Houston Christian
Southland
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.3#276
Expected Predictive Rating-8.0#284
Pace62.8#337
Improvement-0.8#245

Offense
Total Offense-3.5#267
First Shot-1.1#203
After Offensive Rebound-2.4#315
Layup/Dunks+1.9#113
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#203
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#144
Freethrows-3.6#346
Improvement+1.2#64

Defense
Total Defense-2.9#265
First Shot-5.3#331
After Offensive Rebounds+2.4#49
Layups/Dunks-2.2#263
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#148
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.0#316
Freethrows+0.2#175
Improvement-2.0#332
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.4% 2.2% 1.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.8 14.5 15.1
.500 or above 18.4% 31.4% 12.2%
.500 or above in Conference 28.0% 37.8% 23.3%
Conference Champion 0.7% 1.1% 0.4%
Last Place in Conference 18.8% 13.1% 21.6%
First Four0.2% 0.1% 0.2%
First Round1.3% 2.2% 0.9%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Georgia Southern (Away) - 32.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 32 - 72 - 11
Quad 49 - 711 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Sat, Nov 8 96 @UC San Diego L 60-78 9%     0 - 1 -9.6 -9.8 +0.1
  Thu, Nov 13 361 Louisiana Monroe W 72-61 84%     1 - 1 -6.1 -9.3 +3.1
  Tue, Nov 25 294 Bellarmine L 69-74 54%     1 - 2 -12.4 -1.1 -12.0
  Wed, Nov 26 358 @The Citadel W 72-65 67%     2 - 2 -3.8 +4.9 -7.3
  Sat, Nov 29 246 @Georgia Southern L 70-75 32%    
  Tue, Dec 2 123 @North Texas L 57-69 13%    
  Sat, Dec 6 205 @New Orleans L 68-74 27%    
  Sat, Dec 13 250 SE Louisiana W 67-65 55%    
  Mon, Dec 15 82 McNeese St. L 62-72 17%    
  Wed, Dec 17 270 @Nicholls St. L 66-70 38%    
  Mon, Dec 29 4 @Iowa St. L 56-85 0.5%   
  Sat, Jan 3 192 @Incarnate Word L 65-72 25%    
  Mon, Jan 5 226 TX A&M Corpus Christi W 67-66 52%    
  Sat, Jan 10 139 @Stephen F. Austin L 62-73 17%    
  Mon, Jan 12 199 @Lamar L 61-68 27%    
  Sat, Jan 17 308 East Texas A&M W 69-64 66%    
  Mon, Jan 19 285 Northwestern St. W 68-65 62%    
  Sat, Jan 24 202 UT Rio Grande Valley L 72-73 47%    
  Mon, Jan 26 192 Incarnate Word L 68-69 45%    
  Sat, Jan 31 226 @TX A&M Corpus Christi L 64-69 32%    
  Mon, Feb 2 202 @UT Rio Grande Valley L 69-76 28%    
  Sat, Feb 7 250 @SE Louisiana L 64-68 35%    
  Mon, Feb 9 82 @McNeese St. L 59-75 8%    
  Sat, Feb 14 205 New Orleans L 70-71 48%    
  Mon, Feb 16 270 Nicholls St. W 69-67 59%    
  Sat, Feb 21 285 @Northwestern St. L 65-68 41%    
  Mon, Feb 23 308 @East Texas A&M L 66-67 45%    
  Sat, Feb 28 139 Stephen F. Austin L 65-70 34%    
  Mon, Mar 2 199 Lamar L 64-65 47%    
Projected Record 11 - 18 9 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.9 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 3.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.3 1.5 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 4.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 2.1 2.3 1.0 0.3 0.0 6.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 2.3 2.8 1.3 0.2 0.0 7.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 2.9 3.6 1.2 0.2 0.0 8.5 6th
7th 0.1 0.6 3.0 4.2 1.6 0.1 0.0 9.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 3.1 4.7 1.8 0.3 10.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.8 3.2 4.9 2.2 0.3 0.0 11.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 1.1 3.8 4.9 2.4 0.3 0.0 12.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.8 3.8 3.9 2.0 0.3 0.0 12.6 11th
12th 0.1 0.7 1.7 3.0 3.5 2.6 1.2 0.2 0.0 13.0 12th
Total 0.1 0.7 1.8 3.6 5.4 7.6 9.6 11.1 11.3 10.8 10.0 8.4 6.5 5.3 3.2 2.2 1.3 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0
21-1
20-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-3 92.3% 0.1    0.1 0.0
18-4 51.6% 0.2    0.1 0.0 0.0
17-5 15.3% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-6 15.8% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
15-7 1.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-8 0.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-9 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-10 0.0%
11-11 0.0%
Total 0.7% 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0
21-1
20-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0
19-3 0.1% 38.5% 38.5% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.1
18-4 0.3% 24.7% 24.7% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
17-5 0.6% 16.4% 16.4% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5
16-6 1.3% 17.3% 17.3% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.1
15-7 2.2% 9.9% 9.9% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 2.0
14-8 3.2% 6.2% 6.2% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 3.0
13-9 5.3% 3.0% 3.0% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 5.1
12-10 6.5% 1.8% 1.8% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 6.4
11-11 8.4% 1.4% 1.4% 15.9 0.0 0.1 8.3
10-12 10.0% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 9.9
9-13 10.8% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 10.7
8-14 11.3% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 11.3
7-15 11.1% 11.1
6-16 9.6% 9.6
5-17 7.6% 7.6
4-18 5.4% 5.4
3-19 3.6% 3.6
2-20 1.8% 1.8
1-21 0.7% 0.7
0-22 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.4 98.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%