Florida A&M
Southwestern Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.

Predictive Rating -10.0 318
Results Rating -9.4 315
Consistency 0.12 37
Pace 69.5 146
Improvement +3.0 63

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D- 341 D D- F D+ D+
Defense D+ 250 D C C+ D D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 238 C- 57% 208 -1.7 244
2 Pt. Jumpers 49% 60 D 33% 323 +0.3 163
Three Pointers 39% 218 D 31% 304 -2.8 272
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ -0.6 269 D -3.6 306
1st FG Attempt D 0.94 308
Second Chance D+ 27.3% 265 F 0.84 357 D- 0.23 341
Opponents' Steals D- 11.5% 331
Other Turnovers F+ 9.4% 348
Turnovers F 20.9% 355
Freethrows C- 0.29 227 D- 67% 337 D+ 0.20 280
Total Offense D- -7.5 341

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots D 39% 315 C+ 9.7% 108
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 29% 116 B- 3.4% 64
Three Pointers C+ 85% 164 F 2.3% 362
Total D+ 51% 289 C+ 5.3% 144

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% 75 C- 60% 228 +3.3 295
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% 248 D+ 41% 292 -0.3 170
Three Pointers 39% 253 D- 38% 332 +1.1 242
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ +0.6 277 D +3.4 311
1st FG Attempt D 1.10 318
Second Chance C- 31.3% 225 B- 0.97 90 C 0.30 160
Turnovers from Steals C+ 10.3% 114
Other Turnovers C+ 7.5% 140
Turnovers C+ 17.9% 114
Freethrows D+ 0.34 285 D- 76% 348 D 0.26 315
Total Defense D+ -2.5 250

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C- 50% 208 C 10.6% 189
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 28% 243 D- 1.8% 333
Three Pointers C 83% 159 C- 0.7% 204
Total C 57% 204 C- 5.1% 203

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.8 229 16.6 50
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 225 0.24 351
Consistency 0.13 211 0.10 25
Improvement +1.0 135 +2.0 77

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 334 320 304
Results Rating Rank 337 314 281
Conference Record 9 - 9 10 - 8 11 - 7
Conference Finish 7 5 2
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 16
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Four

