95 69% 33% 25% -3 -1 0.94 17% 1.6 .28 19% .23 92% .21 1.28 82% 0% 37% +9 +2 1.23 35% 1.8 .62 19% .25 62% .16
Nov
28		 Purdue D- A+ A+ F B+ 27% 31% 41% D+ B+ F+ F F F D C D F F C- F F 36% 25% 39% C+ F F F F B- C F D-
0.86 79% 50% 24% +3 -2 1.04 13% 0.8 .10 24% .16 67% .11 1.52 85% 43% 50% +20 -1 1.41 46% 1.5 .67 14% .29 89% .26
Dec
6		 Lindenwood D F+ F F F 61% 27% 12% C F C+ A- B A D- C+ D F F+ B A+ C- 53% 14% 33% F D+ F F F D F F F
1.03 50% 19% 14% -14 +1 0.76 33% 1.2 .40 13% .29 72% .21 1.14 67% 29% 18% -5 +2 0.96 38% 1.4 .53 17% .39 78% .30
Dec
10		 Eastern Kentucky F D F D- F 39% 33% 28% D- F F+ B+ D F+ F+ A+ C- C- D- F A C+ 23% 13% 64% F+ C D C+ D+ C C+ F D-
0.94 56% 20% 31% -8 -1 0.83 24% 1.1 .27 19% .27 86% .24 1.08 64% 67% 27% -2 0 0.98 35% 1.1 .38 17% .25 92% .23
Dec
14		 Iowa St. F+ F F C- D- 29% 33% 39% D F+ D+ D+ D+ D- C- B+ C A F F A+ A 42% 17% 42% C- A B A A B F F+ F
0.75 43% 25% 32% -10 -2 0.78 23% 1.0 .23 26% .23 75% .17 1.11 75% 50% 20% 0 +1 1.04 34% 0.9 .31 17% .46 74% .34
Dec
18		 SIU Edwardsville C- A- B D+ B+ 34% 28% 38% D+ B C- B+ C+ F C- B C D+ C A+ F F 32% 22% 46% D F A- A+ A+ C+ C- F D-
1.07 65% 43% 32% +2 -1 1.04 31% 1.1 .34 22% .31 76% .23 1.01 56% 18% 48% +5 -1 1.10 22% 0.5 .11 20% .28 81% .23
Jan
1		 Southeast Missouri St. F F D+ B+ F+ 53% 18% 29% B D- F F F C C- D+ D+ B B+ A+ A A 65% 4% 31% F B D- F F D- C- A+ A
0.84 42% 38% 38% -7 +1 0.91 16% 0.4 .06 17% .38 73% .28 0.97 48% 0% 27% -11 +4 0.88 32% 1.9 .62 14% .33 45% .15
Jan
3		 Tennessee Martin D- B D F F+ 18% 33% 49% F F D+ F F B- A D- B B A F A+ A+ 22% 15% 63% C+ A+ C+ F F A+ F F F
0.91 67% 31% 25% -7 -3 0.82 30% 0.5 .16 18% .42 65% .27 0.97 44% 67% 19% -13 0 0.76 34% 1.5 .50 27% .53 85% .45
Jan
8		 Tennessee Tech C- C F C D- 47% 17% 36% B D B- B- B- B- B D B- C+ C+ D- A B- 33% 18% 49% D+ C+ D+ C+ C- A F F F
1.14 59% 13% 35% -3 +1 0.98 33% 1.3 .42 13% .33 72% .24 0.98 54% 43% 26% -6 0 0.90 32% 1.0 .32 24% .44 90% .40
Jan
10		 Tennessee St. D+ F F A+ C- 47% 21% 32% D+ D+ C C C B+ F A F B- B+ F A- C+ 34% 25% 42% D+ C B- A+ A+ C+ F B- F
1.08 48% 27% 53% +2 +1 1.08 31% 1.1 .34 16% .19 82% .16 1.02 50% 54% 27% -3 -1 0.94 29% 0.6 .18 18% .39 73% .28
Jan
13		 Western Illinois F D- F F F 45% 34% 20% F F F+ F F F+ A+ A- A+ B A B+ A+ A+ 57% 21% 21% F A F C+ F+ B D F F
0.86 55% 20% 11% -15 -1 0.70 26% 0.9 .23 18% .42 78% .33 0.83 41% 30% 10% -19 +1 0.66 34% 0.9 .32 20% .34 83% .28
Jan
15		 Arkansas Little Rock F+ F C A- F 31% 31% 38% F F D- A+ A F F A+ D D- F B- C- D- 32% 30% 39% C- D- F D+ F C+ F F F
0.98 43% 36% 41% -1 -2 0.96 30% 1.6 .47 26% .21 80% .17 1.15 71% 31% 35% +3 -2 1.05 44% 1.1 .47 19% .32 82% .27
Jan
22		 Southern Indiana F C- F F F 28% 50% 22% F F F C+ F D- B+ B B+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 33% 18% 49% D+ A+ C F F+ A+ F D- F
0.82 57% 28% 18% -10 -5 0.72 18% 1.0 .18 18% .37 77% .29 0.71 38% 22% 8% -28 0 0.45 29% 1.1 .33 24% .49 70% .34
Jan
