Houston Christian
Southland
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.

Predictive Rating -7.9 294
Results Rating -7.5 284
Consistency 0.12 55
Pace 61.5 345
Improvement +0.9 149

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D+ 272 D+ D C- D C
Defense D+ 294 D- D C+ C+ D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% 133 C- 55% 248 -0.2 191
2 Pt. Jumpers 44% 113 D 34% 304 -0.3 190
Three Pointers 38% 247 D+ 32% 263 -2.7 266
Shot Selection/Accuracy C -0.1 207 D+ -3.0 287
1st FG Attempt D+ 0.96 283
Second Chance C- 28.8% 223 D- 0.89 342 D 0.26 307
Opponents' Steals C 9.5% 176
Other Turnovers D+ 8.2% 287
Turnovers C- 17.6% 241
Freethrows D+ 0.27 277 D 69% 295 D 0.19 303
Total Offense D+ -3.8 272

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots B- 55% 70 D+ 12.5% 279
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B- 31% 95 C 5.6% 227
Three Pointers C 83% 202 B 0.3% 41
Total B- 59% 106 D+ 6.4% 266

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% 52 D- 65% 343 +6.1 352
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% 296 C 38% 179 -1.4 73
Three Pointers 39% 223 D+ 36% 291 +0.7 220
Shot Selection/Accuracy D +0.8 326 D- +4.4 332
1st FG Attempt D- 1.13 336
Second Chance D+ 33.1% 293 D 1.11 295 D 0.37 315
Turnovers from Steals C+ 10.1% 134
Other Turnovers C 7.4% 148
Turnovers C+ 17.6% 129
Freethrows C+ 0.29 139 C- 73% 239 C+ 0.21 144
Total Defense D+ -4.1 294

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D 56% 318 C 10.6% 188
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 27% 211 C- 4.4% 201
Three Pointers D 88% 301 B 1.7% 46
Total D 61% 309 C+ 6.0% 143

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 19.2 340 17.5 218
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 272 0.19 256
Consistency 0.16 358 0.11 104
Improvement -1.9 286 +2.8 53

