Houston Christian
Southland
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -8.1 #301
Expected Predictive Rating -10.9 #328
Pace 62.8 #336
Improvement -1.9 #281

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #258 C- F C D- C
Defense #327 F D+ C B- D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #111 1.20 #126 +2.3 #106
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #171 0.62 #332 -1.2 #239
Three Pointers 38% #247 0.96 #244 -2.5 #273
1st FG Attempt 0.99 #212 -1.5 #213
Freethrows 16.1 #252 64% #355 10.4 #306
Second Chance 26.3% #302 0.89 #332 0.24 #336
Turnovers 16.8% #187
Total Offense -3.1 #258

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #110 1.38 #360 -5.9 #348
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #301 0.67 #62 +2.2 #39
Three Pointers 42% #141 1.08 #275 -2.2 #276
1st FG Attempt 1.13 #340 -5.9 #339
Freethrows 14.5 #46 78% #350 11.3 #267
Second Chance 31.0% #194 1.15 #307 0.36 #273
Turnovers 16.4% #196
Total Defense -5.0 #327

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.3% #171 1.4% #294
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -3.2% #223 10.1% #331
Possession Length 18.9 #328 17.7 #254
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 #251 0.20 #270
Improvement -0.7 #224 -1.3 #260

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 2.0% 2.8% 0.3%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 43.2% 32.1% 65.4%
First Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: East Texas A&M (Home) - 66.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 31 - 71 - 12
Quad 47 - 98 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 109 @UC San Diego L 60 - 78 9% -13  0 - 1 -11 -9 C F F -2 D- B B
 Thu, Nov 13 354 Louisiana Monroe W 72 - 61 79% -3  1 - 1 -5 -10 F F C+ +4 C A+ A
 Tue, Nov 25 294 Bellarmine L 69 - 74 49% +1  1 - 2 -13 -2 F A+ B -11 F A+ C
 Wed, Nov 26 358 @The Citadel W 72 - 65 65% +6  2 - 2 -5 +5 B- C F -8 D F F
 Sat, Nov 29 230 @Georgia Southern L 62 - 80 24% -6  2 - 3 -19 -10 F F F -10 F D F
 Tue, Dec 2 137 @North Texas L 75 - 77 13% -1  2 - 4 +2 +19 A+ F A+ -17 F F A+
 Sat, Dec 6 245 @New Orleans W 85 - 76 27% +4  3 - 4 1 - 0 +7 +13 C+ B+ A+ -6 F A+ F
 Sat, Dec 13 266 SE Louisiana L 71 - 74 OT 53% -3  3 - 5 1 - 1 -12 -4 C- D- D -8 D+ D B-
 Mon, Dec 15 80 McNeese St. L 68 - 78 13% +1  3 - 6 1 - 2 -6 +8 C- C+ A+ -15 F F C
 Wed, Dec 17 205 @Nicholls St. L 64 - 79 21% -11  3 - 7 1 - 3 -15 -8 D F F -7 C- D- F
 Mon, Dec 29 6 @Iowa St. L 61 - 89 1% -12  3 - 8 -4 +4 B F A -10 A+ F C-
 Sat, Jan 3 187 @Incarnate Word L 56 - 73 19% -9  3 - 9 1 - 4 -16 -13 F F F -3 C B D+
 Mon, Jan 5 182 TX A&M Corpus Christi L 65 - 81 37% -8  3 - 10 1 - 5 -21 -6 D- C+ F -14 F F C
 Sat, Jan 10 108 @Stephen F. Austin L 67 - 85 8% -15  3 - 11 1 - 6 -11 +8 A+ C- F -21 F D- F
 Mon, Jan 12 220 @Lamar L 56 - 64 23% +1  3 - 12 1 - 7 -8 -7 F F C -3 F A- A+
 Sat, Jan 17 321 East Texas A&M W 73 - 68 67%
 Mon, Jan 19 276 Northwestern St. W 71 - 69 56%
 Sat, Jan 24 235 UT Rio Grande Valley L 70 - 71 46%
 Mon, Jan 26 187 Incarnate Word L 67 - 70 37%
 Sat, Jan 31 182 @TX A&M Corpus Christi L 63 - 73 18%
 Mon, Feb 2 235 @UT Rio Grande Valley L 67 - 74 26%
 Sat, Feb 7 266 @SE Louisiana L 65 - 70 31%
 Mon, Feb 9 80 @McNeese St. L 62 - 80 5%
 Sat, Feb 14 245 New Orleans L 75 - 76 49%
 Mon, Feb 16 205 Nicholls St. L 71 - 73 41%
 Sat, Feb 21 276 @Northwestern St. L 68 - 72 34%
 Mon, Feb 23 321 @East Texas A&M L 70 - 71 45%
 Sat, Feb 28 108 Stephen F. Austin L 63 - 72 19%
 Mon, Mar 2 220 Lamar L 65 - 67 43%
Totals 8 - 21 6 - 16 -8 -3 C- F C -5 F D+ C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 1.4 0.5 0.0 2.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 3.0 1.4 0.2 5.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.8 3.6 2.9 0.4 7.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.9 4.8 5.2 1.0 0.0 11.8 9th
10th 0.0 1.3 6.2 7.8 2.3 0.1 17.7 10th
11th 0.3 2.8 8.4 9.3 3.0 0.2 23.9 11th
12th 0.4 2.2 6.1 9.6 7.8 2.6 0.2 0.0 29.0 12th
Total 0.4 2.2 6.4 12.5 17.4 19.0 16.6 12.0 7.8 3.7 1.4 0.5 0.1 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4
17-5
16-6
15-7
14-8
13-9 0.0%
12-10 0.0%
11-11 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4
17-5
16-6
15-7
14-8
13-9 0.1% 0.0 0.1
12-10 0.5% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 0.5
11-11 1.4% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 1.4
10-12 3.7% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 3.7
9-13 7.8% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 7.8
8-14 12.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 12.0
7-15 16.6% 16.6
6-16 19.0% 19.0
5-17 17.4% 17.4
4-18 12.5% 12.5
3-19 6.4% 6.4
2-20 2.2% 2.2
1-21 0.4% 0.4
0-22
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 15.9 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.4%