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8% 9% 7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 1% 4% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four8% 9% 7%
First Round3% 4% 3%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: Grambling St. (Away) - 32.3% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 4
Quad 20 - 00 - 4
Quad 30 - 30 - 7
Quad 411 - 1111 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 55 @South Florida L 67 - 102 3% -15  17% 0 - 1 F -22 F -11 F B F D- -7 D- C- B+
 Sat, Nov 8 154 Kennesaw St. L 72 - 92 25% -9  10% 0 - 2 F -23 F -15 F D B- D -5 F A C+
 Tue, Nov 11 45 @Central Florida L 60 - 97 2% -22  0% 0 - 3 F -22 F -14 D+ F F D -6 F F A+
 Mon, Nov 17 29 @Georgia L 57 - 87 1% -20  1% 0 - 4 D- -12 F -18 C- F+ F A- +8 A D- B+
 Tue, Dec 2 305 @Jacksonville L 82 - 85 OT 34% +0  42% 0 - 5 D -9 C -0 A+ F F F+ -8 D- C- F
 Wed, Dec 17 305 Jacksonville W 72 - 65 56% +9  99% 1 - 5 C- -5 D+ -4 D+ F B C -1 D- A+ C+
 Fri, Dec 19 223 @Tarleton St. L 54 - 78 18% -14  19% 1 - 6 F -24 F -24 F F F B- +2 C F A+
 Sun, Dec 21 50 @TCU L 56 - 80 2% -5  43% 1 - 7 D -10 D- -6 C+ F A D -5 C C- B-
 Sun, Dec 28 143 @Georgia Tech L 65 - 89 10% -17  0% 1 - 8 F -20 F -10 D F B- F+ -8 F F A+
 Sat, Jan 3 239 @Bethune-Cookman L 83 - 87 20% -4  4% 1 - 9 0 - 1 D+ -5 B +7 C+ C+ C F -12 F C+ F
 Sat, Jan 10 276 Southern W 67 - 59 48% +4  81% 2 - 9 1 - 1 C -1 F+ -10 F+ D+ F A +9 C+ A+ A
 Mon, Jan 12 299 Grambling St. W 91 - 84 54% +3  69% 3 - 9 2 - 1 C- -4 A- +11 A A F+ F -16 F+ F F
 Sat, Jan 17 330 @Arkansas Pine Bluff W 71 - 67 42% +1  65% 4 - 9 3 - 1 C- -4 D -5 C+ C- F C+ +1 C+ F B-
 Mon, Jan 19 365 @Mississippi Valley W 62 - 48 83% +13  99% 5 - 9 4 - 1 D+ -6 F -15 F D F A +10 A- A F+
 Sat, Jan 24 345 Alcorn St. W 66 - 58 70% -0  42% 6 - 9 5 - 1 D+ -8 F -14 C- C+ F B+ +7 C B+ A+
 Mon, Jan 26 344 Jackson St. L 65 - 66 69% +3  85% 6 - 10 5 - 2 F+ -16 F -10 D- F C+ D -6 C F D+
 Sat, Jan 31 309 @Alabama A&M L 65 - 72 34% -8  0% 6 - 11 5 - 3 D- -13 D -5 D- D- F F+ -8 D- B- C-
 Mon, Feb 2 314 @Alabama St. L 66 - 79 36% -3  32% 6 - 12 5 - 4 F -19 F -13 F+ F F D -6 F A A
 Sat, Feb 7 307 Texas Southern L 57 - 62 57% -4  14% 6 - 13 5 - 5 F+ -17 F -19 F F F C+ +2 D- A- A+
 Mon, Feb 9 331 Prairie View W 100 - 96 65% +13  94% 7 - 13 6 - 5 D -10 C -0 A B- F F -10 F C- A
 Sat, Feb 14 344 @Jackson St. L 60 - 80 47% -12  0% 7 - 14 6 - 6 F -29 F -20 F F F+ F+ -9 F C D+
 Mon, Feb 16 345 @Alcorn St. W 86 - 78 48% +10  94% 8 - 14 7 - 6 C -2 B- +4 F A B+ D -6 C+ F F+
 Thu, Feb 19 309 Alabama A&M L 61 - 63 57% -1  17% 8 - 15 7 - 7 D- -14 F -13 D F F+ C -1 F C A-
 Sat, Feb 21 314 Alabama St. W 76 - 63 59% +5  77% 9 - 15 8 - 7 C +1 D+ -3 C+ F+ D B +4 C+ A- F+
 Thu, Feb 26 276 @Southern W 82 - 71 27% +4  48% 10 - 15 9 - 7 B- +8 B- +5 C- A B+ B- +3 B- B- F
 Sat, Feb 28 299 @Grambling St. L 66 - 71 32%
 Thu, Mar 5 239 Bethune-Cookman L 70 - 73 39%
Totals 11 - 16 10 - 8 -10 D- -7 A- D D+ D+ -3 D D- D+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D- C- D D D 37% 49% 39% D+ D D+ F D- F C- D- D+ D+ C- D+ D- D 43% 18% 39% D+ D C- B- C C+ D+ D- D
0.98 57% 33% 31% -4 -1 0.94 27% 0.8 .23 21% .29 67% .20 1.12 60% 41% 38% +3 +1 1.10 31% 1.0 .30 18% .34 76% .22