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 309 295 273
Results Rating Rank 303 282 252
Conference Record 7 - 15 8 - 14 9 - 13
Conference Finish 10 8 7
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 0% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 1%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: Stephen F. Austin (Home) - 19.1% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 31 - 61 - 11
Quad 49 - 910 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 132 @UC San Diego L 60 - 78 12% -13  17% 0 - 1 D- -13 F -11 C+ F F C- -3 F+ C C+
 Thu, Nov 13 353 Louisiana Monroe W 72 - 61 82% -3  32% 1 - 1 D+ -7 F -14 F F B- A- +7 C- A A
 Tue, Nov 25 292 Bellarmine L 69 - 74 49% +1  48% 1 - 2 D- -13 D- -7 F B+ B D -6 F A+ B
 Wed, Nov 26 349 @The Citadel W 72 - 65 60% +6  96% 2 - 2 C- -3 B +5 B- B- D D- -8 D+ F D
 Sat, Nov 29 261 @Georgia Southern L 62 - 80 30% -6  6% 2 - 3 F -21 F -13 F+ F+ F+ D- -8 F D D-
 Tue, Dec 2 141 @North Texas L 75 - 77 13% -1  35% 2 - 4 C+ +2 A+ +15 A+ F A+ F -13 F F+ A+
 Sat, Dec 6 193 @New Orleans W 85 - 76 20% +4  77% 3 - 4 1 - 0 B +10 A +14 C+ A- A+ D+ -3 D- B+ F
 Sat, Dec 13 290 SE Louisiana L 71 - 74 OT 60% -3  4% 3 - 5 1 - 1 D- -14 D- -7 C- D F+ D- -6 D D+ C+
 Mon, Dec 15 85 McNeese St. L 68 - 78 14% +1  56% 3 - 6 1 - 2 D+ -6 B +6 D B+ A+ F -13 F F C
 Wed, Dec 17 253 @Nicholls St. L 64 - 79 29% -11  0% 3 - 7 1 - 3 F+ -17 F -12 D F+ F D -6 D D F
 Mon, Dec 29 8 @Iowa St. L 61 - 89 1% -12  2% 3 - 8 C- -4 C+ +2 B F B D- -7 A+ F C-
 Sat, Jan 3 270 @Incarnate Word L 56 - 73 33% -9  0% 3 - 9 1 - 4 F -20 F -21 F F F C -0 D+ B+ F+
 Mon, Jan 5 198 TX A&M Corpus Christi L 65 - 81 40% -8  10% 3 - 10 1 - 5 F -21 F+ -9 F+ C+ F F -12 F F D
 Sat, Jan 10 103 @Stephen F. Austin L 67 - 85 8% -15  0% 3 - 11 1 - 6 D -11 B- +4 A- D+ F F -17 F+ F D-
 Mon, Jan 12 220 @Lamar L 56 - 64 24% +1  59% 3 - 12 1 - 7 D -8 F -11 F D- D C+ +2 F+ B+ A+
 Sat, Jan 17 308 East Texas A&M W 81 - 70 65% -3  25% 4 - 12 2 - 7 C -1 B- +4 C+ C+ F+ D+ -5 F B B
 Mon, Jan 19 269 Northwestern St. W 82 - 80 55% -4  4% 5 - 12 3 - 7 D+ -7 A+ +25 A+ A+ C- F -32 F F D
 Sat, Jan 24 144 UT Rio Grande Valley L 51 - 68 28% -8  10% 5 - 13 3 - 8 F -19 F -18 C D- F D+ -4 F A+ C+
 Tue, Jan 27 270 Incarnate Word W 81 - 75 55% -6  21% 6 - 13 4 - 8 C- -3 D+ -4 F A- F+ C +0 F+ C A+
 Sat, Jan 31 198 @TX A&M Corpus Christi L 71 - 73 21% -0  45% 6 - 14 4 - 9 C -1 A- +10 A+ F C F -11 F A- C
 Mon, Feb 2 144 @UT Rio Grande Valley L 57 - 74 13% -15  0% 6 - 15 4 - 10 D- -13 F+ -9 F+ F A+ D -6 B- F A
 Sat, Feb 7 290 @SE Louisiana L 47 - 55 37% -6  1% 6 - 16 4 - 11 D- -13 F -17 F F D+ B- +2 F+ D+ A+
 Mon, Feb 9 85 @McNeese St. L 69 - 73 6% -5  4% 6 - 17 4 - 12 B- +6 C +1 D+ D+ B B +5 F+ A- B+
 Sat, Feb 14 193 New Orleans W 61 - 60 39% +1  45% 7 - 17 5 - 12 C- -4 F -10 D C- F B+ +7 A- C D-
 Mon, Feb 16 253 Nicholls St. W 72 - 68 51% +5  77% 8 - 17 6 - 12 C- -4 D -5 F C- A+ C+ +1 A F D+
 Sat, Feb 21 269 @Northwestern St. L 53 - 71 33% -10  10% 8 - 18 6 - 13 F -21 F -17 F D- F D -6 C F F
 Mon, Feb 23 308 @East Texas A&M W 69 - 68 42% +8  83% 9 - 18 7 - 13 C- -5 C- -1 F+ B C D+ -4 C+ F A
 Sat, Feb 28 103 Stephen F. Austin L 64 - 73 19%
 Mon, Mar 2 220 Lamar L 66 - 68 45%
Totals 10 - 19 8 - 14 -8 D+ -4 A- D+ C D+ -4 D+ D D