24		 Morehead St. D+ F F A+ F 45% 28% 28% D- F A+ C- A F A+ A+ A+ D D+ F+ F F 38% 43% 20% A+ F F D+ F A+ F F F
1.09 24% 31% 46% -12 0 0.77 51% 0.9 .49 19% .48 83% .40 1.17 60% 47% 50% +9 -3 1.15 52% 1.0 .52 27% .53 88% .46
Jan
29		 Tennessee Martin D B- F F F 38% 28% 34% C- F+ D+ C+ C- A+ A+ F B+ F F F F F 34% 7% 59% F F D C- D+ A+ F C+ F
1.01 65% 20% 22% -8 -1 0.83 30% 1.0 .30 12% .49 59% .29 1.12 71% 67% 42% +13 +1 1.32 39% 0.9 .36 30% .42 65% .27
Jan
31		 Southeast Missouri St. F F F A+ F+ 49% 20% 31% C+ D- F+ C+ D- F F C- F F F A+ F F 43% 8% 49% F F D+ A+ A+ D+ A+ D- A
0.91 38% 30% 47% -6 +1 0.92 20% 1.2 .23 21% .29 73% .21 1.18 71% 25% 46% +13 +2 1.33 30% 0.6 .17 15% .20 73% .14
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
5		 Tennessee St. D- C- D B- D+ 47% 18% 36% C- D+ F+ A+ B+ F F F+ F C F A- A+ D+ 43% 27% 29% D D+ A+ C+ A F F D+ F
0.99 57% 38% 38% +1 +1 1.07 23% 1.8 .42 25% .29 67% .19 1.12 77% 29% 20% 0 -1 1.00 21% 1.0 .21 10% .44 78% .34
Feb
7		 Tennessee Tech F D F D+ F 39% 37% 24% F F F B- D- C- C+ B+ B- A+ C+ D+ A+ A+ 39% 13% 47% F A F C+ F+ A+ F F F
0.93 53% 28% 33% -6 -2 0.86 22% 1.3 .28 15% .29 81% .24 0.84 53% 40% 17% -14 +1 0.76 40% 1.0 .40 33% .46 85% .39
Feb
10		 Western Illinois F D A F F+ 28% 37% 35% F F F B- D- C- F F F F F C+ F F 25% 35% 39% A F C F D- D F F F
0.97 56% 48% 25% -2 -3 0.93 24% 1.2 .30 15% .23 57% .13 1.10 69% 33% 40% +5 -3 1.06 24% 1.3 .30 15% .43 73% .31
Feb
14		 Arkansas Little Rock C F F A F 46% 25% 29% D F A+ D- B A+ A+ B- A+ D A F C- D+ 33% 33% 33% C C- F+ D+ F+ D+ F B+ D-
1.17 41% 25% 43% -7 0 0.88 49% 0.8 .39 12% .51 73% .38 1.08 47% 47% 35% 0 -2 0.98 36% 1.1 .39 17% .32 61% .20
Feb
19		 Morehead St. F+ C D- F F 48% 22% 30% C- F D A+ B- C+ F A+ C D+ C- F D+ F 49% 13% 38% F F A- A+ A+ A F+ C D-
1.06 58% 33% 19% -8 0 0.87 31% 1.3 .40 14% .24 93% .23 1.10 59% 100% 35% +9 +2 1.24 28% 0.6 .16 23% .37 74% .27
Feb
21		 Southern Indiana D- F B C- F 49% 33% 18% D- F A D- B- C C+ B+ B F B A- F F 28% 39% 33% A+ F C F+ D B F F F
1.04 40% 41% 33% -8 -1 0.84 45% 0.8 .38 15% .34 79% .27 1.07 46% 28% 53% +2 -3 1.00 29% 1.0 .29 20% .44 83% .36
Feb
26		 Lindenwood D+ C F A+ B 39% 43% 18% F C D- F F D+ A+ B+ A+ B- A+ A+ B- A 52% 8% 40% F B+ F B+ D- C+ B+ D B-
1.03 59% 21% 75% +4 -3 1.05 26% 0.3 .06 19% .59 76% .45 0.97 42% 0% 30% -14 +3 0.80 43% 0.9 .40 20% .25 71% .18



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 16.5 24.5 40.9 7th
8th 46.8 46.8 8th
9th 12.3 12.3 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 75.5 24.5 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11 24.5% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.2 24.2
8-12 75.5% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.5 75.1
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 16.0 99.3 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 16.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.5%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 2.1%
Lose Out 55.0%