Nov
3		 South Florida F B- F F F 42% 17% 40% B+ F C- A+ B F A+ C A+ D- C+ A+ F D- 55% 2% 43% F+ D- F A C- B+ F F F
0.84 59% 11% 14% -16 +1 0.71 28% 1.3 .35 26% .44 69% .30 1.27 54% 0% 41% +1 +4 1.12 49% 0.9 .46 19% .61 85% .52
Nov
8		 Kennesaw St. F F F F F 49% 20% 31% C+ F C F D B- A D+ B+ D F C- F F 47% 15% 38% C- F A+ F A C+ F D+ F
0.89 41% 25% 22% -16 +1 0.71 30% 0.8 .23 15% .48 73% .35 1.14 72% 38% 40% +10 +1 1.25 15% 1.5 .22 17% .42 71% .30
Nov
11		 Central Florida F D+ D+ D- D 42% 16% 42% B+ D+ D- F F F A F C- D B A+ F F+ 56% 16% 28% F F F C+ F A+ C+ C+ C+
0.81 52% 38% 29% -6 +1 0.92 18% 0.3 .05 21% .38 55% .21 1.30 56% 22% 69% +11 +2 1.28 47% 1.1 .53 21% .27 75% .21
Nov
17		 Georgia F F B+ D+ D+ 39% 20% 41% C+ C- B- F F+ F C+ F D+ A- F F A+ A+ 46% 10% 44% D+ A F A D- B+ F F F
0.75 44% 44% 32% -6 0 0.91 36% 0.5 .17 33% .27 57% .16 1.14 82% 60% 5% -6 +2 0.94 53% 0.9 .47 17% .55 83% .46
Dec
2		 Jacksonville C A+ F A+ A+ 33% 28% 39% F+ A+ F A+ F F F F F F+ C A+ F+ D 39% 12% 49% D- D- D B- C- F C B C+
1.11 83% 20% 62% +20 -1 1.39 8% 2.0 .16 23% .11 50% .05 1.15 57% 14% 38% -1 +1 1.03 33% 1.0 .33 12% .29 68% .20
Dec
17		 Jacksonville D+ B+ C+ D+ C 39% 31% 31% F+ D+ D+ F F B A+ F B+ C B+ A+ F D 49% 11% 40% F D- A- A+ A+ C+ C- D D+
1.10 68% 40% 33% +4 -1 1.08 27% 0.4 .10 12% .51 59% .30 1.00 48% 0% 47% -1 +2 1.04 23% 0.6 .13 18% .30 75% .23
Dec
19		 Tarleton St. F F+ F F F 43% 13% 45% B F F D+ F F B+ F C- B- A F F C+ 61% 20% 18% F C D F F A+ F C+ F+
0.70 50% 17% 19% -16 +1 0.72 23% 1.0 .23 30% .44 63% .27 1.00 43% 50% 44% -4 +2 0.98 34% 1.3 .46 26% .40 74% .29
Dec
21		 TCU D- D- A+ D+ B 32% 34% 34% F C+ F F F A C+ F F+ D D- A+ D C 36% 16% 48% C C F+ B+ C- B- D- F F
0.86 47% 56% 31% +1 -2 1.00 13% 0.5 .06 15% .27 47% .13 1.23 67% 13% 38% +2 0 1.06 42% 0.9 .39 17% .41 86% .35
Dec
28		 Georgia Tech F C- C+ F D+ 25% 27% 48% D D C+ F F B- D+ F F F+ F D- F F 67% 16% 18% F F F B- F A+ F F+ F
0.88 53% 38% 28% -6 -2 0.87 30% 0.6 .18 15% .25 38% .10 1.20 70% 43% 63% +16 +3 1.40 44% 1.1 .48 27% .41 77% .31
Jan
3		 Bethune-Cookman B B D A- B 35% 29% 35% F C+ F+ A+ C+ C B A+ A F F D- B+ F 41% 24% 35% C+ F A- F+ C+ F F F F
1.16 61% 33% 39% +2 -1 1.04 24% 1.6 .39 15% .36 82% .30 1.21 80% 42% 29% +7 0 1.16 22% 1.2 .26 14% .55 76% .42
Jan
10		 Southern F+ B- F F+ F 38% 14% 48% B- F+ B F D+ F B A+ A A C+ F A+ C+ 32% 29% 39% B- C+ D+ A+ A+ A F B- F
1.00 63% 17% 30% -4 +1 0.95 38% 0.8 .31 27% .41 85% .35 0.88 54% 58% 19% -4 -2 0.90 31% 0.5 .15 21% .51 67% .34
Jan
12		 Grambling St. A- A+ A+ C- A+ 28% 21% 51% F+ A B- A A F+ A+ A A+ F D+ C+ D- F+ 50% 18% 32% F+ F+ C F F F F F F
1.26 77% 70% 33% +12 -1 1.23 37% 1.3 .48 23% .47 81% .38 1.16 60% 33% 38% +2 +1 1.08 28% 1.4 .40 17% .43 85% .36
Jan
17		 Arkansas Pine Bluff D A+ F C B- 38% 19% 43% D+ C+ C- C- C- F A+ F B C+ D- B- B+ C 33% 28% 40% B- C+ A F F B- D- F F
1.08 81% 13% 33% +4 0 1.10 34% 1.1 .38 24% .48 67% .32 1.02 64% 33% 29% -2 -1 0.95 18% 2.0 .36 20% .36 84% .30
Jan
19		 Mississippi Valley F C- D- F F 33% 20% 47% D+ F C F+ D F F+ B+ D A A C A+ B+ 15% 45% 40% A A- B A+ A F+ C+ C- C
0.96 60% 33% 29% -4 0 0.93 37% 1.1 .40 30% .33 80% .26 0.75 43% 38% 21% -10 -5 0.72 20% 0.5 .10 17% .26 71% .19
Jan