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D+ C- D D+ D+ 40% 44% 38% C D+ C- D- D C- D+ D D D+ D- C D+ D- 44% 17% 39% D D- D+ D D C+ C+ C- C+
1.03 55% 34% 32% -3 0 0.96 29% 0.9 .26 18% .27 69% .19 1.14 65% 38% 36% +4 +1 1.13 33% 1.1 .37 18% .29 73% .20
Nov
8		 UC San Diego F B+ F C- C+ 34% 22% 44% C- C+ F F+ F F C F F C- D- C F F 36% 16% 48% B F+ C C+ C C+ B F C+
0.86 65% 27% 32% -2 0 0.98 19% 0.9 .16 23% .26 36% .09 1.12 67% 38% 42% +9 0 1.20 27% 1.0 .27 17% .23 77% .17
Nov
13		 Louisiana Monroe F D F D F 45% 11% 45% B F F+ F F B- F A+ D- A- C+ C C+ C- 43% 15% 42% F+ C- A+ C A A A+ F A+
1.03 56% 33% 32% -3 +2 1.00 28% 0.9 .25 14% .17 80% .13 0.87 52% 38% 32% -4 +1 0.96 12% 1.0 .12 21% .13 86% .11
Nov
25		 Bellarmine D- A- F C F 32% 25% 43% D F D- A+ B+ B A+ F F D F A+ F+ F 45% 19% 36% B F A+ A+ A+ B F F F
1.13 71% 18% 37% +1 -1 1.02 29% 1.7 .50 13% .45 38% .17 1.21 89% 25% 40% +15 +1 1.33 6% 0.0 .00 18% .40 90% .36
Nov
26		 The Citadel B A+ A+ D B- 38% 13% 49% C B- C+ B- B- D D+ F D D- C- A+ F+ D 30% 15% 55% C- D+ F+ F F D B F D+
1.23 82% 50% 32% +9 +1 1.22 35% 1.1 .38 17% .27 62% .16 1.11 57% 0% 38% -2 0 0.98 32% 1.2 .39 15% .22 91% .20
Nov
29		 Georgia Southern F D F F F 52% 9% 39% B+ F+ D F F+ F+ F F F D- D+ A+ F F 46% 9% 44% D- F F+ C+ D D- C+ A+ A
0.93 54% 25% 28% -7 +3 0.93 30% 0.8 .24 22% .29 67% .19 1.20 60% 20% 42% +4 +2 1.15 32% 1.1 .35 12% .31 56% .17
Dec
2		 North Texas A+ A C+ A+ A+ 39% 18% 43% B- A+ F F F A+ A+ F A F D- A+ F F 61% 5% 34% F F C F F+ A+ D- A+ A-
1.21 71% 38% 42% +10 0 1.23 21% 0.3 .06 6% .55 59% .33 1.24 64% 0% 64% +17 +4 1.44 35% 1.2 .42 24% .40 47% .19
Dec
6		 New Orleans A C- B- B- C+ 46% 19% 35% C+ C+ C+ A+ A- A+ A+ B- A+ D+ C- A+ F D 44% 12% 44% F D- A- C+ B+ F C+ A+ B+
1.29 55% 44% 35% 0 +1 1.04 36% 1.3 .45 8% .49 77% .38 1.15 59% 17% 41% +2 +2 1.10 29% 1.0 .29 14% .35 65% .23
Dec
13		 SE Louisiana D- C- F C D 48% 12% 40% A C- B- F D F+ D F F+ D- C B- C- D 39% 24% 37% D+ D D+ D+ D+ C+ F D- F
1.01 58% 17% 35% -2 +2 1.02 34% 0.8 .29 23% .33 67% .22 1.05 58% 33% 33% -2 0 0.98 30% 1.0 .30 19% .44 72% .31
Dec
15		 McNeese St. B F F A+ D+ 27% 27% 47% F+ D C A+ B+ A+ D A C F F D A+ F 46% 19% 35% C- F B F F C A+ D+ A+
1.13 42% 17% 43% -4 -2 0.91 34% 1.3 .46 17% .34 82% .28 1.30 86% 44% 24% +9 +1 1.21 30% 2.1 .65 13% .17 78% .13
Dec
17		 Nicholls St. F C B F D- 62% 17% 21% B+ D F A+ F+ F A+ F B+ D F F B+ D- 39% 19% 42% C D C- F D F A+ F A-