24		 Alcorn St. F B- F C- C- 53% 10% 38% B C- D A+ C+ F D F F+ B+ B+ F A+ B- 52% 19% 29% F C C A+ B+ A+ D- D F+
0.99 67% 25% 33% +3 +2 1.13 33% 1.4 .48 29% .30 64% .19 0.87 48% 67% 21% -5 +1 0.94 26% 0.6 .16 26% .30 73% .22
Jan
26		 Jackson St. F A+ F F D 25% 29% 46% F D- D- F F C+ D+ F F D F A+ D D+ 21% 40% 40% A+ C F D F D+ F B+ F
1.05 92% 21% 27% -1 -2 0.96 31% 0.8 .26 15% .32 53% .17 1.06 67% 24% 35% -3 -4 0.88 38% 1.1 .41 18% .41 71% .29
Jan
31		 Alabama A&M D F F A+ D 41% 27% 32% D D- B+ F D- F A+ B A+ F+ B- A+ F F+ 32% 23% 45% C D- F+ A+ B- C- F F F
1.04 41% 27% 54% 0 -1 1.00 38% 0.6 .24 21% .48 75% .36 1.15 50% 20% 45% +1 -1 1.02 31% 0.7 .22 16% .44 91% .40
Feb
2		 Alabama St. F F A+ D F 47% 14% 39% B- F+ F F F F D B D+ D B- F F F 35% 25% 39% C+ F C- A+ A A C F+ D+
0.91 43% 57% 32% -6 +1 0.94 24% 0.9 .21 23% .32 78% .25 1.09 50% 54% 50% +11 -1 1.22 31% 0.5 .14 23% .29 75% .22
Feb
7		 Texas Southern F F D+ D+ F 30% 26% 44% F F A- F F F A- D- B C+ A+ F F F+ 46% 26% 28% D+ D- D- A+ A- A+ A F B+
0.89 46% 36% 32% -6 -1 0.88 41% 0.3 .12 25% .44 67% .29 0.97 38% 67% 46% +3 0 1.09 30% 0.6 .17 23% .20 80% .16
Feb
9		 Prairie View C B F A+ A+ 47% 27% 25% D+ A B- C+ B- F A F B F F+ A+ F F 52% 22% 26% F F C- C- C- A F A F
1.16 65% 20% 71% +13 0 1.27 39% 1.2 .45 27% .46 66% .30 1.12 64% 25% 43% +4 +1 1.11 24% 1.1 .27 21% .59 68% .40
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
14		 Jackson St. F F F F F 31% 29% 40% F F F F F F+ A+ A+ A+ F+ D- F+ D- F 52% 26% 22% F F F A+ C D+ D- D+ F+
0.86 50% 23% 22% -14 -2 0.71 20% 0.9 .17 19% .48 89% .43 1.15 62% 46% 36% +5 0 1.12 38% 0.7 .26 17% .33 79% .26
Feb
16		 Alcorn St. B- D F B F+ 35% 24% 41% F F C- A+ A B+ A+ D A+ D C+ C+ B C+ 46% 29% 25% C C+ C- F F F+ F F F
1.20 56% 27% 37% -1 -1 0.98 36% 1.7 .61 15% .50 70% .35 1.09 54% 33% 31% -4 -1 0.92 27% 1.8 .47 15% .38 87% .33
Feb
19		 Alabama A&M F D- F B D 31% 16% 53% D+ D D F F F+ F C F C D B- F F 45% 27% 27% D+ F A+ F C A- B+ F C+
0.97 53% 25% 38% 0 0 1.02 28% 0.6 .17 19% .14 71% .10 1.00 60% 33% 42% +3 0 1.07 13% 2.0 .25 21% .28 86% .24
Feb
21		 Alabama St. D+ A+ B F B- 40% 21% 38% D+ C+ C F F+ D A+ F B B A+ B- F+ C 34% 30% 36% B+ C+ A+ D- A- F+ F A+ C
1.09 79% 40% 28% +5 0 1.13 34% 0.8 .26 20% .50 61% .30 0.90 41% 33% 39% -5 -2 0.90 17% 1.0 .17 14% .40 50% .20
Feb
26		 Southern B- C- B C D+ 52% 14% 34% A- C- B A A B+ B C- B- B- A+ C D- B 34% 21% 45% D B- B+ D B- F F B+ F
1.17 58% 43% 35% +1 +2 1.08 38% 1.4 .52 16% .40 75% .30 1.01 33% 36% 38% -6 0 0.89 24% 1.1 .26 10% .44 64% .28



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.5 7.2 7.7 2nd
3rd 5.5 5.4 10.9 3rd
4th 0.0 17.6 0.9 18.6 4th
5th 4.9 16.5 21.4 5th
6th 20.1 4.5 24.6 6th
7th 16.8 16.8 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 41.9 44.7 13.5 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 13.5% 10.6% 10.6% 16.0 1.4 12.1
10-8 44.7% 8.1% 8.1% 16.0 3.6 41.1
9-9 41.9% 6.1% 6.1% 16.0 2.6 39.3
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 7.6% 7.6% 0.0% 16.0 92.4 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.4% 100.0% 16.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.7%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 3.7%
Lose Out 25.4%