0.93 62% 43% 22% -1 +2 1.05 19% 1.4 .27 26% .49 64% .31 1.14 68% 45% 29% +2 0 1.07 26% 1.2 .31 10% .18 73% .13
Dec
29		 Iowa St. C+ A+ B- D A 19% 45% 36% F B F A+ F B A A+ A+ D- F A+ A+ A+ 41% 25% 34% B A+ F F F C- F D F
0.92 89% 38% 29% +3 -4 1.00 10% 1.3 .13 21% .32 82% .27 1.34 83% 9% 27% -1 0 1.00 53% 1.4 .75 14% .66 71% .47
Jan
3		 Incarnate Word F F+ F F F 53% 19% 28% C+ F C F F F F F F C F F+ A D+ 36% 20% 45% D+ D+ A C- B+ F+ A- D B
0.84 50% 30% 27% -9 +1 0.87 32% 0.3 .10 21% .21 55% .11 1.09 65% 45% 28% 0 0 1.02 24% 1.0 .24 12% .20 75% .15
Jan
5		 TX A&M Corpus Christi F+ B F+ F F+ 35% 20% 45% D+ F+ B- C C+ F D C+ D F D- F B- F 46% 23% 31% C F F C- F D A F B
0.94 65% 30% 23% -7 0 0.88 32% 1.0 .32 25% .36 74% .27 1.17 63% 50% 31% +4 0 1.10 45% 1.0 .45 16% .26 73% .19
Jan
10		 Stephen F. Austin B- A C+ D+ A- 45% 17% 38% B- A- C F+ D+ F A- A A F F F C+ D- 40% 8% 52% F F+ F B+ F D- C+ F D+
1.07 68% 43% 31% +4 +1 1.12 30% 0.9 .26 22% .35 82% .29 1.36 67% 50% 33% +4 +2 1.13 49% 0.9 .43 10% .21 83% .18
Jan
12		 Lamar F F+ F F F 43% 21% 36% C+ F B F D- D A C A- C+ D B+ F+ D- 36% 21% 43% F F+ B+ B- B+ A+ F D F
0.90 50% 22% 27% -11 0 0.81 36% 0.6 .23 19% .46 70% .32 1.03 60% 33% 39% +3 0 1.07 29% 0.9 .25 26% .50 74% .37
Jan
17		 East Texas A&M B- D- D A+ C+ 43% 13% 43% C+ C+ B- D+ C+ F+ A+ D A+ D+ F+ A- F F 38% 15% 48% D+ F F+ A+ B B D- A+ C+
1.18 50% 33% 45% +3 +1 1.11 35% 1.1 .38 20% .55 67% .37 1.02 67% 29% 39% +6 +1 1.15 30% 0.6 .18 20% .29 50% .15
Jan
19		 Northwestern St. A+ C- A+ A+ A+ 41% 13% 46% B- A+ A+ A A+ C- A+ C+ A+ F F+ F D- F 46% 15% 39% F F F F F D F D- F
1.48 56% 60% 56% +17 +1 1.38 50% 1.4 .68 18% .48 73% .35 1.44 63% 67% 38% +9 +1 1.22 48% 1.3 .61 14% .51 79% .40
Jan
24		 UT Rio Grande Valley F D B- B+ C 37% 24% 39% C- C C F D- F F F F D+ F+ A+ F F 58% 4% 38% F F A A+ A+ C+ A+ F A+
0.84 53% 40% 38% +1 -1 1.02 32% 0.6 .18 31% .19 63% .12 1.12 68% 0% 44% +10 +4 1.29 20% 0.4 .08 18% .08 100% .08
Jan
27		 Incarnate Word D+ D F F F 61% 15% 24% B+ F A+ D+ A- F+ A+ B+ A+ C A+ F F F+ 39% 18% 43% D- F+ F A+ C A+ F A+ F+
1.12 54% 29% 27% -7 +2 0.93 45% 1.1 .48 19% .64 78% .50 1.04 37% 56% 48% +4 0 1.10 41% 0.7 .30 28% .42 59% .25
Jan
31		 TX A&M Corpus Christi A- C- B- A+ A+ 29% 24% 46% D- A+ B F F C C A+ A- F F A+ F+ F 60% 13% 28% F F F A+ A- C F C F+
1.17 58% 40% 53% +14 -1 1.27 34% 0.2 .07 20% .41 85% .35 1.20 71% 17% 38% +7 +3 1.21 37% 0.5 .19 18% .42 67% .28
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
2		 UT Rio Grande Valley F+ F B- D+ F 42% 20% 38% B- F+ D+ F F A+ F A- F D A- A D+ B+ 41% 9% 50% F+ B- F F F A F F F
0.92 43% 40% 32% -7 0 0.88 29% 0.3 .10 11% .24 77% .18 1.20 50% 25% 36% -3 +2 1.00 47% 1.3 .59 23% .38 94% .36
Feb
7		 SE Louisiana F F+ F F F 46% 23% 31% B- F B+ F F D+ C- C C- B- D- F C+ F 34% 27% 39% C+ F+ F B+ D+ A+ A+ A+ A+
0.83 50% 11% 25% -14 0 0.74 37% 0.5 .17 21% .36 75% .27 0.97 64% 45% 31% +3 -1 1.05 37% 0.8 .30 28% .17 57% .10
Feb
9		 McNeese St. C C A F D+ 40% 23% 36% C- D+ D C+ D+ B C- A+ B+ B D+ F B D- 60% 19% 21% F+ F+ A+ F+ A- B+ C B+ C+
1.02 58% 45% 24% -4 0 0.94 29% 1.1 .32 22% .36 89% .32 1.08 62% 56% 30% +4 +2 1.15 22% 1.2 .26 16% .30 71% .21
Feb
14		 New Orleans F B- A F D+ 33% 26% 41% F+ D F+ A C- F F D+ F B+ B- B- A+ A 54% 29% 17% D+ A- C- C+ C D- B+ A+ A+
0.98 60% 50% 21% -4 -1 0.91 27% 1.2 .33 19% .28 71% .20 0.97 54% 36% 13% -8 0 0.85 36% 1.0 .36 16% .31 56% .17
Feb
16		 Nicholls St. D D+ D+ F F 39% 35% 27% F F F A+ C- A+ A D- B+ C+ A+ F A+ A+ 43% 24% 33% B- A B F F D+ F D- F
1.07 58% 35% 23% -5 -2 0.88 25% 1.4 .36 10% .43 73% .31 1.01 43% 50% 19% -11 0 0.80 22% 1.8 .38 15% .42 71% .30
Feb
21		 Northwestern St. F F D D F 39% 25% 36% D F F B- D- F F D- F D D+ D+ A+ C- 40% 35% 25% B- C C+ F F F D+ D- D
0.84 35% 36% 31% -11 -1 0.80 24% 1.2 .30 22% .24 67% .16 1.12 58% 41% 25% -2 -2 0.94 23% 1.6 .37 11% .34 79% .27
Feb
23		 East Texas A&M C- C D F F 43% 18% 39% C- F+ A- D+ B C D+ D D D+ C+ B- A- B- 40% 15% 45% D+ C+ F F F A F F F
1.08 57% 33% 26% -6 +1 0.92 41% 1.1 .43 17% .28 67% .19 1.06 56% 33% 28% -6 +1 0.93 34% 1.8 .62 23% .35 76% .26



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 25.4 8.7 34.1 7th
8th 18.2 0.5 18.7 8th
9th 38.8 1.9 40.7 9th
10th 6.4 6.4 10th
11th 0.1 0.1 11th
12th 12th
Total 45.3 45.5 9.2 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4
17-5
16-6
15-7
14-8
13-9
12-10
11-11
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4
17-5
16-6
15-7
14-8
13-9
12-10
11-11
10-12
9-13 9.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 9.2
8-14 45.5% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 45.5
7-15 45.3% 45.3
6-16
5-17
4-18
3-19
2-20
1-21
0-22
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 100.0 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.8%
Lose Out 45.3%